Early Thoughts on Baylor's 2023 Football Schedule

While the wait proved longer than anticipated, the Big 12 Conference's delay in announcing their schedules for 2023 ultimately led to a boon in interest league-wide. That interest was amplified further by the additions of four new schools and the potential final tour of two blue blood brands, each hoping 2023 is their goodbye tour before for greener pastures. 

There is plenty to digest, debate and predict, but here are the main takeaways from Baylor Football's 2023 campaign. 

1. Eight Home Games 

Dave Aranda and the Bears need to take advantage of having a record eight contests at McLane Stadium, including the first four games of the season. Last year, the Bears were 3-3 at home, 3-3 on the road, and 0-1 on a neutral site. Those three home losses were all against Top 25 opponents. The three home wins? Albany, Texas State, and a Kansas squad without Jalon Daniels. Playing .500 at home won't cut it next season, but it's entirely possible if not realistic. Look no further than the first month, with Utah and Texas coming to town for huge early-season matchups. 

2. All-Saturday Extravaganza 

Playing on Thursday and Friday nights can provide a unique platform and memorable atmosphere, but it has disadvantages in a sport where routine is everything. Last season, the Bears were 0-2 in those unique slots, falling at West Virginia on a Thursday night and against Texas on Black Friday in Austin. The fewer disruptions, the better in my mind. 

3. Who's In? 

The Bears will face new conference members UCF and Cincinnati on the road at 'The Bounce House' in Orlando and Nippert Stadium in the 'Queen City,' respectively. Then in early November, Houston will make their long-anticipated McLane Stadium debut. No Baylor fan should be foolish enough to brush off UCF ever since the 2014 Fiesta Bowl. Cincinnati may be undergoing a coaching change, but like Baylor has remained resilient and proven fully capable of winning under numerous head coaches. And there should be no love lost with the Coogs, given the new stakes, in-state implications, and renewed rivalry. 

Familiar faces for at least one more year include Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, TCU, Kansas State, and West Virginia. A good lineup, attraction, or competition-wise. But, the eye of the beholder there. 

@Gabriel Mayberry

4. Who's Out? 

There will not be a rubber match with BYU in 2023, as the Cougars are the only new Big 12 team not on the itinerary. That is a fair tradeoff since they've met the last two seasons, although Provo received rave reviews. After more than a decade of yearly contests, the Bears won't face Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, or Kansas unless it's in the Big 12 Championship game. 

Baylor has recent bragging rights home and away against the Sooners, so a good time to potentially end the series for the foreseeable future. Still, that's always a big-money game. The Pokes have been a regular season pest in Waco and Stillwater, even if they are in remodeling mode. And Kansas certainly is different from the usual layup with Jalon Daniels and Lance Leipold at the helm. So, maybe the Bears caught some breaks there, but again, opinions will no doubt vary. 

5. Tough Opening Act 

The month of September will be a fascinating thrill ride because of the calendar. Five games, the first four at home, and then the trip to Orlando. Texas State and Long Island might not rev engines, but they are undoubtedly necessary. Utah and Texas are massive home games — and should be somewhat revealing. And I've already mentioned the Knights and the trip to 'The Bounce House,' which will finally close the month. 5-0 would be incredible, 3-2 may be most likely, and 2-3 should be the floor, where they don't wish to find themselves almost halfway through. 

6. Long Island 

Last week, I asked Mack Rhoades about the status of their unannounced third non-conference game, and Tuesday's release helped solve the short-lived mystery. The Long Island Sharks were missing from my bingo card to fill the final slot, but there is some New York state of mind in play after adding Albany in a similar spot one year ago. So that game should serve several positive purposes. 

7. Utah = Non-Con Excitement

Over the past few seasons, Baylor's non-con schedules have gone from ridicule to a slow ramp-up of respectability. Duke and BYU were recent foes, but the reigning Pac-12 Champion Utah Utes head to Waco for what feels like the biggest non-con game in ages before returning the favor in Salt Lake City in 2024. There are plenty of questions on both sides, and a long way to go until that time. After all, it's only February. But on paper, this has tons of potential. 

8. Road Trips 

The Bears only have four road games, but Cincinnati, Orlando, Fort Worth, and Manhattan will each be rough venues and could easily produce an 0-4 mark. Playing in Fort Worth does give the Bears nine games in-state. However, the other three aren't ideal driving destinations. 

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9. Back-to-Back

The only back-to-back road contests come in mid-November against Kansas State and TCU, which looks tough on paper. K-State's program mirrors your reflection in so many ways, and TCU is your arch-nemesis that you can't seem to beat, regardless of circumstances. The disdain for the Frogs grows and is now armed with another juicy subplot, thanks to their recent OC hire. How these teams arrive on these dates will determine the difficulty level. There are still too many unknowns, but recent history says that's an 0-2 hole if you're not up to snuff by that point. 

10. Bye Week 

The Bears' bye week occurs right after game six against Texas Tech, creating symmetrical halves in the schedule. By that point, they'll be plenty battle-tested and in good need of a break but not road-hardened. The extra timing of the off-week will help lead to preparations for the Cincinnati trip.

11. Death to Round Robin 

In the ten-team setup, we made the same comparisons with schedules, labeling schools as having the easiest or most challenging route based on the same factors. No doubt foolishly to some extent, given the number of variables at play seven months out. But, until now, we ultimately knew we'd see every matchup, no matter what. Talk trash to your fellow conference mates, but eventually, it got settled on the field. But now, you're scheduled to miss four teams this season and two each year in the future, barring further expansion. Not terrible, but it does make for a different feel. 

12. Far Too Early Prediction

In a far too early, wholly unofficial, and only partially educated prediction for 2023, I'm waffling between a 7-5 and 8-4 mark for the Bears next season.