Four paths after the bombs stop
If the Trump administration sticks to its stated four- to five-week timeline and pursues a narrow military mission
centered on defanging Tehran of its long-range strike capabilities, gutting the nuclear program, and destroying its ability to harass shipping, the regime is likely to weather the storm. Sure, it will be battered, bruised, smaller, and weaker, but it will still claim victoryas all terrorist enterprises doif it is left standing. Under such a scenario, what survives will not produce a chastened, concession-ready Iran. It will be a hardened pariah state with a bunker mentality.
Read
Niall Ferguson: Could This Be the Start of World War III?A sense of humiliation rather than humility will permeate, and Tehran's deep state will emerge paranoid, vengeful, and intent on rebuilding. In a world where the regime's proxy terror network is neutered and has lost any conventional or hybrid military capabilities, interest in nuclear weapons does not diminish. It intensifies. A cornered autocracy will have every incentive to avoid eyes on anything left of its atomic enterprise or fissile material stocks and sprint toward the bomb through whatever covert pathway remains available.
It is also likely to double down at home through arrests, torture, and mass suppression,
much like Saddam Hussein's Iraq did after defeat in 1991. The nightmare scenario for U.S. policymakers and dissident Iranians is not a defeated Iran. It is a surviving Islamic Republic that will look inward la North Korea: isolated, militarized, and biding its time until Trump leaves office. If that's the outcome and the Trump administration takes a victory lap, Washington will have achieved its military aims but not any political ones.
Behnam Ben Taleblu The Free Press