S11 X's and O's Preview: Samford's Air Raid and Underdog Defensive Scheme
This is Part 3 of my Baylor-Samford preview, covering Samford’s X’s and O’s. Part 1 covered the Bulldogs’ roster, while Part 2 covered Samford’s recent statistical performances.
Samford Brings Proven Schemes and Innovations To Waco
Chris Hatcher is Samford’s head coach. He’s got an impressive resume and a great coaching tree. He’s one of the Air Raid OG’s learning the offense from the original Hal Mumme/Mike Leach scheme and led Valdosta State to a national title as a coach, as well as a 76-12 record there. He, as a player, had a tenure as QB that won him the Harlan Hill trophy as the DII Heisman. His record since at Murray State, Georgia Southern and Samford is 10 games above .500, but he’s a solid offensive guru who has a coaching tree with such no-names as Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp lining its notoriety.
He’s a good coach, but the years since their playoff run in 2022 have not been kind. 10-12 since then, and he lost the DC who had that defense buzzing last year in the offseason, as Cincinnati hired him as safeties coach. Now he’s 0-2, facing a schedule that still has FBS dates at Baylor and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are a team in flux, but both sides of the ball feature schemes that have been among the more innovative and successful in college football over the last one to one-to-two decades.
Offense
This offense is based on the classic air raid. It’s straight up a variation on what Hatcher ran at Valdosta State as a player for some guys you may have heard of named Mumme and Leach, and later as a national title-winning coach.
During my time at SicEm365, I previewed a team running Valdosta’s offense in Northwestern State during the Briles years at Baylor. It’s a spread air raid with a lot of the classic air raid staples that others have mimicked. Some of the main concepts here are shown below.
However, other teams have made extensive use of air raid concepts, even if not the “Air Raid” coaching tree per se. I’ve seen Samford work these concepts as well.
You also cannot forget about the tailback in this offense. They’ll tag base concepts with downfield routes for him.
They will also feature the extensive screen game you expect from an Air Raid team.
In the run, they’ll mix in zone and gap schemes. They use a fair amount of dart where they pull the backside tackle.
However, with a QB that’s a dual threat like they have this year, you can expect a decent amount of QB runs, whether they be gap schemes, zone reads, options, or draws. They used one to win their FCS playoff game vs SELA in 2022 with this year’s starter.
Samford will attack RPO routes on most of their run plays.
This offense is schematically sound, makes you defend the full field and gives them a simple execution while making it complex for the defense.
Defense
After losing their coordinator to Cincinnati in the offseason, they hired Scot Sloan from App State. He’s a former assistant for Nate Woody, who was the DC at Wofford before he left for App State, Georgia Tech and now Army. This is effectively the same basic scheme that Baylor faced in 2013 when Wofford came to town. It’s an undersized 3-4 with a lot of one-gap principles and movement up front. Their DOG position is similar to Baylor’s JACK LB as an edge rusher hybrid position that’s kind of a DE and kind of an LB. Their STAR is a hybrid DB position similar to Baylor’s.
Back in 2013, I made a long-form video about opponents before I realized the time needed was not sustainable on my schedule. Wofford’s defense was summed up effectively in one of them, pictured below. It’s a great underdog strategy that maximizes advantages for places without perfect recruiting upside. Most of the relevant discussion for 2025 happens in this abridged clip. The full video, as well as the two offensive ones, are at the link above.
However, the one major change I have seen is a much stronger reliance on a match quarters coverage scheme than the old school Wofford zone coverages. Having a true DB at the STAR position allows them the flexibility to potentially have better matchups in man coverage and to make adjustments to formations with three receivers to a side. It also allows for better disguise and flexibility overall. Because they can play three guys for the two slot receivers on the left, with their corner taking the widest receiver outside those two, it allows them not to give easy throws to that side and not tip their hand about the corner blitz they offer to the single receiver side. In a cover three scenario, you would likely give the QB an easier post-snap read to work the three-receiver side, and the rolled coverage would potentially make it easier to isolate weaker coverage players.
When they face bigger personnel, they will sub one of their rush linebackers in as an SLB instead of the STAR.
It’s a scheme that has led to solid success both at the FCS level and at the FBS level, as it just powered Army to an upset of Kansas State last weekend.
Final Questions
What did you like schematically against SMU on defense?
After being frustrated with the game plan against Auburn sticking in a two-deep shell, even post-snap out of fear of getting beat deep, I was happy to see Baylor play some single coverage and some one-high safety looks. The interception with Jacob Redding in the end zone is included on this, and while SMU completed some passes against it, the Bears were able to use it to disrupt the consistent gains they surrendered to Auburn by alignment.
What do you want to see from/what do you define as success in this type of (hopefully) bodybag game?
I want to see an easy win, good execution, no injuries and an easy clean win. Beyond that, this game won’t validate the good things you do, as likely going forward, simply due to the level of athlete faced. If you struggle here, it’s a bad sign, but if you do well, it’s *maybe* a good sign.
Do you believe Baylor is holding off the read option due to Sawyer's health?
I do to an extent. I think on some key plays, the handcuffs are off, but for the most part, they want him not to take hits to keep him healthy. However, this is just my guess.
If you were a coach, how would you work on improving this defense with the pieces you've got? What's the No. 1 thing that needs practice?
You have to get the mental discipline down. Assignments and being sound are first and foremost, aside from getting healthy guys back from injury.
In terms of tactics, I would like to see some more one-gap principles mixed in if guys are struggling with the usual two-gap assignments. If they can’t do A then put them in a spot to be successful asking them to do B. Adapt to what they can do!
ESPN lists Samford with 1% chance of winning this game. Do you think this is accurate?
Given what I saw on film, I will not expect any close game. 2021 Texas Southern is the worst opponent from the FCS ranks that I have previewed Baylor against, and Samford would probably beat them, but none of the others since 2010.
Will Caden get more carries than Bryson, and will Sawyer sit second half and not get 200 yards passing?
It honestly depends on how long guys play as far as carries. I think they’ll get Sawyer Robertson to the opening drive of half two at the earliest, and he likely breaks 200 in shorter play counts.
How do you weigh getting our starters their stats (Sawyer) vs. keeping them out and protecting them from injury?
I want to end the fight early with a big lead and keep guys out. Nobody cares if you beat an FCS team 45-10, 50-7 or 70-3. They do care about contending in league play.
Prediction?
This game is not going to be close. Samford has a solid coaching staff, but both the X’s and O’s and the “Jimmies and Joes” matter, and they’ve only got a full hand on the first half of that equation. Baylor is far from perfect defensively, but held SMU to under 25 yards per drive on their seven second-half drives and stopped them cold in the second OT period.
The Baylor offense and the Samford defense are each team’s strength, but they aren’t facing Citadel or West Georgia and Baylor is going to light them up. If Auburn and SMU are unable to really limit them, it’s not happening with the depleted and portal-rebuilt Bulldogs.
- Baylor: 51
- Samford: 10
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