Call it: How many US deaths from COVID-19, and why?

24,656 Views | 278 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Robert Wilson
Oldbear83
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Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
contrario
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About 10,000. I think it will continue to spread, but I think due to public and private efforts, it will be limited. The virus appears to only be fatal in old people. We've had about 60 deaths so far. I could see it being less than 10,000, but I think 10,000 is reasonable based on the trend so far and the likelihood that the virus will peak in about 2 weeks in the US. I estimate the peak based on the progression in China and South Korea and I expect Italy, France and Spain to peak within a few days.

I'm not a medical professional, I'm just analyzing the data.
Bearitto
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Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
bularry
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What economy destroying measures?

Bearitto
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bularry said:

What economy destroying measures?




Are you serious?
LTbear
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Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.
Bearitto
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LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
LTbear
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
So you're also proudly a piece of ****. In that case, *****you, and thank god for the ignore function, so I won't have to read any more of your idiotic drivel.
Bearitto
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LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
So you're also proudly a piece of ***** **** you, and thank god for the ignore function, so I won't have to read any more of your idiotic drivel.


Stop acting like a spoiled child. Decisions have real world consequences and harm real people. Fewer people will be hurt for a shorter time if the virus just burns through. Economic damage will be less. Grow up.
nein51
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That's a really Malthusian approach. That is going to be super unpopular even if it is incredibly pragmatic.

I hope when I'm older to not be faced with a decision like that. I think each of us would like to live forever, especially as death come closer.
PartyBear
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nein51 said:

That's a really Malthusian approach. That is going to be super unpopular even if it is incredibly pragmatic.

I hope when I'm older to not be faced with a decision like that. I think each of us would like to live forever, especially as death come closer.


It isn't a pragmatic approach. A lot of deaths and a lot of illness are what will hurt the economy. Not to mention weaken the US. It is actually the opposite of self preservation.
contrario
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LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
So you're also proudly a piece of ****. In that case, *****you, and thank god for the ignore function, so I won't have to read any more of your idiotic drivel.
It seems like you are an emotional thinker. We can't always react out of emotion. At some point we have to be realistic about the situation. People will die from this no matter what we do. It's an unavoidable fact. And we absolutely should take reasonable measures to reduce that. But there does become a cost-benefit analysis, and I don't just mean financial cost. At some point, the "cost" of saving one extra life that would be killed by the virus will result in the loss of life from someone that wouldn't be impacted by the virus. This will come in the form of lost jobs, stress from an impending financial crisis, domestic violence at home because of additional stress, Increased divorce rates, hunger and homelessness. It's tragic these people may die from COVID-19, but the sad reality is people in these groups likely would have died from the annual flu or a number of other Illnesses. We need to take all reasonable precautions, but at some point shutting down the world economy, which could cost the lives of hundreds of thousands or millions, isn't worth the cost to save the lives of a few thousand. It's just a simple fact.
BaylorBJM
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?
blackie
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
So you're also proudly a piece of ***** **** you, and thank god for the ignore function, so I won't have to read any more of your idiotic drivel.


Stop acting like a spoiled child. Decisions have real world consequences and harm real people. Fewer people will be hurt for a shorter time if the virus just burns through. Economic damage will be less. Grow up.
The statistics about who are affected and die are generalizations. There are situations where an otherwise normally "safe" demographic still has something about their system that makes them highly vulnerable. Are you willing personally to have your life sacrificed as you seem to throw the elderly and immune compromised into the trash......because you have no control on how your body would react, so that we don't create further economic damage?

This country was built on helping each other when the need arises, damn the economy or anything else. I can now understand the gist of many of your posts. You don't give a **** about anyone but yourself and those like you. And we wonder why this country is being split apart and the speech coming from those on the extremes, both left and right, is a dagger into the heart of this country.
Bearitto
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BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Don't project. The virus was created in Wuhan either by disgusting Chinese cultural practices of eating road kill or by lazy hygiene at the Wuhan disease control center. It's a Chinese created virus. No I don't think they engineered it.
contrario
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PartyBear said:

nein51 said:

That's a really Malthusian approach. That is going to be super unpopular even if it is incredibly pragmatic.

I hope when I'm older to not be faced with a decision like that. I think each of us would like to live forever, especially as death come closer.


It isn't a pragmatic approach. A lot of deaths and a lot of illness are what will hurt the economy. Not to mention weaken the US. It is actually the opposite of self preservation.
It's likely more people will die from the flu this year. The numbers are looking that way. And people die at much higher numbers and rates due to many other factors. The economy still continues to grow. Death is a natural part of life. We weren't shoveling bodies out of the streets and even if we did nothing, it wouldn't have been that bad. All reasonable measures should be done to reduce loss of life, but we can't shut down the world economy every time this happens. The economic impact from this will be felt for some time. My biggest fear is that we will overreact to every virus now and we will have huge impacts to our economy every year because of irrational group think.
Bearitto
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blackie said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
So you're also proudly a piece of ***** **** you, and thank god for the ignore function, so I won't have to read any more of your idiotic drivel.


Stop acting like a spoiled child. Decisions have real world consequences and harm real people. Fewer people will be hurt for a shorter time if the virus just burns through. Economic damage will be less. Grow up.
The statistics about who are affected and die are generalizations. There are situations where an otherwise normally "safe" demographic still has something about their system that makes them highly vulnerable. Are you willing personally to have your life sacrificed as you seem to throw the elderly and immune compromised into the trash......because you have no control on how your body would react, so that we don't create further economic damage?

This country was built on helping each other when the need arises, damn the economy or anything else. I can now understand the gist of many of your posts. You don't give a **** about anyone but yourself and those like you. And we wonder why this country is being split apart and the speech coming from those on the extremes, both left and right, is a dagger into the heart of this country.


I'm not willing to sacrifice the lives and futures of 320m Americans with virtually no chance of long term issues or death on the fictional alter of everlasting life on earth for 81yr old pensioners with only a handful of months or years remaining regardless.

Attempting to prolong the lives of those with little time left anyway isn't worth destroying our economy. Of the two of us, I'm the one who actually cares about the most people. You worship old age at the cost of your children's future.
BaylorBJM
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Bearitto said:

BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Don't project. The virus was created in Wuhan either by disgusting Chinese cultural practices of eating road kill or by lazy hygiene at the Wuhan disease control center. It's a Chinese created virus. No I don't think they engineered it.
Understood. Not projecting, simply a genuine question given the way you phrased it. I don't really agree with anything else you typed but at the very least I'm glad you're not one of the conspiracy theorists.
Oldbear83
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Thanks to everyone for the responses so far. I find it intriguing, by the way, that those who were so quick to suggest COVID-19 deaths would match the cost of the 1918 Flu pandemic are not posting actual predictions here that this will happen. More of that internet courage we hear so much about.

Before I go on, I happen to be a senior with cancer and a medical history which includes bronchitis - I am therefore at high risk of dying from C-19 should I contract it. But I am concerned about the cost of actions taken to save my life. There is the reasonable precaution of self-quarantine if someone has contact with a C-19 patient, and especially if someone experiences the fever and cough of C-19's symptoms themselves. But the plain fact should be remembered that banning all gatherings of a hundred of more would be very damaging to a lot of businesses like restaurants and event services; the cancellation of the Houston Rodeo, for example, is estimated to have put thirty or more small businesses out of work. Personally, I am not willing to put people out work, who had no known contact with C-19 and showed no signs of it, just to potentially improve my own protection by a small margin.

The attendant problems of hoarding and racism are also worrisome. People are making crazy decisions like piling up absurd amounts of toilet paper, water, and perishable food out of fear, and physical attacks on Asians, especially Chinese people, are in the news. These are also fruits of the hysteria driven by the media. It's one thing for a news group to post information on how to protect yourself from contagion, but the 24/7 coverage which provides no new information but instead drums endlessly about worst-case scenarios and what should be done about China (and by inference, Chinese people) is - to my mind - criminal in its negligence.

I understand we live in a partisan age, when everything seems to be thrown into the 'us' or 'them' pile and emotions assigned to address each pile. But it should not be that hard for adults to do what we can to protect our families and be careful, without abandoning reason and the processes which have worked in every past outbreak.

Finally, I think the true 'worst-case' scenario can be seen in China. Some here, ironically many of the same people who accuse China of lying about the virus in the first place, now say we have to do exactly what China claims it did. Now, my evidence is anecdotal, but I do have friends and contacts in China, who tell me A) yes, China did lie about when the outbreak started and how many people in China were exposed/infected, and B) no, China did not get a handle on the virus, pretty much ever, because they took more than a month after the initial outbreak to begin quarantining Wuhai city and Hubei province. Further, despite the assumptions many people make about China, Chinese people are not mindless robots who obey the government, meaning the people there did all the things we are seeing here, including hoarding, looting (although that has not happened here yet), and acting emotionally rather than following government orders. So the fact that the new cases of C-19 in China appear to have plateaued would mean that the virus is burning itself out, doubtless due in part to quarantine efforts but also in following the pattern of past virus outbreaks. Given our size, the tighter travel restrictions which went into effect more than a month ago, and the resources available from our laboratories and medical research firms, I believe it is likely we will see no more than 2,500 US dead in 2020 from COVID-19. Each and every one of those deaths would be a tragedy, but that's where the cap would be. I do agree that some restriction on international travel is necessary for now, and that private organizations should consider limiting or cancelling events through their own choice, but I also believe the media should stop selling fear and panic by its endless editorials which emotion but no effective facts. I also think people should be very careful before handing over freedoms to the government, no matter who is in charge. I do not much like the notion of a government saying our rights cannot be exercised because of crisis [x]. It's very easy for that power to be abused.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
PartyBear
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contrario said:

PartyBear said:

nein51 said:

That's a really Malthusian approach. That is going to be super unpopular even if it is incredibly pragmatic.

I hope when I'm older to not be faced with a decision like that. I think each of us would like to live forever, especially as death come closer.


It isn't a pragmatic approach. A lot of deaths and a lot of illness are what will hurt the economy. Not to mention weaken the US. It is actually the opposite of self preservation.
It's likely more people will die from the flu this year. The numbers are looking that way. And people die at much higher numbers and rates due to many other factors. The economy still continues to grow. Death is a natural part of life. We weren't shoveling bodies out of the streets and even if we did nothing, it wouldn't have been that bad. All reasonable measures should be done to reduce loss of life, but we can't shut down the world economy every time this happens. The economic impact from this will be felt for some time. My biggest fear is that we will overreact to every virus now and we will have huge impacts to our economy every year because of irrational group think.


So which is it. The economy is growing or it is shut down? You said both are happening. Incidentally the economy shutting down is the decision of business and investors themselves. No one else is doing it. Complain to them.
Oldbear83
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Bearitto said:

BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Don't project. The virus was created in Wuhan either by disgusting Chinese cultural practices of eating road kill or by lazy hygiene at the Wuhan disease control center. It's a Chinese created virus. No I don't think they engineered it.
I can speak to that, somewhat. I have in-laws in Hong Kong, have worked in China myself, and have many friends who live in China.

I take some offense at claiming 'eating road kill' is a "cultural practice". That wrongly describes what happened, and why.

China's central government, as you may know, made some horrifically bad decisions in the 1960's, which led to death of most cattle and birds for the better part of a quarter-century. Out of desperation, rural Chinese were forced to hunt and eat whatever animals they could find in the wild, including snakes, bats, dogs, and wild rabbits. I should mention that the desperation never brought Chinese to eat mice or rats, which were always considered too dirty to eat, even when starving.

Years later, as times got better, some Chinese would eat some wild animal dish as a memory of those hard times. And some Chinese wanted to try out new cuisine which included eating animals live. Before you label that practice as a disgusting Asian practice, I should mention I have seen the same practice - eating animals live - in parts of Europe and South America. It's a disgusting practice, but not defined by China.

The word 'coronavirus' refers to a type of virus, notable for the shape of its form but also because coronaviruses can be transmitted between Mammals and Avians. We've known about them since the 1960's, by the way. So the risk of a new virus showing up in some human who ate a live animal was always a high-probability; it was simply a matter of who or when.

The overwhelming number of cases in Wuhan were traced directly to that wet market, so I reject the 'lab created' claim, especially considering that no one in Wuhan told Beijing about the outbreak for weeks, which indicates both natural confusion when the virus first appeared, and human-nature evasion when Wuhan officials realized the virus was indeed something new, and that they had failed to take appropriate steps. Never assume conspiracy when plain stupidity explains what happened.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
contrario
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PartyBear said:

contrario said:

PartyBear said:

nein51 said:

That's a really Malthusian approach. That is going to be super unpopular even if it is incredibly pragmatic.

I hope when I'm older to not be faced with a decision like that. I think each of us would like to live forever, especially as death come closer.


It isn't a pragmatic approach. A lot of deaths and a lot of illness are what will hurt the economy. Not to mention weaken the US. It is actually the opposite of self preservation.
It's likely more people will die from the flu this year. The numbers are looking that way. And people die at much higher numbers and rates due to many other factors. The economy still continues to grow. Death is a natural part of life. We weren't shoveling bodies out of the streets and even if we did nothing, it wouldn't have been that bad. All reasonable measures should be done to reduce loss of life, but we can't shut down the world economy every time this happens. The economic impact from this will be felt for some time. My biggest fear is that we will overreact to every virus now and we will have huge impacts to our economy every year because of irrational group think.


So which is it. The economy is growing or it is shut down? You said both are happening. Incidentally the economy shutting down is the decision of business and investors themselves. No one else is doing it. Complain to them.
My point was we have a lot of illness and death every year and the economy isn't hurt. I was responding to your point that death and illness are what will hurt the economy, as if the measures we are currently taking won't hurt the economy.

Yes, the economy is shut down this time around because we decided that the death of a few thousand people in the US is more important than the loss of many more each year due to other causes that could be prevented by similar measures.
PartyBear
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Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die rather than hurt the economy is very much sounding like yall's made up death panels of 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
blackie
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I think the concern for a lot of people is that we don't have anything to fight this at this point other than trying to keep people apart. At least for flu, we have treatments. While the story right now is it dangerously affects the elderly and people (of any age) that have underlying medical conditions, there is a not-zero probability that if steps are not done to at least try to limit its spread, it could mutate into something that seriously affects even the young and middle-aged people. We just don't know. All segments of opinion are just that, opinion. Once this is past, we can determine whose opinion was correct and whether actions taken or not taken were of value or unnecessary..
nein51
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PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation .

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.

He also just stated schools may not reopen this year.
PartyBear
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nein51 said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation .

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.

He also just stated schools may not reopen this year.


Surely there is some way for school districts to go online.
contrario
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PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die is very much sounding like the death panels many of y'all made up 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
They are being overrun because people are panicking and going to the hospital when they probably shouldn't be. We've had a little over 3,000 confirmed cases in the US so far. We can all agree that these numbers are probably low because of testing and because some people have very mild or no symptoms at all. So are you telling me our hospital system can't handle 3,000 sick people? Because that's where we are today. And based on the trends experienced in other countries that have reached their peak, we should be reaching the peak in the US in the next week or so. And the truth is, not everyone that gets the virus needs a hospital bed. Most of the people that get the virus just need to be treated and isolated, which can be done at home. Just like when we get any other virus, we have to let it run its course, and the rates have indicated that as long as you are under 60 and otherwise healthy, you likely don't need a hospital bed. I think this panic that we are going to run out of hospital beds in the next week is highly overblown and meant to strike fear in people that can't do basic math.
nein51
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PartyBear said:

nein51 said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation .

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.

He also just stated schools may not reopen this year.


Surely there is some way for school districts to go online.

Ok cool, who is going to stay home to watch those kids. In my house it's not a huge deal as my wife and I can both work from home but that's not a reality for most people.
PartyBear
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If the school is closed, which I thought you said he may do, you still have that issue. I'm talking about surely they can do this without every Ohio kid having to repeat their current grade, next year.
Bearitto
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PartyBear said:

nein51 said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation .

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.

He also just stated schools may not reopen this year.


Surely there is some way for school districts to go online.


That is utter foolishness. We know who is at risk and it isn't kids. Let them learn.
PartyBear
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FYI I'm not Governor DeWine. I'm not thinking about closing Ohio's schools.

However if DeWine does this hopefully he doesn't do it in a way that screws up every Ohio kid's academic track.
nein51
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PartyBear said:

FYI I'm not Governor DeWine. I'm not thinking about closing Ohio's schools.

However if DeWine does this hopefully he doesn't do it in a way that screws up every Ohio kid's academic track.

Gotcha. Makes more sense. I wouldn't think that would happen as my kid's school already has lessons and assignments planned for the 3 week spring break. He also does a lot of learning via google cloud but we also happen to be in one of the top rated school districts in Ohio, I have no idea if that's a reality for kids in other districts.
PartyBear
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contrario said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die is very much sounding like the death panels many of y'all made up 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
They are being overrun because people are panicking and going to the hospital when they probably shouldn't be. We've had a little over 3,000 confirmed cases in the US so far. We can all agree that these numbers are probably low because of testing and because some people have very mild or no symptoms at all. So are you telling me our hospital system can't handle 3,000 sick people? Because that's where we are today. And based on the trends experienced in other countries that have reached their peak, we should be reaching the peak in the US in the next week or so. And the truth is, not everyone that gets the virus needs a hospital bed. Most of the people that get the virus just need to be treated and isolated, which can be done at home. Just like when we get any other virus, we have to let it run its course, and the rates have indicated that as long as you are under 60 and otherwise healthy, you likely don't need a hospital bed. I think this panic that we are going to run out of hospital beds in the next week is highly overblown and meant to strike fear in people that can't do basic math.


So essentially you think today's number of 3000 is where it stops. It was 2000 24 hours ago but today is the peak? It stopped this am? That seems to be the premise of that long post about how this isn't going to stress anything and we have room for 3000 people in our hospitals.
blackie
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Bearitto said:

PartyBear said:

nein51 said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation .

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.

He also just stated schools may not reopen this year.


Surely there is some way for school districts to go online.


That is utter foolishness. We know who is at risk and it isn't kids. Let them learn.
How many of those kids are under the sole care of grandparents or parents with existing medical conditions that place them at high risk, or live in households with other people at higher risk? The kids get infected and bring it home and those at home are now directly exposed, people who are directly responsible for the children's care.

You are either going to try to stop the spread or mutation of this virus or you are not since we don't have medications at this point to treat it. Just because the environment you are allowing to continue as normal primarily only contains ones considered as low risk for serious complications, doesn't mean you are not exposing the entire population to the threat, which can then lead to severe stress in the healthcare sector to the point that normal emergencies for any age cannot be treated in a timely manner.

You can consider the older generation as not worth saving, but allowing the medical community to be completely overwhelmed in the areas of critical care is the most serious side effect in limiting efforts to control the spread of the virus.

PartyBear
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The Governor of Rhode Island said on Friday that schools will be the last thing she closes. Because then the kids will all be in the care of a vulnerable grand parent etc because parents still have to work. Additionally many younger kids get a good bit of their nutrition through school meals.
 
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