S11: What's Baylor facing in OSU's offense?

Oklahoma State comes into Waco with a 2-1 record with a close victory over Pittsburgh of the ACC and a controversial close loss to Central Michigan.  Head Coach Mike Gundy's team was the best closer in the Big 12 last year and every single one of their six games that were within one score in the fourth quarter ended up as victories.  Gundy's coaching took a team that easily should have gone 7-5 based on close games and went 10-2.  He has raised the cowboy program to the highest levels in their history and maintained it.

OFFENSE

Oklahoma State and Offensive Coordinator Mike Yurchich run a variation of the Air Raid offense similar from an X's and O's standpoint to the passing game we saw from Northwestern State with the obvious caveat that OSU is immeasurably more talented.  I broke down a few passing concepts in our NSU preview.

Oklahoma State will make extensive use of blocking backs as both blockers and receivers.  The Cowboy run game uses a lot of outside zone plays and draw plays.  They aren't as downhill of a running team as other teams that we see running this scheme like West Virginia or TCU.

STATISTICS

The Cowboys average a very strong 38.55 yards per drive against their two FBS opponents and have 77.55% of the available points they could have in the red zone.  Cowboy running backs average 4.92 per carry but outside of one 67 yard carry average 3.24 per carry.

You can find more statistics on the Pokes at my Stats Preview.

PERSONNEL

#2 Mason Rudolph (6-5, 235, Jr.) is their quarterback and is arguably the best downfield passing threat in the Big 12.  He's got a rifle arm, decent mobility, and has run a variation of an Air Raid even going back to his high school days.  He threw for 3,770 yards and 21 touchdowns last season.  He is the backbone of this offense and he is one of the best opposing players the Bears will face all year.  His backup is #14 Taylor Cornelius (6-6, 218, So.) but I have not seen him personally.

At tailback the Cowboys have several capable options.  #23 Rennie Childs (5-10, 208, Sr.) has been a key figure in their rotation ever since 2013.  He's a well rounded back who has enough speed and quickness to make big plays.  #27 Justice Hill (5-10, 171, Fr.) is a very speedy and explosive backup.  Stanford transfer #26 Barry J. Sanders (5-10, 198, Sr.) is the son of NFL Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders and is a solid performer.  OSU may be without the services of former prized Junior College recruit #32 Chris Carson (6-1, 215, Sr.) who is the more physical back of the group but also has big play potential.

OSU's blocking back position is called the "cowboy back" and they return first team All-Big 12 Tight End selection #47 Blake Jarwin (6-5, 248, Sr.) at the position.  He's an athletic player who is capable as a receiver or as a mobile blocker.  His backup is #86 Zac Veatch (6-3, 265, Sr.) who is a former offensive lineman.

The biggest weapon in the Cowboy's arsenal is unquestionably the deep threat #28 James Washington (6-1, 205, Jr.) who is one of the very best receivers in the conference.  He's likely to be first team All-Big 12 and destroyed Pittsburgh's single coverages to the tune of 296 yards.  He starts at the Z position and is typically the wideout to the right sideline.

The wideout on the opposite sideline was #3 Marcell Ateman (6-4, 215, Sr.) last season but OSU's best possession target has been out of the lineup recently.  In his place the Cowboys have turned to #81 Jhajuan Seales (6-1, 205, Sr.) and #15 Chris Lacy (6-3, 205, Jr.) at that X receiver spot.  Both have game breaking ability.  Seales set up the game winning score last week with a double move up the left sideline.  Lacy is experienced as a return man which implies a fair amount of open field running ability.

Their primary slot receiver is the speedy but undersized #1 Jalen McCleskey (5-10, 170, So.) who scored a touchdown on a "Bash" concept against Chance Waz last season.  Other receivers that the Cowboys will likely rotate include #17 Austin Hays (6-2, 195, Sr.) who has a lot of experience and #80 Dillon Stoner (5-11, 176, Fr.) who doubles as an occasional goal line "wildcat" quarterback.

The skill positions are as dangerous as anyone in the league.  The line is in the bottom half of the league which is shocking for a group that returns five starters.  Oklahoma State's best two linemen are at tackle.  Left tackle #77 Victor Salako (6-6, 335, Sr.) was a starter at UAB before transferring to OSU and right tackle #60 Zachary Crabtree (6-7, 310, Jr.) has a ton of experience and is generally reliable.   The interior spots are where OSU noticeably has struggled.  Center #71 Brad Lundblade (6-3, 300, Jr.) is a hard working former walk-on but is somewhat limited athletically.  At left guard #75 Marcus Keyes (6-3, 300, RSFr.) has come off of a redshirt year to beat out #64 Jesse Robinson (6-5, 315, Jr.) who started seven games last season.  At right guard the Cowboys added JC transfer #56 Larry Williams (6-4, 318, Jr.) as a new starter.

QUESTIONS

Oklahoma State's running game hasn't put up big numbers.  Is it poor execution or are the Cowboys simply not sticking with it?

The Cowboys might potentially be getting away from it too early in a particular game but I do think it's more on the execution of the offensive line.  In the video below you can see them repeatedly struggle to block defensive looks that may not be perfect but are favorable to run against numerically.  Whether it's being beaten by a lineman, not having success peeling off to second level defenders, or other simple issues it seems to follow this group around.



But didn't they rip off a 67 yarder against Pitt?

That play was a notable exception but should have been handled by two different Panther defenders.  Now OSU's left tackle, Wide Receiver, and tailback did a good job on this zone play and I am not taking anything away from them but the Weakside linebacker and defensive end both took the gap inside the tackle.  So what is easily a 2 on 1 if they do their jobs right turned into a 1 on 1 that the tailback beat the cornerback on.  This is the kind of play I expect both BU and OSU defenses to make regularly.



How have they done in pass protection?

The Cowboys did better against Pitt but as you can see below really struggled against Central Michigan.  Even on some positive plays the line was beaten and Rudolph had to bail them out.



Oklahoma State had wildly different offensive results in each half vs Pitt.  What happened?

In the first half Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was giving them plenty of tight coverage in their match quarters base defense.  The problem is that Pitt's secondary was completely outmatched by James Washington such as plays like the link below were commonplace.  OSU completed 66% of their throws with over 12 yards per attempt.  This coupled with the long outside run to Childs led to 61 yards per drive.

James Washington torches Pittsburgh

In the second half Pat Narduzzi changed his tactics.  He gave a lot more cushion on any of their quarters looks and brought a lot of his Fire Zone blitzes.  Below you see what I mean with the Fire Zones.  He'd change up which two extra defenders came but he would always have three conservative deep defenders and two underneath zone defenders.  This allowed Pitt to force Rudolph to make quick and difficult throws under pressure.  OSU still made some plays but the Pokes averaged 25 yards per drive in the second half against the new tactics and completed an erratic 37.5%.



How did Baylor defend them last year?

Baylor held OSU to 29 yards per drive and primarily played match quarters like Pitt did.  Needless to say Xavien Howard and Ryan Reid held up much better than Pitt.  I don't think that repeating that coverage would be the best idea.  I think Baylor could do a lot for itself by bringing a lot of aggressive looks up front with slightly more conservative coverages than usual.