Predicting the 2024 Big 12 Season: Week 5

The preseason series predicting every single Big 12 game of the 2024 season continues today with week No. 5 as conference play features a few unbeaten teams squaring off.

Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

Saturday, September 28th

BYU 20 at Baylor 37

The Cougars went 0-5 in road games during Big 12 play a year ago and, on average, were outscored 38.8 to 17 in those games. There is nothing that tells me this trend isn’t going to continue, and Baylor’s revamped offense has the kind of passing attack that gave BYU a ton of problems a season ago. Dequan Finn throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes against one of the weaker secondaries in the Big 12. BYU’s plan of slowing the game down and controlling time of possession goes sideways as they average just 2.9 yards per carry in this one. The Bears control up front, and the passing attack thrives as they win a key conference at home.

Iowa State 20 at Houston 12

Slow and ugly game as the Cyclones don’t show up on the offensive side of the ball. Luckily for them, the defense has an elite day in the red zone as they hold Houston to just nine points in four trips. That’s the difference in this one. Rocco Becht throws a couple of touchdowns in an inefficient outing, but it is enough. Donovan Smith moves the ball well between the 20’s but his inaccuracy close to the end zone against this very strong defense just crushes them. Closer game than expected here.

TCU 28 at Kansas 33

This is a really good game and a very competitive one. Both offenses show flashes of explosiveness as each team has a score of 40+ yards, and they both have over 400 yards of total offense. However, the defenses each force two turnovers, which keeps this game from becoming a shootout. The difference in this one ends up being Jalon Daniels in the run game. He goes for 75 yards and a score; he also converts two 4th downs and two 3rd downs with his legs. Those types of plays sustain drives for the Jayhawks and allow them to get a lead early and keep it. Josh Hoover throws the ball really well in this game, but his lack of rushing ability causes TCU to be slightly less efficient. Big win for KU.

Oklahoma State 13 at Kansas State 27

Ugly game particularly for Oklahoma State. The Wildcats gear up to stop Ollie Gordon and make Alan Bowman beat them. The plan works as Bowman completes less than 60% of his passes with two interceptions. The Cowboy's defense slows down Avery Johnson and company early on, but eventually, they wear down. The Wildcats run for over 200 yards and dominate time of possession as they get a huge home win. Don’t forget this is a payback game for the Wildcats from last year.

Cincinnati 13 at Texas Tech 35

This will be the end of the road for one of these two surprise unbeaten teams in the conference. Both sit at 4-0 and are ranked at the time of this game. Unfortunately, the Bearcats have trouble with Lubbock, and this feels like one that could go sideways for them. The pass game falls apart as Brendan Sorsby throws three interceptions while playing from behind the entire day. The Red Raider's defense finishes with five sacks, three interceptions (one a pick-six by Ben Roberts), and a forced fumble. They have a day while the offense totals 350 yards and dominates the time of possession. This is a blowout in Lubbock and propels Tech inside the top 15 heading into a massive game on the road against Arizona.

Colorado 39 at UCF 42

Unreal game with a ton of fireworks. Shedeur Sanders throws for 400 yards and four touchdowns with zero turnovers as he moves up and down the field with this offense. Travis Hunter and LaJohntay Wester each go for 100 yards receiving. Unfortunately, they still struggle to run the ball on UCF, and it costs them. The Knights dominate time of possession, and their balanced offense allows them to control the game for stretches, even in a total shootout. Sanders guides the Buffs down the field and hits will Sheppard for a 30-yard touchdown. This gives Colorado a 39-35 lead with eight minutes left in the game. Gus Malzahn leans into his run game to finish this one off as KJ Jefferson, Penny Boone and RJ Harvey continue to wear down the Buff's defense before eventually scoring a one-yard touchdown run with 10 seconds left. Massive win in a very good game.

Arizona 23 at Utah 36

Folks this is a revenge game as Arizona beat the Utes 42-18 last season….Things are different this season as Utah will be at full strength. I expect Utah to run the ball early and often with Micah Bernard and Cam Rising. They win the physical battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This rushing attack keeps Arizona off the field and allows them to win the time of possession battle by a lot. Rising finishes with three touchdowns and over 300 yards of total offense. The Wildcats can’t find room to run the football so they rely on Noah Fifita to try to win this game on the road in Salt Lake City and it doesn’t go well as he turns it over twice and he throws for less than 275 yards. Utah cruises in this one as they get a little payback from last year’s rout.

Big 12 Standings

1. UCF — 4-0 (2-0)

1. Texas Tech — 5-0 (2-0)

1. Kansas State — 5-0 (2-0)

1. Baylor — 4-1 (2-0)

5. West Virginia — 3-1 (1-0)

5. Iowa State — 3-1 (1-0)

7. Cincinnati — 4-1 (1-1)

7. Oklahoma State — 4-1 (1-1)

7. Kansas — 4-1 (1-1)

7. Utah — 4-1 (1-1)

11. Arizona — 2-2 (0-1)

11. Arizona State — 1-3 (0-1)

13. Colorado — 3-2 (0-2)

13. TCU — 3-2 (0-2)

13. BYU — 2-3 (0-2)

13. Houston — 2-3 (0-2)