Call it: How many US deaths from COVID-19, and why?

24,864 Views | 278 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Robert Wilson
Bearitto
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blackie said:

Bearitto said:

PartyBear said:

nein51 said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation .

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.

He also just stated schools may not reopen this year.


Surely there is some way for school districts to go online.


That is utter foolishness. We know who is at risk and it isn't kids. Let them learn.
How many of those kids are under the sole care of grandparents or parents with existing medical conditions that place them at high risk, or live in households with other people at higher risk? The kids get infected and bring it home and those at home are now directly exposed, people who are directly responsible for the children's care.

You are either going to try to stop the spread or mutation of this virus or you are not since we don't have medications at this point to treat it. Just because the environment you are allowing to continue as normal primarily only contains ones considered as low risk for serious complications, doesn't mean you are not exposing the entire population to the threat, which can then lead to severe stress in the healthcare sector to the point that normal emergencies for any age cannot be treated in a timely manner.

You can consider the older generation as not worth saving, but allowing the medical community to be completely overwhelmed in the areas of critical care is the most serious side effect in limiting efforts to control the spread of the virus.




1. No one is going 'save' the older generation. You will die. We all will die. We all have an expiration date.

2. Destroying the economy for a delusion of immortality isn't going to 'save' anyone.

3. The vast majority of the older generation will be just fine. 50.5% of them likely won't even get symptoms.

4. Demanding kids stop learning and their parents stop working so they can feed them is incredibly selfish.
PartyBear
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Do you think it is treating people that is collapsing the economy or the effect of the rapid spread on Americans that is collapsing the economy? You seem to think treating the victims is the culprit.

I'm absolutely sure a policy of if you get it we let you die, approach will hurt the economy even more. That might even make the kids freak out and not go to restaurants anymore.
Bearitto
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PartyBear said:

Do you think it is treating people that is collapsing the economy or the effect of the rapid spread on Americans that is collapsing the economy? You seem to think treating the victims is the culprit.

I'm absolutely sure a policy of if you get it we let you die, approach will hurt the economy even more. That might even make the kids freak out and not go to restaurants anymore.


You do love straw men, don't you. Telling the world to shut down is not "treating victims". It's creating victims. It's selfish in the extreme. I'd expect nothing less from the generation that gifted us with most of our debt. Always eager to let the next generation pay the tab.

How old are you?
PartyBear
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The world is shutting down without anyone telling it to. You seem to think someone told it to. Do you think Disney would shut it's parks down just because someone told them to? They shut down on their own because their management and board also rightfully freaked out and thought that was a longer term better business decision. Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" which many of y'all claim to cherish is doing all of this. Perhaps you don't always like what the "invisible hand" does. But that is capitalism.
Bearitto
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PartyBear said:

The world is shutting down without anyone telling it to. You seem to think someone told it to. Do you think Disney would shut it's parks down just because someone told them to? They shut down on their own because their management and board also rightfully freaked out and thought that was a longer term better business decision.


Do you think laws are the only pressures that force bad decisions and harm innocent people?

I'm betting you are old enough to know better. Over 65 perhaps.
PartyBear
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No I think the free market does as well. Hence why businesses are shutting down for a while to minimize losses however I'm not saying they are making bad decisions. They know their customers etc.
Oldbear83
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PartyBear said:

No I think the free market does as well. Hence why businesses are shutting down for a while to minimize losses however I'm not saying they are making bad decisions. They know their customers etc.
I don't think your statement is completely accurate. Businesses are certainly making decisions to protect their employees, but there are certainly government pressures and questions of liability. If an employee gets sick of C-19 at work, how long before he/she sues the employer for having him come to work?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
nein51
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Oldbear83 said:

PartyBear said:

No I think the free market does as well. Hence why businesses are shutting down for a while to minimize losses however I'm not saying they are making bad decisions. They know their customers etc.
I don't think your statement is completely accurate. Businesses are certainly making decisions to protect their employees, but there are certainly government pressures and questions of liability. If an employee gets sick of C-19 at work, how long before he/she sues the employer for having him come to work?

This is a discussion we are having at my work too. They have basically said business as usual but what happens when someone gets sick and sues then for not taking precautions.
Oldbear83
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nein51 said:

Oldbear83 said:

PartyBear said:

No I think the free market does as well. Hence why businesses are shutting down for a while to minimize losses however I'm not saying they are making bad decisions. They know their customers etc.
I don't think your statement is completely accurate. Businesses are certainly making decisions to protect their employees, but there are certainly government pressures and questions of liability. If an employee gets sick of C-19 at work, how long before he/she sues the employer for having him come to work?

This is a discussion we are having at my work too. They have basically said business as usual but what happens when someone gets sick and sues then for not taking precautions.
At our place, we are rotating managers and staff between working at the office and working at home, and anyone exposed works from home for 2 weeks with screening procedures.

The problem is what to do with people who have to be at the location, from receptionists to machinists. Still working out options on that point.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
nein51
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Same for us. We have a lot of field people. They really don't provide much value if they aren't in the field. Callous as that sounds it's factually accurate.
Baylor3216
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Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?




Under Obama / Biden, 1,000 people died of Swine Flu in 2010 before he uttered a word bout it and took a single action. 60 million Americans were infected and 17,000 including little children died per the CDC

500,000 world wide died from it according to WHO
contrario
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PartyBear said:

contrario said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die is very much sounding like the death panels many of y'all made up 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
They are being overrun because people are panicking and going to the hospital when they probably shouldn't be. We've had a little over 3,000 confirmed cases in the US so far. We can all agree that these numbers are probably low because of testing and because some people have very mild or no symptoms at all. So are you telling me our hospital system can't handle 3,000 sick people? Because that's where we are today. And based on the trends experienced in other countries that have reached their peak, we should be reaching the peak in the US in the next week or so. And the truth is, not everyone that gets the virus needs a hospital bed. Most of the people that get the virus just need to be treated and isolated, which can be done at home. Just like when we get any other virus, we have to let it run its course, and the rates have indicated that as long as you are under 60 and otherwise healthy, you likely don't need a hospital bed. I think this panic that we are going to run out of hospital beds in the next week is highly overblown and meant to strike fear in people that can't do basic math.


So essentially you think today's number of 3000 is where it stops. It was 2000 24 hours ago but today is the peak? It stopped this am? That seems to be the premise of that long post about how this isn't going to stress anything and we have room for 3000 people in our hospitals.
Try critical thinking. Of the 3,000 people that have been confirmed, not all of them need to be confined to a hospital bed. Yes, some do, but not all of them. Most of them can be treated at home and quarantined just as we do with the flu. And some of the people that may have needed hospital beds a few days ago, don't need them now. This is a fluid situation and we are going to peak soon based on the historical progression in other countries.
Baylor3216
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Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.


Wow
Porteroso
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Bearitto said:


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Just say what you mean, too many words.

Money is more important to you than life. Congrats, you're like 95% of the planet, selfish and ignorant.
Booray
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.


Do you consider yourself Pro-life?
Booray
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Oldbear83 said:

PartyBear said:

No I think the free market does as well. Hence why businesses are shutting down for a while to minimize losses however I'm not saying they are making bad decisions. They know their customers etc.
I don't think your statement is completely accurate. Businesses are certainly making decisions to protect their employees, but there are certainly government pressures and questions of liability. If an employee gets sick of C-19 at work, how long before he/she sues the employer for having him come to work?


If it is an at-will employee, no one is making the employee go to work. Employers with worker's compensation insurance are pretty well protected even if it is an unsafe work environment.

Canada2017
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.


Bull****

BaylorBJM
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Baylor3216 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?




Under Obama / Biden, 1,000 people died of Swine Flu in 2010 before he uttered a word bout it and took a single action.


If by 1000 you meant zero, sure.

But keep quoting that Fw:Fw:FW:Fw email you received from your grandparents.

https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8603491796
ATL Bear
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90% of influenza deaths are those 65 and older. I believe we could have taken extreme measures for the most vulnerable without the absolute blanket we've thrown over this problem. Of course saying anyone 65 and older is required to be home quarantined along with the restrictions they've put on nursing homes, as well as notifying those who have compromised immune systems are to home quarantine might not go over well. Could you imagine the gasp if businesses and agencies refused entry or officials sent home people out in public of a certain age?

We also need better standards of patient evaluation because even as the number of cases increase, the 98/99% ratio of negative test results remain. I don't know any other statistic that can tell you we're allocating resources inefficiently. For perspective flu and strep tests have about a 50% negative result. I'm sure this is part learning curve but also a good dose of panic. The threat to system overload will be as much from those not infected as those that are.
Oldbear83
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BaylorBJM said:

Baylor3216 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?




Under Obama / Biden, 1,000 people died of Swine Flu in 2010 before he uttered a word bout it and took a single action.


If by 1000 you meant zero, sure.

But keep quoting that Fw:Fw:FW:Fw email you received from your grandparents.

https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8603491796
Your link notes that 1,000 Americans had died by the time President Obama declared a national emergency, which does create a comparable metric to President Trump for those so inclined.

In reality, every President works with health professionals and the available information to make the best decision he can. It's an unfortunate habit that some people cannot look for ways to work together to prevail in the crisis, but instead look for political points.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
BaylorBJM
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I know what is it says, I read the link when I posted. It still directly conflicts what 3216 posted.
PartyBear
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contrario said:

PartyBear said:

contrario said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die is very much sounding like the death panels many of y'all made up 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
They are being overrun because people are panicking and going to the hospital when they probably shouldn't be. We've had a little over 3,000 confirmed cases in the US so far. We can all agree that these numbers are probably low because of testing and because some people have very mild or no symptoms at all. So are you telling me our hospital system can't handle 3,000 sick people? Because that's where we are today. And based on the trends experienced in other countries that have reached their peak, we should be reaching the peak in the US in the next week or so. And the truth is, not everyone that gets the virus needs a hospital bed. Most of the people that get the virus just need to be treated and isolated, which can be done at home. Just like when we get any other virus, we have to let it run its course, and the rates have indicated that as long as you are under 60 and otherwise healthy, you likely don't need a hospital bed. I think this panic that we are going to run out of hospital beds in the next week is highly overblown and meant to strike fear in people that can't do basic math.


So essentially you think today's number of 3000 is where it stops. It was 2000 24 hours ago but today is the peak? It stopped this am? That seems to be the premise of that long post about how this isn't going to stress anything and we have room for 3000 people in our hospitals.
Try critical thinking. Of the 3,000 people that have been confirmed, not all of them need to be confined to a hospital bed. Yes, some do, but not all of them. Most of them can be treated at home and quarantined just as we do with the flu. And some of the people that may have needed hospital beds a few days ago, don't need them now. This is a fluid situation and we are going to peak soon based on the historical progression in other countries.


Critical thinking seriously. You stated earlier essentially that no this virus will not stress our systems. Even though it is substantially already stressing the economy. Your reasoning was that hospitals can handle 3000 cases. Which was our number this morning as if it either stopped spreading this am or it's peak isn't much more than today's number and is also only a couple days or so away. I doubt seriously you are right that we are at about peak here.
Oldbear83
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BaylorBJM said:

I know what is it says, I read the link when I posted. It still directly conflicts what 3216 posted.
The point is, are you trying to solve problems or score political points?

I directed that at everyone talking politics during a medical crisis.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
contrario
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PartyBear said:

contrario said:

PartyBear said:

contrario said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die is very much sounding like the death panels many of y'all made up 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
They are being overrun because people are panicking and going to the hospital when they probably shouldn't be. We've had a little over 3,000 confirmed cases in the US so far. We can all agree that these numbers are probably low because of testing and because some people have very mild or no symptoms at all. So are you telling me our hospital system can't handle 3,000 sick people? Because that's where we are today. And based on the trends experienced in other countries that have reached their peak, we should be reaching the peak in the US in the next week or so. And the truth is, not everyone that gets the virus needs a hospital bed. Most of the people that get the virus just need to be treated and isolated, which can be done at home. Just like when we get any other virus, we have to let it run its course, and the rates have indicated that as long as you are under 60 and otherwise healthy, you likely don't need a hospital bed. I think this panic that we are going to run out of hospital beds in the next week is highly overblown and meant to strike fear in people that can't do basic math.


So essentially you think today's number of 3000 is where it stops. It was 2000 24 hours ago but today is the peak? It stopped this am? That seems to be the premise of that long post about how this isn't going to stress anything and we have room for 3000 people in our hospitals.
Try critical thinking. Of the 3,000 people that have been confirmed, not all of them need to be confined to a hospital bed. Yes, some do, but not all of them. Most of them can be treated at home and quarantined just as we do with the flu. And some of the people that may have needed hospital beds a few days ago, don't need them now. This is a fluid situation and we are going to peak soon based on the historical progression in other countries.


Critical thinking seriously. You stated earlier essentially that no this virus will not stress our systems. Even though it is substantially already stressing the economy. Your reasoning was that hospitals can handle 3000 cases. Which was our number this morning as if it either stopped spreading this am or it's peak isn't much more than today's number and is also only a couple days or so away. I doubt seriously you are right that we are at about peak here.
It peaked within 14-20 days in China and South Korea and they didn't take nearly the steps we did. It will peak in two weeks here as well, if not sooner. The numbers don't lie.
BaylorBJM
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Oldbear83 said:

BaylorBJM said:

I know what is it says, I read the link when I posted. It still directly conflicts what 3216 posted.
The point is, are you trying to solve problems or score political points?

I directed that at everyone talking politics during a medical crisis.
I've been pretty careful to not bring politics into the Covid discussion, I simply responded to a completely wrong take with a factual citation.

Seems like this response would have been best suited for the poster her brought politics into the discussion, no?
LTbear
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contrario said:

PartyBear said:

contrario said:

PartyBear said:

contrario said:

PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die is very much sounding like the death panels many of y'all made up 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
They are being overrun because people are panicking and going to the hospital when they probably shouldn't be. We've had a little over 3,000 confirmed cases in the US so far. We can all agree that these numbers are probably low because of testing and because some people have very mild or no symptoms at all. So are you telling me our hospital system can't handle 3,000 sick people? Because that's where we are today. And based on the trends experienced in other countries that have reached their peak, we should be reaching the peak in the US in the next week or so. And the truth is, not everyone that gets the virus needs a hospital bed. Most of the people that get the virus just need to be treated and isolated, which can be done at home. Just like when we get any other virus, we have to let it run its course, and the rates have indicated that as long as you are under 60 and otherwise healthy, you likely don't need a hospital bed. I think this panic that we are going to run out of hospital beds in the next week is highly overblown and meant to strike fear in people that can't do basic math.


So essentially you think today's number of 3000 is where it stops. It was 2000 24 hours ago but today is the peak? It stopped this am? That seems to be the premise of that long post about how this isn't going to stress anything and we have room for 3000 people in our hospitals.
Try critical thinking. Of the 3,000 people that have been confirmed, not all of them need to be confined to a hospital bed. Yes, some do, but not all of them. Most of them can be treated at home and quarantined just as we do with the flu. And some of the people that may have needed hospital beds a few days ago, don't need them now. This is a fluid situation and we are going to peak soon based on the historical progression in other countries.


Critical thinking seriously. You stated earlier essentially that no this virus will not stress our systems. Even though it is substantially already stressing the economy. Your reasoning was that hospitals can handle 3000 cases. Which was our number this morning as if it either stopped spreading this am or it's peak isn't much more than today's number and is also only a couple days or so away. I doubt seriously you are right that we are at about peak here.
It peaked within 14-20 days in China and South Korea and they didn't take nearly the steps we did. It will peak in two weeks here as well, if not sooner. The numbers don't lie.
Certainly hope that's the case. We'll see.
Aliceinbubbleland
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Bearitto said:



Do you think laws are the only pressures that force bad decisions and harm innocent people?

I'm betting you are old enough to know better. Over 65 perhaps.
Do you have living grandparents? Do you hate them? I ask this in all seriousness as my own grandchildren and my grandkids in laws believe entitlements for us old farts are the root of all evil.
PartyBear
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According to Xinuanet, which I suppose is a Chinese media outlet which would make things look better than it is, the outbreak there started in December and peaked in mid Feb. The peak ended on March 13th. Just this past Friday. Seems like the process is longer than 3 weeks. Has Italy peaked?
quash
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
So you're also proudly a piece of ***** **** you, and thank god for the ignore function, so I won't have to read any more of your idiotic drivel.


Stop acting like a spoiled child. Decisions have real world consequences and harm real people. Fewer people will be hurt for a shorter time if the virus just burns through. Economic damage will be less. Grow up.
"Chinese created Wuhan flu."

Is that another way to say Covid-19 was engineered in China? A way to accuse the Chinese?
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
quash
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PartyBear said:

According to Xinuanet, which I suppose is a Chinese media outlet which would make things look better than it is, the outbreak there started in December and peaked in mid Feb. The peak ended on March 13th. Just this past Friday. Seems like the process is longer than 3 weeks. Has Italy peaked?
S. Korea has.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
Buddha Bear
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
I thought death panels were from socialist policies. Strange times we are living in.
Oldbear83
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PartyBear said:

According to Xinuanet, which I suppose is a Chinese media outlet which would make things look better than it is, the outbreak there started in December and peaked in mid Feb. The peak ended on March 13th. Just this past Friday. Seems like the process is longer than 3 weeks. Has Italy peaked?
What I hear is that the first case in Wuhan was likely in November. If true, that puts a different perspective on a number of different reports. Certainly the available data suggests that the time of potential exposure, incubation, symptom appearance and resolution will total somewhere between 4 weeks to 6 weeks per case, and since the contagion occurs sequentially, we will be seeing new cases in the US through May at least, even if summer heat kills off most potential breeding grounds.

That's the real purpose behind the travel restrictions. There is no chance that the virus will not spread worldwide; what is being tried is to slow down the rate of new cases, in order to spread out the number of cases over time in order to have enough resources wherever needed. That objective appears to be working so far, but concern over the potential remains the source of much debate.

In any case, China may be telling the truth on some points, but any claim made by someone in Beijing should be checked and double-checked.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
PartyBear
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PartyBear
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I have no idea what happened just now with the thumbs down thing. But Im guessing with China as the model as someone else used but with an erroneous cycle time , we peak here about mid May and remain around there for a month.
Florda_mike
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Is it 61 now and 40 in Washington state? That's what I last read and most in Washington state are in a nursing home that had a previous $145,000,000 penalty for fraud!!!

Seems majorly cases are in democrat states which seems suspicious. Fake News all?

Oh well as regular flu deaths rapidly increase over 20,000 I'm guessing 450 coronavirus deaths thanks to swift actions of President Trump!!!

Sic em Trump
 
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