now, that is rich!BaylorBJM said:
I wonder what the President thinks about this?
Not backing up the truck, but adding to a few positions here.PartyBear said:
Hasnt it lost about 2000 over the past 5 working days as of now?
1000 back then was around a 7.5% dropBaylorBJM said:
I wonder what the President thinks about this?
Nope. They found one possible indicator, and they are going to clutch it like they did Bob Mueller ... well, before he finished his report, anyway.Doc Holliday said:
Dear god people. A recession is not coming.
Long term investments (ROI) dropped momentarily lower than the short term borrowing rate of ROI because there are so many foreign investors rushing to buy long term US bonds. The negative yield curve happens when all these people want to buy bonds in the long term economy.
We didn't have enough long term bonds to meet the demand for people that wanted to buy them: that's why the return rate of interest dropped because there is no need to have an incentive to sell them off.
Our economy is so strong and superior that everyone wants to purchase dollars because it is the world's highest predicted rate of return for investment. You can't possibly spin that as a bad thing.
Recessions are defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth:
First Quarter GDP growth was 3.1%. [Beating all expectations] Second Quarter GDP growth was 2.1%. [Again, beating all expectations] and somehow the Third Quarter is suddenly going to be negative growth?
There is not a single economist who is predicting a negative Third Quarter growth rate (July, Aug, Sept., '19).
The last jobs report showed 164,000 new jobs created in July. In addition 363,000 people moved from part-time to full-time employment. Current blue-collar wage growth is in excess of 3.4%, and current overall U.S. worker income is growing at a rate exceeding 5.4%.
These growths are NEVER what we see before a recession.
The yield curve inversion has been a reliable predictor of a recession for the past 60 years. But, it doesn't say that we are in a recession, or even that one is imminent.
Historically, it has signaled that a recession is likely, 1-2 years from now. But, only if the inversion occurs and is sustained. Yesterday, it only happened briefly.
However, the media didn't invent this indicator. And the high-volume traders that drive the market didn't wait for the media to report on it. They observed it themselves, and reacted accordingly.
Don't make everything political. This indicator was around before Trump ever thought about running for President. It is a standard indicator that the markets pay attention to. When it inverts it is a concern regardless of who is in the White House. Trump is playing with fire. If he wins (as judged by someone not named "Trump") he can boast till the cows come home. If it all turns south Trump will once again be a private citizen and we will all suffer the consequences of his games. The global economy is headed in the wrong direction. The US is no longer immune. It will eventually be imported. Already our numbers are going down, not up.Quote:
Nope. They found one possible indicator, and they are going to clutch it like they did Bob Mueller ... well, before he finished his report, anyway.
I'm not saying there won't be a recession, but there are a lot of factors which indicate this may be a mild one, and one which hits about 3-4 months after the election.blackie said:Don't make everything political. This indicator was around before Trump ever thought about running for President. It is a standard indicator that the markets pay attention to. When it inverts it is a concern regardless of who is in the White House. Trump is playing with fire. If he wins (as judged by someone not named "Trump") he can boast till the cows come home. If it all turns south Trump will once again be a private citizen and we will all suffer the consequences of his games. The global economy is headed in the wrong direction. The US is no longer immune. It will eventually be imported. Already our numbers are going down, not up.Quote:
Nope. They found one possible indicator, and they are going to clutch it like they did Bob Mueller ... well, before he finished his report, anyway.
The bond markets are way smarter than anyone in the White House or on main street.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=thou%20doth%20protest%20too%20muchDoc Holliday said:
Dear god people. A recession is not coming.
Long term investments (ROI) dropped momentarily lower than the short term borrowing rate of ROI because there are so many foreign investors rushing to buy long term US bonds. The negative yield curve happens when all these people want to buy bonds in the long term economy.
We didn't have enough long term bonds to meet the demand for people that wanted to buy them: that's why the return rate of interest dropped because there is no need to have an incentive to sell them off.
Our economy is so strong and superior that everyone wants to purchase dollars because it is the world's highest predicted rate of return for investment. You can't possibly spin that as a bad thing.
Recessions are defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth:
First Quarter GDP growth was 3.1%. [Beating all expectations] Second Quarter GDP growth was 2.1%. [Again, beating all expectations] and somehow the Third Quarter is suddenly going to be negative growth?
There is not a single economist who is predicting a negative Third Quarter growth rate (July, Aug, Sept., '19).
The last jobs report showed 164,000 new jobs created in July. In addition 363,000 people moved from part-time to full-time employment. Current blue-collar wage growth is in excess of 3.4%, and current overall U.S. worker income is growing at a rate exceeding 5.4%.
These growths are NEVER what we see before a recession.
The yield curve inversion has been a reliable predictor of a recession for the past 60 years. But, it doesn't say that we are in a recession, or even that one is imminent.
Historically, it has signaled that a recession is likely, 1-2 years from now. But, only if the inversion occurs and is sustained. Yesterday, it only happened briefly.
However, the media didn't invent this indicator. And the high-volume traders that drive the market didn't wait for the media to report on it. They observed it themselves, and reacted accordingly.
No, but they are a legit retort to you.Doc Holliday said:
TIL: Urban Dictionary "defintions" are a legit retort to statistics and logic.
This isn't about me. It's about the economy.Jinx 2 said:No, but they are a legit retort to you.Doc Holliday said:
TIL: Urban Dictionary "defintions" are a legit retort to statistics and logic.
PartyBear said:
Real lefties are for tariff's and trade wars and economic isolationism.
tommie said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/
Florda_mike said:tommie said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/
Democrats are praying for recession or anything that'll stop the Trump machine
LMAO on Tom with this OP
J.R. said:Trumps is in absolute panic mode. He took some ridiculous shots at the "independent FED" today via Twatter. He doesn't seem to understand that he is partly responsible for this because of his Tariff War. The business community is in the process of turning on him and his lack of economic knowledge. Farmers are getting crushed. Anyone need any Soybeans? Just ask Cisco how it working for them. Sales in China down 25% per their earnings call today. Furthermore, since Trumps blinked yesterday, why in the hell would Ghina want to give Trumps anything? Nah, they will just wait him out till 2020.PartyBear said:J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
Trump did cave yesterday. However China did not respond in kind with their own "nevermind forget what we said last week". To my knowledge they have not said ok we will be your biggest ag customer again. Trump started a trade war then backed off but the attacked country says fine call it off on your end we will still wage the war against you that you started.
riflebear said:1000 back then was around a 7.5% dropBaylorBJM said:
I wonder what the President thinks about this?
1000 this past week was around a 3.6% drop.
Come back to us when it drops over 2000 pts in 2 days, then you can mock the President for a dumb tweet.
tommie said:Florda_mike said:tommie said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/
Democrats are praying for recession or anything that'll stop the Trump machine
LMAO on Tom with this OP
Trump will stop his own train. He's a train wreck that'll blame others for the crash he's causing.
DubDub said:J.R. said:Trumps is in absolute panic mode. He took some ridiculous shots at the "independent FED" today via Twatter. He doesn't seem to understand that he is partly responsible for this because of his Tariff War. The business community is in the process of turning on him and his lack of economic knowledge. Farmers are getting crushed. Anyone need any Soybeans? Just ask Cisco how it working for them. Sales in China down 25% per their earnings call today. Furthermore, since Trumps blinked yesterday, why in the hell would Ghina want to give Trumps anything? Nah, they will just wait him out till 2020.PartyBear said:J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
Trump did cave yesterday. However China did not respond in kind with their own "nevermind forget what we said last week". To my knowledge they have not said ok we will be your biggest ag customer again. Trump started a trade war then backed off but the attacked country says fine call it off on your end we will still wage the war against you that you started.
I hope that you are young. Just finished your mba, and just using big words you've recently learned, but have no real world knowledge about.
Otherwise, you're just a blow hard idiot that has no f'ing clue what you're talking about.
I read/heard that in 2016, too.tommie said:Florda_mike said:tommie said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/13/us-businesses-are-taking-down-job-listings-trumps-trade-war-grows/
Democrats are praying for recession or anything that'll stop the Trump machine
LMAO on Tom with this OP
Trump will stop his own train. He's a train wreck that'll blame others for the crash he's causing.
Too soon to know if a recession is coming in 15 months. I'd guess 18-24 months is more likely.BaylorBJM said:
So, is the consensus in this thread a recession is not coming in the next 15 months?
Tariffs aren't killing anything. They've had minimal effect outside of construction and maybe a couple of other industries.J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
Is the rising market Trump's?PartyBear said:Except on this board where you can already see any potential recession is already Obama's fault.J.R. said:
Anyone rooting for a recession is foolish. I certainly don't. I have entirely too much at stake for that non-sense. I am merely pointing out that a recession seems much more likely. I also mentioned as just an aside, that if the market tanks, folks will not put up with the Trumps non-sense.
Who knows? I know there will be a Second Coming. I'll let fools predict the dateBaylorBJM said:
So, is the consensus in this thread a recession is not coming in the next 15 months?
Your comment plays into a fiction.blackie said:
My comment about Trump playing with fire has nothing to do with politics. He is playing a game with an entity (China) that can essentially do what it wants when it wants. If there is suffering to the masses, well, who there in power cares? It's not like they will not be re-elected. Once tariffs start showing up in the things that Walmart shoppers pay the situation will be a whole lot more front and center. On that matter, Trump did cave to his advisers and economists to delay that part of the tariff until December as to not effect the Christmas shopping season. That, in itself tells the story that even Trump knows such tariffs will hit the average American consumer, many of whom are scraping by now.
Whether he continues to cave or double down as that time nears, nobody knows......probably not even him. He is very close to boxing himself into a corner where he has to relent (which he won't) or force the American consumer into seeing how they will bear the brunt of much of this. The Chinese probably may well bet on a different occupant in the White House come 2021 that they can deal with on more of their own terms.
BaylorBJM said:
So, is the consensus in this thread a recession is not coming in the next 15 months?