Baylor Football

Baylor’s Breaking Point: Familiar Mistakes, Same Results, Plus a Coach Running Out of Time

Somehow, someway, Baylor found itself down by just a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter in a road game against No. 21 Cincinnati despite trailing by as many as 24 points in the first half.
October 25, 2025
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CINCINNATI, Ohio – Despite trailing by as many as 24 points in the first half, somehow, someway, Baylor found itself down by just a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter against No. 21 Cincinnati.

All it needed was a stop.

Looking to get just one yard on fourth and short, Bearcats running back Chance Williams took the handoff from quarterback Brendan Sorsby, but was immediately met in the backfield by a swarm of Baylor defenders — a rare occurrence during Saturday’s contest.

What should have been a momentum-shifting run-stuff turned into another missed opportunity. 

Williams conveniently plopped down onto the body of an offensive lineman without hitting the ground — although it probably should have warranted a replay — and with some extra effort and elbow grease, muscled his way to the first-down marker as a number of other Bears seemingly watched Williams instead of attempting to stop him.

The camera panned to a silent, stoic Dave Aranda standing on the sidelines, neither showing frustration with his defense, nor protesting the spot, nor begging for a review. 

On the next play, Sorsby shot up the middle, jolted to the side — breaking safety Micah Gifford’s ankles in the process — and high-stepped into the endzone for a 23-yard score, capping off a seven-minute, 75-yard, back-breaking drive.

“The thing that strikes me is we’re in a position to get a stop and get the ball back to our offense to go win the game, and we just couldn’t do it,” Aranda said post-game. “Whether it was a yard short here or we didn’t make this communication there — it’s just so frustrating. We got ourselves in position, and we couldn’t do it.”

On the ensuing kick return, a big hit on wide receiver Kole Wilson jarred the ball loose, giving the Bearcats (7-1, 5-0) possession deep in Baylor’s own territory again. Moments later, Sorsby sidearmed a touchdown pass to seal the three-score loss, 41-20, for Aranda’s squad (4-4, 2-3). 

That crucial two-minute stretch that featured missed assignments, soft play up front, bad tackling and turnovers was a microcosm of not just this season but the last four years and likely put the nail in the coffin for any holdovers that believe Aranda should see another year in Waco at the helm of the Baylor football program.

“We have to look at the things that are constantly plaguing us, and we have to look at the things that we tried to do to fix them,” Aranda said. “We have to be able to say, ‘Hey, man. This is not working. Here are the things we need to go next. Here’s the attitude that we have to demand from our players and our coaches.’ We have to be able to take that next step. This team has a lot of talent. This team has a lot of care factor.”

In the defeat, the Bears were out-gained in total yardage, 376-to-266, and were gashed on the ground, giving up an average of 5.3 yards per carry. Baylor’s defense allowed Cincinnati to convert on third downs (9-of-14) and fourth downs (2-of-2) at ease. 

To make matters worse, the Bears also lost the turnover battle, 2-to-0, which drops them to a minus-10 turnover margin in Big 12 play. Baylor was also outscored in the first quarter, 14-0, and has been outscored in the first quarter this season, 48-23, against Power Four opponents.

“Starting fast was the message all week, and we did the opposite of that,” safety Jacob Redding said post-game. “We’ve got to take the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday practice to Saturday. It’s plain and simple. We preach starting fast and starting fast, but we come out and do this.”

Aranda added, “You talk about not starting as fast as we need to, and the turnovers — those have been consistent with our ills — we have to get that fixed. I have to get that fixed. That’s holding us back from some wins that we need and some momentum that we probably need even more.”

The ESPN broadcast mentioned that a players-only meeting took place this week on offense, yet, once again, it took the Bears far too long to get going, which has been an all-too-familiar theme this season for offensive coordinator Jake Spavital’s crew. 

The first half was plagued by the usual self-inflicted mistakes, low-lighted by a fumble from Ashtyn Hawkins, a crucial drop from Michael Trigg on third down, an overthrow on an easy touchdown from Sawyer Robertson and an unsuccessful fourth-down attempt where Caden Knighten wasn’t expecting the ball.

Although it took 29 minutes for their first score, Robertson (137 passing yards, 2 TD), Josh Cameron (4 catches, 34 yards, TD) and Michael Turner (14 carries, 90 rushing yards) finally settled in and got things going, but it was far too late as Cincinnati’s offense, on the other hand, was playing on air for much of the afternoon.

“There are guys that put a lot of pressure on themselves and try to go make the play by themself,” Aranda said of the repeated offensive struggles. “I don’t think it’s of the negative sort. If anything, guys are trying to do right too much. We have to have a balance of guys doing the right thing, but they’re in the lane of playing free, playing green, and have the confidence to go out and play aggressive, play fast.”

After dubbing this game against Cincinnati a “must-win,” the Bears now have to recalibrate their preseason expectations of winning the Big 12, which appear all but shattered after their third conference loss in just five games.

“The reality is we’re out of the Big 12 race — that was our goal at the beginning of the season,” Redding said. “Now, all we’ve got is the guys in the locker room. How we’re going to respond to the rest of the year [shows] our real character when adversity hits.”

When asked about what Baylor can do the rest of the season, Cameron noted, “Just playing the best that we can. Get the best bowl game that we can. At the end of the day, there are so many guys and seniors on this team who have dreams and aspirations of playing at the next level.”

With their backs against the wall in the biggest game of the season, the Bears came up short, plagued by the same problems we’ve seen week-in and week-out since the season opener against Auburn on Aug. 29, which ultimately falls at the feet of the coaching staff.

Regardless of quarterbacks, coordinators and roster talent, over the last four years, the truth is that Aranda’s program has suffered from slow starts and the same self-inflicted wounds, over and over and over and over again.

It’s time for a change, and Saturday’s loss probably solidified that view for the people responsible for making the decision. If Aranda is fired, the timing of when it goes down is obviously yet to be determined, but it’s hard to imagine this thing ever getting back on track with him at the helm.

Until that moment comes, however, the Bears (4-4, 2-3) will return to Waco for a homecoming matchup against UCF (4-3, 1-3) next Saturday, Nov. 1. The game time and network are yet to be determined.

18 Comments
Discussion from...

Baylor’s Breaking Point: Familiar Mistakes, Same Results, Plus a Coach Running Out of Time

7,228 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Bearknuckle
BUfan4ever
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Gee, I saw this movie repeatedly over the last 3 years, I'm really getting tired of it, unless you like reruns you should be tired of it too! Aranda is a nice man but results is what matters in life, nothing personal it's just business. And it's not like he'll be on the streets if he gets fired, he'll have a more comfortable retirement than 99 % of the fans!
Time for a change, not going to another game until change occurs.
Dia del DougO
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I hate it for the players that they might not (probably) have their bowl game. But a bunch of them would likely opt out for the portal anyway, and the extra practice time likely would not be beneficial in this case.

"The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool."
BUATX2000
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Like all things Baylor football we find ourselves way behind the curve when faced with making hard decisions. We were behind the facilities curve in the 90s, we were behind the NIL curve in the early part of this decade and we are behind the curve on the coaching carousel frenzy starting to take shape this season.
Bearknuckle
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This result of this game was entirely predictable, in fact most of us did. I thought a 24-42 Bears' loss was a very likely outcome, meh.

The die has been cast, the cookie has crumbled, etc etc etc. still wild to think that despite all the mistakes he made as a rookie HC, with different injury luck* this offseason we're probably somewhere between 8-0 and 6-2 right now and Dave coaches Baylor again.

Best of luck to Dave if/when he's axed. I'll support our next coach too, whenever that happens.


*Give us back D. Turner, Dawson Pendergrass, Carl Williams, Tra Barnes and P. Jackson and we're a different team. C'est la vie.
DAC
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Do the other teams get their injured players back in this make believe scenario as well, or are we playing them at full strength vs their current depleted rosters?
Old bear92
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Aranda tried hard until he got paid. As soon as the massive extension happened he put the thing on auto pilot. He has not a care in the world and it shows.
Aliceinbubbleland
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Old bear92 said:

Aranda tried hard until he got paid. As soon as the massive extension happened he put the thing on auto pilot. He has not a care in the world and it shows.

I think Mac's stutter is why we had the extension. He meant to say 1 year but it came out 10 years.

Anyone but the aggies please
Bearknuckle
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DAC said:

Do the other teams get their injured players back in this make believe scenario as well, or are we playing them at full strength vs their current depleted rosters?


Sure! Cincy would have had one (1) 3rd string LB back for last game. He was their only injury.

Dave's gonna get fired, me pointing out our outlier injury luck wont change that, lol.
IowaBear
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Dave's getting fired because he's incompetent at his job. Not because of injuries
Bearknuckle
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IowaBear said:

Dave's getting fired because he's incompetent at his job. Not because of injuries

I'd agree with you if you meant the PR side of things: fan engagement, booster engagement, media engagement. He's been flat out bad at those, and the W/L record is too weak to keep things going this way in the face of a total fan revolt.

But you think he's incompetent as an Xs/Os guy. Doesn't really matter which of us is closer to the truth, he's going to get fired anyway.
Quinton
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Bearknuckle said:

IowaBear said:

Dave's getting fired because he's incompetent at his job. Not because of injuries

I'd agree with you if you meant the PR side of things: fan engagement, booster engagement, media engagement. He's been flat out bad at those, and the W/L record is too weak to keep things going this way in the face of a total fan revolt.

But you think he's incompetent as an Xs/Os guy. Doesn't really matter which of us is closer to the truth, he's going to get fired anyway.

The problem is, he isn't a brilliant mind that can make up for the massive deficiencies. He isn't exceptionally smart like was originally pitched.

I still believe coaches that are truly smart without losing a ton in motivation and comuncation can have huge success. Huge comparitive advantage compared to your standard college coach.. and that's no disrespect just the reality.

Dave's issue is he isn't that smart while still being too deep in his own head. He's very slow to process things in real time. He can't effectively communicate what he's thinking to his players. He can't move emotion. For whatever reason, he can't teach at a high level anymore. I would love him as an analyst on staff. But beyond that.. nah.
dycbaylor02
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Quinton said:

Bearknuckle said:

IowaBear said:

Dave's getting fired because he's incompetent at his job. Not because of injuries

I'd agree with you if you meant the PR side of things: fan engagement, booster engagement, media engagement. He's been flat out bad at those, and the W/L record is too weak to keep things going this way in the face of a total fan revolt.

But you think he's incompetent as an Xs/Os guy. Doesn't really matter which of us is closer to the truth, he's going to get fired anyway.

The problem is, he isn't a brilliant mind that can make up for the massive deficiencies. He isn't exceptionally smart like was originally pitched.

I still believe coaches that are truly smart without losing a ton in motivation and comuncation can have huge success. Huge comparitive advantage compared to your standard college coach.. and that's no disrespect just the reality.

Dave's issue is he isn't that smart while still being too deep in his own head. He's very slow to process things in real time. He can't effectively communicate what he's thinking to his players. He can't move emotion. For whatever reason, he can't teach at a high level anymore. I would love him as an analyst on staff. But beyond that.. nah.

As a coach he has a serious fundamental issue trying to coach up kids to the next level at Baylor. It's obvious from his press conferences he's not able to break that plain with the players. He's an absentee landlord. He was able to catch up the elite players he had at LSU and Wisconsin I guess but not here. Dude is like a hs geometry teacher that no one cares about .
Bearknuckle
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Quinton said:

I still believe coaches that are truly smart without losing a ton in motivation and comuncation can have huge success. Huge comparitive advantage compared to your standard college coach.. and that's no disrespect just the reality

Hypothetically such a coach could certainly exist right now. If they're out there right now, I'm on aboard - BRING HIM IN!!

Which current coaches typify what you're talking about:
  • a similar level of support/resources (or less!) to Dave during this same NIL+Portal era
  • in a P4 league*
  • has outperformed Dave
Just like in late 2023, Dave has lost the fans enough that I completely understand firing him at this point. I will be as happy as anyone if we land someone who is a major functional upgrade regarding on-field results. When I see names like Jamey Chadwell thrown out there, I see only major disappointment for all of us in the future.



*Non-P4 coaches simply don't have to deal with the same level of NIL+Portal complexity that P4 coaches do...and even if you want to argue otherwise, you'd have to concede that pressure/stress levels at the P4 exceed what coaches face in lesser conferences. GJ Kinne may have terrible social media buzz right now, but he's not dealing with the same stress as Dave Aranda, flat out.
BUATX2000
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Bearknuckle said:

DAC said:

Do the other teams get their injured players back in this make believe scenario as well, or are we playing them at full strength vs their current depleted rosters?


Sure! Cincy would have had one (1) 3rd string LB back for last game. He was their only injury.

Dave's gonna get fired, me pointing out our outlier injury luck wont change that, lol.


This isn't "outlier" bad luck. These injuries are a direct result of bad strength and conditioning and zero contact practices. He runs a VERY soft program.
Bearknuckle
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BUATX2000 said:

Bearknuckle said:

DAC said:

Do the other teams get their injured players back in this make believe scenario as well, or are we playing them at full strength vs their current depleted rosters?


Sure! Cincy would have had one (1) 3rd string LB back for last game. He was their only injury.

Dave's gonna get fired, me pointing out our outlier injury luck wont change that, lol.


This isn't "outlier" bad luck. These injuries are a direct result of bad strength and conditioning and zero contact practices. He runs a VERY soft program.

If true that would make a lot of sense - the premise is internally consistent certainly - but it seems like the SE365 insiders and others would have been telegraphing that for years now. For example questioning whether Vic was the right fit or whether the overall approach needed adjustment. I don't recall seeing anything like that.

Further, I'd have to wonder how Viloria got FSU to natty-level if his methods were so ineffective. You're saying Dave directly overrides Vic, and Vic hasn't sought another job for the last four years?
BUATX2000
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Bearknuckle said:

BUATX2000 said:

Bearknuckle said:

DAC said:

Do the other teams get their injured players back in this make believe scenario as well, or are we playing them at full strength vs their current depleted rosters?


Sure! Cincy would have had one (1) 3rd string LB back for last game. He was their only injury.

Dave's gonna get fired, me pointing out our outlier injury luck wont change that, lol.


This isn't "outlier" bad luck. These injuries are a direct result of bad strength and conditioning and zero contact practices. He runs a VERY soft program.

If true that would make a lot of sense - the premise is internally consistent certainly - but it seems like the SE365 insiders and others would have been telegraphing that for years now. For example questioning whether Vic was the right fit or whether the overall approach needed adjustment. I don't recall seeing anything like that.

Further, I'd have to wonder how Viloria got FSU to natty-level if his methods were so ineffective. You're saying Dave directly overrides Vic, and Vic hasn't sought another job for the last four years?



Obviously I don't have inside info, but here is my suspicion.

At FSU (under Jimbo Fisher), Viloria operated in a very high-tempo, physical, NFL-style program. Jimbo emphasized contact, live reps, and competition at nearly every level.
At Baylor, Dave Aranda runs a much more cerebral, risk-averse program. He has publicly discussed minimizing contact and keeping practices controlled to prevent wear and tear.

Even if Viloria designs aggressive strength protocols, the practice culture under Aranda blunts their effect. Players aren't hardening under consistent, game-like stress.

FSU during his 2012-2017 stretch had elite 4- and 5-star athletes who were big, fast, and had naturally durable bodies. Baylor's recent rosters (since 2020) have leaned heavily on developmental 3-star prospects who require more physical build-up time.

When the baseline athleticism and durability are lower, even minor practice missteps or under conditioning show up as injuries on Saturdays or as non contact injuries during low intensity drills

When Viloria was at FSU, the program had one of the most advanced recovery setups in college football: hydrotherapy pools, cryogenic chambers, sleep tracking, GPS monitoring, etc.
Baylor's facilities are good but not elite by tier 1 program standards, and budget allocations to sports science and recovery have been relatively modest. I would suspect that's not something Aranda has prioritized.

Vic Viloria hasn't "forgotten how to train athletes."
It's that the surrounding system is totally different. There are different athletes, a soft head coach philosophy, reduced practice intensity, limited roster depth, and recovery ecosystem.

My earlier comment was not an indictment on the S&C coach as the culprit, but more the soft and timid culture Aranda has allowed to permeate the entire program.

Adriacus Peratuun
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BUATX2000 said:

Bearknuckle said:

BUATX2000 said:

Bearknuckle said:

DAC said:

Do the other teams get their injured players back in this make believe scenario as well, or are we playing them at full strength vs their current depleted rosters?


Sure! Cincy would have had one (1) 3rd string LB back for last game. He was their only injury.

Dave's gonna get fired, me pointing out our outlier injury luck wont change that, lol.


This isn't "outlier" bad luck. These injuries are a direct result of bad strength and conditioning and zero contact practices. He runs a VERY soft program.

If true that would make a lot of sense - the premise is internally consistent certainly - but it seems like the SE365 insiders and others would have been telegraphing that for years now. For example questioning whether Vic was the right fit or whether the overall approach needed adjustment. I don't recall seeing anything like that.

Further, I'd have to wonder how Viloria got FSU to natty-level if his methods were so ineffective. You're saying Dave directly overrides Vic, and Vic hasn't sought another job for the last four years?



Obviously I don't have inside info, but here is my suspicion.

At FSU (under Jimbo Fisher), Viloria operated in a very high-tempo, physical, NFL-style program. Jimbo emphasized contact, live reps, and competition at nearly every level.
At Baylor, Dave Aranda runs a much more cerebral, risk-averse program. He has publicly discussed minimizing contact and keeping practices controlled to prevent wear and tear.

Even if Viloria designs aggressive strength protocols, the practice culture under Aranda blunts their effect. Players aren't hardening under consistent, game-like stress.

FSU during his 2012-2017 stretch had elite 4- and 5-star athletes who were big, fast, and had naturally durable bodies. Baylor's recent rosters (since 2020) have leaned heavily on developmental 3-star prospects who require more physical build-up time.

When the baseline athleticism and durability are lower, even minor practice missteps or under conditioning show up as injuries on Saturdays or as non contact injuries during low intensity drills

When Viloria was at FSU, the program had one of the most advanced recovery setups in college football: hydrotherapy pools, cryogenic chambers, sleep tracking, GPS monitoring, etc.
Baylor's facilities are good but not elite by tier 1 program standards, and budget allocations to sports science and recovery have been relatively modest. I would suspect that's not something Aranda has prioritized.

Vic Viloria hasn't "forgotten how to train athletes."
It's that the surrounding system is totally different. There are different athletes, a soft head coach philosophy, reduced practice intensity, limited roster depth, and recovery ecosystem.

My earlier comment was not an indictment on the S&C coach as the culprit, but more the soft and timid culture Aranda has allowed to permeate the entire program.



Fisher elected not to take Viloria to ATM. Think he might have some useful insight?
Bearknuckle
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I respect this opinion and it makes internal sense. I don't know if it's "True"…but as I've said all thread, at the end of the day the results are what they are…and those aren't good.
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