Is a recession coming?

10,569 Views | 107 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Doc Holliday
Doc Holliday
How long do you want to ignore this user?
China's currency devaluation makes their exports cheaper; however, at the same time it makes any of their imports more expensive. As a consequence China buys less and that now exhibits in lower purchases of German stuff. See how that happens?

So yeah, the ramifications for Merkel's German economy -twice as bad as originally forecast- are based on China fighting Trump. The fact that China is bleeding cash, and has simultaneously dropped the value of their currency, means China can't buy stuff.

All of those nations who were counting on Chinese purchases are now going bananas. This is why the multinationals blame Donald Trump and to make matters even worse the U.S. economy is thriving, while they watch from the sidelines. It's a delicious dynamic.

For more than three decades global economies have grown by removing wealth from the United States. The U.S. multinationals have countered the economic arguments by claiming those global economies have purchased U.S. treasuries; but that means we trade our current wealth for future debt.

President Trump has reversed this dynamic. We are repatriating our national wealth through new trade policies, and will pay for any incurred foreign debt by expanding our own economy and controlling our own destiny.
HuMcK
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Unemployment is low (not as low as originally reported though since 500,000 jobs managed to just "dissappear" after 2018 was revised), wages are rising (as expected once a lower threshold of unemployment was reached and employers had to get more competitive with pay), but business investment and manufacturing both contracted last quarter, and we are on pace for just 2% growth this year (lower than Canada, another worrying sign) after a massive tax cut. Those last 2 items are flashing yellow warning signs to any objective observer, and an escalating trade war isn't going to make things any easier. What's more, none of the GDP targets Trump promised with the tax cut have materialized, not even close, and once upon a time the word of POTUS used to count for something.
Doc Holliday
How long do you want to ignore this user?
HuMcK said:

Unemployment is low (not as low as originally reported though since 500,000 jobs managed to just "dissappear" after 2018 was revised), wages are rising (as expected once a lower threshold of unemployment was reached and employers had to get more competitive with pay), but business investment and manufacturing both contracted last quarter, and we are on pace for just 2% growth this year after a massive tax cut. Those last 2 items are flashing yellow warning signs to any objective observer, and an escalating trade war isn't going to make things any easier. What's more, none of the GDP targets Trump promised with the tax cut have materialized, not even close, and once upon a time the word of POTUS used to count for something.
We continue to produce record tax revenue despite the tax cuts just FYI.
The Dow has also gained 1300 points since August 23 when the Dems and MSM were predicting/hoping for a recession. Another false narrative destroyed.

Right now global supply chains are in a state of flux as manufacturers are moving production based on tariffs and geopolitical issues.

As the component manufacturing is moving from one place to another; and as manufacturers evaluate their supply chain stability; there are going to be swings in purchase orders based on shifts in production facilities.

This is an expected dynamic that is necessary if President Trump is to succeed in pressuring product manufacturers to move operations.

The internal U.S. economy is very strong. It's the U.S. companies, multinationals, that rely on external operations for their end-product production income that are tentatively positioned.

Main Street is thriving; Wall Street is in flux. This is the exact opposite of two prior decades where Wall Street was thriving and Main Street was in flux.

You are sucking on the teet of Wall street and giving the middle finger to the middle class. You don't understand what's being done here.
Doc Holliday
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And PLEASE explain to me how Democrats aren't going to destroy the economy and that they're a better economic choice.

$200 trillion in proposed spending. Tax rates doubled.

You're a joke if you think the alternative to Trump is better.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.