At the moment, Alabama is up at halftime on the 2-time defending champions.

Should that score hold, the waters will definitely be murky - UNLESS FSU or Michigan take an 'L' later tonight.

So the bottom line is this.


Straight-forward Scenarios:

-Washington is into the clubhouse with a win last night.

-Michigan can get in with a win over Iowa.

-Georgia gets in if they rally against Bama in the 2nd half.


Likely to Happen, BUT:

-FSU will likely get in with a win over Louisville, although that may depend on how they look tonight with their 3rd stringer. A sloppy game, despite being undefeated, may sway some of the committee members to consider leaving them out for one of the following teams in the next group below.


Could Use Some Help:

-Alabama should realistically get in if they beat the top ranked, undefeated, 2-time defending champions. However, that Texas loss has been a problem for them throughout the season, despite it happening in Week 2.

-Texas really needs either FSU to lose (a legitimate possibility) or Michigan to lose (not likely). Georgia winning would be their best bet at the moment, however, since rolling the dice on that Bama head-to-head may not end up going the way they expect it to.


Needs All Kinds of Help:

-Ohio State needs Georgia to rally, FSU to lose, and Michigan to lose. IF that were to somehow happen, they could possibly overtake Michigan for the #4 spot.


Thank goodness we'll get an actual playoff starting next year, because this beauty pageant mess is getting old.

If Bama wins they are in. No way they leave out the SEC Champs
Georgia would still get in, dropping to 3 or 4
Washington got in last night, Pac12 Champs
Michigan would get in with a win over Iowa, Big10 Champs

Sorry horns, Adios mofos!

It would be difficult to leave Texas out if any of the following happen:

1. Alabama wins
2. FSU loses
3. Michigan loses

FSU should be out even if they win. They're not one of the four best teams without their QB. And that's what the CFP says: 4 best not the 4 most deserving.

MrGolfguy said:

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If Bama wins they are in. No way they leave out the SEC Champs
Georgia would still get in, dropping to 3 or 4
Washington got in last night, Pac12 Champs
Michigan would get in with a win over Iowa, Big10 Champs

Sorry horns, Adios mofos!

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Yes, Bama beating UGA is worse case for UT.

Bama, Michigan, UW would be in.

FSU is in with win or UGA stays in top 4?

I don't even like UT but they are about to get screwed,

Bama is in
UW is in
Michigan is in with win

down to FSU, UT and UGA for last spot.

I so hope so.

Announcers doing their best to pump up the SEC. All this talk of "you can't leave the SEC out" is such BS. Other conferences have been left out before.

If Florida state and Michigan take care of business, sorry SEC, you should be left out. Can't put Bama in over UT, based on head to head alone.

I think there is more bias like this in the CFP committee than we think...they just utterly despise other teams trying to join their country club.

FSU is not getting in (assuming Michigan wins). Gonna be easy for the committee to say it's not the most deserving (FSU), it's the best 4 teams and FSU without its starting QB isn't one of those 4. Sit back and watch. It is gonna happen.

It will be:

Mich (assuming they win)
Washington

Texas, Bama, UGA - the final 2 will come from those 3.

According to Allstate Playoff Predictor...4 scenarios remain

• Mich, FSU win: (Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas)
• Mich, Louisville win: (Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama)
• Iowa, FSU win: (Washington, FSU, Texas, Alabama)
• Iowa, Lville win: (Washington, Texas, Alabama, Georgia)

GoldenBear007 said:

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Can't put Bama in over UT, based on head to head alone.

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Bama will get in as SEC Champs, head to head won't matter

Jack Bauer said:

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According to Allstate Playoff Predictor...4 scenarios remain

• Mich, FSU win: (Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas)
• Mich, Louisville win: (Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama)
• Iowa, FSU win: (Washington, FSU, Texas, Alabama)
• Iowa, Lville win: (Washington, Texas, Alabama, Georgia)

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Those are all wrong LOL

Jack Bauer said:

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According to Allstate Playoff Predictor...4 scenarios remain

• Mich, FSU win: (Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas)
• Mich, Louisville win: (Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama)
• Iowa, FSU win: (Washington, FSU, Texas, Alabama)
• Iowa, Lville win: (Washington, Texas, Alabama, Georgia)

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These make sense. Alabama getting in to the exclusion of Texas would be insane, and Georgia isn't getting in to the exclusion of either Alabama or Texas. Otherwise, Washington is getting in and Michigan is getting in with a win.

I think a lot of people are banking on that head-to-head really mattering.


I present to you Exhibit A (and B), concerning head-to-head not mattering:

2014: Baylor and TCU

The committee actually had TCU up to #3 in the penultimate CFP Poll that year (we were at #6 in that same poll). Had either FSU or Ohio State lost, or had Ohio State not completely steamrolled Wisconsin, I can almost assure you that TCU would have somehow made it into the CFP over Baylor. Don't let that final, meaningless CFP Poll fool you (where Baylor was ahead of TCU).

2016: Ohio State and Penn State

Penn State, despite beating Ohio State in their head-to-head matchup, then going on to win the Big Ten Title - was left out of the CFP for that same Ohio State team.

Sure, Penn State had the two losses (to Ohio State's one), but shouldn't the head-to-head have mattered?


Winning the SEC as an undefeated or 1-loss team will most definitely matter more, as I suspect we'll all find out tomorrow morning.

However - this could all be a moot point if Louisville takes out FSU.

Then both Bama and Texas get in.

LTBear19 said:

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At the moment, Alabama is up at halftime on the 2-time defending champions.

Should that score hold, the waters will definitely be murky - UNLESS FSU or Michigan take an 'L' later tonight.

So the bottom line is this.


Straight-forward Scenarios:

-Washington is into the clubhouse with a win last night.

-Michigan can get in with a win over Iowa.

-Georgia gets in if they rally against Bama in the 2nd half.


Likely to Happen, BUT:

-FSU will likely get in with a win over Louisville, although that may depend on how they look tonight with their 3rd stringer. A sloppy game, despite being undefeated, may sway some of the committee members to consider leaving them out for one of the following teams in the next group below.


Could Use Some Help:

-Alabama should realistically get in if they beat the top ranked, undefeated, 2-time defending champions. However, that Texas loss has been a problem for them throughout the season, despite it happening in Week 2.

-Texas really needs either FSU to lose (a legitimate possibility) or Michigan to lose (not likely). Georgia winning would be their best bet at the moment, however, since rolling the dice on that Bama head-to-head may not end up going the way they expect it to.


Needs All Kinds of Help:

-Ohio State needs Georgia to rally, FSU to lose, and Michigan to lose. IF that were to somehow happen, they could possibly overtake Michigan for the #4 spot.


Thank goodness we'll get an actual playoff starting next year, because this beauty pageant mess is getting old.

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I prefer to go back to the old bowl system since this is the Football Bowl Subdivision. There's already a playoff system that crowns a National Champion in the Football Championship Subdivision.

WOW… we wanted chaos and we got it!! 🍿🍿🍿

As we stand here right now before the 8pm games kick…

1- @UMichFootball
2- @UW_Football
3- @TexasFootball
4- @FSUFootball OR @AlabamaFTBL will be the debate with the committee

Who do you think will make the Top 4??? pic.twitter.com/OC8eJxQNfh

— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) December 3, 2023

Kirk's trying to tell you guys what's about to happen.

Michigan cruising already 10-0 over Iowa.

#1 Michigan
#2 Washington

#3 Texas?
#4 FSU/Alabama?

By scoring a TD, Michigan has secured the Big 10 title.

coldhardtruth said:

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By scoring a TD, Michigan has secured the Big 10 title.

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10 point deficit for normal teams=40 point deficit for Iowa.

Texas is in and if anyone thinks the SEC will get left out of ANY playoff scenario, then they're living in la la land.

So y'all think Texas is in no matter what?

Apparently no one wants to win the ACC.

If FSU wins they absolutely deserve to be in. An undefeated P5 team should never be left out

LTBear19 said:

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I think a lot of people are banking on that head-to-head really mattering.


I present to you Exhibit A (and B), concerning head-to-head not mattering:

2014: Baylor and TCU

The committee actually had TCU up to #3 in the penultimate CFP Poll that year (we were at #6 in that same poll). Had either FSU or Ohio State lost, or had Ohio State not completely steamrolled Wisconsin, I can almost assure you that TCU would have somehow made it into the CFP over Baylor. Don't let that final, meaningless CFP Poll fool you (where Baylor was ahead of TCU).

2016: Ohio State and Penn State

Penn State, despite beating Ohio State in their head-to-head matchup, then going on to win the Big Ten Title - was left out of the CFP for that same Ohio State team.

Sure, Penn State had the two losses (to Ohio State's one), but shouldn't the head-to-head have mattered?


Winning the SEC as an undefeated or 1-loss team will most definitely matter more, as I suspect we'll all find out tomorrow morning.

However - this could all be a moot point if Louisville takes out FSU.

Then both Bama and Texas get in.

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2014 isn't a good example because neither made it.

2016 Ohio State beat Oklahoma out of conference, so that's a closer example - but still not on point given that Ohio State didn't win its conference and Penn State has two loses. Two loses is essentially an automatic disqualifier given the committees' generally objective approach.

Fully DESERVE to be in. And, likely WOULD have put the committee in a place to not be able to turn them down if Travis was still playing. But now they've given the committee the easy way out to put 3 of the biggest brands of college football and a west coast team.

FSU is practically handing the committee its talking points tonight with the way they're playing. They really needed to win this 40-0 or some astronomical score to put the committee in a bad position. But, unfortunately, they're not.

IowaBear said:

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If FSU wins they absolutely deserve to be in. An undefeated P5 team should never be left out

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An undefeated P5 team never HAS been left ouf of the CFP...but there's always the SEC clause!

And up to this point no undefeated power 5 teams has been left out right?

You guys listened to Bill Hancock closely the other night, right? He set the stage when he said he clearly wanted to state the "most deserving" is not anything in the committee's lexicon. It is the BEST teams.

Committee's view of Texas vs us in the Briles years is totally different. They're not going to screw Texas like they would us. Texas is a blue blood, draws eyeballs, and basically in the SEC. Texas and Bama both should be in. Georgia and FSU out.

Facts

If fsu loses Alabama is in. If michigan and fsu lose Georgia in too. Texas and Washington are locks.

DanaDane said:

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WOW… we wanted chaos and we got it!! 🍿🍿🍿

As we stand here right now before the 8pm games kick…

1- @UMichFootball
2- @UW_Football
3- @TexasFootball
4- @FSUFootball OR @AlabamaFTBL will be the debate with the committee

Who do you think will make the Top 4??? pic.twitter.com/OC8eJxQNfh

— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) December 3, 2023

Kirk's trying to tell you guys what's about to happen.

---

Why does Kirk Herbstreit look like a chick now?

Did Kirk go trans?

Robert Wilson said:

---

DanaDane said:

---

WOW… we wanted chaos and we got it!! 🍿🍿🍿

As we stand here right now before the 8pm games kick…

1- @UMichFootball
2- @UW_Football
3- @TexasFootball
4- @FSUFootball OR @AlabamaFTBL will be the debate with the committee

Who do you think will make the Top 4??? pic.twitter.com/OC8eJxQNfh

— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) December 3, 2023

Kirk's trying to tell you guys what's about to happen.

---

Why does Kirk Herbstreit look like a chick now?

Did Kirk go trans?

---

He just lost weight