https://www.aier.org/article/how-a-free-society-deals-with-pandemics-according-to-legendary-epidemiologist-and-smallpox-eradicator-donald-henderson/

Quote:

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Let me introduce you to Donald A. Henderson (1928-2016). He was the twentieth-century's most acclaimed disease eradicator. In particular, he is credited with ridding the world of smallpox. He was born in Lakewood, Ohio, son of a nurse and an engineer. He went to Oberlin College for undergraduate and graduated in medicine from the University of Rochester. He trained two more years at the Epidemic Intelligence Service of the Communicable Disease Center, and moved to Geneva to head the World Health Organization's division focussed on smallpox.

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Quote:

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Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza. Henderson, though listed last, was the primary author along with co-authors Thomas V.Inglesby, epidemiologist Jennifer B. Nuzzo, and physician Tara O'Toole.

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Quote:

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Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted. Strong political and public health leadership to provide reassurance and to ensure that needed medical care services are provided are critical elements. If either is seen to be less than optimal, a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe.

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Jacques Strap said:

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https://www.aier.org/article/how-a-free-society-deals-with-pandemics-according-to-legendary-epidemiologist-and-smallpox-eradicator-donald-henderson/

Quote:

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Let me introduce you to Donald A. Henderson (1928-2016). He was the twentieth-century's most acclaimed disease eradicator. In particular, he is credited with ridding the world of smallpox. He was born in Lakewood, Ohio, son of a nurse and an engineer. He went to Oberlin College for undergraduate and graduated in medicine from the University of Rochester. He trained two more years at the Epidemic Intelligence Service of the Communicable Disease Center, and moved to Geneva to head the World Health Organization's division focussed on smallpox.

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Quote:

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Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza. Henderson, though listed last, was the primary author along with co-authors Thomas V.Inglesby, epidemiologist Jennifer B. Nuzzo, and physician Tara O'Toole.

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Quote:

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Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted. Strong political and public health leadership to provide reassurance and to ensure that needed medical care services are provided are critical elements. If either is seen to be less than optimal, a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe.

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All I know is that if you avoided buying into the news and the hysteria you've been gifted some of the greatest opportunities of one's lifetime. Epic epic opportunities.

It must really suck to live in Chicago, or be a kid mowing lawns in the suburbs for cash and having tho wear a mask.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pritzker-says-mask-mandate-applies-even-while-outside-walking-around/2321390/

Pritzker Says Mask Mandate Applies Even While 'Outside and Walking Around'

Quote:

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Illinois' mask mandate applies "even outside," Gov. J.B. Pritzker said Wednesday, noting that residents should still be wearing masks even if they're just walking down the street.

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Quote:

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He added that the outdoor concerns still matter in rural parts of the state, as well.

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Jacques Strap said:

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It must really suck to live in Chicago, or be a kid moving lawns in the suburbs for cash and having tho wear a mask.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pritzker-says-mask-mandate-applies-even-while-outside-walking-around/2321390/

Pritzker Says Mask Mandate Applies Even While 'Outside and Walking Around'

Quote:

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Illinois' mask mandate applies "even outside," Gov. J.B. Pritzker said Wednesday, noting that residents should still be wearing masks even if they're just walking down the street.

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Quote:

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He added that the outdoor concerns still matter in rural parts of the state, as well.

---

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Apparently, the Illinois word for '*****' is 'Pritzker'

For those who only listen to MSNBC & CNN and think the administration has been sitting on their hands this whole time.

riflebear said:

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For those who only listen to MSNBC & CNN and think the administration has been sitting on their hands this whole time.

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He should help farmers since he has single handedly bankrupted them

1. Pandemic models have performed poorly, so take this article with a grain of salt.
2. In the herd immunity sweepstakes among populous states, Florida is likely in the lead given their state population and case count. If the CDC estimate for cases (10x positive tests) is accurate, then Florida has immunity among [(573k x 10) / 21.4M = 27% of their population.
3. If immunity only lasts for a few months and then you can be infected again... well...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?auth=login-email&login=email

Quote:

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What if 'Herd Immunity' Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?

To achieve so-called herd immunity the point at which the virus can no longer spread because there are not enough vulnerable humans scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that's true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.

The new estimates result from complicated statistical modeling of the pandemic, and the models have all taken divergent approaches, yielding inconsistent estimates. It is not certain that any community in the world has enough residents now immune to the virus to resist a second wave.

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riflebear said:

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For those who only listen to MSNBC & CNN and think the administration has been sitting on their hands this whole time.

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Sounds like a great program. It was authorized and funded by the Families First Corona virus Relief Act, which had a Democratic sponsor and was passed first in the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives. The Executive appears to have done a good job of implementing the law, but suggesting that this was all Trump's doing is off base.

cinque said:

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riflebear said:

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For those who only listen to MSNBC & CNN and think the administration has been sitting on their hands this whole time.

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He should help farmers since he has single handedly bankrupted them

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Do you know a farmer? I am on farms all the time, havent seen a bankrupt farm yet.

cinque said:

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riflebear said:

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For those who only listen to MSNBC & CNN and think the administration has been sitting on their hands this whole time.

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He should help farmers since he has single handedly bankrupted them

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support your statement

riflebear said:

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For those who only listen to MSNBC & CNN and think the administration has been sitting on their hands this whole time.

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Farmers need bailouts because of Trump's tariffs.

Texas Medical Center
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Houston Methodist "COVID-19 Cases by Day". Click scroll to 2nd chart.
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/-/media/pdf/for-patients/Coronavirus/covid-19-stats.ashx

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States (per 100,000 people)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
---------
NJ 179
NY 169
FL 44
TX 36
CA 28

Total number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States by state
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102807/coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-us-americans-by-state/
-----
CA 624k (39.5M population)
FL 573k (21.4M)
TX 555k (29M)
NY 425k (19.4M) (Case count may be too low due to lack of testing availability in March/April)
GA 237k (10.6M)

Herd Immunity? (Cases x10 CDC multiplier) / Population
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
(Multipler range may be 6 to 24 https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ )
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
CA 16%
FL 27%
TX 19%
NY 22%
GA 22%


Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-25..&country=~USA

High School News
One school stays open
One school goes remote for 14 days

https://wreg.com/news/two-more-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-at-corinth-high-school-one-week-after-classes-resume/

CORINTH, Miss. Five total coronavirus cases have been confirmed at Corinth High School, school officials said on Instagram Tuesday.

After school on Monday, school leaders learned of two more individuals who tested postiive. Those individuals and anyone who had prolonged exposure to them have been told to quarantine for 14 days. They will not be allowed to attend school and will have to attend virtually until two weeks has passed.

Last week was the first week back at school for students in Corinth.

As one of the first districts to resume in-person classes, the school district assured parents it is in constant contact with the Mississippi State Department of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about safety measures.

===============
https://wreg.com/news/coronavirus/harding-academy-confirms-covid-19-cases/
MEMPHIS, Tenn. Harding Academy confirmed Monday it is experiencing multiple confirmed cases of COVID-19 among athletic teams in its high school.

Harding Head of School Trent Williamson said all athletics have been suspended and students in grades 9-12 have been transitioned to virtual learning for the next two weeks.

Lower grades were open for in-person instruction, though parents in lower and middle school could choose virtual instruction.

Williamson did not say how many students were thought to be infected or in contact with the virus.
"We are working closely with the Shelby County Health Department to ensure we are following all protocols to protect the health and safety of our students and faculty," Williams said in a statement.

According to Harding Academy's web site, the East Memphis private school returned to instruction Aug. 10.

Jacques Strap said:

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===============
https://wreg.com/news/coronavirus/harding-academy-confirms-covid-19-cases/
MEMPHIS, Tenn. Harding Academy confirmed Monday it is experiencing multiple confirmed cases of COVID-19 among athletic teams in its high school.

Harding Head of School Trent Williamson said all athletics have been suspended and students in grades 9-12 have been transitioned to virtual learning for the next two weeks.

Lower grades were open for in-person instruction, though parents in lower and middle school could choose virtual instruction.

Williamson did not say how many students were thought to be infected or in contact with the virus.
"We are working closely with the Shelby County Health Department to ensure we are following all protocols to protect the health and safety of our students and faculty," Williams said in a statement.

According to Harding Academy's web site, the East Memphis private school returned to instruction Aug. 10.

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Church of Christ school. Perhaps the presence of musical instruments keeps the virus at bay.

riflebear said:

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---

I have no idea whether that's an accurate description of the IC's process, but his basic point is that they relied on an early, uncertain estimate of 0.66% for the infection fatality rate. The latest estimate, based on all currently available information and posted on the CDC's website, is 0.65%. And according to the scientists who calculated it, it's probably low. So once again it looks like the IC did something right.

Texas Medical Center
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Houston Methodist "COVID-19 Cases by Day". Click scroll to 2nd chart.
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/-/media/pdf/for-patients/Coronavirus/covid-19-stats.ashx

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States (per 100,000 people)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
----
NJ 179
NY 169
FL 44
TX 36
CA 29

Total number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States by state
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102807/coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-us-americans-by-state/
---
CA 634k (39.5M population)
FL 576k (21.4M)
TX 561k (29M)
NY 426k (19.4M) (Case count may be too low due to lack of testing availability in March/April)
GA 239k (10.6M)

Herd Immunity Sweepstakes (Cases x10 CDC multiplier) / Population
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
(Multipler range may be 6 to 24 https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ )
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html | 43%? Tom Britton, Stockholm University.puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses
CA 16%
FL 27%
TX 19%
NY 22%
GA 23%

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-25..&country=~USA
Big drop in cases last 3 days. Will schools opening in some states cause a spike in 2 weeks?

Jacques Strap said:

---

Texas Medical Center
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Houston Methodist "COVID-19 Cases by Day". Click scroll to 2nd chart.
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/-/media/pdf/for-patients/Coronavirus/covid-19-stats.ashx

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States (per 100,000 people)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
----
NJ 179
NY 169
FL 44
TX 36
CA 29

Total number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States by state
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102807/coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-us-americans-by-state/
---
CA 634k (39.5M population)
FL 576k (21.4M)
TX 561k (29M)
NY 426k (19.4M) (Case count may be too low due to lack of testing availability in March/April)
GA 239k (10.6M)

Herd Immunity Sweepstakes (Cases x10 CDC multiplier) / Population
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
(Multipler range may be 6 to 24 https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ )
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html | 43%? Tom Britton, Stockholm University.puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses
CA 16%
FL 27%
TX 19%
NY 22%
GA 23%

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-25..&country=~USA
Big drop in cases last 3 days. Will schools opening in some states cause a spike in 2 weeks?

---

More like a month. But as long as the spike is of the same magnitude as what ahppened n July and responds the same way, we can live with it.

I'm enjoying a cheese chili relleno, enchiladas, guacamole, etc with some sweet tea at a nice TexMex establishment. On the way here, I passed some greasy (but delicious) joints like Popeye's, Panda and J n Box which prohibit dining in.

Meanwhile, the hoardes gather at grocery stores, DIY box stores and retail stores aplenty. Last Monday night, the local Olive Garden had a 30 minute wait to dine in.

Face it. This overblown scare, rife with deceit, "brought to you by..." those who live, eat & breathe deceit & immortality, is starting to wear thin. Close Jack in the Box and open Five Guys to dine in? Really?

100 percent agree with this. Yet lame brains like celebrity Cardi B are outraged about their loss of freedoms and are sucking up to their captors.

Jacques Strap said:

---

Texas Medical Center
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Houston Methodist "COVID-19 Cases by Day". Click scroll to 2nd chart.
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/-/media/pdf/for-patients/Coronavirus/covid-19-stats.ashx

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States (per 100,000 people)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
----
NJ 179
NY 169
FL 44
TX 36
CA 29

Total number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States by state
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102807/coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-us-americans-by-state/
---
CA 634k (39.5M population)
FL 576k (21.4M)
TX 561k (29M)
NY 426k (19.4M) (Case count may be too low due to lack of testing availability in March/April)
GA 239k (10.6M)

Herd Immunity Sweepstakes (Cases x10 CDC multiplier) / Population
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
(Multipler range may be 6 to 24 https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ )
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html | 43%? Tom Britton, Stockholm University.puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses
CA 16%
FL 27%
TX 19%
NY 22%
GA 23%

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-25..&country=~USA
Big drop in cases last 3 days. Will schools opening in some states cause a spike in 2 weeks?

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The school issue is an extremely tough one.

Can see the validity of both sides .

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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100 percent agree with this. Yet lame brains like celebrity Cardi B are outraged about their loss of freedoms and are sucking up to their captors.

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Check out her new number one record

WAP

It's the Dems platform

FL antibody results not far off from back of the envelope herd immunity sweepstakes calculations.

Is Texas doing any antibody testing?

Herd Immunity Sweepstakes (Cases x10 CDC multiplier) / Population
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
(Multipler range may be 6 to 24 https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ )
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html | 43%? Tom Britton, Stockholm University.puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) may be greatly reduced (25%?) if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses
CA 16%
FL 27%
TX 19%
NY 22%
GA 23%

IF school openings spike it shoudl show up in this graph.

July story link that has the graph below embedded that appears to auto update daily
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/us-seven-day-average-of-new-coronavirus-cases-surpass-60000-for-the-first-time.html

Osodecentx said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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Big drop in cases last 3 days. Will schools opening in some states cause a spike in 2 weeks?

---

There will be a surge when kids go to school. As long as hospitals aren't being slammed, we need to press on.
There was a surge after the George Floyd protests in our bigger cities. Houston hospitals became very crowded and Houston pulled back. We may have to pull back again.

---

Agree.

Some states such as FL for example may have a high enough overall case count they may spike but not go back to July levels. Assuming the FL positive case count numbers are not wildly inflated with false positives. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/15/high-coronavirus-positive-case-rate-reveals-flaws-in-florida-department-of-health-report/

Germany, Spain, France, packistan, UK Sween, and possibly Egypt all show they are thru the sespetable burn and decline. Even on the secondary spikes, the death rate is far less.

Gruvin said:

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Germany, Spain, France, Pakistan, UK Sweden, and possibly Egypt all show they are thru the sespetable burn and decline. Even on the secondary spikes, the death rate is far less.

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Your auto-correct has thrown me for a loop, what were you going for there?

quash said:

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Gruvin said:

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Germany, Spain, France, Pakistan, UK Sweden, and possibly Egypt all show they are thru the sespetable burn and decline. Even on the secondary spikes, the death rate is far less.

---

Your auto-correct has thrown me for a loop, what were you going for there?

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the word is supposed to be susceptible. Many of those countries took different routes to prevent viral spread and varying degrees of lockdown. In the end, virus gonna virus. It seems that when a country or population center hits the approx 20% threshold, The cases and death toll decline.

Texas Medical Center:
08-19-2020: -5.7% Daily Growth Rate (averaged over 7 days) in the COVID-19 daily hospital admist trend
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Houston Methodist "COVID-19 Cases by Day". Click scroll to 2nd chart.
08-19-2020: Max COVID-19 patient count 700. Current Count 312
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/-/media/pdf/for-patients/Coronavirus/covid-19-stats.ashx

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-25..&country=~USA

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States (per 100,000 people)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
NJ 179
NY 169
FL 45
TX 37
CA 29

Total number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States by state
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102807/coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-us-americans-by-state/
CA 638k (39.5M population)
FL 580k (21.4M)
TX 569k (29M)
NY 427k (19.4M) (Case count may be too low due to lack of testing availability in March/April)
GA 242k (10.6M) "" ""

Herd Immunity (Cases x10 CDC multiplier) / Population
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
(Multipler range may be 6 to 24 https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ )
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html | 43%? Tom Britton, Stockholm University.puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf | 25%? Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses
CA 16%
FL 27%
TX 20%
NY 22%
GA 23%

Disney reopened Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom on July 11, with Epcot and Hollywood Studios following on July 15..
Beaches are open.
Florida now has less than 5,000 hopitalized with COVID.

https://www.maxpreps.com/news/qiL5GOXkFkyfJ9jwZ8wb-g/where-the-start-of-high-school-sports-stands-in-all-50-states-amid-pandemic.htm

Where the start of high school sports stands in all 50 states
Wednesday, August 19, 2020 1:30pm

Texas The University Interscholastic League (UIL) announced July 21 that fall activities for the state's two largest classifications, 6A and 5A, will be pushed back five weeks, the start of practice from Aug. 3 to Sept. 7, and games to begin Sept. 24-26. The football playoffs in those classifications originally slated for Nov. 12, now begin on Dec. 3, and title games, originally scheduled Dec. 16-19 at AT&T Stadium, now will take place sometime in Jan. Class 4A, 3A, 2A and 1A will continue as scheduled with practices beginning on Aug. 3 and games kicking off Aug. 27-29. ... The Texas Association of Private and Parochial Schools (TAPPS) has pushed back the start of fall sports season for its member schools. Football practice may begin Sept. 8 with games getting underway Sept. 28.

Oklahoma The Oklahoma Secondary School Activities Association said on July 23 that it plans for all sports, including football, to start as planned in the fall but is prepared to adjust with updates of the coronavirus pandemic. OSSAA executive director David Jackson told members he would provide schools with health guidelines but local districts will decide how to deal with positive COVID test results and fan control.

Kansas The Kansas City school board voted Aug 11 to suspend all fall sports football, volleyball, cross country, boys soccer and spirit squad and won't participate in any Kansas State High School Athletic Association fall activities. This follows Gov. Laura Kelly's executive order on July 15 to delay the start of schools until after Labor Day, which forced the KSHSAA back to the drawing board on plans of when or if to start the fall sports season, which were scheduled to begin Sept 3 (football) and Aug. 21 (girls golf, tennis and cross country).

Iowa The Iowa High School Athletic Association baseball tournament ended Aug. 1 with 29,904 fans in attendance over four title games at Principal Park in Des Moines home of the Triple-A Iowa Cubs the highest turnout since 2014. ... On July 24, the IHSAA announced a flexible regular season schedule for football only. The start dates (practice Aug. 10, first game as early as Aug. 27) remain the same, but the association is allowing teams to play between five and seven regular-season contests during a seven-week season. Also, all teams in all classes will qualify for the postseason. Brackets will consist of six rounds for each classification.

West Virginia The 2020 football season will begin with practice on Sept. 3, according to West Virginia Secondary School Activities Commission executive director Bernie Dolan. He made the announcement on July 10 a day after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice announced the start of the 2020-21 school year was pushed back to Sept. 8.