Quick Stats & Roster Snapshot: Three New Opponents for Non-Conference

It can be tough to keep up with your team’s roster changes each year (as SEC Shorts recently parodied), much less everyone you play each year. Making it tougher is when, either due to expanded conferences or out-of-conference schedules changing, you get completely new opponents. 

Baylor has three of them this year, and while I will do an in-depth roster preview each week, this gives a quick idea of how the three out-of-conference newcomers to Baylor’s schedule stacked up statistically last fall and how their core group of contributors either returned or were replaced since last fall.

Groundrules

Below, I break down which players are gone or added from the prior season’s main core group. Names highlighted in gray are out of eligibility, red are transfers out, yellow are possibly injured, blue are transfers in and green are notable freshman newcomers. 

The testing times from their time as a recruit are below. The estimated 40 time is based on guessing a 40 time from their high school 100-meter, 200-meter, 4x100 or 4x200 track times listed, as well as using figures provided by MileSplit’s conversion calculation. Their NCAA games, starts, and years removed from high school are also listed.

All metrics are red, yellow or green for poor, average or strong relative to their position. High school times are not always perfectly predictive of how guys will run for the NFL later, given that guys' bodies add or drop weight, running form improves or they get significantly stronger in the weight room, but it generally gives an idea of who is fast and who is not. A guy running a 10.5 in the 100 meters is unlikely to lack speed, for instance.

The stat charts will display a given metric with a team in their colors, alongside other teams' schedules in gray. The backgrounds will be shaded green, yellow or red, respectively, to indicate whether a metric is performing well, average or poor.

Auburn (2024 Record 5-7)

Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze is known as an offensive guru, but his Tigers were honestly better defensively in yards per drive relative to the schedule. The offense generated slightly less than the Power Four teams on their schedule gave up to other P4s, while the defense slowed them down better than other teams typically did.

One critical area where the Tigers struggled is converting yards into points in the red zone. P4 opponents did it easily, while Auburn didn't do it well. Frankly, Auburn’s performance against P4 teams mirrors that of lower-tier teams against Auburn. They need to improve their red zone efficiency to elevate their record significantly.

Offensive Core Group from 2024:

Auburn lost all of the quarterback room to either graduation or the portal, lost star tailback Jarquez Hunter, both tight ends, including a viable receiving threat in Fairweather and two guys from the wide receiver rotation, headlined by the loss of Penn State transfer Lambert-Smith, who was a good size and speed matchup problem.

They return two speedy threats at wide receiver, headlined by freak Cam Coleman. Their backup tailbacks, led by Damari Alston, saw time, but Hunter was the main guy, although they return almost all their offensive line.

Offensive Additions:

Auburn had one of the top transfer portal classes nationally, headlined by elite speedster Eric Singleton, who had over 700 yards for Georgia Tech. Colemancand Wake Forest transfer Horatio Fields are going to be among the three newcomers

Who will be throwing to them? Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold and freshman Deuce Knight each have all the tools but little to no proven production at the college level. Daniels is an experienced vet coming over from Stanford. All three can be viable runners and keep the designed runs in the playbook in the game plan. Preston Howard is a capable receiving threat at tight end from Maryland. Auburn upgraded its line by pairing its solid interior guys with Virginia Tech and USC’s starting tackles.

Defensive Core Group from 2024:

Defensively, the Tigers lost a lot to graduation on their starting group, with all but one of their front seven, while losing a safety starter to graduation and two backup defensive backs to the transfer portal. They return some solid defensive backs, a great defensive end in Keldric Faulk and several solid linemen in their backup defensive line rotation.

As a result, it was important to backfill the front, and they basically imported a new front six plus three defensive backs. They will all look the part, and the only size question is the slightly underweight LSU transfer at linebacker, who is very fast and fits the mold that Eugene Asante, Austin Keys and others set for the position.

James Ash was all SWAC at FAMU, while Chris Murray was an all-CUSA performer at Sam Houston State, with playing history at both defensive end and linebacker, which will be key for how Auburn uses the BUCK position. Caleb Wheatland gives them some experience at linebacker to help supplement the loss of three experienced veterans at WLB, MLB and SLB. Raion Strader got tons of accolades at Miami of Ohio as All-MAC and All-America, according to CFN. Rayshawn Pleasant was a solid starter on a solid Tulane defense. It’s a pretty solid group that fills a need.

Quick Summary:

Auburn will have a lot of future NFL guys and will be a tough test out of the gate for the 2025 season. How well new faces gel on defense and at QB will be big for them. The size and speed are there, but anyone who saw Texas in the 2010s knows how top recruits can misfire, and even if a team figures it out, it may take a bit. Time will tell what the story is for the Tigers.

SMU: (2024 Record 11-3)

Head coach Rhett Lashlee is the second opposing coach with a long reputation for dynamic offense, and like Freeze at Auburn, he has a defensive coordinator who led a solid unit a year ago that was arguably the better unit on the team.

The Mustangs were a breakthrough story in the ACC after being one of the top AAC teams for a couple of years. They had a solid offense, and their defense was the surprisingly stronger unit last fall. They did a great job limiting both BYU and TCU well below their usual yardage, although the Cougars held the SMU offense down.

Offensive Core from 2024:

The Mustangs return a good quarterback in Kevin Jennings, might get dynamic receiving tight end RJ Maryland back from injury and return three solid starters on the line. They lost their main skill guys virtually everywhere else, including notables like former wide receiver turned running back standout NFL Draft pick Brashard Smith, big back LJ Johnson and the three main wideouts for them, who are all in NFL camps.

Offensive Additions:

They replaced their backup quarterback, who left with former Miami and Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, and added a speedy Miami transfer at running back alongside UCLA starter TJ Harden as two options at tailback to compete with the existing roster. Yamir Knight is a speedy option from James Madison, while Dylan Goffney is a former SMU wide receiver who came back after leaving for playing time at Colorado State. Up front, they added well with Arkansas's starting center Addison Nichols and Joshua Bates at guard, who was an Oklahoma backup. The boom or bust pick is Zion Nelson; he started for three years at Miami before a knee injury.

Defensive Core from 2024:

To say SMU turned over its defensive roster is an understatement. They lost all four starters on the line to NFL camps, as well as two backup defensive tackles, and a third is potentially out injured. They lost both key linebackers, but they have a solid backup, which helps solidify one spot. They return one safety and one corner, but lost the rest of the main secondary, although key backups like Ahmaad Moses and Jaelyn Davis-Robinson remain.

Defensive Additions:

Needless to say, there was a need to backfill the defense. They added some solid pieces like the standout East Carolina linebacker Zakye Barke, a Purdue starter at nose tackle in Jeffrey M’Ba, a Texas State starting defensive tackle in Terry Webb, and a South Alabama starter in Aakil Washington on the edge. Some of the guys, like DJ Warner, Trey Wilson and others, were largely backups where they came from and probably add depth initially.

Quick Summary:

SMU will be another tough test at the start of the year. The Mustangs lost a lot on defense, but their coaching staff has done well at multiple stops and appears to have backfilled well. I expect Baylor to win, but it won’t be easy.

Samford (2024 Record 4-7)

The Bulldogs have been a decent FCS team in recent years, but were down in 2024 with 4-7 after losing three close games following 6-5 in 2023 and 11-2 in 2022, where they made noise in the FCS playoffs. Like Freeze and Lashlee, their head coach, Chris Hatcher, is known for a wide-open offensive scheme, but had a defensive unit that paced last year's team. Unfortunately, they lost defensive coordinator Scot Sloan to Cincinnati and hired a new one from the App State coaching staff. Last year, the offense was pretty average, but the defense was great. Obviously, Florida obliterated them as the one FBS team on the schedule.

Offensive Core from 2024:

Samford is led by dual-threat quarterback Quincy Crittendon, who has been the guy for a couple of years after coming off the bench to lead a walk-off touchdown drive for a playoff win in 2022. He has come a long way from that time, having been elevated from a backup to playing in key moments. Samford needs him to be great.

It's critical as they lost basically everyone else on offense. Remember how Colt and Grayson kept harping on how much Baylor worked to retain good players? This is an example of struggling to retain players on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they lost two key weapons and an experienced center to the portal in a year where graduation dealt a massive blow.

Offensive Additions:

They added four linemen to try and rebuild their line with two wideouts to backfill their wide receiver portal losses. The two experienced additions at the skill spots are CJ Evans and Calvin Jones, who each have over 1,000 yards in their careers. Needless to say, they lost a ton of experience and three potential impact guys.

Defensive Core Group From 2024:

Samford had a deep and experienced unit on defense last year, but lost six linemen to graduation and two starters to the portal. They lost arguably their top linebacker to graduation, along with two corners and a safety. The portal also took their nickel and a safety starter away as well. They return a limited time starting corner and their experienced WLB. They really turned over their defense, which bodes poorly for 2025.

Defensive Additions:

The Bulldogs added a lot of bodies that they desperately needed, but other than four defensive backs, there isn't much in-game experience, and overall, it's a group lacking size up front. The new defensive coordinator will have a rebuilding job on his hands.

Quick Summary:

There are years where a mid-major or FCS team can jump up and get you, but given their roster losses and how Baylor returns production, I will be shocked if this is competitive even for a quarter. Samford has their own issues at the FCS level, and a bunch of relatively inexperienced guys aren’t going to be good enough for Crittendon to carry to a win.

Conclusion

Auburn is getting a lot of preseason hype while SMU is ranked No. 16 going into the year. I am not one for preseason rankings, but needless to say, both should be solid tests. Samford figures to be a weaker FCS matchup as far as those go but it’s arguably a good thing this year as it breaks up the schedule after two tough opening games right before hosting another playoff team in No. 11 Arizona State, going on the road against what will likely be a tougher Oklahoma State team than last year, and then hosting preseason No. 17 Kansas State.