The Pac-12 awaits an upcoming media deal announcement

Well, this is on MSN.


The Big Ten Is Reportedly Targeting 2 More Schools (msn.com)

Gosh a lot to think about.

I do agree the B12 is in a more stable spot than PAC 12 and seemingly the ACC right now.

The PAC numbers are important. If decent I think they stay together for the time being with no GOR. If bad offer, I think we can expect some applications. If we get some I think we should take the best 2 to further destabilize the PAC. Teams not willing to sign a GOR or asking for unequal distribution should not be added.

I'm thinking we could really get good revenues if we could add Oregon and (somehow) lure FSU, Clemson and others to the B12. Still not SEC or B10 money but a solid 3rd place.

A lot would have to happen but one can dream right?

BearFan33 said:

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Gosh a lot to think about.

I do agree the B12 is in a more stable spot than PAC 12 and seemingly the ACC right now.

The PAC numbers are important. If decent I think they stay together for the time being with no GOR. If bad offer, I think we can expect some applications. If we get some I think we should take the best 2 to further destabilize the PAC. Teams not willing to sign a GOR or asking for unequal distribution should not be added.

I'm thinking we could really get good revenues if we could add Oregon and (somehow) lure FSU, Clemson and others to the B12. Still not SEC or B10 money but a solid 3rd place.

A lot would have to happen but one can dream right?

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All the scenarios about adding Oregon or Wash seem to be about the B10 staying where they are. It may be click-bait or it may be smoke, but the equation changes if the B10 goes active again.

I think Big 10 will add.. they have to protect their west coast investment in USC and UCLA..

Some combination of linear/cable/streaming will make the numbers work where adding Oregon and Washington and maybe Cal and Stanford will be additive.

If amazon and/or apple fund two more schools to the Big10 it may happen but i don't think Big10 will expand just to expand. Warren was interested and the presidents said no. New commish would have to sell the presidents who just said no. Once Big10 adds then SEC and ESPN feel obligated to respond which throws the ACC into complete and utter chaos.

Big12 would stand to potentially gain VT, Pitt, Louisiville, and someone else. Would make a nice regional hub for WV and Cincy. At that point you might as well make regional pods and the conference championship is 2 or 3 games. Highest ranked pod winner is one seed. Lowest is 4 seed. Or if 3 pods highest ranked gets a bye.

Stefano DiMera said:

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I think Big 10 will add.. they have to protect their west coast investment in USC and UCLA..

Some combination of linear/cable/streaming will make the numbers work where adding Oregon and Washington and maybe Cal and Stanford will be additive.

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I agree. If the B10 starts making those rumblings, 4 Corners may move B12. I don't see FSU or Clemson coming B12, they may lose to UCF on the field but won't be in same Conference.

Now Miami is going to be in a bind and fits in the B12 more than the SEC or B10.

Can B12 take 4 Corners, Miami and NC State? That may fly and keep everyone happy. This is why I think a 3 Conference Model can work versus a 2 Conference. I think 3 is pushing it when you get to 18 team Conferences.

SEC would be how many with FSU and Clemson? Who else- Ga Tech?
B10 with Oregon, Wash, Duke and UNC?

I can't see Duke and UNC wanting SEC.

The Big 2 have to be very careful. Each of their current members and near future announced members are going to be making so much that a new member has to bring an astronomical value for it to work for these members of the new SEC and B10 to just make the same with the addition. I'm not sure any of these 16 in each conference are going to vote to make less than currently slated.

Then you have to look at these networks who are driving the realignment anyway, it isn't the schools. If the media partners of the ACC can televise Clemson at a lower cost. Why would the same media partners agree now 12 years before that contract ends to televise them for a lot more by moving them to one of the Big 2? Again FSU and Clemson can make threats but it really isn't the schools are conferences for that matter really making these calls, it is the networks.

BIG adds ORE & Wash, and two ACC schools. SEC adds 4 schools from ACC. Both get to 20. Big 12 adds 4 from PAC and 4 from ACC to get to 20. Most likely Big 12 additions will be AZ, AZ St, Col, Utah, GA Tech, NC State, Va Tech and Miami or Louisville

I'm really not sure the SEC, B10 and XII want to go to 20 actually. I kind of think 18 is the maximum number for a workable conference. I also think if the ACC does actually open up now, and again, I cant believe the media partners are going to allow that, the majority of the XII's pick ups should be from the eastern direction.

BearFan33 said:

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Gosh a lot to think about.

I do agree the B12 is in a more stable spot than PAC 12 and seemingly the ACC right now.

The PAC numbers are important. If decent I think they stay together for the time being with no GOR. If bad offer, I think we can expect some applications. If we get some I think we should take the best 2 to further destabilize the PAC. Teams not willing to sign a GOR or asking for unequal distribution should not be added.

I'm thinking we could really get good revenues if we could add Oregon and (somehow) lure FSU, Clemson and others to the B12. Still not SEC or B10 money but a solid 3rd place.

A lot would have to happen but one can dream right?

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I don't think the media partners are agreeing to a PAC-12 deal without a GOR component. Those protect the network's investment as much as anything else. Those partners don't want to make a deal for one group of schools and end up being on the hook for a lesser set of schools.

PartyBear said:

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The Big 2 have to be very careful. Each of their current members and near future announced members are going to be making so much that a new member has to bring an astronomical value for it to work for these members of the new SEC and B10 to just make the same with the addition. I'm not sure any of these 16 in each conference are going to vote to make less than currently slated.

Then you have to look at these networks who are driving the realignment anyway, it isn't the schools. If the media partners of the ACC can televise Clemson at a lower cost. Why would the same media partners agree now 12 years before that contract ends to televise them for a lot more by moving them to one of the Big 2? Again FSU and Clemson can make threats but it really isn't the schools are conferences for that matter really making these calls, it is the networks.

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This is the part few people talk about our acknowledge. The larger these conferences grow, the more money each new member must be worth to avoid being a dilutive addition. Each new school must be able to pay for itself, and that gets really hard when you're talking about $60-plus million a year.

bear2be2 said:

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PartyBear said:

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The Big 2 have to be very careful. Each of their current members and near future announced members are going to be making so much that a new member has to bring an astronomical value for it to work for these members of the new SEC and B10 to just make the same with the addition. I'm not sure any of these 16 in each conference are going to vote to make less than currently slated.

Then you have to look at these networks who are driving the realignment anyway, it isn't the schools. If the media partners of the ACC can televise Clemson at a lower cost. Why would the same media partners agree now 12 years before that contract ends to televise them for a lot more by moving them to one of the Big 2? Again FSU and Clemson can make threats but it really isn't the schools are conferences for that matter really making these calls, it is the networks.

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This is the part few people talk about our acknowledge. The larger these conference grows, the more money each new member must be worth to avoid being a dilutive addition. Each new school must be able to pay for itself, and that gets really hard when you're talking about $60-plus million a year.

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I agree, it will have to be a big payday to make it work. I can see the following combos.

B10 - UNC and Duke is what I think they are wating on for the ultimate. (18)

SEC - Clemson and FSU gets them to 18

B12 - AZ, ASU, COL, Utah and NC State and Miami (18)

That is what I see...

bear2be2 said:

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BearFan33 said:

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Gosh a lot to think about.

I do agree the B12 is in a more stable spot than PAC 12 and seemingly the ACC right now.

The PAC numbers are important. If decent I think they stay together for the time being with no GOR. If bad offer, I think we can expect some applications. If we get some I think we should take the best 2 to further destabilize the PAC. Teams not willing to sign a GOR or asking for unequal distribution should not be added.

I'm thinking we could really get good revenues if we could add Oregon and (somehow) lure FSU, Clemson and others to the B12. Still not SEC or B10 money but a solid 3rd place.

A lot would have to happen but one can dream right?

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I don't think the media partners are agreeing to a PAC-12 deal without a GOR component. Those protect the network's investment as much as anything else. Those partners don't want to make a deal for one group of schools and end up being on the hook for a lesser set of schools.

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Pac contract might have a lot of loopholes for the network that leaves the conference very vulnerable.

RMF5630 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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PartyBear said:

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The Big 2 have to be very careful. Each of their current members and near future announced members are going to be making so much that a new member has to bring an astronomical value for it to work for these members of the new SEC and B10 to just make the same with the addition. I'm not sure any of these 16 in each conference are going to vote to make less than currently slated.

Then you have to look at these networks who are driving the realignment anyway, it isn't the schools. If the media partners of the ACC can televise Clemson at a lower cost. Why would the same media partners agree now 12 years before that contract ends to televise them for a lot more by moving them to one of the Big 2? Again FSU and Clemson can make threats but it really isn't the schools are conferences for that matter really making these calls, it is the networks.

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This is the part few people talk about our acknowledge. The larger these conference grows, the more money each new member must be worth to avoid being a dilutive addition. Each new school must be able to pay for itself, and that gets really hard when you're talking about $60-plus million a year.

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I agree, it will have to be a big payday to make it work. I can see the following combos.

B10 - UNC and Duke is what I think they are wating on for the ultimate. (18)

SEC - Clemson and FSU gets them to 18

B12 - AZ, ASU, COL, Utah and NC State and Miami (18)

That is what I see...

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I don't see your scenario being the big pay day it needs to be for the big 2. The only one really not lined up with a Big 2 right now that I think without question brings the pay day necessary to one of the Big 2 is ND.

ND is the only true needle mover left. Oregon has Nike, Clemson plays good football, and UNC/Duke hoop. If Clemson goes back to 8-4 for 5+ years do they offer as much value as now? When Phil Knight passes does Nike slow down the money train to Oregon? Basketball is a revenue winner but much less so than football. FSU has struggled raising the money to compete with the SEC more or less their own mediocre conference brethren.

Big 12 with AZ, ASU, CU, UT, VT and Miami would be sweet!

I contacted 4 former @pac12 fb coaches to get their take on the current state of affairs. They are dismayed and sometimes fatalist: "It's teetering on the brink," former @oregonfootball coach Mike Bellotti. https://t.co/pNduzUWInO

— Dennis Dodd (@dennisdoddcbs) February 28, 2023

🚨 NEW EPISODE 🚨@Brett_McMurphy called in from a behind a mechanic's garage (fact!) to talk Pac-12/CFB TV deals and more looming realignment

🔉 Listen + Subscribe! https://t.co/uswp7WP4hO pic.twitter.com/pxO3dxPbpO

— The Solid Verbal College Football Podcast (@SolidVerbal) February 28, 2023

PartyBear said:

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RMF5630 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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PartyBear said:

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The Big 2 have to be very careful. Each of their current members and near future announced members are going to be making so much that a new member has to bring an astronomical value for it to work for these members of the new SEC and B10 to just make the same with the addition. I'm not sure any of these 16 in each conference are going to vote to make less than currently slated.

Then you have to look at these networks who are driving the realignment anyway, it isn't the schools. If the media partners of the ACC can televise Clemson at a lower cost. Why would the same media partners agree now 12 years before that contract ends to televise them for a lot more by moving them to one of the Big 2? Again FSU and Clemson can make threats but it really isn't the schools are conferences for that matter really making these calls, it is the networks.

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This is the part few people talk about our acknowledge. The larger these conference grows, the more money each new member must be worth to avoid being a dilutive addition. Each new school must be able to pay for itself, and that gets really hard when you're talking about $60-plus million a year.

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I agree, it will have to be a big payday to make it work. I can see the following combos.

B10 - UNC and Duke is what I think they are wating on for the ultimate. (18)

SEC - Clemson and FSU gets them to 18

B12 - AZ, ASU, COL, Utah and NC State and Miami (18)

That is what I see...

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I don't see your scenario being the big pay day it needs to be for the big 2. The only one really not lined up with a Big 2 right now that I think without question brings the pay day necessary to one of the Big 2 is ND.

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Reality is they are not going to get it in the per year limiting to the current population of schools. There is only so much. If that is the ONLY metric that will move the needle than there is no reason to expand and the 2 Super Conference model dies.

What they could get is longer term under current model. Or more sports coverage in a wide area, think World Cup or Champions League in College... Going international increases the pie, but enough? Most sports could work BB, Olympic Sports, Hockey, Soccer. Only Football, Baseball and Lacrosse would have a rough time. Baseball could work in Pacific. I think the creative models you ultimately see could be shocking...

Just speculative talk, but trying to figure how do you grow the pie to allow for more growth? More Sports, More Forums, More coverage area, etc... There has to be a path to more to grow.

Is there an international market for college sports? I doubt it seriously. BB, Basketball, Olympic Sports, Lacrosse etc already have pros and pro leagues. To the extent it could be done it has probably been explored by the pro leagues. There's a much better chance you could make money showing International Cricket in the US than Lacrosse.

Oregon State president sounds off on Pac-12. We covered:

- Media rights
- unequal distributions
- “noise”
- Higher Ed vs $$ https://t.co/cjuy0fuCxr

— John Canzano (@johncanzanobft) February 28, 2023

CorsicanaBear said:

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Is there an international market for college sports? I doubt it seriously. BB, Basketball, Olympic Sports, Lacrosse etc already have pros and pro leagues. To the extent it could be done it has probably been explored by the pro leagues. There's a much better chance you could make money showing International Cricket in the US than Lacrosse.

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Today? No. Besides when the Olympics were truly amateurs' it has not existed. But look at the top money sports -

Champions Leagues - 43 million
Europe Football - 33 million
FIFA World Cup - 31 million
FedEx Cup = 21 million

To put in perspective, Super Bowl 8.5 million (Source: Forbes)

These may not be exact and we can argue overhead and other details. My point is that the Europeans have learned that multi-national events generate money at a geometric rate.

IF College Sports wants to grow and add more it has to come from somewhere.

1 - The pie is about maxed out as we are seeing in the expansion wars. Schools like Oregon, Washington, Miami, and others are not able to generate enough revenue to make the pie grow.

2 - We are now hearing about streaming and other on the fringe methods to generate that revenue. Makes me suspect they are searching for models to get that pie bigger.

3 - The problem is not US Football or Basketball. It is the non-revenue sports. So, how do you make the non-revenue sports become revenue sports...

I believe that search will ultimately lead to looking at the most lucrative, anticipated and watched events and sports on earth. I can see international championships becoming part of it. University level international tourneys, Championships, etc... Now Olympic Sports can generate revenue. A Stanford becomes a power, not a drain. Academic reputation gets boosted by creating relationships with top research and academic power Conferences.

Think bigger...

K State "insider" indicates there could be news as soon as tomorrow regarding PAC's deal and that it's around $25mil/ team/ year with ESPN and Amazon. Expects CU and Arizona to apply for Big XII membership. TIFWIW.

If two schools apply somewhere else and are accepted, I assume that also kills the brand new deal or makes it less money to split up among the smaller remnant I should say.

If Arizona joins the Big 12 wouldn't ASU also want to join?

BluesBear said:

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Big 12 with AZ, ASU, CU, UT, VT and Miami would be sweet!

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I agree.

If VT joined the Big 12, Baylor might be playing Drones.

I don't want Oregon. They are another UT. I wish we'd take Arizona and Arizona State. We don't need Utah or Colorado but I know we will take them...THEN set our eyes back east and see what we can get. If Clemson and Florida State are a no-go, then go for Virginia Tech and North Carolina State

fadskier said:

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I don't want Oregon. They are another UT. I wish we'd take Arizona and Arizona State. We don't need Utah or Colorado but I know we will take them...THEN set our eyes back east and see what we can get. If Clemson and Florida State are a no-go, then go for Virginia Tech and North Carolina State

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Sadly, I'm thinking FSU is a no go for the B12, maybe Clemson too at this time. They will be invited to B10 or SEC in next round of re-alignment. Greyson had a report that FSU would be the third highest brand value in the SEC (or something along those lines). I'm thinking they eventually force the ACC into unequal sharing as they wait for an invite to a P2.

Maybe Yormark makes a miracle happen. We are a growing exciting conference. But probably we will settle on some second tier east teams that add value and would be happy in a bigger B12.

Right now I think we have to focus on poaching a P12 team or 2 who add or are at least maintain our media value and are all in on the B12.

Another wildcard out there is Notre Dame. They seem to want to stay independent until they can't anymore. If they go to the B10 it could set off another round of realignment. I think I read they are somehow tied to the ACC for the time being, but that could change if ACC blows up.

And Pitt

I hear the Dumont Network is coming back. They can toss this pathetic conference a crumb