Roundtable: Bright Spots, Postseason Hopes, Returners & More for Baylor Men's Basketball

SicEm365.com’s Ashley Hodge, Levi Caraway and Jack Mackenzie take a closer look at Scott Drew’s Bears and try to answer questions about the team.

*below is a rough transcript of the conversation*

Jack Mackenzie:  

Baylor Men’s Basketball sits at 2-7 through the first half of Big 12 play this season, with their only wins coming on the road at Oklahoma State and West Virginia. After their 0-3 start, we here at SicEm365.com and special guest expert Kendall Kaut tried to answer some questions about what was going wrong, what could be changed for the better, and how this team could make the NCAA tournament.

With NCAA at-large bid chances nearing death's door, I had a new slate of questions for Ashley Hodge, Levi Caraway and myself to answer. Sadly, Kendall Kaut was unable to join us for this one because he had better things to do than dwell on depressing topics… I guess, and I jest.

Either way, let’s dive into the questions! First up: Have you seen any improvements or adjustments that you like?

Ashley Hodge:  
Let me point to two things. Number one, I think the defense has improved. The last two games are great examples of that much better defense against Cincinnati, and I thought, probably their best defensive output of the year at West Virginia. Now, will that translate against the better offensive teams in the league? We're about to find out, as Baylor has quite a few tough games coming up, and of course, one of the best offenses is coming to town next week in BYU. They also have Louisville, so we'll see if this defensive improvement translates to some of these better opponents. Number two, I really like what they're doing with Tounde Yessoufou on the blocks. I think he's most effective in the low post. I like how they try to post him up against smaller guards two or three times a game. I think they should do that even more. I think that's some of the best offense we can have. Is to try to run offense through Tounde on the low blocks.

JM: Both good notes and things to look for moving forward. For Levi’s part, he has noticed a lineup change he likes.

Levi Caraway:  
I really have liked these last two games with Michael Rataj coming off the bench. With the depth that Baylor doesn't have, it's not like you can stash him and hide him. He's gonna have to play 15 to 20 minutes per game, but at least having him on the bench to start games gives Baylor the opportunity to start fast. I also really like the closing lineup against West Virginia. I really like the lineup of Isaac, Obi, Cam and Tounde. I don't think you can go with that down the stretch against really physical Big 12 teams. However, it opened things up against the Mountaineers and was able to give Baylor the dub in that game. Whether that's going to be the case, while they still have a lot more physical teams to play down the schedule, I don't know, but I like that quick change, and I think that's good for right now.

JM: Off of that note, a tweet was making the rounds recently about the Top 10 lineup combinations in Power 5 conference play based on overall NET efficiency.

When Baylor has trotted out Agbim, Carr, Yessoufou, Skillings and Powell, they have been not only the most efficient lineup by that metric but also the second-best in the Big 12 and the seventh-best in the nation. That lineup has only seen 68 possessions in 40 minutes of action spread across 7 games. At the very least, this backs up Levi’s point about benching Rataj.

Now back to Ashley’s point about the defense showing improvement. The Bears allowed just 0.898 points per possession to West Virginia, the lowest BU has allowed through nine conference games.

That comes on the heels of the previous best mark of 1.000 PPP allowed at Cincinnati. However, those two teams have two of the worst offenses in the Big 12. West Virginia is 130th in KenPom offensive efficiency, and Cincinnati is 219th. Looking at only conference play, they are the 14th and 16th-ranked offenses in the Big 12 per KenPom. I am not convinced of much improvement here, but they did pass my eye test in the game in Morgantown for shutting down an offense.

One thing I am convinced of, though, is that Obi Agbim needs more time off-ball. I think his offense has been jump-started by playing off of Isaac Williams, allowing him to run his defender around screens and into catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities. The Wyoming transfer has scored 14 or more points each of the last three games while registering KenPom offensive ratings over 105 - a number he topped just twice against all other P6 competition (and a third time if you’d like to count San Diego State). He also hasn’t turned the ball over since the TCU loss at home. So that is the improvement for Baylor that has caught my attention.

Time for the next question: What can still be done to make something of this season? Or, if you’d prefer: What is the path to the postseason if you think there is one?

AH:  
The path to the postseason, if you're talking the NCAA Tournament, doesn't look very bright. It's possible. You never give up hope. This team may just give us a shocking result down the stretch. Other Scott Drew teams have done this in the past. I don't think this talent level is going to warrant that type of turnaround. But what's the path? Losing only three more games. That Memphis loss remains a really bad loss. Losing to TCU on your home court is another bad loss. You're going to have to make up for those. You're going to have to beat a team like BYU. You're going to have to pull a shocker, like beating an Arizona at home, or beating a Houston or Iowa State on the road, which looks very unlikely. But those are the paths to getting to that key metric of only three more losses, which would put them at 8-10 in Big 12 play, assuming that those losses are in conference. Now, you know, if you are able to win the Louisville game, and you go 8-10 in conference, I think that might be good enough to be in consideration. They do have to put 68 teams in the field, and there are a lot of borderline 8-10 type of Big 12 teams that will be considered, but that's the path: only losing three more games.

LC: In my opinion, not splitting the TCU series and then losing the Cincy game was probably the nail in the coffin. Now you're going to kind of have to try to pull a rabbit out of the hat somewhere, but you never know. You beat Colorado, you split BYU and ISU, and then you upset Louisville in Fort Worth; who knows what could happen down the stretch? There's some winnable games there, but I still don't, I still don't really think the NCAA Tournament is probable.

JM: I think we have a consensus here about what is likely to happen: missing the NCAA tournament. I want to look for a second at a couple of graphics that have helped me visualize the Bears’ remaining schedule and their odds of making the NCAAs. These visualizations are from JThom Analytics, and the one on the left helps make clear the opportunities left for the Bears.

Home games in the right column, like Arizona State, Colorado and Utah, as well as the at Kansas State game over in the left column, are games that the Bears “should win” if you can say that about any game with this team. Those are the four games that KenPom has down for the Bears as wins to get them to 6-12 in conference play.

At UCF, in Fort Worth against Louisville, and the grudge match against BYU are games that Baylor isn’t asking for a miracle to win… or maybe I’m trying to convince myself of that, but for the sake of trying to find a path to the NCAA tournament, those are what I’m calling “get luckies”. Win those seven games, finish conference 8-10 and add a nice non-con win over an ACC team and you end up … let’s check out the graph on the right: squarely on the bubble.

That's right, this graphic on the right shows how Baylor’s resume could translate to NCAA hopes based on what wins they can stack up before the end of the year. Throw in a Big 12 tournament first-round win, and the Bears could end up on the right side of the bubble. If they win the seven games previously mentioned and get to the second round of the Big 12 tourney, and thats your recipe. Just like the recipe for winning the lottery is simply picking the right numbers. Infinitely easier said than done.

Enough of all that, let’s rapid-fire through these next few questions:

The College Basketball Crown, the NIT or the CBI, do you want Baylor in one of those if they can make it?

AH:  Without a question, you want the Crown. That's the new NIT. As far as attractive tournaments in postseason that you would want to go to, and more teams that are on your level, and teams with maybe not as much motivation as these mid-major teams that won their conference but slipped up in the conference tournament. So I think that the Crown is definitely what you want.

LC:   I don’t really have a strong opinion on this. I think the crown is probably the best of the three. I know Fox advertises them like crazy. So, I guess that's the best PR you're going to get. I don't really particularly want to see this team play some extra games, but if those guys want to get out there and play for one final time together, then so be it. Let them do that. I would be curious to know if the coaching staff would prefer to have those extra week or two to focus on the portal. If that would be the case, and I think that's a much more valuable use of the time, because you have to get it right this offseason.

JM: Yeah, they are right, the Crown is the answer. But where in the Big 12 standings will Baylor finish?

LC:   
I would still say the bottom half of the Big 12. There's gonna be some games coming up here against the cellar dwellers. But I mean, hey, there's not that much of a difference between Baylor and those teams this year, so they're probably still going to finish down. I don't know, 12, 13, 14, something like that.

AH: If I were a betting man, I would go with what KenPom says, and that's 6-12 in the Big 12, which means that they would only win four more games, certainly some winnable games out there, starting with Colorado, that may be a swing game between 7-11 and six and 6-12. Obviously, Arizona State at home is a team you would hope to beat. Utah at home is a team you would hope to beat, and then you're hoping to get one more win along the road, maybe at Kansas at Kansas State, or pulling off one of these upsets. So we talked about BYU at home, or Arizona at home, but you have to win your home games. We've not done a good job of that so far, and this is a golden opportunity to beat Colorado. This video may not be out by the time that game has taken place, but that's the game that you hope Baylor wins.

JM: 

Way to commit to a place there Ashley. It probably just hurts him to say a number like 13th out of 16. That’s where I think Baylor will up in the standings at least.

Back to looking for positives! Who has been your biggest bright spot or reason to keep watching?

Before the others say their’s, I want to highlight Isaac Williams. The former A&M Corpus Christi guard has been so much fun to watch, in my opinion, because of not only the potential he clearly has but how he has been steadily realizing it throughout the season. The knock on Williams coming into this year was his shooting, and while he hasn’t shot a high volume, he has picked good spots and is shooting almost 52% from three on 29 attempts so far this year. In fact, his effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage have gone up in Big 12 play. He’s just a sophomore and still struggles with plenty of things here and there, but the athleticism is evident and the hustle is great, so I keep watching to see each step in his journey that will hopefully bring two more full seasons in a Baylor uniform and a lot more wins, too.

Now for Levi’s bright spot.

LC: I think just watching Cam Carr is worth the admission there. I think he's going to be an incredible NBA player when he eventually makes that decision. He's such a fun player to watch, great athlete, insane hops, and so he's definitely, definitely worth it.

With Tounde, I think he's taking his lumps this year, but I think he's figuring it out as the season goes on, and he's a really enjoyable player to watch as well. It's too bad that those two don't have a better team around them, but those two guys are the reason I like to watch. And I think Isaac Williams and Caden Powell on a different team, on a better team, I think they'd be perfect role players. They're being asked to do a lot more than they should right now. But I like watching those two guys as well. They play hard.

AH:  I really just enjoy the journey. Even in a very frustrating season like this, there's going to be some bright spots. Obviously, on the road at West Virginia was an example of that; a game I did not expect them to win. Love watching Cam Carr and his development. Tounde and his development. I think Obi plays really hard. I'm excited to root for him and Isaac and Caden. I mean, they just pour every ounce of their energy into every game. Dan Skillings plays hard as well. And you know, those are some reasons to watch.

JM: Time to look ahead a little now. Who do you want to have back next season?

AH: Man, in a perfect world, Scott Drew is able to convince Cam Carr and  Tounde Yessoufou to come back. And then you take Isaac Williams, one of the guys who have played. That would be an amazing nucleus. And then you're looking at some injured guys like Bodo Bodo. I'm pretty sure you, you're only going to want two of the three bigs back, if James Nnaji, Bodo Bodo and Mayo Soyoye - you know, two of those three. And then you got Iguodala, you got Elijah Williams coming in. You're going to go out and get a really good point guard. That's going to be a must. You’ve got to go out and get some front-court help as well, and you're going to have to get a dynamic combo guard. But the basis would start with Cam, Tounde and Isaac. In a perfect world, if you could get those guys to return and all keep this nucleus together and achieve much better things next year than they did this year.

LC: Obviously, Cam Carr and Tounde Yessoufou, I would love to have those guys back. Not sure it's really expected with the NBA Draft, but the one player in the rotation that I'd love to have back is Isaac Williams. I think he gives a tremendous effort on both sides of the court. I think he's a junkyard dog, and he's going to keep getting better throughout his career if he sticks around. And then on the bench, there's a couple guys who have not seen the court this year, but are redshirting, and Juslin Bodo Bodo and Mayo Soyoye, both big men, and then Maikcol Perez, who was supposed to be one of the better players this year, but he tore his ACL leading up to the season opener. So I think those three guys I would love to have back, and I think it's important now to have those redshirt guys who've been in the program for a couple years, so only one current player who's been in the rotation, but then three guys who I think could be really high-impact guys on the bench right now.

JM: So largely, there are plenty of solid options in the frontcourt that are already in Waco. You’ll want most of those guys to stay if only to simplify the portal process and increase roster continuity, even though those guys haven’t really played this year. The backcourt is another story, and while you’d love to be able to essentially outbid the NBA possibilities for Cam and Tounde, you’re likely just wanting to make sure Isaac comes back so you can rotate him with a couple more guards from the portal. If I had to be specific, it’s Isaac, Mayo and whoever you like more regarding their health between Bodo Bodo and Nnaji, who I want to make sure we hold onto. I’m not familiar enough with Perez’s game to include him.

Time for the last question now: Is there anything you want to say about Baylor Men’s Basketball that you have not yet said in the video?

LC: So I was having this debate with my friends this week, would this roster with Jalen Celestine and Rob Wright instead of Dan Skillings and Michael Rataj make the NCAA tournament? And I don't know, I mean, I'm honestly inclined to say yes. I mean, that team would have been horrible on defense, but I think offensively, they would've been pretty good, and they would actually have been able to score against legit defenses. So, probably on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, in my opinion.

I think my biggest takeaway from this year has just been, I don't think these guys are as far off as we make it seem, but I think the massive swings and misses in the transfer portal have just completely hamstrung this roster, especially with Michael Rataj and then even Dan Skilling to a lesser extent. But had they gone out and gotten a true point guard, spending that money that they spent for those two guys and got a real point guard, I think that would have honestly opened up a lot more things for Cam Carr and Tounde Yessoufou and some of their other role players would have been a lot better with the true point guard as well. Obviously, the Rob Wright situation hamstrung those guys. I know Obi Agbim is a point of contention, but if he's not being asked to be the primary ball handler against Big 12 opponents, I think he's having a better year than he's having right now. He came with the intentions of playing next to Rob, although that defense would have been pretty bad, he would have been a lot better next to him.

And so I think also the injuries have played a huge role, and we've kind of downplayed that a bit. But JJ white, not that he would have been a game changer, but he would have been serviceable. He could have been your eighth or ninth guy off the bench, and given you 10 decent minutes a game, obviously, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Maikcol Perez, Mayo Soyoye, all redshirting this year, those guys could have played a big factor. I know the coaching staff was really high on Perez, so all those things combined have just led to this, to this rough year. But I don't think things are as bad as we make them out to be, and things are never as good as we make them out to be. But big summer ahead, obviously, the coaching staff is gonna have to hit on some guys, because this roster falls at Scott Drew’s feet.

JM:   

I agree with Levi, but personally, I also want to address one-and-dones. Plenty of people on SicEm365.com have debated the virtues and vices of relying on freshmen that won’t stick around in college, so I want to offer my two cents: When you can bring in the quality of one-and-done that Scott Drew can, they are not the problem. That freshman like Keyonte, Ja’Kobe, VJ, or Tounde is a piece meant to elevate a good team to greatness. A contender to a champion. When that freshman winds up on a team that isn’t close to contending, then their deficiencies (which all freshmen have) will be exposed. 

I don’t think I’m saying anything that hasn’t been said before — and I’ll add that having more than a single one-and-done definitely does not seem like the best way to win championships — but Scott is not wasting time or resources by going after and landing top recruits. The construction of the rest of the roster has deteriorated to the point that things could be better without a one-and-done on the roster. The ceiling just would not be as high, and the program would suffer in perception because not only are the wins not there, but great recruits aren’t going there either. I trust Scott to get things worked out personally, but I can’t deny how far from the Big 12 championships of 21 and 22 things feel currently.

So now Ashley can take that setup and run with it to close us out.

AH: I do think that next year is a really important year for Baylor basketball. It's no secret that Scott Drew was a little bit behind on NIL this year and not playing with the same type of war chest that many teams in the Big 12 were receiving.

Next year, I think that's going to be a different story. I think the commitment is going to be there. I think he's going to have the money to go out and get the type of roster that he really wants. And it's going to be a crucial year for his legacy. It might be, you know, one more bite at the apple for him.

And you know, this is going to be one of those situations where, if he does a better job constructing a roster that can win at a high level, compete for a conference championship, make another run at a national championship before he retires. That next year may be the year, and maybe it starts with trying to convince Cam Carr and Tounde, “Hey, we're going to pay you really well to return.” We're going to go out and get a really top-notch point guard. We're going to pay a lot of these other guys that we want back. Isaac Williams certainly would be a key part of this. And we're going to really make a run at winning a conference championship and then a national championship.

And I think that donor fatigue could happen if it doesn't work, so it's definitely, kind of your last chance to really make something big happen and submit your legacy as a great coach, which he is, and a Hall of Fame coach, so I'm rooting for that, and hope that that's the outcome.

JM:   Thanks, everyone, for watching! We will be back one or maybe two more times this season with more roundtables on Baylor Men’s Basketball, but for now, I’m Jack Mackenzie and this is SicEm365.com.