It appears that the death rate here is running at about 1.6% thus far based on confirmed cases and the death number.

Florda_mike said:

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Buddha Bear said:

---

Florda_mike said:

---

BaylorTaxman said:

---

Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

We're any given Hydroxychloroquine? No?

Why not???

It's working

---

Well, one died of hydroxychoroquine overdose by self medicating. Whether we believe the media or not on why he did that is up to each of I guess.

---

You're dishonest again

He self prescribed fishbowl chloroquine and ODed

Doctor prescribed Hydroxychloroquine is reportedly working 100% in any reported study

Your side doesn't want a cure

"Let it rain, let it rain famine on the people" says the democrat

---

Are you suggesting there is evidence without doubt of a cure/antidote and doctors are ignoring it?

I posted this as a separate thread, but thought I would add it here for exposure. This video captures very well the origin and nature of pathogens that lead to pandemics and the potential risk.

PartyBear said:

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It appears that the death rate here is running at about 1.6% thus far based on confirmed cases and the death number.

---

Without proper testing we can't know the death rate. It's like trying to determine rate of speed without knowing the distance.

We should stop using shorthand and refer to the "death rate among confirmed cases". When (if) we ever get an actual number of confirmed cases my money is on <1%.

quash said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

It appears that the death rate here is running at about 1.6% thus far based on confirmed cases and the death number.

---

Without proper testing we can't know the death rate. It's like trying to determine rate of speed without knowing the distance.

We should stop using shorthand and refer to the "death rate among confirmed cases". When (if) we ever get an actual number of confirmed cases my money is on <1%.

---

As mentioned in an earlier discussion, these percentages (1%, 2,%, etc.) are CFR rates, whereas the real money stat would be IFR. CFR is the mortality rate of deaths per confirmed cases and IFR is the mortality rate of deaths as a percentage of total infections. I have no idea how we get IFR at this point on C-19. I will comment that the CFR for influenza is higher than C-19 at this point, but that could change as more data is collected.

For those of you in the Waco area, we now have 33 confirmed cases in McLennan County. Texas is now at 2052 confirmed cases with 27 deaths. We were just below 400 a week ago.

McLennan has 34 as of today. I have been watching the spread on www.coronavirus.1point3acreas.com. LT posted it the other day. It is a very good tracker. Including every county in the US.

jupiter said:

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---

Would have been nice if we had a president that addressed healthcare and maybe even passed a law that provided money to fund rural hospitals.

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

tommie said:

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jupiter said:

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---

Would have been nice if we had a president that addressed healthcare and maybe even passed a law that provided money to fund rural hospitals.

---

Please. Those people are deplorable.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

Oldbear83 said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

---

You have a very strange memory.

ACA was a cancer on the economy and healthcare in general, sold on lies and continued through conniving.

The courts are just now getting around to sending it to the garbage bin where it belongs.

---

We may see how bad our healthcare system is with a 20% unemployment rate. People losing their healthcare through no fault if their own. How do you fix that? Other lesser countries have figured this out. We haven't.

Tying healthcare to employment has screwed employers and employees for decades. Now they lose their jobs and get screwed again.

Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths

Total cases (tested): 123,578
Total deaths: 2,221

Buddha Bear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

---

You have a very strange memory.

ACA was a cancer on the economy and healthcare in general, sold on lies and continued through conniving.

The courts are just now getting around to sending it to the garbage bin where it belongs.

---

We may see how bad our healthcare system is with a 20% unemployment rate. People losing their healthcare through no fault if their own. How do you fix that? Other lesser countries have figured this out. We haven't.

Tying healthcare to employment has screwed employers and employees for decades. Now they lose their jobs and get screwed again.

---

So you are going to dictate what benefits employers can offer? How American of you.

GrowlTowel said:

---

Buddha Bear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

---

You have a very strange memory.

ACA was a cancer on the economy and healthcare in general, sold on lies and continued through conniving.

The courts are just now getting around to sending it to the garbage bin where it belongs.

---

We may see how bad our healthcare system is with a 20% unemployment rate. People losing their healthcare through no fault if their own. How do you fix that? Other lesser countries have figured this out. We haven't.

Tying healthcare to employment has screwed employers and employees for decades. Now they lose their jobs and get screwed again.

---

So you are going to dictate what benefits employers can offer? How American of you.

---

Companies can provide whatever benefits they want. I live in a country that has a universal healthcare system. But my company provides a premium healthcare policy on top of it. Thailand is better equipped for a pandemic since every single citizen can affordably go to the doctor. It's in the public's best interest for everyone to seek out medical help during this pandemic in order to contain it. Whereas unemployed Americans have to wait it out and weigh options if they get sick with this virus. It's shameful.

I know we will never agree on this one. To me it's not a partisan issue. America pays the most for healthcare in the whole world and covers less citizens. Glad I don't have to participate in that nonsense.

Taiwan is not a member of WHO.

Hmm

ATL Bear said:

---

Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths

Total cases (tested): 123,578
Total deaths: 2,221

---

Do you think the last three days indicate a slowing of the spread? The increase in new cases is not increasing like it was 4 days ago. We are testing much more.

The lockdown began approximately 14 days ago. Maybe mitigation is taking hold.

Osodecentx said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths

Total cases (tested): 123,578
Total deaths: 2,221

---

Do you think the last three days indicate a slowing of the spread? The increase in new cases is not increasing like it was 4 days ago. We are testing much more.

The lockdown began approximately 14 days ago. Maybe mitigation is taking hold.

---

Not sure about the effectiveness of mitigation efforts as it's too early to tell. One thing that is and will continue to happen is the rule of big numbers. Going from 100 to 1000 or 10,000 or even 100,000 within a very large field of opportunity (US population) is statistically insignificant. Whereas without a longer time horizon or exponent factor of growth, getting from 1,000 to 1 million or 10 million and beyond is much harder to achieve. It may look like exponential growth at a raw level early on, but as the numbers get higher what has to occur for continual exponential growth verses linear ascension becomes much more difficult in a multi factor environment.

The good news is that the trends show this is not running anywhere close to some of the doomsday models. The bad news is the linear ascension is continuing (day over day case/death increases) and I'm convinced until we see a downward trend in that factor officials and everyone else will remain excessively worried (regardless of the statistical significance). I also think we're acting on a lack of hard data which compounds the issue of effective decision making.

Interesting article on how mitigation worked in the 1918 pandemic.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

How some cities 'flattened the curve' during the 1918 flu pandemic
Social distancing isn't a new ideait saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.
3 MINUTE READ

BY NINA STROCHLIC AND RILEY D. CHAMPINE

PUBLISHED MARCH 27, 2020

PHILADELPHIA DETECTED ITS first case of a deadly, fast-spreading strain of influenza on September 17, 1918. The next day, in an attempt to halt the virus' spread, city officials launched a campaign against coughing, spitting, and sneezing in public. Yet 10 days laterdespite the prospect of an epidemic at its doorstepthe city hosted a parade that 200,000 people attended.
Philadelphia
Weekly deaths per 100,000 from 1918 pandemic above the expected rate
Deaths per 100,000 after
24 weeks of pandemic
748
Duration of social
distancing measures
250
San Francisco
200
Philadelphia waited eight days after their death rate began to take off before banning gatherings and closing schools. They endured the highest peak death rate of all cities studied.
673
Deaths per 100,000
150
150
After relaxing social distancing measures,
San Francisco faced
a long second wave of deaths.
100
100
50
50
0
0
1
8
WEEKS
16
24
1
8
WEEKS
16
24
Sep. 11 1918
Feb. 19 1919
St. Louis
New York
358
452
Deaths per 100,000
Deaths per 100,000
New York City began quarantine
measures very early11 days
before the death rate spiked.
The city had the lowest death
rate on the Eastern Seaboard.
St. Louis had strong social distanc-
ing measures and a low total death
rate. The city successfully delayed
its peak in deaths, but faced a sharp
increase when restrictions were
temporarily relaxed.
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
1
8
WEEKS
16
24
1
8
WEEKS
16
24
RILEY D. CHAMPINE, NG STAFF. SOURCE: MARKEL H, LIPMAN HB, NAVARRO JA, ET AL. NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS IMPLEMENTED BY US CITIES DURING THE 1918-1919 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC. JAMA.
Flu cases continued to mount until finally, on October 3, schools, churches, theaters, and public gathering spaces were shut down. Just two weeks after the first reported case, there were at least 20,000 more.

The 1918 flu, also known as the Spanish Flu, lasted until 1920 and is considered the deadliest pandemic in modern history. Today, as the world grinds to a halt in response to the coronavirus, scientists and historians are studying the 1918 outbreak for clues to the most effective way to stop a global pandemic. The efforts implemented then to stem the flu's spread in cities across Americaand the outcomesmay offer lessons for battling today's crisis.
Deaths per 100,000 after
24 weeks of pandemic
Duration of social
distancing measures
Weekly deaths per 100,000 from 1918 pandemic above the expected rate
807
Highest
death rate
after 24 weeks
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
New Orleans
Boston
San Francisco
Denver
Fall River, Mass.
Nashville, Tenn.
Washington, D.C.
807
784
734
710
672
631
621
610
608
Cities that ordered social distancing measures later and for shorter periods tended to have spikes in deaths and higher overall death rates.
Birmingham, Ala.
New Haven, Conn.
Kansas City, Mo.
Providence, R.I.
Baltimore
Omaha, Nebr.
Albany, N.Y.
Newark, N.J.
Buffalo, N.Y.
592
587
574
574
559
554
553
533
530
Portland, Oreg.
Los Angeles
Spokane, Wash.
Cleveland
Richmond, Va.
Oakland, Calif.
New York
Cincinnati
Seattle
505
494
474
452
451
414
508
506
482
Cities that ordered social distancing measures sooner and for longer periods usually slowed infections and lowered overall death rates.
Lowest death rate
after 24 weeks
Dayton, Ohio
Louisville, Ky.
Chicago
Columbus, Ohio
Rochester, N.Y.
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Indianapolis
Minneapolis
410
406
359
373
358
312
359
290
267
RILEY D. CHAMPINE, NG STAFF. SOURCE: MARKEL H, LIPMAN HB, NAVARRO JA, ET AL. NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS IMPLEMENTED BY US CITIES DURING THE 1918-1919 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC. JAMA.

From its first known U.S. case, at a Kansas military base in March 1918, the flu spread across the country. Shortly after health measures were put in place in Philadelphia, a case popped up in St. Louis. Two days later, the city shut down most public gatherings and quarantined victims in their homes. The cases slowed. By the end of the pandemic, between 50 and 100 million people were dead worldwide, including more than 500,000 Americansbut the death rate in St. Louis was less than half of the rate in Philadelphia. The deaths due to the virus were estimated to be about 385 people per 100,000 in St Louis, compared to 807 per 100,000 in Philadelphia during the first six monthsthe deadliest periodof the pandemic.
Dramatic demographic shifts in the past century have made containing a pandemic increasingly hard. The rise of globalization, urbanization, and larger, more densely populated cities can facilitate a virus' spread across a continent in a few hourswhile the tools available to respond have remained nearly the same. Now as then, public health interventions are the first line of defense against an epidemic in the absence of a vaccine. These measures include closing schools, shops, and restaurants; placing restrictions on transportation; mandating social distancing, and banning public gatherings. (This is how small groups can save lives during a pandemic.)

Of course, getting citizens to comply with such orders is another story: In 1918, a San Francisco health officer shot three people when one refused to wear a mandatory face mask. In Arizona, police handed out $10 fines for those caught without the protective gear. But eventually, the most drastic and sweeping measures paid off. After implementing a multitude of strict closures and controls on public gatherings, St. Louis, San Francisco, Milwaukee, and Kansas City responded fastest and most effectively: Interventions there were credited with cutting transmission rates by 30 to 50 percent. New York City, which reacted earliest to the crisis with mandatory quarantines and staggered business hours, experienced the lowest death rate on the Eastern seaboard.
In 2007, two studies published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sought to understand how responses influenced the disease's spread in different cities. By comparing fatality rates, timing, and public health interventions, they found death rates were around 50 percent lower in cities that implemented preventative measures early on, versus those that did so late or not at all. The most effective efforts had simultaneously closed schools, churches, and theaters, and banned public gatherings. This allowed time for vaccine development and lessened the strain on health care systems.
The studies reached another important conclusion: That relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse. St. Louis, for example, was so emboldened by its low death rate that the city lifted restrictions on public gatherings less than two months after the outbreak began. A rash of new cases soon followed. Of the cities that kept interventions in place, none experienced a second wave of high death rates. (See photos that capture a world paused by coronavirus.)
In 1918, the studies found, the key to flattening the curve was social distancing. And that likely remains true a century later, in the current battle against coronavirus. "[T]here is an invaluable treasure trove of useful historical data that has only just begun to be used to inform our actions," Columbia University epidemiologist Stephen S. Morse wrote in an analysis of the data. "The lessons of 1918, if well heeded, might help us to avoid repeating the same history today."

Well, there's this from the National Institute of Health (NIH):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32205204?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral

The key quote:

"CONCLUSION: Despite its small sample size our survey shows that hydroxychloroquine treatment is significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients and its effect is reinforced by azithromycin."

Oldbear83 said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

---

You have a very strange memory.

ACA was a cancer on the economy and healthcare in general, sold on lies and continued through conniving.

The courts are just now getting around to sending it to the garbage bin where it belongs.

---

Over the next month, we will regret not properly supporting rural health.

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

---

You have a very strange memory.

ACA was a cancer on the economy and healthcare in general, sold on lies and continued through conniving.

The courts are just now getting around to sending it to the garbage bin where it belongs.

---

Over the next month, we will regret not properly supporting rural health.

---

Over the next month, we will regret putting a lockdown on elective procedures and scaring people from the ERs of rural hospitals. That's what will make them go bankrupt during this crisis.

ATL Bear said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

---

You have a very strange memory.

ACA was a cancer on the economy and healthcare in general, sold on lies and continued through conniving.

The courts are just now getting around to sending it to the garbage bin where it belongs.

---

Over the next month, we will regret not properly supporting rural health.

---

Over the next month, we will regret putting a lockdown on elective procedures and scaring people from the ERs of rural hospitals. That's what will make them go bankrupt during this crisis.

---

Rural Hospitals have been closing at record rates in states that didn't expand Medicare. Before this pandemic.

The bill that just passed will provide funding but not for the hospitals that have already closed and with little help for those with non Coronavirus (heart conditions, diabetes, etc) who can't get into facilities 100 miles away.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/19/us-rural-hospital-closures-report

tommie said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

tommie said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Last I checked, Congress writes and debates bills which may or may not become law.

Maybe instead of looking so hard for some poo to fling at the President, you could make your suggestions to your Representative and Senator.

---

Poo at the President?

I believe Congress passed a law that funded rural hospitals. It was called the Affordability Care Act.

Currently, it's being challenged in the court.

---

You have a very strange memory.

ACA was a cancer on the economy and healthcare in general, sold on lies and continued through conniving.

The courts are just now getting around to sending it to the garbage bin where it belongs.

---

Over the next month, we will regret not properly supporting rural health.

---

Over the next month, we will regret putting a lockdown on elective procedures and scaring people from the ERs of rural hospitals. That's what will make them go bankrupt during this crisis.

---

Rural Hospitals have been closing at record rates in states that didn't expand Medicare. Before this pandemic.

The bill that just passed will provide funding but not for the hospitals that have already closed and with little help for those with non Coronavirus (heart conditions, diabetes, etc) who can't get into facilities 100 miles away.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/19/us-rural-hospital-closures-report

---

We dumped jet fuel on an already tenuous situation.

Country singer Joe Diffie has died from complications of coronavirus. Just 61 years old. One of his lyrics is in my sig.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/country-star-joe-diffie-dead-at-61-due-to-coronavirus-complications-203803845.html

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Country singer Joe Diffie has died from complications of coronavirus. Just 61 years old. One of his lyrics is in my sig.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/country-star-joe-diffie-dead-at-61-due-to-coronavirus-complications-203803845.html

---

Well, I do hope Joe is in Heaven right now.

Oldbear83 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Country singer Joe Diffie has died from complications of coronavirus. Just 61 years old. One of his lyrics is in my sig.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/country-star-joe-diffie-dead-at-61-due-to-coronavirus-complications-203803845.html

---

Well, I do hope Joe is in Heaven right now.

---

Me too. I am just wondering if they propped him up by the jukebox. RIP Joe Diffie. Prayers for his family.

quash said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

It appears that the death rate here is running at about 1.6% thus far based on confirmed cases and the death number.

---

Without proper testing we can't know the death rate. It's like trying to determine rate of speed without knowing the distance.

We should stop using shorthand and refer to the "death rate among confirmed cases". When (if) we ever get an actual number of confirmed cases my money is on <1%.

---

This is the correct answer to me. Every Dr. I've seen who specializes in this says there are 10X the cases as are reported, most folks don't even know they had it.

Real death rate is very very likely less than 1/2 of 1% Probably with the numbers I see about 2/10th of one percent of cases, if there are actually 10X cases than are known, since most cases are relatively mild.

Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths

Total cases (tested): 142,047
Total deaths: 2,484