Thanks to everyone for the responses so far. I find it intriguing, by the way, that those who were so quick to suggest COVID-19 deaths would match the cost of the 1918 Flu pandemic are not posting actual predictions here that this will happen. More of that internet courage we hear so much about.
Before I go on, I happen to be a senior with cancer and a medical history which includes bronchitis - I am therefore at high risk of dying from C-19 should I contract it. But I am concerned about the cost of actions taken to save my life. There is the reasonable precaution of self-quarantine if someone has contact with a C-19 patient, and especially if someone experiences the fever and cough of C-19's symptoms themselves. But the plain fact should be remembered that banning all gatherings of a hundred of more would be very damaging to a lot of businesses like restaurants and event services; the cancellation of the Houston Rodeo, for example, is estimated to have put thirty or more small businesses out of work. Personally, I am not willing to put people out work, who had no known contact with C-19 and showed no signs of it, just to
potentially improve my own protection by a small margin.
The attendant problems of hoarding and racism are also worrisome. People are making crazy decisions like piling up absurd amounts of toilet paper, water, and perishable food out of fear, and physical attacks on Asians, especially Chinese people, are in the news. These are also fruits of the hysteria driven by the media. It's one thing for a news group to post information on how to protect yourself from contagion, but the 24/7 coverage which provides no new information but instead drums endlessly about worst-case scenarios and what should be done about China (
and by inference, Chinese people) is - to my mind - criminal in its negligence.
I understand we live in a partisan age, when everything seems to be thrown into the 'us' or 'them' pile and emotions assigned to address each pile. But it should not be that hard for adults to do what we can to protect our families and be careful, without abandoning reason and the processes which have worked in every past outbreak.
Finally, I think the
true 'worst-case' scenario can be seen in China. Some here, ironically many of the same people who accuse China of lying about the virus in the first place, now say we have to do exactly what China claims it did. Now, my evidence is anecdotal, but I do have friends and contacts in China, who tell me A) yes, China did lie about when the outbreak started and how many people in China were exposed/infected, and B) no, China did not get a handle on the virus, pretty much ever, because they took more than a month after the initial outbreak to begin quarantining Wuhai city and Hubei province. Further, despite the assumptions many people make about China, Chinese people are
not mindless robots who obey the government, meaning the people there did all the things we are seeing here, including hoarding, looting (
although that has not happened here yet), and acting emotionally rather than following government orders. So the fact that the new cases of C-19 in China appear to have plateaued would mean that the virus is burning itself out, doubtless due in part to quarantine efforts but also in following the pattern of past virus outbreaks. Given our size, the tighter travel restrictions which went into effect more than a month ago, and the resources available from our laboratories and medical research firms, I believe it is likely we will see no more than 2,500 US dead in 2020 from COVID-19. Each and every one of those deaths would be a tragedy, but that's where the cap would be. I do agree that some restriction on international travel is necessary for now, and that private organizations should consider limiting or cancelling events through their own choice, but I also believe the media should stop selling fear and panic by its endless editorials which emotion but no effective facts. I also think people should be very careful before handing over freedoms to the government, no matter who is in charge. I do not much like the notion of a government saying our rights cannot be exercised because of crisis [x]. It's very easy for that power to be abused.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier