Baylor Beating No. 11 Utah Would Be the Biggest Upset Since Win Over No. 1 Kansas State

How historic would a Baylor win on the road in Salt Lake City be? This is a big question that has been significantly overlooked this week as Baylor heads to Utah as a 15-point underdog.

Utah is 32-3 in its last 35 home games, which span from 2018-2024. Each of those losses has been against a ranked opponent, with two of the losses coming against top 10 teams. Only six of those wins have come in one-score games, as the Utes have typically dominated their opponents each time they enter Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Here are the three games Utah has dropped at home since 2018:

• 2018 lost 21-7 vs. No. 10 Washington
• 2020 lost 33-17 vs. No. 20 USC (COVID YEAR)
• 2023 lost 35-7 vs. No. 8 Oregon

The betting lines for each game were Washington -4, USC -2.5 and Oregon -5.5. Yes, you read that right. Utah has not lost as a favorite at home in over six years, much less as a double-digit favorite.

There are a few common factors that have led to these rare upsets. Let’s examine the areas where opponents built an edge on Utah to get the win…

Offense

• Utah averaged just 10.3 points per game
• Utah averaged just 111 rushing yards per game with a 3.6-yard per carry average
• Utah converted just 37.7% on 3rd down
• Utah finished with a 4.8 yards per pass average while completing just 53% of its passes
• Utah allowed seven sacks in the three games
• Utah turned the ball over 10 times compared to just four by its opponents 

Defense

• Allowed 29.6 points per game
• Allowed 358 total yards on average
• Totaled four sacks in the three games
• Allowed a 41.6% conversion rate on 3rd down

Utah was essentially blown out in all of these games due to its inefficient offense, below-standard defense and horrific turnover luck against teams that were better than them.

What does Baylor need to do to win this game?

First, the Bears will have to force at least two more turnovers than Utah. Each of these teams won the turnover battle by at least two, with the exception of Oregon, which was far and away the superior team last season.

Second, Baylor will have to hold Utah’s run game to less than 130 yards, which is what each of these teams did.

The third priority is not giving up explosive plays in the pass game. Utah averaged just 4.8 yards per pass attempt. For context on how bad that is, Blake Shapen and Sawyer Robertson averaged 7.3 yards per attempt last season. It was because Utah was not creating explosive plays, which led to them having to try to be efficient and precise on every drive. That is very tough to do.

The final priority if the Bears want to win this game is Dequan Finn’s (6Sr.) efficiency. On average the quarterbacks who went into Salt Lake City and came out with a win posted 7.4 yards per attempt,  completed 68.8% of their passes, and turned it over just once. A stat line of 20-for-30 for 250 total yards of offense with two touchdowns and one interception is likely what it will take to have a chance to win the game.

It’s a tall task, but that is what it takes to win a historic game. If the Bears find a way to steal one in Rice-Eccles Stadium as a 15-point underdog, it would truly be the biggest upset for the Bears since they beat No. 1 Kansas State in 2012 as 10-point underdogs.