There's still no such thing as the law of big numbers in the sense you seem to be talking about. The law of large numbers has to do with random variables and probability; it has nothing to do with this. The only issue with regard to exponential growth is whether infections double at a constant or diminishing rate. Doubling at a constant rate is precisely how it was working with coronavirus.ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Coronavirus updates here
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Last: 3 yr ago by Jacques Strap
It's not doubling at a constant rate because of declining multiples, and the reduction in probable number performance due to overstated variables. As infection multiples decrease it will slow even further.Sam Lowry said:There's still no such thing as the law of big numbers in the sense you seem to be talking about. The law of large numbers has to do with random variables and probability; it has nothing to do with this. The only issue with regard to exponential growth is whether infections double at a constant or diminishing rate. Doubling at a constant rate is precisely how it was working with coronavirus.ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
EDIT: The ability to retain large expansion becomes difficult the larger the base becomes. That's the law of big numbers applied. Virus expansion has lots of variables at work. That's how we got huge model variances. But fortunately for all of us it is performing at the lower end of expectations.
Watching...
Justice Samuel Alito this week ordered the Pennsylvania government to respond to arguments from a variety of Pennsylvanians asking the Supreme Court to halt enforcement of Gov. Tom Wolf's strict stay-at-home order, aimed at fighting the coronavirus, because they say it is unconstitutional.
The Pennsylvanians behind the suit called petitioners in Supreme Court parlance are arguing that their rights under the First, Fifth and 14th Amendments have been violated through Wolf's order. The petition lays out a variety of grounds on which it says the order is unconstitutional.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alito-orders-pennsylvania-to-respond-in-case-asking-supreme-court-to-halt-enforcement-of-stay-at-home-order
Justice Samuel Alito this week ordered the Pennsylvania government to respond to arguments from a variety of Pennsylvanians asking the Supreme Court to halt enforcement of Gov. Tom Wolf's strict stay-at-home order, aimed at fighting the coronavirus, because they say it is unconstitutional.
The Pennsylvanians behind the suit called petitioners in Supreme Court parlance are arguing that their rights under the First, Fifth and 14th Amendments have been violated through Wolf's order. The petition lays out a variety of grounds on which it says the order is unconstitutional.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alito-orders-pennsylvania-to-respond-in-case-asking-supreme-court-to-halt-enforcement-of-stay-at-home-order
Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
You can't use one rule for weeks on end, then when it doesn't work for your argument pretend that you meant a different rule, Sam.
Is this why there are so few pink Cadillacs on the streets?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
. If this is a Mary Kay reference, well done! LOL!quash said:Is this why there are so few pink Cadillacs on the streets?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
ATL Bear said:All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
My worry would be that social distancing did work, just not in New York City. If we relax too much, the rest of the country gets what it pretty successfully avoided to this point. The balancing act between public health and protecting the economy is really difficult with so much about the virus unknown.
Good points, but sooner or later the lockdown will end. When it does there will be an increase in cases, both confirmed and silent. IMO, the critical data will be how many vacant hospital beds we have. We will have to gauge our activities accordingly.Booray said:ATL Bear said:All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
My worry would be that social distancing did work, just not in New York City. If we relax too much, the rest of the country gets what it pretty successfully avoided to this point. The balancing act between public health and protecting the economy is really difficult with so much about the virus unknown.
Most of the country has had its greatest expansion in the middle of Social Distancing measures Including NY. In fact, I'm struggling with how to assess the Rt number as a real spread determinant. It has Michigan as the lowest state right now, and they're still a hot mess from a raw numbers standpoint. Maybe it's just lagging reporting, but that's the data.Booray said:ATL Bear said:All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
My worry would be that social distancing did work, just not in New York City. If we relax too much, the rest of the country gets what it pretty successfully avoided to this point. The balancing act between public health and protecting the economy is really difficult with so much about the virus unknown.
"Sore arm" is just about the most random side-effect I've ever seen. Perhaps they meant the injection site was sore?tommie said:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazeneca-and-oxford-university-announce-landmark-agreement-for-covid-19-vaccine.html
Anyways, will be great to see their results come June/ July, when they expect to have more definitive answers about the effectiveness of this vaccine.
Interesting CDC Data on fatalities.
2/1/2020 - 4/25/2020
Total Deaths all causes: 719,438
Total Deaths Covid: 37,308
Total Deaths Pneumonia: 64,382
Total Deaths Pneumonia + Covid: 16,564
Total Deaths Influenza: 5,846
Total Deaths Pneumonia, Covid, Pneumonia+Covid, Influenza: 90,165
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/
2/1/2020 - 4/25/2020
Total Deaths all causes: 719,438
Total Deaths Covid: 37,308
Total Deaths Pneumonia: 64,382
Total Deaths Pneumonia + Covid: 16,564
Total Deaths Influenza: 5,846
Total Deaths Pneumonia, Covid, Pneumonia+Covid, Influenza: 90,165
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/
LTbear said:"Sore arm" is just about the most random side-effect I've ever seen. Perhaps they meant the injection site was sore?tommie said:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazeneca-and-oxford-university-announce-landmark-agreement-for-covid-19-vaccine.html
Anyways, will be great to see their results come June/ July, when they expect to have more definitive answers about the effectiveness of this vaccine.
I giggled about that, too.
California
The economy can only be protected by protecting it from the virus. That is what is not comprehended by many here.Booray said:ATL Bear said:All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
My worry would be that social distancing did work, just not in New York City. If we relax too much, the rest of the country gets what it pretty successfully avoided to this point. The balancing act between public health and protecting the economy is really difficult with so much about the virus unknown.
(Bloomberg) President Trump tells reporters that Gilead has gotten an emergency use authorization for its coronavirus drug remdesivir.
(Bloomberg) -- Gilead Sciences Inc.'s antiviral drug has been cleared by U.S.
regulators for emergency use in Covid-19 patients, President Donald Trump
told reporters at the White House Friday.
The drug, remdesivir, has shown positive results in helping hospitalized
patients recover more quickly. The Food and Drug Administration cleared the
drug under an emergency use authorization, a shortcut step by which the
agency can bring products to market without full data on their safety and
efficacy.
(Bloomberg) -- Gilead Sciences Inc.'s antiviral drug has been cleared by U.S.
regulators for emergency use in Covid-19 patients, President Donald Trump
told reporters at the White House Friday.
The drug, remdesivir, has shown positive results in helping hospitalized
patients recover more quickly. The Food and Drug Administration cleared the
drug under an emergency use authorization, a shortcut step by which the
agency can bring products to market without full data on their safety and
efficacy.
ATL Bear said:
Interesting CDC Data on fatalities.
2/1/2020 - 4/25/2020
Total Deaths all causes: 719,438
Total Deaths Covid: 37,308
Total Deaths Pneumonia: 64,382
Total Deaths Pneumonia + Covid: 16,564
Total Deaths Influenza: 5,846
Total Deaths Pneumonia, Covid, Pneumonia+Covid, Influenza: 90,165
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/
So if you take pneumonia + COVID deaths going to COVID then you'd get a little less than 21,000 COVID deaths
Right?
That's some serious fudging of the numbers! Wonder if there's other combos going to COVID?
That seems highly dishonest
Jacques Strap said:
California
Does anyone at all suffer consequences for such terrible predictions as our economy has been murdered over the fallacy of above predictions
Criminal behavior???
California
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/01/thousands-of-protesters-flock-to-huntington-beach-following-state-ordered-oc-beach-closures/
Large crowds opposing the state's coronavirus stay-at-home mandate took to the streets of downtown Huntington Beach Friday, a day after the governor closed Orange County beaches and drew frustration and criticism from some residents and city leaders.
More than a thousand protesters gathered near the Huntington Beach pier shortly before noon. The tightly packed crowd, with most people not wearing protective masks, repeatedly chanted "U.S.A." as they waited for the demonstration to begin.
Some expressed frustration at the governor's continual extensions of the stay-at-home orders, which are currently expected to last at least several more weeks.
"He keeps dangling the carrot," said Dave Elm, a factory worker from Huntington Beach whose work hours have been cut to two days a week. "First he said 14 days, then two weeks, 30 days and now says it will be well in May. The numbers (involving the infection rate) don't support it."
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/01/thousands-of-protesters-flock-to-huntington-beach-following-state-ordered-oc-beach-closures/
Large crowds opposing the state's coronavirus stay-at-home mandate took to the streets of downtown Huntington Beach Friday, a day after the governor closed Orange County beaches and drew frustration and criticism from some residents and city leaders.
More than a thousand protesters gathered near the Huntington Beach pier shortly before noon. The tightly packed crowd, with most people not wearing protective masks, repeatedly chanted "U.S.A." as they waited for the demonstration to begin.
Some expressed frustration at the governor's continual extensions of the stay-at-home orders, which are currently expected to last at least several more weeks.
"He keeps dangling the carrot," said Dave Elm, a factory worker from Huntington Beach whose work hours have been cut to two days a week. "First he said 14 days, then two weeks, 30 days and now says it will be well in May. The numbers (involving the infection rate) don't support it."
PartyBear said:The economy can only be protected by protecting it from the virus. That is what is not comprehended by many here.Booray said:ATL Bear said:All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
My worry would be that social distancing did work, just not in New York City. If we relax too much, the rest of the country gets what it pretty successfully avoided to this point. The balancing act between public health and protecting the economy is really difficult with so much about the virus unknown.
You obviously have no job and/or your income has not been effected negatively by the shutdown
If it had you'd sympathize with other side at least minimally
If it were a crime to be wrong we'd have stopped hearing from you a long time ago.Florda_mike said:Jacques Strap said:
California
Does anyone at all suffer consequences for such terrible predictions as our economy has been murdered over the fallacy of above predictions
Criminal behavior???
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
quash said:If it were a crime to be wrong we'd have stopped hearing from you a long time ago.Florda_mike said:Jacques Strap said:
California
Does anyone at all suffer consequences for such terrible predictions as our economy has been murdered over the fallacy of above predictions
Criminal behavior???
The most ironic post ever on Sicem? Ironically made by our resident libertarian!
There is even no way to say if social distancing in NY worked or not. There is no way to know what would have happened without it.Booray said:ATL Bear said:All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
My worry would be that social distancing did work, just not in New York City. If we relax too much, the rest of the country gets what it pretty successfully avoided to this point. The balancing act between public health and protecting the economy is really difficult with so much about the virus unknown.
I'm sympathetic, but this is looking like hurricane path predictionsquash said:If it were a crime to be wrong we'd have stopped hearing from you a long time ago.Florda_mike said:Jacques Strap said:
California
Does anyone at all suffer consequences for such terrible predictions as our economy has been murdered over the fallacy of above predictions
Criminal behavior???
The curve didn't flatten in NY until after social distancing kicked in. They don't have near enough cases for herd immunity there, so there is no other logical explanation. It worked in Italy and Spain, there is no reason to think it did not work in NY. A significant part of the country, including Texas, lags behind behind NY from initial exposure to the virus, and population density is not as great, so it makes sense virus spread is slowed in those areas.blackie said:There is even no way to say if social distancing in NY worked or not. There is no way to know what would have happened without it.Booray said:ATL Bear said:All good questions, and unknowns at this point. I'm sure some level of increase would occur, but then I would have expected a larger down curve from social distancing measures which never really materialized. Getting toward herd immunity is a good thing, but how long that would take is one of those big unknowns. We certainly would get there in a more rapid spread environment, but I think by now we know the public divide on that.Osodecentx said:Won't there be more cases as we normalize activities? Is that bad?ATL Bear said:
Doubling. Remember when everyone was fixated on how fast cases and deaths were doubling every X number of days? This fueled the exponential arguments about how the disease would ravage out of control.
US: Just doubled cases from April 12th and deaths from April 14th (2 weeks+).
New York: Just doubled cases from April 8th and Deaths from the 13th (3 weeks and 2 weeks+ respectively).
Texas: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 13th. (2 weeks+).
Georgia: Just doubled cases from April 11th and deaths from the 14th (2 weeks+).
This horizon will extend farther as we progress, and is simply the law of big numbers at work in a non exponential environment. As the spread factor (Rt) has been reduced to a sub 1.0 nationally, it's likely the virus will Peter out over the next few months, but will likely never become eradicated. And for those who think that means we'll be doubled from today in two weeks, that's not the way it works.
Won't most young healthy individuals who contract the virus be asymptomatic?
In Waco, 73 of 89 confirmed cases have recovered. Four have died. We have empty ICU beds.
https://covidwaco.com
As far as asymptomatic infections, the statistics would say yes, which would mean we'd continue with large numbers of unrecorded cases. But public policy decisions will likely be driven by the knowns and not unknowns, unless of course it involves doomsday model forecasts
My worry would be that social distancing did work, just not in New York City. If we relax too much, the rest of the country gets what it pretty successfully avoided to this point. The balancing act between public health and protecting the economy is really difficult with so much about the virus unknown.
Dude had a busy day
Updated virus progression
US:
March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.
April 1: 26,473 new cases. 1049 new deaths.
April 2: 29,874 new cases. 968 new deaths.
April 3: 32,284 new cases. 1,321 new deaths.
April 4: 34,196 new cases. 1,331 new deaths.
April 5: 25,316 new cases. 1,165 new deaths.
April 6: 30,331 new cases. 1,255 new deaths.
April 7: 33,331 new cases. 1,970 new deaths.
April 8: 31,935 new cases. 1,940 new deaths
April 9: 33,536 new cases. 1,900 new deaths.
April 10: 33,752 new cases. 2,035 new deaths.
April 11: 30,003 new cases. 1,830 new deaths
April 12: 27,421 new cases. 1,528 new deaths.
April 13: 26,641 new cases. 1,535 new deaths.
April 14: 30,288 new cases. 6,129 new deaths.
April 15: 30,700 new cases. 2,796 new deaths.
April 16: 31,805 new cases. 2,108 new deaths.
April 17: 31,575 new cases. 2,524 new deaths
April 18: 28,526 new cases. 2,076 new deaths.
April 19: 25,778 new cases. 1,638 new deaths.
April 20: 28,751 new cases. 1,781 new deaths.
April 21: 25,615 new cases. 2,847 new deaths.
April 22: 29,958 new cases. 2,221 new deaths.
April 23: 34,856 new cases. 2,425 new deaths.
April 24: 37,057 new cases. 2,170 new deaths
April 25: 31,750 new cases. 1,797 new deaths.
April 26: 27,155 new cases. 1,333 new deaths.
April 27: 23,917 new cases. 1,308 new deaths.
April 28: 25,324 new cases. 2,368 new deaths.
April 29: 29,012 new cases. 2,426 new deaths.
April 30: 31,471 new cases. 2,233 new deaths.
May 1: 35,052 new cases. 1,872 new deaths.
Total cases (tested): 1,132,295
Total deaths: 65,710
Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.
April 1: 4,068 cases. 60 deaths
April 2: 4,823 cases. 77 deaths
April 3: 5,658 cases. 97 deaths
April 4: 6,311 cases. 111 deaths
April 5: 7,044 cases. 133 deaths
April 6: 8,088 cases. 151 deaths
April 7: 8,939 cases. 167 deaths
April 8: 10,065 cases. 195 deaths
April 9: 11,426 cases. 222 deaths
April 10: 12,186 cases. 248 deaths.
April 11: 13,205 cases. 267 deaths
April 12: 13,640 cases. 278 deaths
April 13: 14,277 cases. 295 deaths
April 14: 15,013 cases. 345 deaths
April 15: 16,009 cases. 375 deaths.
April 16: 17,265 cases. 429 deaths.
April 17: 18,079 cases. 459 deaths.
April 18: 18,921 cases. 484 deaths.
April 19: 19,404 cases. 500 deaths.
April 20: 20,087 cases. 520 deaths.
April 21: 20,975 cases. 545 deaths
April 22: 21,774 cases. 567 deaths.
April 23: 22,650 cases. 604 deaths
April 24: 23,642 cases. 624 deaths.
April 25: 24,157 cases. 638 deaths.
April 26: 24,968 cases. 651 deaths.
April 27: 25,321 cases. 667 deaths.
April 28: 26,357 cases. 719 deaths.
April 29: 27,390 cases. 759 deaths.
April 30: 28,707 cases. 809 deaths.
May 1: 29,937 cases. 841 deaths.
New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.
April 1: 83,901 cases. 2,219 deaths. (505 today!)
April 2: 93,053 cases. 2,583 deaths.
April 3: 103,476 cases. 3,218 deaths. (680 today!)
April 4: 114,775 cases. 3,565 deaths.
April 5: 123,018 cases. 4,159 deaths. (594 today)
April 6: 131,916 cases. 4,758 deaths. (599 today)
April 7: 142,384 cases. 5,489 deaths. (731 today)
April 8: 151,171 cases. 6,268 deaths. (779 today)
April 9: 161,504 cases. 7,067 deaths. (799 today)
April 10: 172,358 cases. 7,844 deaths. (777 today)
April 11: 181,144 cases. 8,627 deaths (783 today)
April 12: 189,415 cases. 9,385 deaths (758 today)
April 13: 195,655 cases. 10,056 deaths (671 today)
April 14: 207,168 cases. 14,612 deaths (4,556 today)
April 15: 218,911 cases. 15,648 deaths (1,036 today)
April 16: 227,625 cases. 16,130 deaths (482 today)
April 17: 235,395 cases. 17,131 deaths (1,001 today)
April 18: 242,580 cases. 17,627 deaths (541 today)
April 19: 248,431 cases. 18,298 deaths (671 today)
April 20: 253,324 cases. 18,822 deaths (524 today)
April 21: 258,589 cases. 19,753 deaths (931 today)
April 22: 263,754 cases. 20,255 deaths (501 today)
April 23: 271,162 cases. 20,982 deaths (727 today)
April 24: 279,314 cases. 21,430 deaths (448 today)
April 25: 287,490 cases. 21,802 deaths (372 today)
April 26: 293,696 cases. 22,365 deaths (563 today)
April 27: 298,442 cases. 22,668 deaths (303 today)
April 28: 301,489 cases. 23,134 deaths (466 today)
April 29: 306,478 cases. 23,477 deaths (343 today)
April 30: 311,379 cases. 23,796 deaths (316 today)
May 1: 315,515 cases. 24,039 deaths (243 today)
Georgia:
April 3: 5955 cases. 196 deaths.
April 4: 6373 cases. 206 deaths.
April 5: 6729 cases. 217 deaths.
April 6: 7549 cases. 285 deaths.
April 7: 9131 cases. 335 deaths.
April 8: 10,203 cases. 361 deaths.
April 9: 10,882 cases. 407 deaths.
April 10: 11,852 cases. 421 deaths.
April 11: 12,261 cases. 432 deaths.
April 12: 12,550 cases. 440 deaths.
April 13: 13,621 cases. 477 deaths.
April 14: 14,578 cases. 523 deaths.
April 15: 15,267 cases. 575 deaths.
April 16: 16,354 cases. 613 deaths.
April 17: 17,434 cases. 668 deaths.
April 18: 17,841 cases. 677 deaths.
April 19: 18,297 cases. 687 deaths.
April 20: 19,388 cases. 769 deaths.
April 21: 20,156 cases. 816 deaths.
April 22: 21,090 cases. 845 deaths.
April 23: 21,883 cases. 881 deaths.
April 24: 22,491 cases. 899 deaths.
April 25: 23,222 cases. 907 deaths.
April 26: 23,475 cases. 916 deaths.
April 27: 24,209 cases. 991 deaths.
April 28: 24,942 cases. 1,037 deaths.
April 29: 25,955 cases. 1,103 deaths.
April 30: 26,375 cases. 1,136 deaths.
May 1: 27,731 cases. 1,169 deaths.
CNN felt compelled to run an article yesterday about Georgia having over 1,000 new cases on the day the shelter in place order was lifted. Now Georgia has had over 1,000 new cases a day multiple times, early, middle, and late in the month of April. I have to ask why now it was important to mention it since all of these cases would have been infections that occurred during shelter in place measures?
The US also had our 2nd highest day of new case infections since the tracking began. The majority coming from the usual suspects.
US:
March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.
April 1: 26,473 new cases. 1049 new deaths.
April 2: 29,874 new cases. 968 new deaths.
April 3: 32,284 new cases. 1,321 new deaths.
April 4: 34,196 new cases. 1,331 new deaths.
April 5: 25,316 new cases. 1,165 new deaths.
April 6: 30,331 new cases. 1,255 new deaths.
April 7: 33,331 new cases. 1,970 new deaths.
April 8: 31,935 new cases. 1,940 new deaths
April 9: 33,536 new cases. 1,900 new deaths.
April 10: 33,752 new cases. 2,035 new deaths.
April 11: 30,003 new cases. 1,830 new deaths
April 12: 27,421 new cases. 1,528 new deaths.
April 13: 26,641 new cases. 1,535 new deaths.
April 14: 30,288 new cases. 6,129 new deaths.
April 15: 30,700 new cases. 2,796 new deaths.
April 16: 31,805 new cases. 2,108 new deaths.
April 17: 31,575 new cases. 2,524 new deaths
April 18: 28,526 new cases. 2,076 new deaths.
April 19: 25,778 new cases. 1,638 new deaths.
April 20: 28,751 new cases. 1,781 new deaths.
April 21: 25,615 new cases. 2,847 new deaths.
April 22: 29,958 new cases. 2,221 new deaths.
April 23: 34,856 new cases. 2,425 new deaths.
April 24: 37,057 new cases. 2,170 new deaths
April 25: 31,750 new cases. 1,797 new deaths.
April 26: 27,155 new cases. 1,333 new deaths.
April 27: 23,917 new cases. 1,308 new deaths.
April 28: 25,324 new cases. 2,368 new deaths.
April 29: 29,012 new cases. 2,426 new deaths.
April 30: 31,471 new cases. 2,233 new deaths.
May 1: 35,052 new cases. 1,872 new deaths.
Total cases (tested): 1,132,295
Total deaths: 65,710
Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.
April 1: 4,068 cases. 60 deaths
April 2: 4,823 cases. 77 deaths
April 3: 5,658 cases. 97 deaths
April 4: 6,311 cases. 111 deaths
April 5: 7,044 cases. 133 deaths
April 6: 8,088 cases. 151 deaths
April 7: 8,939 cases. 167 deaths
April 8: 10,065 cases. 195 deaths
April 9: 11,426 cases. 222 deaths
April 10: 12,186 cases. 248 deaths.
April 11: 13,205 cases. 267 deaths
April 12: 13,640 cases. 278 deaths
April 13: 14,277 cases. 295 deaths
April 14: 15,013 cases. 345 deaths
April 15: 16,009 cases. 375 deaths.
April 16: 17,265 cases. 429 deaths.
April 17: 18,079 cases. 459 deaths.
April 18: 18,921 cases. 484 deaths.
April 19: 19,404 cases. 500 deaths.
April 20: 20,087 cases. 520 deaths.
April 21: 20,975 cases. 545 deaths
April 22: 21,774 cases. 567 deaths.
April 23: 22,650 cases. 604 deaths
April 24: 23,642 cases. 624 deaths.
April 25: 24,157 cases. 638 deaths.
April 26: 24,968 cases. 651 deaths.
April 27: 25,321 cases. 667 deaths.
April 28: 26,357 cases. 719 deaths.
April 29: 27,390 cases. 759 deaths.
April 30: 28,707 cases. 809 deaths.
May 1: 29,937 cases. 841 deaths.
New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.
April 1: 83,901 cases. 2,219 deaths. (505 today!)
April 2: 93,053 cases. 2,583 deaths.
April 3: 103,476 cases. 3,218 deaths. (680 today!)
April 4: 114,775 cases. 3,565 deaths.
April 5: 123,018 cases. 4,159 deaths. (594 today)
April 6: 131,916 cases. 4,758 deaths. (599 today)
April 7: 142,384 cases. 5,489 deaths. (731 today)
April 8: 151,171 cases. 6,268 deaths. (779 today)
April 9: 161,504 cases. 7,067 deaths. (799 today)
April 10: 172,358 cases. 7,844 deaths. (777 today)
April 11: 181,144 cases. 8,627 deaths (783 today)
April 12: 189,415 cases. 9,385 deaths (758 today)
April 13: 195,655 cases. 10,056 deaths (671 today)
April 14: 207,168 cases. 14,612 deaths (4,556 today)
April 15: 218,911 cases. 15,648 deaths (1,036 today)
April 16: 227,625 cases. 16,130 deaths (482 today)
April 17: 235,395 cases. 17,131 deaths (1,001 today)
April 18: 242,580 cases. 17,627 deaths (541 today)
April 19: 248,431 cases. 18,298 deaths (671 today)
April 20: 253,324 cases. 18,822 deaths (524 today)
April 21: 258,589 cases. 19,753 deaths (931 today)
April 22: 263,754 cases. 20,255 deaths (501 today)
April 23: 271,162 cases. 20,982 deaths (727 today)
April 24: 279,314 cases. 21,430 deaths (448 today)
April 25: 287,490 cases. 21,802 deaths (372 today)
April 26: 293,696 cases. 22,365 deaths (563 today)
April 27: 298,442 cases. 22,668 deaths (303 today)
April 28: 301,489 cases. 23,134 deaths (466 today)
April 29: 306,478 cases. 23,477 deaths (343 today)
April 30: 311,379 cases. 23,796 deaths (316 today)
May 1: 315,515 cases. 24,039 deaths (243 today)
Georgia:
April 3: 5955 cases. 196 deaths.
April 4: 6373 cases. 206 deaths.
April 5: 6729 cases. 217 deaths.
April 6: 7549 cases. 285 deaths.
April 7: 9131 cases. 335 deaths.
April 8: 10,203 cases. 361 deaths.
April 9: 10,882 cases. 407 deaths.
April 10: 11,852 cases. 421 deaths.
April 11: 12,261 cases. 432 deaths.
April 12: 12,550 cases. 440 deaths.
April 13: 13,621 cases. 477 deaths.
April 14: 14,578 cases. 523 deaths.
April 15: 15,267 cases. 575 deaths.
April 16: 16,354 cases. 613 deaths.
April 17: 17,434 cases. 668 deaths.
April 18: 17,841 cases. 677 deaths.
April 19: 18,297 cases. 687 deaths.
April 20: 19,388 cases. 769 deaths.
April 21: 20,156 cases. 816 deaths.
April 22: 21,090 cases. 845 deaths.
April 23: 21,883 cases. 881 deaths.
April 24: 22,491 cases. 899 deaths.
April 25: 23,222 cases. 907 deaths.
April 26: 23,475 cases. 916 deaths.
April 27: 24,209 cases. 991 deaths.
April 28: 24,942 cases. 1,037 deaths.
April 29: 25,955 cases. 1,103 deaths.
April 30: 26,375 cases. 1,136 deaths.
May 1: 27,731 cases. 1,169 deaths.
CNN felt compelled to run an article yesterday about Georgia having over 1,000 new cases on the day the shelter in place order was lifted. Now Georgia has had over 1,000 new cases a day multiple times, early, middle, and late in the month of April. I have to ask why now it was important to mention it since all of these cases would have been infections that occurred during shelter in place measures?
The US also had our 2nd highest day of new case infections since the tracking began. The majority coming from the usual suspects.