ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the
New York Giants and
Dallas Cowboys. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Matchup: New York Giants at Dallas CowboysSpread: Dallas -4Total: 48PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent on New YorkPhil SteeleThe Giants have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and
Eli Manning has a dynamic receiving corps to throw to. Last year, the Giants held Dallas to 13 points per game, while the Cowboys averaged 28.4 points per game in their other 15 games. Picking the straight winner, I am about 50-50. The fact the Giants are getting more than a field goal makes this a play.
ATS Pick: New York
Erin RynningThe Giants' proficiency to score remains questionable for this Sunday night tilt with the status of
Odell Beckham Jr. up in the air, while their offensive line brings its own questions into the opener. Obviously, there's little concern about the Cowboys' juggernaut offensive line after its stellar 2016. However, it will face perhaps its toughest test of the season against the sturdy Giants defensive line. The Cowboys averaged 26.3 PPG last season, but the Giants held them to 26 points combined in their two meetings.
Pick: Lean Under
Warren SharpLast year, Dak Prescott struggled immensely against top pass defenses. And the Giants certainly bring that to the table.
Dez Bryant's inefficiency last year against the Giants and DB Janoris Jenkins resulted in 2 catches for 18 yards on 14 targets. With a weaker offensive line for the Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott dealing with plenty of distractions, I think it will be tough for the Cowboys to grind out a potential late lead, which could mean ample chances for the Giants to get back in this one even if down early. If Beckham were definitely playing, I would turn this lean into a play.
Lean: Giants
Prop bets
80.5 receiving yards by Dez Bryant (O/U -110)In two games last year against the Giants,
Dak Prescott completed as many passes to Giants defenders as he did to Bryant when targeting his stud wideout. That's not a typo -- Prescott was 2-for-14 for 18 yards and two interceptions against New York in two games. That includes 0-for-11 on throws deeper than 10 yards downfield. The cornerbacks who gave Bryant the headaches return;
Janoris Jenkins and
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were critical components of a New York defense that was tops in opponents' Total QBR in the league (48.5, the only team below 50).
Big Blue allowed just 15 passing touchdowns last year, joining the Broncos as the only unit below one per game. The Giants excelled at preventing touchdowns -- and in critical situations last year -- but it's not a touchdown or expected points added prop.
They still ranked 10th highest in pass yards allowed. Twelve different players had more than 80 receiving yards in a game against the Giants last year, including four who were their respective team's top receiving option.
Plus, a deeper dive on Bryant's struggles against the Giants does show some relevant context. The first meeting was in Week 1 (Prescott's pro debut), a setting that can explain production shortcomings. Bryant had run only 51 routes in the previous two weeks combined before his Week 14 game. His workload fluctuated significantly from week to week since he returned from a hairline fracture in his knee, a sign he wasn't playing at full health.
If the total were much higher, the under would be the play -- but 81 yards is manageable for a receiver of his quality after an offseason to heal and a camp to get on the same page with Prescott.
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