Previewing the individual match-ups in the Baylor vs Houston game. Who has the advantage? Will Baylor be able to exploit their advantages? Using Evan Miyakawa’s data analytics (the higher the better) for offensive and defensive ratings.
Point Guards
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | APG | SPG | FG% | 3pt% | FT% |
| Davion Mitchell | 6-2 205 | 56.9 | 35.8 | 14.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 52 | 45 | 63 |
| DeJon Jarreau | 6-5 195 | 29.5 | 48.2 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 44 | 35 | 71 |
Jarreau is a terrific senior guard who reminds me of Jalen Tate from Arkansas. He grabs a lot rebounds, and will bite (ejected for biting Cincinnati player), scratch or claw to win games. He took an elbow to the hip earlier in the tournament that left him with a nasty hip pointer but he’s played effectively with that injury. Mitchell has to avoid early foul trouble but he was virtually unstoppable off the bounce againt Arkansas, a team with a top 10 efficiency defense. Mitchell was the South region MVP. Jarreau was the Midwest MVP. Big time match-up, but Davion has another gear.
Advantage: Davion Mitchell
Shooting Guards
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | APG | SPG | FG% | 3pt% | FT% |
| Jared Butler | 6-3 195 | 55.5 | 47.3 | 16.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 47 | 40 | 76 |
| Marcus Sasser | 6-1 190 | 42.7 | 23.3 | 13.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 38 | 33 | 88 |
Sasser shoots free throws better than Butler. He’s a sophomore, Butler is a junior. Butler is a first team All-American. Sasser has had a terrific year, his shooting is streaky. He’s the nephew of Jason Sasser, the last player of the year in the Southwest Conference (1996) for Texas Tech. He doesn’t turn the ball over. Butler had a good game against Arkansas (particularly in the first half) but he’s still due a breakout game.
Advantage: Jared Butler
Small Forwards
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | 3pt% | FT% |
| MaCio Teague | 6-4 195 | 61.5 | 25.6 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 48 | 40 | 86 |
| Quentin Grimes | 6-5 205 | 43.3 | 28.4 | 18.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 41 | 41 | 78 |
Quentin Grimes was the co-conference player of the year in the American Conference. He’s improved a ton since the days at Kansas. He rebounds extremely well and has become a solid defender. Teague has been so consistent throughout the year. He played an outstanding game against Arkansas to get the Bears to the Final 4. His toughness and perseverance is underrated.
Advantage: Draw
Power Forwards
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | RPG | BPG | SPG | FG% | FT% |
| Mark Vital | 6-5 250 | 32.9 | 30.5 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 48 | 50 |
| Justin Gorham | 6-7 225 | 52.8 | 23.1 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 50 | 68 |
Beast vs Beast. Mark plays 24 minutes a game. Gorham logs 28 minutes. Gorham is one of the best rebounders in college basketball and will be a major focus for the Bears to try and keep off the glass. All of the advanced stats favor Gorham. He’s also capable of making 3s (35%), he’s only made 17 on the year. But Vital’s versatility on defense is hard to quantify.
Advantage: Draw
Centers
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | RPG | BPG | SPG | FG% | FT% |
| Flo Thamba | 6-10 245 | 32.7 | 36.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 58 | 61 |
| Reggie Chaney | 6-8 225 | 41.2 | 16.6 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 65 | 72 |
Both guys play about 15 minutes a game and do a really good job playing their role. Sometimes the difference between winning and losing come from role players like Thamba and Chaney. Thamba has been getting better offensively throughout the year but he needs to be a beast on the glass for the Bears Saturday.
Advantage: Draw
Guard Off Bench
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | APG | SPG | FG% | 3pt% | FT% |
| Adam Flagler | 6-3 180 | 35.7 | -7.5 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 45 | 42 | 86 |
| Tramon Mark | 6-5 180 | 40.6 | 25.2 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 38 | 26 | 77 |
If you look at Evan Miyakawa’s stats, you would think Mark has a big advantage. But his offensive efficiency against A rated teams is 84 and Flagler is 119. Flagler has been terrific in this tourney and it has been much needed. That negative defensive rating is still one of life’s great mysteries. A couple of long range bombs by Flagler and having him nail free throws in crunch time may be the recipe to get the Bears to the final game.
Advantage: Adam Flagler
Wing Off Bench
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | RPG | SPG | FG% | 3pt% | FT% |
| Matt Mayer | 6-9 225 | 56.7 | 30.5 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 49 | 40 | 59 |
| Fabian White | 6-8 225 | 42.3 | 21.3 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 54 | 40 | 67 |
White is a tough player off the bench who rebounds well and blocks shots (1 per game). He’s 2-5 from 3 on the year so I wouldn’t expect him to launch three pointers like Mayer. Mayer’s versatility is key and he has one of the best steals per minute percentages in college basketball. He’s been rebounding well and playing good defense in this tourney. If he has a big offensive game, look out Zags.
Advantage: Matthew Mayer
Big Off Bench
| Name | Ht Wt | Off Rat | Def Rat | PPG | RPG | BPG | SPG | FG% | 3pt% |
| Jon Tchamwa | 6-8 245 | 42.9 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 57 | 76 |
| Brison Gresham | 6-8 230 | 16.8 | 52.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 56 | 44 |
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua had a strong game against the Hogs. He was extremely active on the glass (6 rebounds) and converted around the rim at the foul line (8 points). Gresham blocks a lot of shots per minute. Baylor’s bigs must be active and strong with the ball. Houston will send you to the foul line a lot.
Advantage: Draw
Final Prediction
Two outstanding teams that are led by veteran tough minded players. The Cougars have overachieved given the loss of Caleb Mills who was the AAC preseason player of the year (he transferred to Florida State mid season). They are 1-0 against top 30 KenPom teams (win over Texas Tech). The Bears are 8-1 in top 30 games. I think that experience against high level teams pays off in this one.
Baylor 67 Houston 58
