Coronavirus updates here

431,628 Views | 4582 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Jacques Strap
Sam Lowry
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ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

We're in full on burn through, so embrace it. No magic science is around the corner to save us. There has never been a coronavirus vaccine for any strain. We will continue to get better at symptom treatment, but that's it, and is why deaths have decoupled from case growth.

I'm sure someone will come up with some half measure immune booster that shows limited prevention, sort of like the flu vaccine, but our best weapon will be our own natural boosting of our defense through T cell immune responses. A little courage and less fear is way over due.
Scientists know we're looking for the least bad of many bad outcomes. There's no magical thinking involved. Flu vaccines are effective. We were close to a vaccine for SARS-1 when the epidemic died down and people lost interest. We're paying the price for it now. If we pay a higher price next time (and there will be a next time), it will be because of attitudes like this. What's overdue is a little longer attention span and a little more concern for something besides the next football season.
The vaccine from SARS1 was only claimed to be effective. It never got to trials. If it were that close and/or effective, it would already be spun up now. But it isn't.
There's absolutely no basis for this claim, except that it happens to serve the burn-through agenda. The vaccine was never tested because there was no funding. The SARS scare was over, and investors lost interest. They can't flip a switch and produce immediate results just because we're ready for them now.
If it had efficacy as a SARS vaccine they would have spun it up now. It did not.
According to whom?
According to the Galveston National laboratory who hasn't moved forward or gotten any funding for it, but has and is working on other vaccine and research advances for Covid 19.
Source?
https://www.utmb.edu/gnl/news/2020/05/05/texas-monthly-inside-the-frantic-and-frustrating-race-to-develop-a-covid-19-vaccine-in-texas
From your link:
Quote:

"As soon as we knew this was a coronavirus, we felt we had to jump at it," McLellan told UT News, "because we could be one of the first ones to get this structure. We knew exactly what mutations to put into this, because we've already shown these mutations work for a bunch of other coronaviruses."

His comments parallel those of Hotez and Bottazzi. As COVID-19 was racing through China in January, a research contact in that country confirmed to the team in Houston that the virus was more closely related to SARS than to MERS. As soon as scientists were able to identify the new coronavirus's genetic code, Bottazzi and Hotez began to explore the similarities between it and the SARS virus in closer detail. What they've discovered, they said, is promising.

Not only do the two viruses exhibit similar genetic codes and bind to the same receptors on human cells, new lab experiments appear to show that the blood of patients infected by SARS in 2003 can neutralize the virus that causes COVID-19, meaning some people may have an inherent immunity.


"That's when the little light bulb turned on," Bottazzi said. "We realized that they're so similar that maybe our vaccine is something that can be repurposed for this new outbreak. Even though it may not be the perfect vaccine, it's certainly sufficiently similar that it will provide some added value in reducing the severity of the disease.

For all the good work being done, researchers like Bottazzi and Weaver caution that there is no quick fix for the new coronavirus. Even the most sanguine forecasts - those that assume unpredictable human trials will proceed without a hitch - do not predict a widely used vaccine for the public until well into 2021, at the earliest.

That's simply how long it takes to develop and test a vaccine, to ensure that it's not only effective but safe, in the general population and for groups of patients with specific characteristics. But it's also a reminder of the importance of funding research with uncertain tangible results in times when there's no imminent crisis. The neglect of Hotez and Bottazzi's SARS vaccine is an example of what can happen when research funding freezes up. When funding continues, so can progress.
Three years ago, using a technology developed by microbiologist John Schoggins, of UT - Southwestern Medical Center, in Dallas, researchers began a study that identified a protein produced by the human immune system that can inhibit coronaviruses, including SARS and MERS. With the benefit of multiple grants, Schoggins and his international partners continued their work and determined this February that the same protein inhibits the COVID-19 virus. Any potential for developing this knowledge into a treatment remains years off - but it's years closer than it would have been without continued funding.

Hotez and Bottazzi are hopeful that their vaccine will be tested in clinical trials soon. Once they get funding in place, they said, they could begin testing their vaccine in clinical trials on Texans infected with COVID-19 in as little as six weeks, possibly sooner. The idea that just $3 million - a sum of money amounting to a modest NBA contract - is all that stands in the way is simply too absurd for them to consider it insurmountable. "I'm upbeat because, you know, if I focused on my frustration, I could just sit down and cry," said Bottazzi, forcing a smile twelve hours into a day that began, like so many recently, with buzzing text messages from researchers around the world at 3 a.m. "I mean, the frustration is invigorating us to do a hundred thousand things at the same time."

As we spoke, Hotez's iPhone began buzzing. On the line: a reporter from 60 Minutes. Normally a great opportunity, as far as interviews spotlighting academic work are concerned, but not the audience the researchers were truly seeking. Who they really wanted to talk to, they said, was somebody in the federal government with the power to fast-track the testing of their vaccine.

Even now, when everything is going crazy and we should have all the resources at our command to move this forward, we're still getting these emails that say, 'Here's a request for applications,'" Hotez said, referring to government agencies that have asked his team to apply for grant money, a process that would take months at best.

Navigating America's sprawling, regulation-clogged public health infrastructure is a familiar challenge to researchers, of course. Hotez has recently become more strident in his public remarks. When he testified before the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology on March 5, he said that by failing to fund vaccine development when the private sector wouldn't, the government had missed a major opportunity to avoid a health crisis. "It's tragic that we won't have a vaccine ready for this epidemic," Hotez said then. "Practically speaking, we'll be fighting these outbreaks with one hand tied behind our backs."

In the meantime, he and Bottazzi have pivoted to soliciting the investment they need from regional philanthropists. Bottazzi, who was born in Italy but has spent thirty years in Texas, has shaped her appeal around a theme that Texans are uniquely receptive to: bragging rights. "It would be fantastic to say that Houston has one of the first vaccines [for COVID19] being evaluated," she said. "How could that not resonate?"

Yes, they're promoting their prior work so they can get funding. No one's biting. That's the tell tale, not that scientists who spent years on something no one is jumping on, even now when everyone's looking to find a vaccine, and is all you need to know.
What you're saying isn't according to the laboratory's position. It's directly contrary to it:
Quote:

Dr. James LeDuc, director of the Galveston National Laboratory, said work has resumed on the SARS vaccine that his researchers helped develop with Hotez's team. The laboratory, a high-security biocontainment facility on Texas' Gulf Coast, received a live sample of the new coronavirus last month and will use it to test the vaccine in mice.

But first the lab must breed a colony of mice genetically engineered to replicate the human disease, a process that LeDuc said will take months.

"I think we as a nation and as a society need to be more agile in recognizing that new diseases do occur, and once they've cropped up, they very well may come again, maybe not the same but very similar," said LeDuc, who formerly directed influenza response efforts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "So it was a shame that we had to stop that work and now are having to try and restart it."

For weeks, Hotez has been reaching out to pharmaceutical companies and federal scientific agencies and even the Medical Research Council in the United Kingdom asking them to provide the roughly $3 million needed to begin testing the vaccine's safety in humans, but so far none have done so.

"We've had some conversations with big pharma companies in recent weeks about our vaccine, and literally one said, 'Well, we're holding back to see if this thing comes back year after year,'" Hotez said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091


You aren't grasping what's actually happening. Billions are being thrown around to find a vaccine. This lab is griping because they can't get $3 million to start up what they say has promise from work done years ago. If it had promise it would get the funding. In fact I don't even know what we're debating at this point. If this particular vaccine had any promise it would be being worked on. It's not. There is other science out of this lab that is getting funding and being worked on to see if it can be a potential Covid vaccine.
You're debating with yourself at this point. You started by claiming that vaccine research was futile. I pointed out a specific example that was promising, and you're attempting to refute it by pointing to other research that you claim is even more promising.

In any case, there is ongoing work based on the old SARS-1 research. They are having trouble getting sufficient funding, for which they blame recalcitrant pharmaceutical companies and politicians. They're far from being the only ones. Perhaps most notoriously, back in April the NIH canceled funding for research on bat coronaviruses in China, a program of long standing that received stellar reviews from peers.
Jacques Strap
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Texas Medical Center
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Houston Methodist "COVID-19 Cases by Day". Click scroll to 2nd chart.
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/-/media/pdf/for-patients/Coronavirus/covid-19-stats.ashx

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States (per 100,000 people)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
-- 08 13 2020 --
NJ 179
NY 169
FL 41
TX 33
CA 27

Total number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States by state
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102807/coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-us-americans-by-state/
- 8-13-2020 --
CA 591k (39.5M population)
FL 551k (21.4M)
TX 524k (29M)
NY 423k (19.4M)
GA 226k (10.6M)

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-25..&country=~USA

CDC Pneumonia Deaths and COVID-19 Deaths since 2/1/2020. Click for age group breakdown. Pneumonia more deadly for the young <24 years old, then it begins to even out.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
-- 02/01/2020 to 08/01/2020 --
COVID-19 Deaths 149,192
Pneumonia Deaths 156,111






Jacques Strap
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Osodecentx said:

Jacques Strap said:



Some of the states such as FL TX GA TN etc. seem to have found a balance between softer lockdowns while still maintain hospital capacity. I wonder if that is where Europe is headed.
I agree with this. Restaurants and retailers in Tx have hope. They're open, every if only partially..

I believe there will be a surge of cases when schools open. We'll see how these cases are managed.

Around here some local private schools start next week and are opening 5 days a week in person attendance. AFAIK some public districts are 2 days in-person 3 days remote unless a student elects all 5 days remote. Others are 100% remote or 100% in person (no hybrid) and some are 100% remote. It will be interesting to watch. Some studies from Europe suggest no more spread via schools than other public spaces. We're about to see what happens as some of these schools open.
ATL Bear
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Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

We're in full on burn through, so embrace it. No magic science is around the corner to save us. There has never been a coronavirus vaccine for any strain. We will continue to get better at symptom treatment, but that's it, and is why deaths have decoupled from case growth.

I'm sure someone will come up with some half measure immune booster that shows limited prevention, sort of like the flu vaccine, but our best weapon will be our own natural boosting of our defense through T cell immune responses. A little courage and less fear is way over due.
Scientists know we're looking for the least bad of many bad outcomes. There's no magical thinking involved. Flu vaccines are effective. We were close to a vaccine for SARS-1 when the epidemic died down and people lost interest. We're paying the price for it now. If we pay a higher price next time (and there will be a next time), it will be because of attitudes like this. What's overdue is a little longer attention span and a little more concern for something besides the next football season.
The vaccine from SARS1 was only claimed to be effective. It never got to trials. If it were that close and/or effective, it would already be spun up now. But it isn't.
There's absolutely no basis for this claim, except that it happens to serve the burn-through agenda. The vaccine was never tested because there was no funding. The SARS scare was over, and investors lost interest. They can't flip a switch and produce immediate results just because we're ready for them now.
If it had efficacy as a SARS vaccine they would have spun it up now. It did not.
According to whom?
According to the Galveston National laboratory who hasn't moved forward or gotten any funding for it, but has and is working on other vaccine and research advances for Covid 19.
Source?
https://www.utmb.edu/gnl/news/2020/05/05/texas-monthly-inside-the-frantic-and-frustrating-race-to-develop-a-covid-19-vaccine-in-texas
From your link:
Quote:

"As soon as we knew this was a coronavirus, we felt we had to jump at it," McLellan told UT News, "because we could be one of the first ones to get this structure. We knew exactly what mutations to put into this, because we've already shown these mutations work for a bunch of other coronaviruses."

His comments parallel those of Hotez and Bottazzi. As COVID-19 was racing through China in January, a research contact in that country confirmed to the team in Houston that the virus was more closely related to SARS than to MERS. As soon as scientists were able to identify the new coronavirus's genetic code, Bottazzi and Hotez began to explore the similarities between it and the SARS virus in closer detail. What they've discovered, they said, is promising.

Not only do the two viruses exhibit similar genetic codes and bind to the same receptors on human cells, new lab experiments appear to show that the blood of patients infected by SARS in 2003 can neutralize the virus that causes COVID-19, meaning some people may have an inherent immunity.


"That's when the little light bulb turned on," Bottazzi said. "We realized that they're so similar that maybe our vaccine is something that can be repurposed for this new outbreak. Even though it may not be the perfect vaccine, it's certainly sufficiently similar that it will provide some added value in reducing the severity of the disease.

For all the good work being done, researchers like Bottazzi and Weaver caution that there is no quick fix for the new coronavirus. Even the most sanguine forecasts - those that assume unpredictable human trials will proceed without a hitch - do not predict a widely used vaccine for the public until well into 2021, at the earliest.

That's simply how long it takes to develop and test a vaccine, to ensure that it's not only effective but safe, in the general population and for groups of patients with specific characteristics. But it's also a reminder of the importance of funding research with uncertain tangible results in times when there's no imminent crisis. The neglect of Hotez and Bottazzi's SARS vaccine is an example of what can happen when research funding freezes up. When funding continues, so can progress.
Three years ago, using a technology developed by microbiologist John Schoggins, of UT - Southwestern Medical Center, in Dallas, researchers began a study that identified a protein produced by the human immune system that can inhibit coronaviruses, including SARS and MERS. With the benefit of multiple grants, Schoggins and his international partners continued their work and determined this February that the same protein inhibits the COVID-19 virus. Any potential for developing this knowledge into a treatment remains years off - but it's years closer than it would have been without continued funding.

Hotez and Bottazzi are hopeful that their vaccine will be tested in clinical trials soon. Once they get funding in place, they said, they could begin testing their vaccine in clinical trials on Texans infected with COVID-19 in as little as six weeks, possibly sooner. The idea that just $3 million - a sum of money amounting to a modest NBA contract - is all that stands in the way is simply too absurd for them to consider it insurmountable. "I'm upbeat because, you know, if I focused on my frustration, I could just sit down and cry," said Bottazzi, forcing a smile twelve hours into a day that began, like so many recently, with buzzing text messages from researchers around the world at 3 a.m. "I mean, the frustration is invigorating us to do a hundred thousand things at the same time."

As we spoke, Hotez's iPhone began buzzing. On the line: a reporter from 60 Minutes. Normally a great opportunity, as far as interviews spotlighting academic work are concerned, but not the audience the researchers were truly seeking. Who they really wanted to talk to, they said, was somebody in the federal government with the power to fast-track the testing of their vaccine.

Even now, when everything is going crazy and we should have all the resources at our command to move this forward, we're still getting these emails that say, 'Here's a request for applications,'" Hotez said, referring to government agencies that have asked his team to apply for grant money, a process that would take months at best.

Navigating America's sprawling, regulation-clogged public health infrastructure is a familiar challenge to researchers, of course. Hotez has recently become more strident in his public remarks. When he testified before the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology on March 5, he said that by failing to fund vaccine development when the private sector wouldn't, the government had missed a major opportunity to avoid a health crisis. "It's tragic that we won't have a vaccine ready for this epidemic," Hotez said then. "Practically speaking, we'll be fighting these outbreaks with one hand tied behind our backs."

In the meantime, he and Bottazzi have pivoted to soliciting the investment they need from regional philanthropists. Bottazzi, who was born in Italy but has spent thirty years in Texas, has shaped her appeal around a theme that Texans are uniquely receptive to: bragging rights. "It would be fantastic to say that Houston has one of the first vaccines [for COVID19] being evaluated," she said. "How could that not resonate?"

Yes, they're promoting their prior work so they can get funding. No one's biting. That's the tell tale, not that scientists who spent years on something no one is jumping on, even now when everyone's looking to find a vaccine, and is all you need to know.
What you're saying isn't according to the laboratory's position. It's directly contrary to it:
Quote:

Dr. James LeDuc, director of the Galveston National Laboratory, said work has resumed on the SARS vaccine that his researchers helped develop with Hotez's team. The laboratory, a high-security biocontainment facility on Texas' Gulf Coast, received a live sample of the new coronavirus last month and will use it to test the vaccine in mice.

But first the lab must breed a colony of mice genetically engineered to replicate the human disease, a process that LeDuc said will take months.

"I think we as a nation and as a society need to be more agile in recognizing that new diseases do occur, and once they've cropped up, they very well may come again, maybe not the same but very similar," said LeDuc, who formerly directed influenza response efforts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "So it was a shame that we had to stop that work and now are having to try and restart it."

For weeks, Hotez has been reaching out to pharmaceutical companies and federal scientific agencies and even the Medical Research Council in the United Kingdom asking them to provide the roughly $3 million needed to begin testing the vaccine's safety in humans, but so far none have done so.

"We've had some conversations with big pharma companies in recent weeks about our vaccine, and literally one said, 'Well, we're holding back to see if this thing comes back year after year,'" Hotez said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091


You aren't grasping what's actually happening. Billions are being thrown around to find a vaccine. This lab is griping because they can't get $3 million to start up what they say has promise from work done years ago. If it had promise it would get the funding. In fact I don't even know what we're debating at this point. If this particular vaccine had any promise it would be being worked on. It's not. There is other science out of this lab that is getting funding and being worked on to see if it can be a potential Covid vaccine.
You're debating with yourself at this point. You started by claiming that vaccine research was futile. I pointed out a specific example that was promising, and you're attempting to refute it by pointing to other research that you claim is even more promising.

In any case, there is ongoing work based on the old SARS-1 research. They are having trouble getting sufficient funding, for which they blame recalcitrant pharmaceutical companies and politicians. They're far from being the only ones. Perhaps most notoriously, back in April the NIH canceled funding for research on bat coronaviruses in China, a program of long standing that received stellar reviews from peers.
I was focused on this one vaccine candidate not all candidates. I said if it had efficacy it would be funded and being researched. It isn't so end of story I guess. Nearly every scientist in every research lab throughout the world has lamented at some point a eureka idea not getting serious consideration from superiors, government or private funding. Fauci explained why SARS-1 candidates didn't show promise for a Covid vaccine, not that they aren't using data to help with new research. But we should definitely press on wherever we can. I think better immune-therapy that treats symptoms and limits severity will be the real breakthrough. We've already done that to some level which is why deaths have decoupled from case volume.
Doc Holliday
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3 months turns into 6 months. 6 months turns into cultural norm.

We start becoming China
whitetrash
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Doc Holliday said:



3 months turns into 6 months. 6 months turns into cultural norm.

We start becoming China
How will Joe know if everyone is wearing a mask if he's not let out of the basement for the next 3 months?

Doc Holliday
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whitetrash said:

Doc Holliday said:



3 months turns into 6 months. 6 months turns into cultural norm.

We start becoming China
How will Joe know if everyone is wearing a mask if he's not let out of the basement for the next 3 months?


Jacques Strap
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I was wearing a mask to Kroger and Lowe's well before it was mandated where I live, but I'm not wearing a mask to mow the grass or walk the dog.
Canada2017
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US death count is now 169,667 with over 5,384,662 confirmed cases .

Over 13,000 deaths in the last 2 weeks.






Doc Holliday
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Seriously, the feel like temp today is 116. People will die if they wear masks like that in the heat.

Also, if there's an outdoor.indoor mask federal mandate, there's probably going to be steep fines associated with not complying, maybe even jail time.
quash
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ATL Bear said:


I think better immune-therapy that treats symptoms and limits severity will be the real breakthrough. We've already done that to some level which is why deaths have decoupled from case volume.
Part of it is treatment, part of it is people taking responsibility for their own health despite being called all manner of names.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
Osodecentx
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Do you have an opinion about whether a MMR vaccination at this time might help the immune systems? I did not have one when young (vaccine didn't exist).

I'll be asking Atl as well
Jacques Strap
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Now that's funny.

ATL Bear
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quash said:

ATL Bear said:


I think better immune-therapy that treats symptoms and limits severity will be the real breakthrough. We've already done that to some level which is why deaths have decoupled from case volume.
Part of it is treatment, part of it is people taking responsibility for their own health despite being called all manner of names.
Not sure I understand.
Jacques Strap
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Osodecentx said:

Do you have an opinion about whether a MMR vaccination at this time might help the immune systems? I did not have one when young (vaccine didn't exist).

I'll be asking Atl as well
I'm no vaccine expert so no opinion on MMR and if would help.

Personal opinion on COVID vaccine (as of today at least) ... I am skeptical that we will ever get a vaccine and certainly don't want to be the first in line to take it.
Jacques Strap
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New Zealand

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/asia/new-zealand-coronavirus-lockdown-intl-hnk/index.html

Earlier Friday, New Zealand's Director General of Health Dr. Ashley Bloomfield announced another 12 locally-transmitted coronavirus cases. There are now 49 active cases in New Zealand to 49, 29 of which are linked to the recent outbreak.

Under level three restrictions, people will be told to stay home aside for essential personal movement, schools will operate at limited capacity, and public venues such as museums, playgrounds and gyms will remain shut.

France
https://www.france24.com/en/20200812-france-sees-highest-new-daily-virus-cases-since-may

More than 2,500 new coronavirus cases were registered in France in 24 hours in the sharpest increase since May, government data showed on Wednesday, as officials said indicators were "clearly worsening".

Spain
https://www.france24.com/en/20200813-two-months-after-taming-infections-with-lockdown-spain-faces-new-covid-19-surge
[url=https://www.facebook.com/dialog/share?app_id=121241974571942&href=http%3A%2F%2Ff24.my%2F6lnu.F&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.france24.com%2Fen%2F20200813-two-months-after-taming-infections-with-lockdown-spain-faces-new-covid-19-surge&locale=en_US][/url][url=https://web.whatsapp.com/send?text=Two%20months%20after%20taming%20infections%20with%20lockdown%2C%20Spain%20faces%20new%20Covid-19%20surge%20-%20http%3A%2F%2Ff24.my%2F6lnu.W][/url][url=https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Ff24.my%2F6lnu.T&via=FRANCE24&related=France24_en&text=Two%20months%20after%20taming%20infections%20with%20lockdown%2C%20Spain%20faces%20new%20Covid-19%20surge&lang=en][/url]
Two months after taming infections with lockdown, Spain faces new Covid-19 surge

UK
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/euro-stocks-tumble-6-countries-added-uk-quarantine-list-2020-8-1029504603
European stocks tumble after the UK adds six more countries to its COVID-19 travel quarantine list

India
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/explained/article/3097265/cases-soar-how-bad-indias-coronavirus-situation
India has the world's third-highest number of Covid-19 cases and fourth-highest death toll, overtaking Britain

TEXAS
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html#link-4163d180
For the past week, Texas added an average of about 7,560 cases per day, compared to a peak seven-day average of over 10,000 cases per day in mid-July. Gov. Greg Abbott, meeting with leaders in Texas's sprawling Gulf Coast region to discuss his Covid-19 strategy, strongly suggested Tuesday that hospitalizations and cases from the virus remained far too high to allow a swift relaxation of business closures and other restrictions.

Osodecentx
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Jacques Strap said:

Osodecentx said:

Do you have an opinion about whether a MMR vaccination at this time might help the immune systems? I did not have one when young (vaccine didn't exist).

I'll be asking Atl as well
I'm no vaccine expert so no opinion on MMR and if would help.

Personal opinion on COVID vaccine (as of today at least) ... I am skeptical that we will ever get a vaccine and certainly don't want to be the first in line to take it.

Thanks
Doc Holliday
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But Europe handled everything so perfectly. How could this happen?!!



Booray
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Jacques Strap said:

Osodecentx said:

Jacques Strap said:



Some of the states such as FL TX GA TN etc. seem to have found a balance between softer lockdowns while still maintain hospital capacity. I wonder if that is where Europe is headed.
I agree with this. Restaurants and retailers in Tx have hope. They're open, every if only partially..

I believe there will be a surge of cases when schools open. We'll see how these cases are managed.

Around here some local private schools start next week and are opening 5 days a week in person attendance. AFAIK some public districts are 2 days in-person 3 days remote unless a student elects all 5 days remote. Others are 100% remote or 100% in person (no hybrid) and some are 100% remote. It will be interesting to watch. Some studies from Europe suggest no more spread via schools than other public spaces. We're about to see what happens as some of these schools open.
My wife is opening a private school next week. Pre-K through 6th. Relatively small class sizes. They invested in a state of the art filtration system for the building; mobile air purifiers for each room; Plexiglas dividers on the desks; tents and tables for as much outdoor learning as possible; students stay in their classrooms, instead of moving around; no communal lunch; masks for everyone age 10+ are mandatory, encouraged for the little ones; temperature checks and screening at every ingress.

If parents are not comfortable with that, they have a robust online option.

To make all that work, there was a significant financial investment and a huge amount of effort by the staff.

I think it can be done, but you had to approach the task with urgency and commitment all summer. I am afraid most schools just don't have that.
Jacques Strap
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Booray said:

Jacques Strap said:

Osodecentx said:

Jacques Strap said:



Some of the states such as FL TX GA TN etc. seem to have found a balance between softer lockdowns while still maintain hospital capacity. I wonder if that is where Europe is headed.
I agree with this. Restaurants and retailers in Tx have hope. They're open, every if only partially..

I believe there will be a surge of cases when schools open. We'll see how these cases are managed.

Around here some local private schools start next week and are opening 5 days a week in person attendance. AFAIK some public districts are 2 days in-person 3 days remote unless a student elects all 5 days remote. Others are 100% remote or 100% in person (no hybrid) and some are 100% remote. It will be interesting to watch. Some studies from Europe suggest no more spread via schools than other public spaces. We're about to see what happens as some of these schools open.
My wife is opening a private school next week. Pre-K through 6th. Relatively small class sizes. They invested in a state of the art filtration system for the building; mobile air purifiers for each room; Plexiglas dividers on the desks; tents and tables for as much outdoor learning as possible; students stay in their classrooms, instead of moving around; no communal lunch; masks for everyone age 10+ are mandatory, encouraged for the little ones; temperature checks and screening at every ingress.

If parents are not comfortable with that, they have a robust online option.

To make all that work, there was a significant financial investment and a huge amount of effort by the staff.

I think it can be done, but you had to approach the task with urgency and commitment all summer. I am afraid most schools just don't have that.
Best of luck and please keep us updated on how things are going.
4th and Inches
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Booray said:

Jacques Strap said:

Osodecentx said:

Jacques Strap said:



Some of the states such as FL TX GA TN etc. seem to have found a balance between softer lockdowns while still maintain hospital capacity. I wonder if that is where Europe is headed.
I agree with this. Restaurants and retailers in Tx have hope. They're open, every if only partially..

I believe there will be a surge of cases when schools open. We'll see how these cases are managed.

Around here some local private schools start next week and are opening 5 days a week in person attendance. AFAIK some public districts are 2 days in-person 3 days remote unless a student elects all 5 days remote. Others are 100% remote or 100% in person (no hybrid) and some are 100% remote. It will be interesting to watch. Some studies from Europe suggest no more spread via schools than other public spaces. We're about to see what happens as some of these schools open.
My wife is opening a private school next week. Pre-K through 6th. Relatively small class sizes. They invested in a state of the art filtration system for the building; mobile air purifiers for each room; Plexiglas dividers on the desks; tents and tables for as much outdoor learning as possible; students stay in their classrooms, instead of moving around; no communal lunch; masks for everyone age 10+ are mandatory, encouraged for the little ones; temperature checks and screening at every ingress.

If parents are not comfortable with that, they have a robust online option.

To make all that work, there was a significant financial investment and a huge amount of effort by the staff.

I think it can be done, but you had to approach the task with urgency and commitment all summer. I am afraid most schools just don't have that.
my wife's private school is doing alot of those things as well. They have 90% or so signed up for in classroom learning.
Osodecentx
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If you recover from the virus, you're protected for up to three months, the C.D.C. says.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated their guidance recently to suggest that people who have recovered from the virus can safely mingle with others for three months.
It was a remarkable addition to the body of guidance from the agency, and the first acknowledgment that immunity to the virus may persist for at least three months.
In June, a study found that antibody levels could wane over a course of two to three months in people with confirmed infections who experienced mild symptoms or no symptoms. They drop off, but they may still be present at low levels, including below the limit of detection.
The latest C.D.C. guidance which was tucked into public recommendations about who needs to quarantine goes a bit further.

"People who have tested positive for Covid-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to three months as long as they do not develop symptoms again," the guidance says. "People who develop symptoms again within three months of their first bout of Covid-19 may need to be tested again if there is no other cause identified for their symptoms."
Other coronaviruses, including those that cause SARS and MERS, have antibodies that scientists believe last about a year. In the early days of the virus's spread in the United States, scientists had hoped antibodies to the new virus would last at least that long.
A study published in May found that people who recovered from the infection could return to work safely, but it was still unclear how long they might be protected.
Doctors have reported some cases of people who seemed to be infected a second time after recovery, but experts have said those are more likely to represent a re-emergence of symptoms from the initial bout.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-4e074838
riflebear
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Booray
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Gruvin said:

Booray said:

Jacques Strap said:

Osodecentx said:

Jacques Strap said:



Some of the states such as FL TX GA TN etc. seem to have found a balance between softer lockdowns while still maintain hospital capacity. I wonder if that is where Europe is headed.
I agree with this. Restaurants and retailers in Tx have hope. They're open, every if only partially..

I believe there will be a surge of cases when schools open. We'll see how these cases are managed.

Around here some local private schools start next week and are opening 5 days a week in person attendance. AFAIK some public districts are 2 days in-person 3 days remote unless a student elects all 5 days remote. Others are 100% remote or 100% in person (no hybrid) and some are 100% remote. It will be interesting to watch. Some studies from Europe suggest no more spread via schools than other public spaces. We're about to see what happens as some of these schools open.
My wife is opening a private school next week. Pre-K through 6th. Relatively small class sizes. They invested in a state of the art filtration system for the building; mobile air purifiers for each room; Plexiglas dividers on the desks; tents and tables for as much outdoor learning as possible; students stay in their classrooms, instead of moving around; no communal lunch; masks for everyone age 10+ are mandatory, encouraged for the little ones; temperature checks and screening at every ingress.

If parents are not comfortable with that, they have a robust online option.

To make all that work, there was a significant financial investment and a huge amount of effort by the staff.

I think it can be done, but you had to approach the task with urgency and commitment all summer. I am afraid most schools just don't have that.
my wife's private school is doing alot of those things as well. They have 90% or so signed up for in classroom learning.
That is about the same percentage as at ours.

I feel awful for those kids who are in urban districts and who are otherwise motivated students. One of the central ideas of America is that if you are willing to work hard you will have an opportunity for a better life. That starts with education. As much as we complain about public education, I have always felt that a properly parented and motivated kid can get what they need out of almost any school. Not sure that will be the case this year.
Jacques Strap
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Osodecentx said:

If you recover from the virus, you're protected for up to three months, the C.D.C. says.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated their guidance recently to suggest that people who have recovered from the virus can safely mingle with others for three months.



My first thought was does this mean the vaccine may only work for 3 months?

My second thought was.. the vaccine companies are going to make a fortune dosing people 4 times a year.
Osodecentx
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Jacques Strap said:

Osodecentx said:

If you recover from the virus, you're protected for up to three months, the C.D.C. says.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated their guidance recently to suggest that people who have recovered from the virus can safely mingle with others for three months.



My first thought was does this mean the vaccine may only work for 3 months?

My second thought was.. the vaccine companies are going to make a fortune dosing people 4 times a year.
I think the virus is a moving target, e.g. it will mutate just like the seasonal flu virus. I think those who contracted the virus and got well will have lighter cases if they contract it again. If they ever get a vaccine, those who take it will have lighter cases, just like the seasonal flu.
Jacques Strap
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Texas Medical Center
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Houston Methodist "COVID-19 Cases by Day". Click scroll to 2nd chart.
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/-/media/pdf/for-patients/Coronavirus/covid-19-stats.ashx

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States (per 100,000 people)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
-- 08 13 2020 --
NJ 179
NY 169
GA 43
FL 41
TX 33
CA 27

Total number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States by state
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102807/coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-us-americans-by-state/
- 8-14-2020 --
CA 603k (39.5M population)
FL 557k (21.4M)
TX 530k (29M)
NY 423k (19.4M)
GA 228k (10.6M)

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-25..&country=~USA

CDC Pneumonia Deaths and COVID-19 Deaths since 2/1/2020. Click for age group breakdown.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
-- 02/01/2020 to 08/08/2020 --
COVID-19 Deaths 149,192
Pneumonia Deaths 156,111

Excess Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm



Jacques Strap
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Positive news about vitamin D keeps surfacing. I'm about to go get some mowing the yard.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/trials-seek-to-answer-if-vitamin-d-could-help-in-covid-19-67817

In clinical studies worldwide, researchers are testing the possibility that supplements of the vitamin could prevent or decrease the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections.
Osodecentx
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Jacques Strap said:

Osodecentx said:

Do you have an opinion about whether a MMR vaccination at this time might help the immune systems? I did not have one when young (vaccine didn't exist).

I'll be asking Atl as well
I'm no vaccine expert so no opinion on MMR and if would help.

Personal opinion on COVID vaccine (as of today at least) ... I am skeptical that we will ever get a vaccine and certainly don't want to be the first in line to take it.

I have no expertise but it seems reasonable. FYI.

https://www.uspharmacist.com/article/researchers-mmr-vaccine-could-protect-against-covid19
Researchers: MMR Vaccine Could Protect Against COVID-19
By staff
Live attenuated vaccines sometimes are effective beyond the providing immunity for the targeted pathogen, according to a new study. That's why the authors suggest that the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine might help reduce septic inflammation associated with COVID-19 infection.

An article in mBio, a journal of the American Society for Microbiology, suggests that could be the case.

The co-authorsspouses Paul Fidel, Jr., PhD, of Louisiana State University Health School of Dentistry and Mairi Noverr, PhD, of Tulane University School of Medicine, both in New Orleanswrote a perspective article on the topic.

The authors emphasize that vaccination with MMR in immunocompetent individuals has no contraindications and might be especially effective for healthcare workers who are at risk of exposure to COVID-19.

"Live attenuated vaccines seemingly have some nonspecific benefits as well as immunity to the target pathogen. A clinical trial with MMR in high-risk populations may provide a low-risk-high-reward preventive measure in saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic," Dr. Fidel points out, "While we are conducting the clinical trials, I don't think it's going to hurt anybody to have an MMR vaccine that would protect against the measles, mumps, and rubella with this potential added benefit of helping against COVID-19."

In an experiment, the authors demonstrated that vaccination with a live attenuated fungal strain induced trained innate protection against lethal polymicrobial sepsis. They explain that the protection was mediated by long-lived myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) previously reported to inhibit septic inflammation and mortality in several experimental models. The researchers posit that an MMR vaccine should be able to induce MDSCs to reduce the severe lung inflammation/sepsis that is associated with COVID-19 and is strongly associated with mortality in the infection.

Drs. Fidel and Noverr raise the possibility, for example, that milder symptoms among 955 sailors on the U.S.S Roosevelt who tested positive for COVID-19which led to only one hospitalizationmight have been a result of universal MMR vaccination of Navy recruits. They add that epidemiological data suggests a correlation between people in geographical locations routinely receiving the MMR vaccine and reduced COVID-19 death rates.

COVID-19's lesser impact on children also is an issue, according to the authors, possibly because of their more recent exposure to live attenuated vaccines that can also induce the trained suppressive MDSCs that limit inflammation and sepsis. The researchers propose a clinical trial to test whether the MMR vaccine can protect against COVID-19, but also urge that adults, especially healthcare workers and individuals in nursing homes, get the MMR vaccine.

"If adults got the MMR as a child, they likely still have some level of antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella, but probably not the myeloid-derived suppressor cells," Dr. Fidel emphasizes. "While the MDSCs are long-lived, they are not life-long cells. So, a booster MMR would enhance the antibodies to measles, mumps, and rubella and reinitiate the MDSCs. We would hope that the MDSCs induced by the MMR would have a fairly good life-span to get through the critical time of the pandemic."

"Following the lead of other countries conducting clinical trials with the live attenuated Mycobacterium bovis BCG (BCG) vaccine under a similar concept, a clinical trial with MMR in high-risk populations may provide a 'low-riskhigh-reward' preventive measure in saving lives during this unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic," the authors write.
Booray
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Jacques Strap said:

Positive news about vitamin D keeps surfacing. I'm about to go get some mowing the yard.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/trials-seek-to-answer-if-vitamin-d-could-help-in-covid-19-67817

In clinical studies worldwide, researchers are testing the possibility that supplements of the vitamin could prevent or decrease the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Vitamin D has been abundant this week.
Osodecentx
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Booray said:

Jacques Strap said:

Positive news about vitamin D keeps surfacing. I'm about to go get some mowing the yard.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/trials-seek-to-answer-if-vitamin-d-could-help-in-covid-19-67817

In clinical studies worldwide, researchers are testing the possibility that supplements of the vitamin could prevent or decrease the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Vitamin D has been abundant this week.

Overdose in Waco
Jacques Strap
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Just one guy's take, but an interesting (long) Sunday read.

https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why/
NYC IS DEAD FOREVER HERE'S WHY

RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Jacques Strap said:

Just one guy's take, but an interesting (long) Sunday read.

https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why/
NYC IS DEAD FOREVER HERE'S WHY


Good read, Jacques.

It is not Covid that has destroyed New York, it is the politicians. People want to live and not live in fear.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
Jacques Strap
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FDA gonna FDA.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/07/coronavirus-testing-regulators-must-stop-blocking-medical-technology/
Out of the Way, FDA

With tests such as Benner's we could test the whole national work force every week, quarantine the infected, release the uninfected, and end the pandemic within two months. Currently 11 percent of the U.S. labor force is unemployed. If 0.5 percent drawn from those out of work were hired to test all 100 percent of the workforce, they would only have to each test 40 people per day in order to test everyone every 5 days. The cost would be substantial in absolute terms, but trivial compared with what we are now shelling out in relief payments, economic dislocation, medical bills, suffering, and deaths.

here is only one thing stopping such an effective program from being implemented, whether at the federal, state, local, company, or individual level. That is the obstinacy of the FDA.

Obtaining FDA approval is impossible for an innovative small biotech company such as Firebird with limited capital. The Firebird test was easily proven with simulated samples. It gives essentially no false positives or false negatives.
quash
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Jacques Strap said:

FDA gonna FDA.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/07/coronavirus-testing-regulators-must-stop-blocking-medical-technology/
Out of the Way, FDA

With tests such as Benner's we could test the whole national work force every week, quarantine the infected, release the uninfected, and end the pandemic within two months. Currently 11 percent of the U.S. labor force is unemployed. If 0.5 percent drawn from those out of work were hired to test all 100 percent of the workforce, they would only have to each test 40 people per day in order to test everyone every 5 days. The cost would be substantial in absolute terms, but trivial compared with what we are now shelling out in relief payments, economic dislocation, medical bills, suffering, and deaths.

here is only one thing stopping such an effective program from being implemented, whether at the federal, state, local, company, or individual level. That is the obstinacy of the FDA.

Obtaining FDA approval is impossible for an innovative small biotech company such as Firebird with limited capital. The Firebird test was easily proven with simulated samples. It gives essentially no false positives or false negatives.
This should have been the plan from the beginning.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
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