How a win over Kansas shapes Baylor's final eight games of 2018

After a 26-7 win against the Kansas Jayhawks at McLane Stadium on Saturday afternoon, Baylor has moved to 3-1 and are currently 1-0 in Big 12 play. The Bears now have three times as many wins as they did last year through just four games.

Jim Black

Freshman Tyquan Thornton caught his second touchdown of the season Saturday.

A third of the way through the season, Baylor fans have a general understanding of what to expect from this team going forward. It’s difficult to dive too deep into the statistics against a team like Kansas, since most teams in the Big 12 fill the stat sheet against Kansas.

Consequently, the stats that matter this week have to do with Baylor’s projections for the rest of the season after winning the game against Kansas.

The stats we’re going to take a look at involve Baylor’s Football Power Index (FPI). This statisticfrom ESPN measures a team’s strength and is said to be one of the best predictors of a team’s performance going forward. The results use over 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

For some perspective, Alabama has an FPI of 31.4, Oklahoma a 20.0, TCU a 9.6, and Kansas State a -2.2.

Before the Kansas win, Baylor was ranked 51st in FPI, with a 3.2. Following their win, the Bears moved up just one spot, increasing their FPI to 4.2.

Baylor was only favored by 7.5 points before the game started, which shows just how unpredictable this Bears team can be. The Bears showed they can win games they’re supposed to win. Which, as we know, was a big issue last season with their losses to both UTSA and Liberty.

The real question is: how will Baylor fare against teams they are predicted to lose to?

Based on the FPI simulations for the rest of the season, Baylor is projected at 5.6 wins and 6.4 losses. Their chances of winning the Big 12 are at 0.2 percent, which ranks No. 8 in the conference. So, given the way the Bears have played this season against their opponents, they have showed some positive signs, but they face an incredibly challenging schedule for the rest of the season.

Jim Black

Sophomore BJ Thompson notched his first career sack against the Jayhawks.

In fact, Baylor’s remaining strength of schedule ranks No. 1 in the entire country. It’s not going to be an easy road, so the Bears are going to have to improve upon their performance drastically if they want to compete against the loaded Big 12. The team simply cannot beat themselves up with penalties and explosive plays like they have these first four games. Their tough opponents ahead of them will take advantage of those mistakes.

If the Bears can somehow find a way to make it a competitive game in Norman against Oklahoma next week, we would see Baylor’s FPI rise dramatically. According to the FPI, Baylor has a 9.5-percent chance of winning the game. It will be a big test for this team, as they almost have nothing to lose in the game.

The Bears played one of their best games of the season last year against Oklahoma, but ultimately fell short 49-41. It’ll be very interesting to see if they can come out swinging andsurprise the Sooners once again.