Aberzombie1892 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Mr Tulip said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Mr Tulip said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Mr Tulip said:

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As a general rule, 4 million is the benchmark for national ratings. When the networks consider what properties advertisers care about, they like that number. It's usually what they base projections on.

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That's the benchmark for Big Ten and SEC programs ... or more accurately, blue blood or blue blood adjacent programs.

That's not what we are or are talking about here. And given that there are only a handful of games that are going to reach or exceed that number in most weeks, there's still value in programs that can consistently do a million plus. It's not Big Ten or SEC value, but ESPN and Fox need to fill a ton of programing, and they'll happily take a million plus viewers in their secondary and tertiary programing when the alterative is highlight shows that no one watches or G5 games that will do a fraction of that number.

The Big 12 still has a niche in modern college football. And that will be borne out in the league's next TV contract.

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That's actually what worries me.

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How so? I'm not following.

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I'm worried that the Big 12 will be that niche. It doesn't matter whether the game falls at 2:30 (almost always a tough "regional" slot) or 9:00pm. There's no advertising return on a game that holds a small audience. That's not "small for the time slot". That's just categorically small. Few eyeballs means less demand from advertisers. It doesn't matter if it's 90% of the football viewers at the time.

If having the Big 12's current champion and #9 ranked team play a tough game against a ranked opponent in an unopposed slot garners 2.3million, that doesn't exactly have a provider ready to over-pay for a contract. They'd have a tough time convincing themselves that any of the league's games would threaten that 4million mark that bumps up advertising rates.

Executive Summary: Niche is not good. Mainstream gets paid.

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All sports programing is niche compared to just 10, 15, 20 years ago. None of these games are doing what they did when most households had cable.

And there just aren't as many "mainstream" games as you seem to believe. Only three schools averaged more than 4 million viewers in 2021, and only 15 averaged even 2 million. And those numbers match the ratings from 2015-19, when again only three schools averaged more than 4 million and again only 15 averaged as many as 2 million.

There is no "mainstream" and "niche." There are only blue bloods and non blue bloods. And there are waaaayyyyyy too many time slots to fill exclusively with games that will draw the types of numbers you're talking about.

ESPN and Fox need live programing. And they'll pay for it because the alternative loses money. No one watches non-live sports programing anymore.

Don't worry about the Big 12. It will get paid. Will it be SEC or Big Ten money? Of course not. But it will be comparable to what the remaining programs have been accustomed to earning annually and have had no problem running their athletic programs on for decades.

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I think that Mr. Tulip's point is that the Big 12 champ vs. an undefeated, ranked (arguably P5 equivalent) team at an unopposed time slot on one of the big 4 networks (FOX, ABC, CBS, or ESPN) should have done better than 2.3M viewers if the Big 12 wants to be able to get better compensation in its next media deal, and that argument makes sense even outside of what the B1G, ND or SEC get paid.

I think that the conference will have a better idea of how things stand once the ratings of Oklahoma State and Baylor are back. Interestingly enough, that game will be on at the same time as the below games, so the ratings will be fascinating to see.

Selected games kicking off the same time as OSU v. Baylor (FOX):
Alabama v. Arkansas (CBS)
Northwestern v. Penn State (ESPN)
Wake Forest v. FSU (ABC)

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Wake/FlaSt may be mildly entertaining. After Arky shat the bed against Aggy that one should be uneventful. NW-PennSt has all the appeal of a test pattern.

Aberzombie1892 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Mr Tulip said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Mr Tulip said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Mr Tulip said:

---

As a general rule, 4 million is the benchmark for national ratings. When the networks consider what properties advertisers care about, they like that number. It's usually what they base projections on.

---

That's the benchmark for Big Ten and SEC programs ... or more accurately, blue blood or blue blood adjacent programs.

That's not what we are or are talking about here. And given that there are only a handful of games that are going to reach or exceed that number in most weeks, there's still value in programs that can consistently do a million plus. It's not Big Ten or SEC value, but ESPN and Fox need to fill a ton of programing, and they'll happily take a million plus viewers in their secondary and tertiary programing when the alterative is highlight shows that no one watches or G5 games that will do a fraction of that number.

The Big 12 still has a niche in modern college football. And that will be borne out in the league's next TV contract.

---

That's actually what worries me.

---

How so? I'm not following.

---

I'm worried that the Big 12 will be that niche. It doesn't matter whether the game falls at 2:30 (almost always a tough "regional" slot) or 9:00pm. There's no advertising return on a game that holds a small audience. That's not "small for the time slot". That's just categorically small. Few eyeballs means less demand from advertisers. It doesn't matter if it's 90% of the football viewers at the time.

If having the Big 12's current champion and #9 ranked team play a tough game against a ranked opponent in an unopposed slot garners 2.3million, that doesn't exactly have a provider ready to over-pay for a contract. They'd have a tough time convincing themselves that any of the league's games would threaten that 4million mark that bumps up advertising rates.

Executive Summary: Niche is not good. Mainstream gets paid.

---

All sports programing is niche compared to just 10, 15, 20 years ago. None of these games are doing what they did when most households had cable.

And there just aren't as many "mainstream" games as you seem to believe. Only three schools averaged more than 4 million viewers in 2021, and only 15 averaged even 2 million. And those numbers match the ratings from 2015-19, when again only three schools averaged more than 4 million and again only 15 averaged as many as 2 million.

There is no "mainstream" and "niche." There are only blue bloods and non blue bloods. And there are waaaayyyyyy too many time slots to fill exclusively with games that will draw the types of numbers you're talking about.

ESPN and Fox need live programing. And they'll pay for it because the alternative loses money. No one watches non-live sports programing anymore.

Don't worry about the Big 12. It will get paid. Will it be SEC or Big Ten money? Of course not. But it will be comparable to what the remaining programs have been accustomed to earning annually and have had no problem running their athletic programs on for decades.

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I think that Mr. Tulip's point is that the Big 12 champ vs. an undefeated, ranked (arguably P5 equivalent) team at an unopposed time slot on one of the big 4 networks (FOX, ABC, CBS, or ESPN) should have done better than 2.3M viewers if the Big 12 wants to be able to get better compensation in its next media deal, and that argument makes sense even outside of what the B1G, ND or SEC get paid.

I think that the conference will have a better idea of how things stand once the ratings of Oklahoma State and Baylor are back. Interestingly enough, that game will be on at the same time as the below games, so the ratings will be fascinating to see.

Selected games kicking off the same time as OSU v. Baylor (FOX):
Alabama v. Arkansas (CBS)
Northwestern v. Penn State (ESPN)
Wake Forest v. FSU (ABC)

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Should have done better based on what? It was literally the best rating in that time slot in years.

The Big 12 isn't competing with the SEC or Big Ten. It's competing with whatever else ESPN and/or Fox might put in those time slots. Against that standard, the league is doing just fine. There are simply too many time slots to fill and not enough premier games available for these networks to pass on a million-plus viewers when/where they can get them.

The Big 12 will get a TV deal commensurate with the value it provides, which is a league that can fill any time slot and guarantee you a respectable, if unspectacular, number. Both ESPN and Fox need Big 12 programming to fill out their Saturday schedules. Without it, they're relying on AAC and Mountain West games that will do a quarter of a million viewers on a good day.

We were #4 in the 11AM time slot. Although….we were on ESPN2 while the other were on FOX, ABC, and ESPN

https://i.ibb.co/6y07m5j/08-D650-FF-DDD2-4793-B131-F4-F2-AC1-DE9-A8.webp

I saw on twitter that our game vs ISU got 760k on Espn2 which is actually not bad for the deuce.

boognish_bear said:

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We were #4 in the 11AM time slot. Although….we were on ESPN2 while the other were on FOX, ABC, and ESPN

https://i.ibb.co/6y07m5j/08-D650-FF-DDD2-4793-B131-F4-F2-AC1-DE9-A8.webp

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Looks like we beat TCU/SMU and Duke/Kansas for what its worth.

Aberzombie1892 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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That's a hell of a number, period, for Baylor and BYU. That's more than double what those two have averaged the past five or six years.

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Agreed. It's elite for those two programs, but it likely won't be elite nationally.

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If you could guarantee 2.5M viewers every week at that time...that is elite.

Alabama at Tennessee on Oct 15 could be YUUUGE

All 👀 on the #Vols

𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝟒#GBO 🍊 pic.twitter.com/xuLqdDU0tO

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) September 28, 2022

Bakersdozen said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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That's a hell of a number, period, for Baylor and BYU. That's more than double what those two have averaged the past five or six years.

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Agreed. It's elite for those two programs, but it likely won't be elite nationally.

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If you could guarantee 2.5M viewers every week at that time...that is elite.

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Agreed, but the new look Big 12 couldn't guarantee that.

Bama vs Arky will lead the way but we should be 2nd in that time slot. Wake is fun to watch but has a tiny alumni base and FSU doesn't draw as much as they used to. Penn St has a big following but Northwestern sucks

Jack Bauer said:

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Alabama at Tennessee on Oct 15 could be YUUUGE

All 👀 on the #Vols

𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝟒#GBO 🍊 pic.twitter.com/xuLqdDU0tO

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) September 28, 2022

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Was this in what is generally considered the PAC After Dark time slot on ESPN?