Film Room: How will Boise defend Baylor?
Boise State's defense is a very solid unit that has faced some solid competition from offenses at Washington State, New Mexico, and Colorado State. Their coordinator is Andy Avalos, a former standout linebacker for Boise State in the early 2000's. He is in his first season as the defensive coordinator after Marcel Yates moved to Rich Rodriguez's staff at Arizona in the offseason.
Statistics
Statistically the Broncos allow an average of 30.8 yards per drive and allows 69% of the possible points available in the red zone. Overall that is 97% of the yards per drive their opponents average and 92% of the red zone points. Below is a game by game breakdown on yards per drive much like I gave in the offensive preview.
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The defense isn't as reliably strong as the offense per drive. Now some games like BYU and Oregon State stand out as instances where Boise's defense dramatically stepped up. Other games like Wyoming and San Jose State stand out as very poor by comparison. Overall this strikes me as very similar to Baylor's defensive year. Some games like West Virginia and Oklahoma State were really strong with a couple clunkers compared to expectations like TCU and Iowa State. Generally though both teams loosely matched with expectations for most of the season.
| Statistic | Boise vs | Opponent Avg |
| Pass% | 59.4% | 57.5% |
| Yds/Carry | 5.14 | 5.50 |
| Yds/Pass Play | 5.21 | 6.26 |
| Turnovers | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| yds/play | 5.10 | 5.82 |
| Sack % | 6.29% | 6.40% |
| Int % | 1.38% | 3.04% |
| 3rd Down % | 48.3% | 41.75% |
| RZ % | 69.11% | 75.04% |
Scheme
This defense is very similar to Baylor's defense in the front seven. It's a one-gap system with relatively undersized players in the B gap much like what Baylor has featured this year. The Broncos run a hybrid front that will alternate between a three man front and four man front without substitutions by shifting their alignment. The "STUD" position on their defense is the classic edge linebacker that can line up as a defensive end when needed. It's extremely similar to Clay Johnston's position in Baylor's defense. Below you see a real time shift from one front to another.
On the back end this team likes to base out of a three deep zone but will usually give a two-high presnap look like you see below.
The Broncos will mix in other zones like Cover 2, Tampa 2, and Cover 4 but three deep zone was the most common look that I saw. This team has the personnel to run man to man and will occasionally do it, but it's not their usual tendency.
Standout Personnel
They aren't the biggest players up Baylor will have faced up front but #94 Sam McCaskill (6-3, 256 SR) and #55 David Moa (6-3, 268 SO) are All-Mountain West players who made first team honors. Both are quick guys who give maximum effort.
At Will linebacker their leading tackler is 2nd team All-MWC honoree #51 Ben Weaver (6-0, 220 SR) who is a linebacker that isn't very big but simply makes plays. He is very experienced with 42 starts and moves well for his position.
#3 Chanceller James (6-2, 212 SR) is their best safety. He's a 2nd team All-MWC player who has two interceptions this season and is the 2nd leading tackler on the team.
Special Teams
In the return game Boise State is pretty mediocre despite having game breakers like McNichols and Wilson returning the ball for them. 66th in average kickoff return yardage, 80th in average punt return yardage, and both figures are less than their opponents average giving up. That points to their blocking not being sharp enough to consistently provide opportunities. Their coverage units both rank 80th or worse and give up more per return than their opponents average. They force a lot of touchbacks on kickoffs with 53% which ranks 29th nationally. In net punting they rank 17th.
Boise is very good at blocking kicks and ranks 21st in the country. Kicker #49 Tyler Rausa (5-9, 192 SR) has had an up and down year converting 63.6% of his field goals and his long is only 38 with all but one miss inside of 40 yards.
Final Questions
While some opponents are pretty good defensively, many are not. How much should we read into the statistics they put up compared to what their opponents typically allow as their opponents could be padding stats against the weaker G5 teams they played?
Boise's defense doesn't hold up under this microscope nearly as well as their offense does. It's still a solid unit but it's not quite the challenge that Harsin's offense gives you. To that end I have once again only taken the numbers from games against the top 80 yards per drive teams that Boise's opponents faced according to what AdjustedStats.com had listed after the regular season ended. This stricter look shows solid outcomes against Hawaii, UNLV, Air Force, and Utah State allowed more than what would be expected when the weaker opponents don't skew the expectations.
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The games against BYU and Oregon State stand out as the best outings. The San Jose State game is once again the worst compared to expectations.
What teams has Boise faced that attack like Baylor does?
I haven't seen any direct comparisons. Washington State is much more of a pass-first team with a defined intermediate passing game which is a bit different than Baylor's tactic of spreading you far to either bomb you or batter you with the run. New Mexico has a spread option that is pretty one-dimensional due to personnel. Hawaii didn't spread them out nearly as much either. I don't think there is a good 1:1 example this year.
What teams has Baylor faced that run defensive schemes like Boise State?
I would say that Texas and Oklahoma were the closest. Each uses a heavy amount of cover three schemes and uses a similar player to Boise's "STUD" position to alternate what fronts they use. Texas Tech would have been a great example but Tech ditched most of what they did during the year to sell out against the run. West Virginia might have some similarity up front but the structure on the back end of their defense is a bit more unconventional than the Broncos.
Given Baylor's current roster without Linwood, Russell, and Lynch- how would you attack Boise State?
Everything depends on if Zach Smith is healthy obviously but I think Baylor is probably going to benefit by spreading Boise out as wide as it can. When Baylor had all of it's receivers outside the numbers against WVU, the Bears were able to take advantage of a very good defense for significant stretches of that game in Morgantown.
Why do I think this works well with Zach? is that he not only has a very strong arm with solid accuracy, but my personal opinion is you need to simplify things for him as he's relatively new to the college game and he will be going up against a defense with nearly a month to prepare confusing looks for him. Make it easy to read whether they are giving favorable odds on the run, a single covered receiver, or a short constraint route that might as well be a run.
By spreading them out you make them tip their hand and it makes it a quick read and quick execution. It allows him to play fast and leverage his talents. Also I think Boise has a solid secondary but I don't think that the individual parts can hold up consistently against Baylor's receivers in isolation.
Now I am not advocating that Baylor simply play multiple receivers. One of the biggest plays of the Oklahoma State game was a play with two tight ends, but Baylor still had the receivers outside each set of numbers- forcing the defense to either be outnumbered inside or to face one on one outside. The clip I am specifically referencing is 16 seconds into the clip below.
Baylor has the talent to run on Boise and the talent to break single coverage from them. They can't spend the evening indecisive or outnumbered. I think widening out and making the Bronco's face something they have not faced that Baylor's young QB would be comfortable in is a good option for at least part of the gameplan. Give him easy reads and the freedom to use RPO's to put Boise in conflict. It lets Baylor's talented offensive weapons and blockers have a shot to exert their influence on the game.
If Smith is still banged up the Bears may need to run some WildBear and have some decent constraint plays for it. Boise is very well coached and won't let Chizik's Russell Athletic Bowl nightmare happen without some pretty significant adjustments being made throughout the game.
Prediction?
If both teams were at full strength and had a fully committed coaching staff I would predict Baylor by a significant margin. As it is, that hasn't been the case since the West Virginia game in 2015. In this game the offenses will be better than the defenses and the one that executes best and protects the ball will almost surely win. That will probably be Boise State. Bears once again give a good team a very tough fight like they did in Morgantown but fade late.
Baylor 27
Boise State 37
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