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Big 12 Preview: Kansas State looks to plod its way to another bowl

July 13, 2017
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Kansas State Wildcats

2016 record: 9-4; 1-8 Big 12
Postseason results: Won Texas Bowl 33-28 v. Texas A&M
Coach: Bill Snyder (27th, 211-109-1 at KSU)

Over the last nine years, KSU’s recruiting class has ranked inside the top-five in the Big 12 exactly zero times (per 247Sports rankings.) It’s also sat at the bottom of the totem pole three times, never escaping the bottom three as neighbors with Iowa State and Kansas. But neither of those schools have just a combined four bowl appearances since the 2008 season

Kansas State has qualified for a bowl the past seven years after Bill Snyder came out of retirement eight seasons ago.

There have been plenty of obstacles in the way beyond the matter that virtually no one wants to hang their hat in the Little Apple of Manhattan, Kansas.

Countless injuries have shifted the roster around beyond recognition like 2015 when a wide receiver was placed behind center. But Snyder’s made a living of putting players out of position, like creating a Heisman finalist with QB Collin Klein in 2012 after previously playing receiver.

The only three prospects graded four stars or better since 2009 (actually, all three were recruited in 2009) were drafted while eight players with three-star grades or worse into the pros including All-American Tyler Lockett and most recently, two-star defensive end Jordan Willis.

Snyder’s ability to play to his players’ strengths opposed to his has been the hallmark for the Hall of Fame coach. Maybe the Wildcats aren’t contender but they’re the definition of consistency despite having anything but that luxury in their locker room.

Top three players: DE Reggie Walker, FB Winston Dimel, DB D.J. Reed
With Matt Rhule, Baylor joins KSU as one of the only schools to use a fullback. If whoever takes on that new role can be half the player Dimel, the Bears will be comfortable. Dimel punched in a dozen touchdowns last season while also providing tremendous support as a blocker, making him an obvious selection for the preseason All-Big 12 team. Joining him on the preseason team, Walker looks like one of the premier edge rushers in the conference after logging 4.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles in his freshman campaign, ready to take Jordan Willis’ place on the line. Junior cornerback D.J. Reed also looks the part as one of the top cover corners in the conference. He batted down 16 passes and three interceptions after transferring to KSU last season.

Biggest losses:
LB Elijah Lee, DE, Jordan Willis, RB Charles Jones
The Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, Willis’s graduation is the obvious hole in the defense. Over the past two seasons, he posted 20 sacks and 31.5 tackles for loss, leaving big shoes to fill on defense. Lee’s absence leaving for the NFL a year early is also substantial considering the multitude of roles he played the past couple years first as a pass rush specialist then into a well-rounded prospect that’d lock down the middle of the field in coverage as quick as he’d bring down the quarterback. Jones was most productive his first season in 2014 but he became gradually more efficient over the years, good for five yards a carry. He wasn’t flashy but he was a constant the offense could lean on to control the game.

Strength:
Bill Snyder factor
See above story. There’s not one particularly strong position that stands above the rest of the team. The offensive line is always rock solid no matter who left, so expect the same with this squad led by preseason all-conference selection Dalton Risner. Don’t forget fullback Winston Dimel’s ability in protection, either. The Wildcats greatest strength, doesn’t come from one position, it’s how the whole group makes other teams play against themselves and the clock. Since Snyder’s return, the Wildcats have averaged over 50 percent of time of possession every year, ranking inside the top 25 in the nation in ball control. KSU held the ball 36 minute last season against Baylor, ultimately dashing any hopes of a Bears win.

Weakness: Passing game
It’s a known weakness and Snyder knows that well. But teams still have to pass and if Jesse Ertz continues to grow, Snyder may be willing to bend a little and let his dual-threat QB sling it a bit more. Ertz showed some considerable growth to close out the season completing over 60 percent of passes in six of his last seven games. He also only threw two of his four interceptions in that span, mostly relying on his legs to avoid too many faux pas. Working to his advantage, his top targets Byron Pringle and Dominique Heath return to the fold, hopefully turning this weakness into a strength or at least less of a handicap.

Emerging star
: RB Alex Barnes
KSU running backs have hardly been highlights recently as the team has shifted to an attack focused on versatile quarterbacks. Jesse Ertz led the team in rushing last season while Joe Hubener and Jake Waters weren’t far behind the previous three seasons. Barnes, a 3-star recruit, looks to change that after some strong showcases as freshman. For a RB ranked outside the top 50 of his position in his class, he’s the total package with slashing and trucking ability on top of great top-end speed out of the backfield. Always falling forward, Barnes led the Big 12 with 3.86 yards after contact per attempt, the top mark among returning RBs. That made up roughly half of his average carry as he totaled 442 yards and six TDs as a part-time player.

Impact newcomer: LB Da’Quan Patton
After losing Elijah Lee’s versatile abilities, Patton looks to be the heir to his role be it either as a pass rusher or cover linebacker. A twitchy athlete, he displayed innate abilities in both roles during his juco time. Like Lee, he’s a bit undersized compared to prototypical linebackers but that shouldn’t be an issue considering the hybrid role he’s inheriting that doesn’t require a 6-foot-6, 250-pound frame.

Threat to Baylor:
Medium
The Wildcats have won just two of the last six games against Baylor but this is a new era and KSU has the advantage after last season winning 42-21 in Waco. Now the Bears have to travel into Manhattan after barely escaping its grasps in 2015 with a loaded roster. How Baylor’s new defense adapts to KSU’s variants on the single-wing formation that’s kept more games competitive than one would expect from sub-par recruiting pools. Working in Baylor’s favor, if there’s a coach that can combat Snyder’s methodical approach on offense, it’s Rhule whose team last season ranked ninth in the nation in time of possession- don’t get the popcorn ready until the fourth quarter, this game could take five hours.
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Big 12 Preview: Kansas State looks to plod its way to another bowl

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