Baylor Soccer Travels to Provo for Clash with Cougars

With all the home games in the books, Baylor Soccer (7-6-3, 2–4-2) is setting out on road to finish the regular season. Before the finale next week against Iowa State, the Bears must play BYU in Provo and Utah in Salt Lake City.

The Bears currently sit at 10th in the Big 12. The top 12 teams make the conference tournament. Michelle Lenard’s squad also sits 46th nationally in RPI, moving further away from a good bubble position for the NCAA tournament in the lower thirties.

With limited opportunities left to bolster their resume, the Green and Gold know how much is on the line in each game moving forward.

“We know that we have to perform well in these games,” said sophomore defender Natalie Vatter on Wednesday, “And we all want to be competing in the Big 12 tournament and NCAA Tournament, so it gives us that extra incentive behind each game that we go into.”

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Natalie Vatter (right) and Skye Leach (left) celebrate a Baylor goal with their teammate.

The incentive has grown throughout conference play as the Bears lost some momentum that they carried from strong non-conference results.

Baylor has given up less than one goal per game, but they have not scored in their four Big 12 losses. 

“We've been in all these games,” said head coach Michelle Lenard, “They've been winnable for us. And so we have to trust the process. At this point, we're producing some good performances that we know if we do that consistently, are going to result in more wins.”

Specifically, a higher conversion rate on goal-scoring chances is the key for the Bears. In most matches, the Bears find dangerous spaces in the attacking third, but the last pass or shot is scuffed or gets blocked, not to mention saved or fired out of bounds.

When the Bears are converting, they can rack up goals quickly, as shown in 4-0 wins over Arizona State and Houston. Baylor needs to find ways to convert against the better teams though.

For now, BYU, Utah and Iowa State are not the best of the best competition, so opportunity abounds.

“We're excited,” said graduate midfielder Kai Hayes, “But we also know that there's kind of a little bit of pressure. But where there's pressure, there is that privilege to just go out there and have no fear and compete to win.”

The BYU Cougars are 6-5-4 and 4-2-2 in Big 12 play. For a team that started the year in the national top five, the Cougars have disappointed. 

They sit at 6th in the Big 12 and 40th in RPI and frankly have not beaten anyone better than Baylor in the Big 12 yet. After going to the Women’s College Cup last year (Final Four), BYU is on the NCAA Tournament bubble in 2024.

“They're not that [2023] team in terms of experience and maybe even overall talent right now with as young as they are,” says Michelle Lenard, “But they're that team mentally like they think they're still that team, and they play like that. So they're aggressive, they compete for everything.”

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Tyler Isgrig (right) attempts a shot against BYU in the Bears 2023 4-0 loss to the Cougars.

The Bears are in for a fight in Provo, but this Cougars team has only kept four shutouts this season and has scored more than twice in just one game. 

Given Baylor’s solid defense, this could be a relatively good matchup for Baylor given BYU’s typical quality.

“They compete about anything,” emphasized Kai Hayes, “Even if they don't have a chance at it, they're gonna go for it. So just making sure we're out-competing them, out-gritting them, and just bringing it to them first.“

Michelle Lenard went further than speaking to keys of the game saying that the Bears are better than the Cougars right now.

“I do think they have more vulnerabilities [than in previous years], and I think man to man, that we're better, but we know going into this game that we're going to have to win the X-factors. We can't let them edge us out on things like competing for loose balls and confidence and finishing in front of the net”

While the game will be decided on the field in the end, there are a couple of extra factors to consider when looking at this matchup: Elevation, environment and weather.

At about 4,500 feet above sea level, Provo will provide a challenge similar to games at Colorado previously and at Utah immediately after.

Hayes said that extra emphasis was placed on good hydration, a little extra sleep and eating extra to combat any effects of altitude for the Bears.

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Kai Hayes plays the ball forward for Baylor against TCU.

As for the environment in Provo, fan buy-in for their successful program has been great and their South Field has capacity for 4,200. It can be a rowdy place to play, so the Green and Gold also need to be ready for the challenges that accompany that.

“Obviously all the fans there are there for the other team, but just the fact that they come out there and they support and they're yelling for a woman's game is just insane,” said Hayes, “So I'm excited about it. It will be an environment that everyone dreams to play in.“

This should also be the coldest game the Bears have played this year with temperatures forecasted in the low fifties at kickoff. Scattered thunderstorms are also predicted for Thursday in Provo, so there is a chance for a lightning delay and at least wet conditions.

Focusing back on Baylor, there is trust in the process of Coach Lenard and her staff.

The team has stayed tight-knit through the ups and downs of the season. Plus, the on-field product has been consistent in some advanced stats, specifically expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) to name a pair, so Coach Lenard stays confident.

“We do believe that if you do that week in and week out, you win those metrics [xG, etc.], that you're going to win the game more often than not”

Starting defender Marissa Gray is at risk of missing some playing time this week, but the staff is hopeful to see her in the game at Utah if not at BYU tomorrow night. Freshman Paisley Mabra — who enrolled early to participate in the spring exhibitions and training — will likely fill in in place of Gray, though there are other solid options a well.

“Our defense has been consistently good all season long,” said Coach Lenard, “I think the last two games were the first time all year that we've kind of let in some softer goals. that's bound to happen at some point, and I expect that they'll rebound really well this week.”

Kickoff is set for 8 PM CT on Thursday night and the game will be streamed on ESPN+.