Osodecentx said:
Oldbear83 said:
quash said:
Oldbear83 said:
quash said:
Doc Holliday said:
blackie said:
Doc Holliday said:
Jack Bauer said:
Uh...oh.
"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.
The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470
The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.
Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.
Doc, I would scale back a little bit to avoid disappointment. The "eagerness to get out" is not shared by probably a third or more of the population that fall into the most at-risk population.....people over 65 and those with underlying conditions. That probably doesn't even account for much less at-risk people who in their families are reluctant in fear of bringing it home to older parents and such that are living with them. It is going to be a while before this group goes back whole hog as long as there is no treatment or convincing signs that the virus has played itself out. Especially when they see crowds of people doing their best to transmit any virus they may be carrying to everyone they can because of their refusal to even consider any transmission precautions.
Without this group of people, it is not reasonable to expect the economy to get back anywhere near where it was. The unemployment numbers will still be abysmal. The stimulus checks.......they have already been spent, unless you are going to send out a whole bunch more. The younger people who are so eager to get out don't have the income or means to make up for those that will be able, but choose not to get out with anything close to their behavior pre-virus.
The only thing you might see is the difference between Q2 and Q3. That could be quite a bit in some areas, but that will only be a relative figure compared to a horrible Q2. Nothing anywhere near the "best GDP quarter in modern history". You have to look at absolutes, not relative comparisons.
My reasoning is that the bigger the fall the bigger the recovery. Not necessarily exceptionalism.
I'm not stating the GDP will be the best it's been but the ratio of it getting better might be the best. Unemployment might be terrible still, but the drop will be massive I suspect. That's a good trend leading into Q4 and next year.
It's pointless to look at absolutes when we all know this is bad for the economy.
Regression to the mean, basically.
You do love buzz words, quash.
I think the economy will have surprises, good and bad, for the rest of this year. But simple assumptions would be a mistake, in any direction.
A buzzword is something that loses its meaning through repetition. Regression to the mean is a statistics concept.
But thanks for those two fortune cookie bonus sentences, you saved me a trip to the buffet.
Cool story, quash. Using a cliched phrase as you did also 'loses its meaning through repetition', so I stand by my post.
I certainly understand that you are struggling with the content.
You don't have to respond to every post, and effective posters don't. It diminishes your impact.
Consider posting less
This is an internet forum for a relatively small and regional university, primarily designed for sports talk.
This forum is therefore primarily entertainment, and I find it amusing to dissemble the arguments of would-be pundits who cannot even make cogent argument.
If this bothers you, you are not obliged to read. I do find it amusing that you feel less is more, yet you posted on the very same sub-thread within this one on this point.
That is, perhaps take your own advice.
) published in the journal Thorax.
