303Bear said:
Redbrickbear said:
303Bear said:
Redbrickbear said:
303Bear said:
Redbrickbear said:
303Bear said:
Redbrickbear said:
303Bear said:
historian said:
It's a fact backed by statistics and the headlines almost daily.
Which statistics? The ones that say illegals are incarcerated at materially lower per capita rates than native born Americans?
https://www.cato.org/briefing-paper/illegal-immigrant-incarceration-rates-2010-2024-demographics-american-imprisonment
I think we should keep in mind that Cato is a group that is always pro-migration (legal and illegal)
But when viewing these data points we need to keep some facts in mind.
1. America does have a very high crime rate underclass. We all know this and we can all debate its origin and how to fix it. But its existence skews the data with comparing it to new arrivals.
2. The data does remind us that legal immigrants (the ones we want) have a far less crime rate than illegal immigrants.
Which is kind of the point....
[Legal immigrants have the lowest incarceration rate, at 303 per 100,000 legal immigrants in 2024. Illegal immigrants have an incarceration rate of 674 per 100,000 illegal immigrants...]
Illegals are literally more than double the incarceration rate of legal immigrants. And that is probably an undercount since its so hard to find, locate, and prosecute illegals in the country without authorization and paperwork.
This feels like you are purposefully missing/leaving out the broader point, regardless of legal immigration status, the incarceration rate is materially lower than native born Americans. Therefore, the assertion that the waive of new illegal immigrants under Biden led to a crime waive is unsupported by facts (and your point 1 further points this out, even if unintentionally).
I agree that since the USA already has a violent crime rate higher than other developed nations... that this is not more than the native rate but its not necessarily a great rate in and of itself.
That does not mean its low....something to take into consideration.
Lets compare Illegal immigrant incarceration rate (674 per 100,000) to other developed nations.
"Japan's incarceration rate is approximately 33 per 100,000 of the national population"
"Denmark's incarceration rate is 70 per 100,000 residents"
"Ireland's current prison population rate is approximately 100 per 100,000 of the national population"
That illegal immigrant rate is not great.....
Ok, fair. Also a completely different conversation that also gets unhappily into many policy issues well beyond immigration.
Its not entirely a different conversation...it touches on this topic and others.
1. We can admit that crime rates from immigrants are less than the rate of Americans.
2. While admitting that America already has a very high crime rate and its actually a extreme rate among developed countries that are our peers.
3. And that immigrant rates are therefore not that great...they are still many times higher than average rates in developed countries.
It would be like saying the average American is $100,000 in debt. While the average illegal immigrant is only $60,000 in debt. While the average Japanese is only $30,000....
Better than the average is not necessary great.
A discussion of crime and incarceration rates nation wide is vastly different than a discussion of whether or not there was a crime waive due to immigrants, which was the proposition set forth in this thread.
We yes we can be more specific.
The crime waive was not due primarily due to immigrants.
But in a place like Maine: "Maine has an overall incarceration rate of 272 per 100,000 residents"...we see that CATO data shows that both legal and illegal immigrants have rates higher than that.....
[Legal immigrants have the lowest incarceration rate, at 303 per 100,000 legal immigrants in 2024. Illegal immigrants have an incarceration rate of 674 per 100,000 illegal immigrants...]
Maine has one of, if not the lowest crime rate in the country. You are comparing that against the nation wide rate. I cannot find a reliable number on crime rate in Maine specific to immigrants, but I do note that through July 2026, ICE had arrested / detained just under 500 immigrants in Maine. Of those, 95-98% had not criminal record and I can only find one confirmed violent offender arrested.
So do we think immigrants do more or less crime based on the State they are in?
What we do know is the rate of many US States is actually very low...and in a few its very very high...skewing the numbers for the USA as a whole.
While we know immigrants are in the 303 per 100k to 674 per 100k range. (legal and illegal)
That is higher than the rate of many American States....
[According to the latest comprehensive state-by-state data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS),
23 states have a incarceration
rate lower than 303 per 100,000 residents. These include states like Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Hawaii, New York, Washington....]