Is a recession coming?

10,567 Views | 107 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Doc Holliday
GoneGirl
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BaylorBJM
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I wonder what the President thinks about this?


cinque
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This is how vetting for important jobs is done by those in the basket:

Jared Kushner found a White House economic advisor by browsing Amazon, Vanity Fair reported Saturday.

Kushner, President Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, was asked by Trump to do research on China, and turned to Amazon, the report said.
There, he found a book co-written by Peter Navarro and was struck by its title, "Death by China."

Kushner then cold-called Navarro and invited him to be an adviser to the Trump campaign, according to the report. Navarro now directs the White House National Trade Council and serves as the Assistant to the President.
When the Trump campaign brought on Navarro, he was the only economic adviser on the team and likely reinforced Trump's convictions about China's trade policies.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/328969-report-kushner-found-trump-economic-advisor-navarro-by-browsing
J.R.
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BaylorBJM said:

I wonder what the President thinks about this?



now, that is rich!
PartyBear
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Hasnt it lost about 2000 over the past 5 working days as of now?
Oldbear83
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Lefties having their fun now.

Bet their tune is different about 14 months from now.
PartyBear
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Real lefties are for tariff's and trade wars and economic isolationism.
curtpenn
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PartyBear said:

Hasnt it lost about 2000 over the past 5 working days as of now?
Not backing up the truck, but adding to a few positions here.
Doc Holliday
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Dear god people. A recession is not coming.

Long term investments (ROI) dropped momentarily lower than the short term borrowing rate of ROI because there are so many foreign investors rushing to buy long term US bonds. The negative yield curve happens when all these people want to buy bonds in the long term economy.

We didn't have enough long term bonds to meet the demand for people that wanted to buy them: that's why the return rate of interest dropped because there is no need to have an incentive to sell them off.

Our economy is so strong and superior that everyone wants to purchase dollars because it is the world's highest predicted rate of return for investment. You can't possibly spin that as a bad thing.

Recessions are defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth:

First Quarter GDP growth was 3.1%. [Beating all expectations] Second Quarter GDP growth was 2.1%. [Again, beating all expectations] and somehow the Third Quarter is suddenly going to be negative growth?

There is not a single economist who is predicting a negative Third Quarter growth rate (July, Aug, Sept., '19).


The last jobs report showed 164,000 new jobs created in July. In addition 363,000 people moved from part-time to full-time employment. Current blue-collar wage growth is in excess of 3.4%, and current overall U.S. worker income is growing at a rate exceeding 5.4%.

These growths are NEVER what we see before a recession.

The yield curve inversion has been a reliable predictor of a recession for the past 60 years. But, it doesn't say that we are in a recession, or even that one is imminent.

Historically, it has signaled that a recession is likely, 1-2 years from now. But, only if the inversion occurs and is sustained. Yesterday, it only happened briefly.

However, the media didn't invent this indicator. And the high-volume traders that drive the market didn't wait for the media to report on it. They observed it themselves, and reacted accordingly.
riflebear
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BaylorBJM said:

I wonder what the President thinks about this?



1000 back then was around a 7.5% drop

1000 this past week was around a 3.6% drop.


Come back to us when it drops over 2000 pts in 2 days, then you can mock the President for a dumb tweet.

Oldbear83
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Doc Holliday said:

Dear god people. A recession is not coming.

Long term investments (ROI) dropped momentarily lower than the short term borrowing rate of ROI because there are so many foreign investors rushing to buy long term US bonds. The negative yield curve happens when all these people want to buy bonds in the long term economy.

We didn't have enough long term bonds to meet the demand for people that wanted to buy them: that's why the return rate of interest dropped because there is no need to have an incentive to sell them off.

Our economy is so strong and superior that everyone wants to purchase dollars because it is the world's highest predicted rate of return for investment. You can't possibly spin that as a bad thing.

Recessions are defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth:

First Quarter GDP growth was 3.1%. [Beating all expectations] Second Quarter GDP growth was 2.1%. [Again, beating all expectations] and somehow the Third Quarter is suddenly going to be negative growth?

There is not a single economist who is predicting a negative Third Quarter growth rate (July, Aug, Sept., '19).


The last jobs report showed 164,000 new jobs created in July. In addition 363,000 people moved from part-time to full-time employment. Current blue-collar wage growth is in excess of 3.4%, and current overall U.S. worker income is growing at a rate exceeding 5.4%.

These growths are NEVER what we see before a recession.

The yield curve inversion has been a reliable predictor of a recession for the past 60 years. But, it doesn't say that we are in a recession, or even that one is imminent.

Historically, it has signaled that a recession is likely, 1-2 years from now. But, only if the inversion occurs and is sustained. Yesterday, it only happened briefly.

However, the media didn't invent this indicator. And the high-volume traders that drive the market didn't wait for the media to report on it. They observed it themselves, and reacted accordingly.
Nope. They found one possible indicator, and they are going to clutch it like they did Bob Mueller ... well, before he finished his report, anyway.
blackie
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Quote:

Nope. They found one possible indicator, and they are going to clutch it like they did Bob Mueller ... well, before he finished his report, anyway.
Don't make everything political. This indicator was around before Trump ever thought about running for President. It is a standard indicator that the markets pay attention to. When it inverts it is a concern regardless of who is in the White House. Trump is playing with fire. If he wins (as judged by someone not named "Trump") he can boast till the cows come home. If it all turns south Trump will once again be a private citizen and we will all suffer the consequences of his games. The global economy is headed in the wrong direction. The US is no longer immune. It will eventually be imported. Already our numbers are going down, not up.

The bond markets are way smarter than anyone in the White House or on main street.
Oldbear83
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blackie said:

Quote:

Nope. They found one possible indicator, and they are going to clutch it like they did Bob Mueller ... well, before he finished his report, anyway.
Don't make everything political. This indicator was around before Trump ever thought about running for President. It is a standard indicator that the markets pay attention to. When it inverts it is a concern regardless of who is in the White House. Trump is playing with fire. If he wins (as judged by someone not named "Trump") he can boast till the cows come home. If it all turns south Trump will once again be a private citizen and we will all suffer the consequences of his games. The global economy is headed in the wrong direction. The US is no longer immune. It will eventually be imported. Already our numbers are going down, not up.

The bond markets are way smarter than anyone in the White House or on main street.
I'm not saying there won't be a recession, but there are a lot of factors which indicate this may be a mild one, and one which hits about 3-4 months after the election.

The claim that 'Trump is playing with fire' assumes he is only concerned with politics, when I see him playing the long game, doing what is necessary with China.

As for the 'global economy', there is not one monolithic 'global economy', never has been and never will be. Different parts of the world have different conditions, different resources, different histories, and while a really bad event can affect many of them, there are always winners and losers from each major event.

In any case, anyone cheering for a recession in the US is a ghoul, who deserves to be slammed hard for their callous disregard for the millions affected by such an event.
GoneGirl
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Doc Holliday said:

Dear god people. A recession is not coming.

Long term investments (ROI) dropped momentarily lower than the short term borrowing rate of ROI because there are so many foreign investors rushing to buy long term US bonds. The negative yield curve happens when all these people want to buy bonds in the long term economy.

We didn't have enough long term bonds to meet the demand for people that wanted to buy them: that's why the return rate of interest dropped because there is no need to have an incentive to sell them off.

Our economy is so strong and superior that everyone wants to purchase dollars because it is the world's highest predicted rate of return for investment. You can't possibly spin that as a bad thing.

Recessions are defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth:

First Quarter GDP growth was 3.1%. [Beating all expectations] Second Quarter GDP growth was 2.1%. [Again, beating all expectations] and somehow the Third Quarter is suddenly going to be negative growth?

There is not a single economist who is predicting a negative Third Quarter growth rate (July, Aug, Sept., '19).


The last jobs report showed 164,000 new jobs created in July. In addition 363,000 people moved from part-time to full-time employment. Current blue-collar wage growth is in excess of 3.4%, and current overall U.S. worker income is growing at a rate exceeding 5.4%.

These growths are NEVER what we see before a recession.

The yield curve inversion has been a reliable predictor of a recession for the past 60 years. But, it doesn't say that we are in a recession, or even that one is imminent.

Historically, it has signaled that a recession is likely, 1-2 years from now. But, only if the inversion occurs and is sustained. Yesterday, it only happened briefly.

However, the media didn't invent this indicator. And the high-volume traders that drive the market didn't wait for the media to report on it. They observed it themselves, and reacted accordingly.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=thou%20doth%20protest%20too%20much
Doc Holliday
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TIL: Urban Dictionary "defintions" are a legit retort to statistics and logic.
GoneGirl
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Doc Holliday said:

TIL: Urban Dictionary "defintions" are a legit retort to statistics and logic.
No, but they are a legit retort to you.
Doc Holliday
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Jinx 2 said:

Doc Holliday said:

TIL: Urban Dictionary "defintions" are a legit retort to statistics and logic.
No, but they are a legit retort to you.
This isn't about me. It's about the economy.

You either tell me WHY I am wrong or you have no argument. End of story.
MoneyBear
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Bond yields are not as connected to the market as they were 20 or even 10 years ago. The Fed has quadrupled the size of its balance sheet due to quantitative easing and is now fiddling directly with rates in an effort to control a fire they started in an attempt to correct a market crash.

We currently have roughly 1.6 Trillion in excess reserves in banks which translates to a corresponding balance of treasuries on the Fed's balance sheet. They had previously been allowing that debt to VERY slowly mature but announced on 7/31 that they would stop in September. Furthermore, they have deviated from their original mandates (steady employment, inflation, and dollar) via monetary policy and have started paying banks for reserves and adjusting rates based on anticipated market volatility. Just go look at Powell's comments from 2 weeks ago. This rate cut was based on what might happen later this year and central bank action abroad, not in response to any economic issues here in the US.

The Fed was never intended to hold as many of the broader economic cards as they currently do and the reaction of the market indices shows that investors are far too focused on the Fed as well.

An inverted yield curve has historically indicated a looming recession. I'd argue that we are in a unique scenario where market forces have less to do with this inversion than the Fed itself as the largest holder of treasuries and the ones who are constantly tinkering with the rates. A recession will inevitably come but it won't be because of or even indicated by this inversion...it isn't based on fundamentals in the first place.
Sic'em
BuGrad99
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PartyBear said:

Real lefties are for tariff's and trade wars and economic isolationism.

So you are saying Donald Trump is a liberal?
Florda_mike
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tommie said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/


Democrats are praying for recession or anything that'll stop the Trump machine

LMAO on Tom with this OP
Mitch Blood Green
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Florda_mike said:

tommie said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/


Democrats are praying for recession or anything that'll stop the Trump machine

LMAO on Tom with this OP


Trump will stop his own train. He's a train wreck that'll blame others for the crash he's causing.
No Longer Gold
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J.R. said:

PartyBear said:

J.R. said:

Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.


Trump did cave yesterday. However China did not respond in kind with their own "nevermind forget what we said last week". To my knowledge they have not said ok we will be your biggest ag customer again. Trump started a trade war then backed off but the attacked country says fine call it off on your end we will still wage the war against you that you started.
Trumps is in absolute panic mode. He took some ridiculous shots at the "independent FED" today via Twatter. He doesn't seem to understand that he is partly responsible for this because of his Tariff War. The business community is in the process of turning on him and his lack of economic knowledge. Farmers are getting crushed. Anyone need any Soybeans? Just ask Cisco how it working for them. Sales in China down 25% per their earnings call today. Furthermore, since Trumps blinked yesterday, why in the hell would Ghina want to give Trumps anything? Nah, they will just wait him out till 2020.


I hope that you are young. Just finished your mba, and just using big words you've recently learned, but have no real world knowledge about.

Otherwise, you're just a blow hard idiot that has no f'ing clue what you're talking about.
No Longer Gold
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riflebear said:

BaylorBJM said:

I wonder what the President thinks about this?



1000 back then was around a 7.5% drop

1000 this past week was around a 3.6% drop.


Come back to us when it drops over 2000 pts in 2 days, then you can mock the President for a dumb tweet.




Frustrating, but don't even try...leftists don't understand the difference, or relationship, between integers and percentages.

They show that in economic talk, race talk, immigration talk, all of it. It's pretty amusing.
Florda_mike
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tommie said:

Florda_mike said:

tommie said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/


Democrats are praying for recession or anything that'll stop the Trump machine

LMAO on Tom with this OP


Trump will stop his own train. He's a train wreck that'll blame others for the crash he's causing.


Wake up wake up

You're dreaming again
Florda_mike
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DubDub said:

J.R. said:

PartyBear said:

J.R. said:

Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.


Trump did cave yesterday. However China did not respond in kind with their own "nevermind forget what we said last week". To my knowledge they have not said ok we will be your biggest ag customer again. Trump started a trade war then backed off but the attacked country says fine call it off on your end we will still wage the war against you that you started.
Trumps is in absolute panic mode. He took some ridiculous shots at the "independent FED" today via Twatter. He doesn't seem to understand that he is partly responsible for this because of his Tariff War. The business community is in the process of turning on him and his lack of economic knowledge. Farmers are getting crushed. Anyone need any Soybeans? Just ask Cisco how it working for them. Sales in China down 25% per their earnings call today. Furthermore, since Trumps blinked yesterday, why in the hell would Ghina want to give Trumps anything? Nah, they will just wait him out till 2020.


I hope that you are young. Just finished your mba, and just using big words you've recently learned, but have no real world knowledge about.

Otherwise, you're just a blow hard idiot that has no f'ing clue what you're talking about.


JR is an act and massive anti Trump like Tommie and others babies here
Oldbear83
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tommie said:

Florda_mike said:

tommie said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/


Democrats are praying for recession or anything that'll stop the Trump machine

LMAO on Tom with this OP


Trump will stop his own train. He's a train wreck that'll blame others for the crash he's causing.
I read/heard that in 2016, too.
BaylorBJM
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So, is the consensus in this thread a recession is not coming in the next 15 months?
Oldbear83
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BaylorBJM said:

So, is the consensus in this thread a recession is not coming in the next 15 months?
Too soon to know if a recession is coming in 15 months. I'd guess 18-24 months is more likely.

And the timing is important.
Sam Lowry
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J.R. said:

Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
Tariffs aren't killing anything. They've had minimal effect outside of construction and maybe a couple of other industries.
xiledinok
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Farming as well. Cheap oil too.
blackie
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My comment about Trump playing with fire has nothing to do with politics. He is playing a game with an entity (China) that can essentially do what it wants when it wants. If there is suffering to the masses, well, who there in power cares? It's not like they will not be re-elected. Once tariffs start showing up in the things that Walmart shoppers pay the situation will be a whole lot more front and center. On that matter, Trump did cave to his advisers and economists to delay that part of the tariff until December as to not effect the Christmas shopping season. That, in itself tells the story that even Trump knows such tariffs will hit the average American consumer, many of whom are scraping by now.

Whether he continues to cave or double down as that time nears, nobody knows......probably not even him. He is very close to boxing himself into a corner where he has to relent (which he won't) or force the American consumer into seeing how they will bear the brunt of much of this. The Chinese probably may well bet on a different occupant in the White House come 2021 that they can deal with on more of their own terms.
Osodecentx
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PartyBear said:

J.R. said:

Anyone rooting for a recession is foolish. I certainly don't. I have entirely too much at stake for that non-sense. I am merely pointing out that a recession seems much more likely. I also mentioned as just an aside, that if the market tanks, folks will not put up with the Trumps non-sense.
Except on this board where you can already see any potential recession is already Obama's fault.
Is the rising market Trump's?

Was the Great Recession Bush's fault?

No to both (maybe marginally).
Osodecentx
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BaylorBJM said:

So, is the consensus in this thread a recession is not coming in the next 15 months?
Who knows? I know there will be a Second Coming. I'll let fools predict the date

I know a recession is coming. It's the business cycle
Oldbear83
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blackie said:

My comment about Trump playing with fire has nothing to do with politics. He is playing a game with an entity (China) that can essentially do what it wants when it wants. If there is suffering to the masses, well, who there in power cares? It's not like they will not be re-elected. Once tariffs start showing up in the things that Walmart shoppers pay the situation will be a whole lot more front and center. On that matter, Trump did cave to his advisers and economists to delay that part of the tariff until December as to not effect the Christmas shopping season. That, in itself tells the story that even Trump knows such tariffs will hit the average American consumer, many of whom are scraping by now.

Whether he continues to cave or double down as that time nears, nobody knows......probably not even him. He is very close to boxing himself into a corner where he has to relent (which he won't) or force the American consumer into seeing how they will bear the brunt of much of this. The Chinese probably may well bet on a different occupant in the White House come 2021 that they can deal with on more of their own terms.
Your comment plays into a fiction.

China is not all-powerful, they cannot simply do as they please.

For one thing, China has deep cultural and political divisions between their provinces. The protests in Hong Kong, mistrust of government in Shenzhen, the complaints about distribution of resources between coastal and inland provinces are all examples of internal issues China must address, and the economic consequences of the trade war are absolutely going to affect these relationships and disputes.

For another thing, anytime China works to restrict imports from the US, they will usually have to get the product another way, which would most likely benefit other Asian countries and reduce China's influence.

For still another reason, Russia has lost influence to China in a number of regions, especially Africa and the Middle East. China needs to improve its relationship with the US to avoid losing those gains.

Winter will hurt China far more than they are seeing now. Beijing knows this, so they are playing hardball now in hopes they can bluff their way out of facing a tough winter. Trump's advisers have certainly laid out what to expect between now and December.
Florda_mike
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BaylorBJM said:

So, is the consensus in this thread a recession is not coming in the next 15 months?


Idk but I do know you and your liberal buddies are praying for something to keep Trump from getting 4 more years to MAGA

Democrat Socialist Libtards would throw the largest silent party in the history of the world if Trump died in any way
 
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