Aberzombie1892 said:
Mr Tulip said:
bear2be2 said:
Mr Tulip said:
bear2be2 said:
Mr Tulip said:
As a general rule, 4 million is the benchmark for national ratings. When the networks consider what properties advertisers care about, they like that number. It's usually what they base projections on.
That's the benchmark for Big Ten and SEC programs ... or more accurately, blue blood or blue blood adjacent programs.
That's not what we are or are talking about here. And given that there are only a handful of games that are going to reach or exceed that number in most weeks, there's still value in programs that can consistently do a million plus. It's not Big Ten or SEC value, but ESPN and Fox need to fill a ton of programing, and they'll happily take a million plus viewers in their secondary and tertiary programing when the alterative is highlight shows that no one watches or G5 games that will do a fraction of that number.
The Big 12 still has a niche in modern college football. And that will be borne out in the league's next TV contract.
That's actually what worries me.
How so? I'm not following.
I'm worried that the Big 12 will be that niche. It doesn't matter whether the game falls at 2:30 (almost always a tough "regional" slot) or 9:00pm. There's no advertising return on a game that holds a small audience. That's not "small for the time slot". That's just categorically small. Few eyeballs means less demand from advertisers. It doesn't matter if it's 90% of the football viewers at the time.
If having the Big 12's current champion and #9 ranked team play a tough game against a ranked opponent in an unopposed slot garners 2.3million, that doesn't exactly have a provider ready to over-pay for a contract. They'd have a tough time convincing themselves that any of the league's games would threaten that 4million mark that bumps up advertising rates.
Executive Summary: Niche is not good. Mainstream gets paid.
Agreed, but, at the same time, there is no reason to worry about it because there is nothing that the Big 12 can do about it as this point. For Baylor, it has to rely on being good in order to drive any meaningful viewership, and, even in the cases where Baylor is ranked for regular season game, the ratings are generally not particularly great unless (1) the ratings are big for the opponent (i.e. UT/OU) or (2) the game has a major impact on the CFP chances of teams from other conferences - Baylor vs. OSU for Big 12 title, at the time it was played, impacted Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Notre Dame etc. as a win from OSU would have taken away a slot from that group.
This is the tough part. The Big 12 is set to play some of the most entertaining ball in the nation. The match ups on tap will make for a very competitive, diverse league. That part is for certain!
Certainly, if you have the opportunity to bring a large fan base, that's a good start. However, what matters most in bringing TV viewership seems to be the ability to affect the national title scene. Alabama has a lot of fans, for sure. People watch their games, though, because they're hoping to see #1 fall. tOSU, UGA, etc all have large alumni bases, but not near enough to support their viewership. People watch their games because their wins and losses affect college football's seasonal races.
Texas and OU are large brands. The annual game gets played at 11am because (1) that's the Big 12's national broadcast window (absent super-huge games) and (2) as intense as the rivalry is, there's not much chance this game will change the playoff race.
I'm concerned that the broadcast partners will break the bank for the top 2 properties (SEC and B1G) and only bid out the Big 12 and Pac 12 as afterthoughts.
