After Baylor's 2017 season I told myself I was out of the prediction-making business. Not only did I predict the Bears would make a bowl game, I was convinced they would do with while allowing some cushion. Without getting into the gory details, we all know that wasn't right.
But here I am once again, putting my reputation on the line for some clicks and for you to make fun of me or agree with me.
2018 BAYLOR FOOTBALL SCHEDULE
Disclaimer: Don't take these predictions to Vegas.
Saturday, Sept. 1 vs. Abilene Christian
Liberty was bad enough, but if the Bears slip to an ACU team that finished 2-9 in 2017 after a second offseason and spring under Matt Rhule, finding an interim coach might not be a bad idea. The Wildcats were competitive in conference, but non-conference games against New Mexico and Colorado State resulted in 24 and 28-point losses.
Outcome: Baylor 41, ACU 10 (1-0)
Saturday, Sept. 8 at UTSA
The Roadrunners will come off a trip to Arizona State to open the season and return to San Antonio for their first home game of the season to face Baylor. I don't like to classify this game as a revenge game because the Bears had no business losing last fall, but UTSA's defense was more physical and stoned Anu Solomon and Baylor's offense from start to finish. However, the QB situations for both teams look much different and the Roadrunners lost their best player in defensive lineman Marcus Davenport, a first-round prospect for the 2018 NFL Draft.
Outcome: Baylor 31, UTSA 13 (2-0)
Saturday, Sept. 15 vs. Duke
Say what you want about the game in 2017, but it really boiled down to Baylor's defense giving up three touchdown runs of 30-plus yards (50, 34, 65) on missed tackles and four turnovers including a pick-6 on a drive that would have put the Bears up 27-24 in the middle of the fourth quarter. Duke returns a good chunk of their offense and defense from a 7-win team last fall, but the game being at home (and assumed improvement in the turnover and tackling category) should be enough for Baylor to push through.
Outcome: Baylor 24, Duke 20 (3-0)
Saturday, Sept. 22 vs. Kansas
Can Homecoming be moved to this early in the season? Baylor fans were sweating going to Lawerence last fall as the Bears hadn't won a game, but left feeling much better about their team afterwards. At some point Kansas is going to field a team that pushes Baylor to the brink like they did in 2011, I just don't see it being in 2018.
Outcome: Baylor 40, Kansas 10 (4-0)
Saturday, Sept. 29 at Oklahoma
I'm willing to admit that Kyler Murry scares me tremendously. I know he had his issues at Texas A&M and isn't the biggest guy in the room, but his wheels in that offense make me think Lincoln Riley has some wrinkles that we haven't seen just yet. Baylor nearly took Oklahoma to overtime last fall, but I don't see it being that close in Norman even though I expect the Bears to put up some points once again.
Outcome: Oklahoma 45, Baylor 28 (4-1)
Saturday, Oct. 6 vs. Kansas State
Similar to Baylor's contest against Duke in 2017, the Bears did too much to hurt themselves to expect a victory in Manhattan last fall (two bad snaps giving KSU scoring drives of 11 and 14 yards in the fourth quarter). KSU will likely showcase junior QB Alex Delton, a true run-first QB who played limited time against Baylor in 2017. The Bears won't put up many points against the Wildcats, so the key will be if Phil Snow's scheme can get off the field on third down.
Outcome: Baylor 24, KSU 17 (5-1)
Saturday, Oct. 13 at Texas
Texas loses a ton from a defense that allowed Baylor to a season-low 7 points in 2017, but Todd Orlando's defense will always be stout. Baylor's best bet to upset the Longhorns in Austin is to win with their defense against a Texas offense that was stagnant at best for most of last fall. Baylor has a shot at an upset win away from home this fall, but this isn't it.
Outcome: Texas 21, Baylor 10 (5-2)
Thursday, Oct. 25 at West Virginia
Ah, yes, the team responsible for Charlie Brewer's breakout performance. Unfortunately for Baylor, WVU returns nearly every critical skill piece to their offense that could be the best in the conference next fall. This isn't Baylor's chance to get an upset win on the road either.
Outcome: West Virginia 41, Baylor 28 (5-3)
Saturday, Nov. 3 vs. Oklahoma State
The one game in 2018 that pride could be restored. The Bears were curb stomped by the Cowboys in Stillwater last season, and though this contest falls late in the season, you can bet Matt Rhule will have his team ready to compete on the field after that embarrassment. Oklahoma State's QB situation was addressed by adding Hawaii grad transfer Dru Brown, but how he translates to the P5 level will be seen before he ever arrives in Waco. Close, but no cigar.
Outcome: Oklahoma State 35, Baylor 31 (5-4)
Saturday, Nov. 18 at Iowa State
Baylor had their chance to get a good victory over the Cyclones late in the season in 2017, but it didn't happen despite grabbing an early lead. The Bears will be a different team, as will the Cyclones who lose multiple significant playmakers, but winning in Ames is not easy. This game will be very easy to revisit and change a prediction as the season wears on, but I don't see the Bears finding a way right now.
Outcome: Iowa State 27, Baylor 20 (5-5)
Saturday, Nov. 17 vs. TCU
TCU's 2017 squad was full of old men who carried the team to the Big 12 Championship game. In 2018, all of those old men are gone. Baylor is going to pull an upset (at least one that is viewed as an upset at this time) at some point during the 2018 season and this is my pick. The Horned Frogs will grow up a lot behind Shawn Robinson through the first 9-10 games of the season, but the Bears will be on a similar growth pattern.
Outcome: Baylor 34, TCU 27 (6-5)
Saturday, Nov. 24 vs. Texas Tech (AT&T Stadium)
Momentum is a real thing and a close game with OSU and a victory over TCU at home gets Baylor fans to Arlington for the season finale. Kliff Kingsbury was coaching for his job in Arlington last fall and I expect him to be in a similar boat at this point this year as the Red Raiders will look for a reliable QB and lean on an experienced defense to get the job done. A handful of youthful, unforced mistakes cost the Bears last fall, I don't expect that to happen again.
Outcome: Baylor 41, Texas Tech 34 (7-5)
