The Importance of Avoiding Groupthink in Evaluations and Predictions

Early on in the rankings, we get quite a few different slots. For basketball, some folks might have UNC No. 1 while others might think the Tar Heels are a bit overrated from an early tournament run. 

Eventually, though the rankings tend to herd. People worry that having rankings outside the consensus will make them look stupid, so they fall victim to groupthink. 

Groupthink is stupid for a host of reasons. One primary reason is that it eliminates the wisdom we garner from the crowd.