Preview: Baylor Soccer Head to Lubbock with Loads on the Line

WACO, Texas — Baylor Soccer (4-8-2, 2-4-0) is headed out to Lubbock for a Thursday night matchup with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-3-5, 4-1-2) who sit at 3rd in the Big 12. 

With just three games to go in the regular season for the Bears, a lot is at stake out in the panhandle. They sit in 8th in the conference standings and will almost certainly need another result or two to qualify for the Big 12 tournament. 

Last week, the green and gold took a big step toward qualification with a 3-2 win at Iowa State, but a disappointing 3-1 loss to West Virginia on Sunday leaves the Bears in a precarious position. 

“We got a win on the road. We were in a good position at West Virginia at halftime as well. I think maybe the long trip caught up with us,” said Baylor head coach Michelle Lenard. 

“Knowing that we have three more games in the season, and we're still in a position to fight for a place to go to the tournament, I think just keeping that in our mind instead of like negative thoughts about the game will help us to perform,” added junior winger Jenna Patterson. 

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Patterson chases down a through ball on the left wing against KSU

Overcoming Defensive Issues

Those negative thoughts are surely fewer and further between now that Baylor has won two of its last four games. However, there are still some defensive issues that need correcting if they want to earn those last results toward tournament qualification.

Step number one: “We need to stop conceding so many soft goals,” said coach Lenard.

Four of the five goals the green and gold surrendered in the last five games came from set-piece opportunities (free kicks and corners). Looking deeper, three of those four set-piece goals were scored on corner kicks that were lofted toward the far post. 

Opponents have clearly seen that the Bears’ defense and goalkeeper have struggled with this specific type of corner and used it against them to deadly effect.

“We've changed the way that we're set up for it going into this weekend. We've had to,” said coach Lenard, “We've had a combination of poorly executed defensive set plays and then some terrible bad luck.”

The bad luck is undeniable despite the smart play by the opponents. Against Iowa State on one of these corners, a Cyclone somehow snuck a shot between a Bear and the post. That defender was practically holding on to the post. 

Then against West Virginia, the Bears conceded an “olimpico” or a corner kick that goes directly into the goal without a touch from anyone else. That is rare. The placement, power and trajectory have to be so precise that a little luck is almost necessary. 

But Baylor is not using luck as an excuse. The players mentioned how they have been working in practice to improve against set pieces on top of the tactical change noted above by coach Lenard. Those things are necessary, especially now that the offense has started pulling its weight and putting balls in the back of the net.

“We can't be expected to score three goals a game to win,” said Lenard, “It's gonna come down to can we stop bleeding goals. If we can do that, then we're gonna find ways to win.”

The Bears are scoring enough to win though, at least in the last four games. They have eight goals over that span, half of which came from freshman forward Reneta Vargas.

“I think we're on an upward trend right now showing that things are starting to connect or starting to come together,” noted Lenard. “And that's still with Reneta at maybe like 70, 75% fitness and very limited game experience at this level.”

Freshman defender Hallie Augustyn added, “It gives us a lot of confidence through these next games because just knowing that we can put the ball in the back of the net is very comforting.”

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Mackenzie Anthony (left), Olivia Mack (center) and Kayley Ables (right) prepare for Baylor corner last year vs Tech

Previewing Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are 3rd in the Big 12 with a 4-1-2 conference record. Their only loss was 2-0 to Texas back in September, and they are currently riding a four-game winning streak. Through those four games, Tech has allowed just two goals and picked up 12 points toward conference tournament qualification. 

Because of the recent success, all against teams in the bottom half of the standings, the Red Raiders have an outside shot at winning the regular season Big 12 title. So this is an important game for both teams, with regard to placement in the standings.

As far as style of play goes, coach Lenard probably summarized Texas Tech the best:

“Tech's a little bit of a mixed bag depending upon who they're playing against. You see a little bit of a combination of trying to keep the ball and build out of the back and then suddenly we'll revert to a more direct style of play.”

For the Bears, that means they will most likely see a more direct attack from the Raiders, given Baylor’s struggles with that style this year.

The stats back up Texas Tech’s aptitude for this more defensive style as well. The Red Raiders average around just 11 shots per game and allow only eight defensively. Both they and their opponents average around four shots on goal. For reference, the best attacks in the Big 12 will average in the upper teens for shots and get about 40-45% of those on goal.

In the attack for Texas Tech, players to watch are Ashleigh Williams (#37) and Macy Shultz (#3). Williams is among the conference leaders in goals scored with nine while Schultz has bagged four goals of her own and an assist.

So will the Bears be able to lock in, clean things up defensively, and continue scoring enough to earn a result in Lubbock? Can the focus on this specific opponent with the possibility of postseason play looming on the horizon?

Big 12 Tournament Possibilities

Beyond the Tech game, the Bears are locked in a heated battle for the final spots in the conference tournament in Round Rock. I mentioned it before multiple times, but it’s worth digger a little deeper into.

Baylor could still finish anywhere from 2nd place to last technically, but something in the 7th-9th range is most likely. 

Iowa State is in last and could only pass Baylor if they beat both Texas and Kansas. 

Kansas is also behind the Bears with just four points to Baylor’s six, but with matchups at KSU and vs ISU everything is at their feet.

Kansas State’s other game left is at WVU, and they have a one-point lead on Baylor plus the head-to-head win. 

Otherwise, Oklahoma has almost as tough a three-game stretch to end things as Baylor, and they have the same lead over the Bears as KSU.

Big 12 Conference

Standings as of 10/19/22

“They know,” said coach Lenard of her players. “I think it's important to know what's on the line, but at the same time it doesn't change anything, and it shouldn't.”

It might not change how they approach any individual game from a coaching perspective. They are always looking to win, but the pressure could start ramping up, especially if they do not get a result against Tech.

“No one's really comfortable. Nothing's really settled. It's all still in front of us,” added Lenard. And that last bit is where the Baylor approach lies. The opportunity.

“There's like worry, but I think that that's where the positives stem from, it's that passion. So it's just translating that to being more positive,” Jenna Patterson offered.

The team mentality is that they have an opportunity, or more specifically three. Not just opportunities to play and to win, but opportunities to have fun and keep their season going just a little bit longer.

“We haven't been talking much in those terms,” noted Hallie Augustyn. “I think that getting one more result would be very helpful. Getting three more would be even more helpful, and that's what we're aiming for.” 

But what will it take to make the Big 12 tournament?

If the Bears want to make it easy, a win and a draw should put them securely in at 10 points or 1.11 ppg. Win once but lose the others would also make the Bears’ odds decent. Just a draw or even no points at all from the last three games could work in the end, but that would require some good fortune. And no one wants to rely on that.

So all the green and gold can do is focus on what is directly in front of them, and that is Texas Tech, this Thursday at 7 PM CT (on ESPN+).