Oldbear83 said:

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I found an interesting examination about why the number of cases in each state varies according to whom you ask, and a comparison of confirmed cases to people tested.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/24/coronavirus-cases-in-texas-why-the-numbers-are-different-everywhere/

Information can be your friend.

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Yay for liberal news outlets, eh.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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PartyBear said:

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Since that last post Disney and Universal have announced they will not reopen when they had originally planned.

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Have paid my penance as a father and a husband and been to both DisneyLand and Disney World. Once is enough. At least in this lifetime, anyway.

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Hahaha

New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity

https://www.yahoo.com/news/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html

Quote:

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A model predicting the progression of the novel coronavirus pandemic produced by researchers at Imperial College London set off alarms across the world and was a major factor in several governments' decisions to lock things down. But a new model from Oxford University is challenging its accuracy, the Financial Times reports.

The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.

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Hope this is true, the key thing has always been figuring out how big the denominator really is. Still shows we've had no control of the disease, especially, if it has progressed this far without even knowing about it.

Its still pretty clear we'll have to deal with at lease one peak wave which we're probably in the midst of right now, but that means follow up waves won't be as severe. We may have gotten lucky and dodged a bullet this time.

quash said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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I found an interesting examination about why the number of cases in each state varies according to whom you ask, and a comparison of confirmed cases to people tested.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/24/coronavirus-cases-in-texas-why-the-numbers-are-different-everywhere/

Information can be your friend.

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Yay for liberal news outlets, eh.

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Yay for any useful information. Not so much for propaganda, whether it comes from right or left.

Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

Quote:

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This is basically a circular argument: If the disease is not particularly severe then that means a larger percentage of the population must have already have been infected to yield the observed number of deaths. On the other hand, if the disease risk is severe then the observed deaths suggest that very few people must currently be infected.

The researchers suggest that the way to test their model is to begin an immediate campaign of population screening using serology tests for coronavirus antibodies. If a significant proportion of people tested positive for exposure to the virus, that would confirm their model's projections. This would mean that the disease is relatively mild for the vast majority of people and substantial herd immunity has already been established. If few people test positive, then that would mean the worst of the epidemic still lies ahead.

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Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 68,211
Total deaths: 1,027

This guys sounds excited about the news...wouldn't this be bad news for everyone?

Jack Bauer said:

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This guys sounds excited about the news...wouldn't this be bad news for everyone?

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Humm would China government want more Americans to die and be spreading fake news?

If I get the corona give me hydroxychloroquine

ATL Bear said:

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Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 11,192 new cases. 164 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 66,048
Total deaths: 944

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I've been using the link below, which seems to update a tick faster than some others. Really unnerving.

13,250 new cases today, 235 new deaths

68,597 total cases
1,035 deaths

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Oldbear83 said:

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Cuomo already claimed COVID-19 first showed up in New York. That is not true, as we know the first US cases appeared in Washington, on the West coast. Cuomo has made a number of other incorrect claims, which I don't jump on him for since he is under a great deal of stress.

That does not mean we should take his statements as gospel.

New York has very different demographics, resources, geography, weather and challenges from Italy. It's silly to pretend otherwise.

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I've never heard him claim NY was the first case. Can you give a reference?

LTbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 11,192 new cases. 164 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 66,048
Total deaths: 944

---

I've been using the link below, which seems to update a tick faster than some others. Really unnerving.

13,250 new cases today, 235 new deaths

68,597 total cases
1,035 deaths

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

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The one I use is at the same, but the 24 hr cycle ends at 12 GMT (8 pm EST). The extra 2k will likely roll to next 24 hr cycle.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Agencies do data dumps at various times.

TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Cuomo already claimed COVID-19 first showed up in New York. That is not true, as we know the first US cases appeared in Washington, on the West coast. Cuomo has made a number of other incorrect claims, which I don't jump on him for since he is under a great deal of stress.

That does not mean we should take his statements as gospel.

New York has very different demographics, resources, geography, weather and challenges from Italy. It's silly to pretend otherwise.

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I've never heard him claim NY was the first case. Can you give a reference?

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I heard it on Cuomo's press conference earlier this week, on Tuesday. Let's see if I can find a link:



Here's one:

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-photos-rush-transcript-amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-1

PartyBear said:

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The idiotic Governor of Mississippi issued an executive order attempting to override local shelter in place orders. Hopefully Mayors and County leaders in areas where there is one say essentially "fu it's still in effect".

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Good lord

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/taiwan-military-stages-exercise-fight-mock-invasion

Hate to raise this possibility, but does China make a play for Taiwan while we're incapacitated? Russia in the Baltics?

jupiter said:

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/taiwan-military-stages-exercise-fight-mock-invasion

Hate to raise this possibility, but does China make a play for Taiwan while we're incapacitated? Russia in the Baltics?

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China already making a play for disputed islands.

jupiter said:

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/taiwan-military-stages-exercise-fight-mock-invasion

Hate to raise this possibility, but does China make a play for Taiwan while we're incapacitated? Russia in the Baltics?

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Nope. For one thing, while China is playing the 'we're all fine now, nothing to see here' card, the PRC is still fighting the spread of the virus and while young people are less at risk than older people, the military is a group of men who live and work in dense proximity - an outbreak in the military would be catastrophic, and there's no guarantee the PLA would be immune.

Also, the PRC knows that Taiwan's military has not been degraded by the virus, and is a big problem if the PRC went after the island the problems of taking the island would be very difficult - the Chinese got into a gun battle some years back with Vietnam over the Spratly islands, and it took two battalions of PLA troops to dislodge a handful of 'pirates' from Vietnam who were holding an island China wanted. Invading Taiwan would properly be called 'possible but not feasible',and that's not even discussing the garrison requirements.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

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In a market you assume buyers and sellers will act rationally. When they do supply meets demand at a reasonable price. Irrational hoarding disrupted supply. It's like the grocers have been saying: just buy what you need and we'll truck in new supplies regularly.

quash said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

---

In a market you assume buyers and sellers will act rationally. When they do supply meets demand at a reasonable price. Irrational hoarding disrupted supply. It's like the grocers have been saying: just buy what you need and we'll truck in new supplies regularly.

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HEB's been doing a great job of that, Took my daughter shopping for groceries 2 days before my wife got home, no milk, eggs or bread to be found. Next day HEB had them all in stock.

Aside from the convenience, the constant restock sends a clear message that at least some parts of the economy are under control.

jupiter said:

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/taiwan-military-stages-exercise-fight-mock-invasion

Hate to raise this possibility, but does China make a play for Taiwan while we're incapacitated? Russia in the Baltics?

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We'd like nothing better then a war to reignite the economy. Just kidding. Sorta.

For those scoring at home, an important notice from the CDC:

"Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC's numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

quash said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

---

In a market you assume buyers and sellers will act rationally. When they do supply meets demand at a reasonable price. Irrational hoarding disrupted supply. It's like the grocers have been saying: just buy what you need and we'll truck in new supplies regularly.

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If you don't hoard, it means more trips to the grocery store and more possible exposure to the virus. Can't blame shoppers for getting enough for three weeks instead of one. C

Jack and DP said:

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quash said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

---

In a market you assume buyers and sellers will act rationally. When they do supply meets demand at a reasonable price. Irrational hoarding disrupted supply. It's like the grocers have been saying: just buy what you need and we'll truck in new supplies regularly.

---

If you don't hoard, it means more trips to the grocery store and more possible exposure to the virus. Can't blame shoppers for getting enough for three weeks instead of one. C

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Good for you. Not so good for the folks who have to go every day to find what is no longer in stock thanks to hoarding.

Jack and DP said:

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quash said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

---

In a market you assume buyers and sellers will act rationally. When they do supply meets demand at a reasonable price. Irrational hoarding disrupted supply. It's like the grocers have been saying: just buy what you need and we'll truck in new supplies regularly.

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If you don't hoard, it means more trips to the grocery store and more possible exposure to the virus. Can't blame shoppers for getting enough for three weeks instead of one. C

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Well, that depends on what you get. Buying 6 months of toilet paper is hard to justify, and buying milk and eggs far beyond what you can use in the next couple weeks just makes for waste.

Hoarding is emotional, not rational, even though the people who do it imagine they are just 'planning ahead'.

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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jupiter said:

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/taiwan-military-stages-exercise-fight-mock-invasion

Hate to raise this possibility, but does China make a play for Taiwan while we're incapacitated? Russia in the Baltics?

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We'd like nothing better then a war to reignite the economy. Just kidding. Sorta.

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Easier to just break windows #ecohumor

Keyser Soze said:

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Aliceinbubbleland said:

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jupiter said:

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/taiwan-military-stages-exercise-fight-mock-invasion

Hate to raise this possibility, but does China make a play for Taiwan while we're incapacitated? Russia in the Baltics?

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We'd like nothing better then a war to reignite the economy. Just kidding. Sorta.

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Easier to just break windows #ecohumor

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Ha!

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

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Hopefully, those who have heart attacks from eating 'Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef' won't face triage at a Covid-19 overwhelmed hospital.

TexasScientist said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

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Hopefully, those who have heart attacks from eating 'Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef' won't face triage at a Covid-19 overwhelmed hospital.

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Enjoy your veggies and green tea, Sir. And thank you for leaving more meat for the rest of us carnivores.

Oldbear83 said:

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TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Cuomo already claimed COVID-19 first showed up in New York. That is not true, as we know the first US cases appeared in Washington, on the West coast. Cuomo has made a number of other incorrect claims, which I don't jump on him for since he is under a great deal of stress.

That does not mean we should take his statements as gospel.

New York has very different demographics, resources, geography, weather and challenges from Italy. It's silly to pretend otherwise.

---

I've never heard him claim NY was the first case. Can you give a reference?

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I heard it on Cuomo's press conference earlier this week, on Tuesday. Let's see if I can find a link:



Here's one:

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-photos-rush-transcript-amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-1

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You're out of context. He's talking about NY is the first faced with the hospitals being overwhelmed without the capacity and ability to meet the demand on the hopsitals.

TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Cuomo already claimed COVID-19 first showed up in New York. That is not true, as we know the first US cases appeared in Washington, on the West coast. Cuomo has made a number of other incorrect claims, which I don't jump on him for since he is under a great deal of stress.

That does not mean we should take his statements as gospel.

New York has very different demographics, resources, geography, weather and challenges from Italy. It's silly to pretend otherwise.

---

I've never heard him claim NY was the first case. Can you give a reference?

---

I heard it on Cuomo's press conference earlier this week, on Tuesday. Let's see if I can find a link:



Here's one:

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-photos-rush-transcript-amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-1

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You're out of context. He's talking about NY is the first faced with the hospitals being overwhelmed without the capacity and ability to meet the demand on the hopsitals.

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Not what he really said, but I understand why you take it that way.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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TexasScientist said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Was at the Live Oak (San Antonio) HEB this afternoon and they had plenty of food on the shelves! Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef. Perhaps the hoarding is subsiding. Life is good!

---

Hopefully, those who have heart attacks from eating 'Plenty of chicken, steaks, pork, and ground beef' won't face triage at a Covid-19 overwhelmed hospital.

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Enjoy your veggies and green tea, Sir. And thank you for leaving more meat for the rest of us carnivores.

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De nada!