NCAA Bracketology: WBB Hosting? MBB on Bubble? Latest Projections & More

Baylor MBB heads to the Big 12 Tournament with more to prove, while head coach Nicki Collen’s WBB squad awaits a decision on whether they will host or not following a strong run in the Big 12 Tournament this past week.

Baylor MBB (18-13, 10-10)

• On3: 9-seed vs 8-seed Connecticut
• Bracket Madness: 9-seed
• Coaches and Crew: 9-seed vs. 8-seed Connecticut
• Bracket Odds: 9-seed vs. 8-seed Creighton
• RotoWire: 10-seed vs. 7-seed Memphis
• NCAA.com: 10-seed vs. 7-seed Indiana
• ESPN: 10-seed vs 7-seed Marquette (Last Four Byes)
• Bracket Matrix: 10-seed
• T-Rank: 10-seed (Last Four Byes)
• SicEm365: 10-seed
• Five-Star: 11-seed vs. 6-seed Illinois (Last Four Byes)
• CBS: 11-seed vs 11-seed San Diego State (First Four)

Things have changed over the last seven days for Baylor’s seeding projections. The Bears beat TCU and lost to a one-seed in Houston yet fell some in the projections. Many more 11-seed projections have been added, but there are still quite a few 10-seed and nine-seed ones, with the most common projection being a 10-seed.

I said last week that if Baylor beat TCU, they would be locked in, but these projections don’t give me much confidence. If the Bears mess around and lose in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, then they will be just praying to survive the possibility of bracket-busters. If Baylor beats Kansas State or Arizona State then they will secure their spot, if not then this is going to be way closer than I thought it would be.

If Baylor takes care of business, it will secure at least a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament and avoid the play-in-game. If the Bears win two games in the Big 12 Tournament, they will elevate to the eight-seed or nine-seed line. The Bears have a chance to control their destiny this week, which, with this team, is a bit of a scary thought.

I don’t understand how West Virginia has suddenly passed up Baylor on most bracket projections despite being 14 spots lower on the NET, 22 spots lower on KenPom and 12 spots lower on strength of schedule. Not to mention that Baylor has the head-to-head win, plus West Virginia doesn’t have its best player for the rest of the season. It’s supposed to be a full body of work — make it make sense.

Baylor WBB (27-7, 15-3)

• ESPN: 4-seed vs. 13-seed UTSA
• Her Hoops: 4-seed vs. 13-seed Grand Canyon
• NCAA.com: 4-seed vs 13-seed Hawaii
• The Athletic: 4-seed vs. 13-seed Ball State
• College Sports Madness: 4-seed vs. 13-seed Missouri State
• SicEm365: 4-seed

A very impressive showing at the Big 12 Tournament has seen the Bears solidify themselves as a top-four seed, which means they would host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament.

The Bears secured two meaningful wins over Iowa State and No. 21 Oklahoma State and narrowly lost to No. 8 TCU in the conference tournament championship game. The runner-ups in the Big 12 deserve hosting rights since going on an 11-2 run since the end of January.

The Bears should get the chance to host the first two rounds and will have a plausible path to get back to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. Hopefully, things fall in favor because dropping to the five-seed line and traveling elsewhere would be a considerable disadvantage.