Matt Rhule

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FLBear5630
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Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
bear2be2
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boykin_spaniel said:

Joey still would've been learning on the job. He'd have been a first time FBS head coach. I don't see Tech winning more than 6-8 games this year including a bowl victory. OT with ACU, flummoxed by Wazzu, and a conference win against a one dimensional Arizona State team will likely finish near the bottom of the conference. No way to know he'd be doing better than Aranda.
The difference is internal promotions typically create pretty seamless transitions -- at least initially.

When they fail, it's usually a gradual decline over time. So that learning would have come in a more stable, safer environment with players and coaches who were already bought in.

Internal promotions are trying to sustain what you already had/have. External assistants have to build a program from scratch without the benefit of familiarity and no prior relevant experience.
D. C. Bear
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FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?


1. It is a myth that Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch.

2. Baylor is located in a great place to attract talent and we now have infrastructure that does make Baylor an attractive job.

3. Waco has become something of a destination.

His record the past season and a half does warrant firing, but there are extenuating circumstances that allow for that record to be set aside for the time being.
bear2be2
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D. C. Bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?


1. It is a myth that Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch.

2. Baylor is located in a great place to attract talent and we now have infrastructure that does make Baylor an attractive job.

3. Waco has become something of a destination.

His record the past season and a half does warrant firing, but there are extenuating circumstances that allow for that record to be set aside for the time being.
All of this.

A case can be made for a fifth season, and most begrudgingly accepted that case this offseason. But another losing season would make it impossible to justify a sixth.

At some point you have to have some standards. And four losing seasons in five years fails to meet any reasonable standard for Baylor football.
PartyBear
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FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
Your over all point is good. However this is not a terrible place to be generally speaking. Briles by all appearances had committed to be here for the long haul. Also Briles did not take players no one else would touch. To say that is also a myth. Almost everyone else wanted many of them as well. Furthermore when Aranda was one of the hottest names out there, he did not throw his name in any other hat and there were some very attractive programs with their hats out at that time. Dont get me wrong I'm not claiming it is viewed as a destination by most in the profession but it is also not viewed as a terrible place either.

Your sentence "his record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor" is also generally correct but I dont think for the same reason you do. Baylor really screwed up when the world changed with NIL by thinking stupidly we dont need to do that and deciding to tie Aranda and staff's hands behind their back for two years. That set the program back. Unlike administrations of the past however this administration did step up and realize they had screwed up more quickly than Baylor administrations have in the past rather than dig in screw up more and scape goat the HC and staff for their own shortcomings like has been a Baylor administration tradition. So yes he probably gets this season and next and more depending on next season unless the bottom falls out this season.
Robert Wilson
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FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?
Chuckroast
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boykin_spaniel said:

I'm sorry but losing on a Hail Mary is a bad loss anyway you slice it.


No doubt. When you combine a missed field goal to ice it and a hail mary and a goal line fumble in overtime, it's almost a statistical impossibility that all of that can happen in one game.
bear2be2
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boykin_spaniel said:

I'm sorry but losing on a Hail Mary is a bad loss anyway you slice it.
Particularly when that Hail Mary was only made possible by 1) a spineless three-and-out/missed field goal after a punt return to the 25 with a chance to completely ice the game and 2) a completely botched defensive call that saw multiple players bust assignment in a one-play Hail Mary situation.

Those aren't bad luck. Those are coaching failures. Is it possible to win in spite of them, sure. But they're the only way you lose.

And unfortunately, it was just a completely fitting ending for a Dave Aranda-coached football team the past three years. We have three or more losses like this every year now.

Honestly, busting assignment at multiple positions on a play called "Victory Cigar" is the most Dave Aranda thing ever. I would have been pleasantly surprised/relieved if we hadn't.

FLBear5630
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Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?


We gonna talk nice? I would love to talk football or we can keep calling each other names.

The whining about Aranda. A coaches record is his record. If you win the Sugar Bowl, it is a win. Unless it is Dave. Then there are qualifiers. His record is the same as Teaffs. Don't count, Teaff had to really struggle. For Dave there are qualifiers. Bad season by Rhule, isn't his fault or worse saying it is some strategy. Dave, he sucks Aranda has short comings no doubt but give him credit for what he did do. This team is better. They have more heart, play better D. They have not gotten any bounces yet. You know it equals out. This season is not over. Just need enough for a bowl. Get some positive momentum.
Robert Wilson
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FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?


We gonna talk nice? I would love to talk football or we can keep calling each other names.

The whining about Aranda. A coaches record is his record. If you win the Sugar Bowl, it is a win. Unless it is Dave. Then there are qualifiers. His record is the same as Teaffs. Don't count, Teaff had to really struggle. For Dave there are qualifiers. Bad season by Rhule, isn't his fault or worse saying it is some strategy. Dave, he sucks Aranda has short comings no doubt but give him credit for what he did do. This team is better. They have more heart, play better D. They have not gotten any bounces yet. You know it equals out. This season is not over. Just need enough for a bowl. Get some positive momentum.
So you can't point to me whining. Very good. Have a nice day.
Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough.

I don't think anyone on here is saying Baylor is a "destination coaching spot"

But its also not the kind of place you need to run away from the first chance you get.

Its not Starkville Mississippi or Corvallis Oregon

Waco is right in the middle of the Texas Triangle with over 21 million people in a 3hr drive from campus.

The University is highly respected, the girls on campus are cute, Its now got top notch athletic facilities, and it pays (both coaching staff and players) at a high level. And other coaches have proven you can win at a high level (conference titles in Football... National title in basketball)

We might not ever be a "destination coaching spot" but we sure as heck are a good coaching spot
FLBear5630
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Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?


We gonna talk nice? I would love to talk football or we can keep calling each other names.

The whining about Aranda. A coaches record is his record. If you win the Sugar Bowl, it is a win. Unless it is Dave. Then there are qualifiers. His record is the same as Teaffs. Don't count, Teaff had to really struggle. For Dave there are qualifiers. Bad season by Rhule, isn't his fault or worse saying it is some strategy. Dave, he sucks Aranda has short comings no doubt but give him credit for what he did do. This team is better. They have more heart, play better D. They have not gotten any bounces yet. You know it equals out. This season is not over. Just need enough for a bowl. Get some positive momentum.
So you can't point to me whining. Very good. Have a nice day.
I show you with stats and facts that Teaff and Aranda are in basically the same place. Your response: But, But, they were not in the same situation...

That is not giving the guy his due, Aranda has not done as bad as he is being portrayed because he is nice. I said Aranda can't have anything positive said about him Then you back it up with the pre-teen girl, that is whining. Little ***** whining that anyone, including me should be called on.

Robert Wilson
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?


We gonna talk nice? I would love to talk football or we can keep calling each other names.

The whining about Aranda. A coaches record is his record. If you win the Sugar Bowl, it is a win. Unless it is Dave. Then there are qualifiers. His record is the same as Teaffs. Don't count, Teaff had to really struggle. For Dave there are qualifiers. Bad season by Rhule, isn't his fault or worse saying it is some strategy. Dave, he sucks Aranda has short comings no doubt but give him credit for what he did do. This team is better. They have more heart, play better D. They have not gotten any bounces yet. You know it equals out. This season is not over. Just need enough for a bowl. Get some positive momentum.
So you can't point to me whining. Very good. Have a nice day.
I show you with stats and facts that Teaff and Aranda are in basically the same place. Your response: But, But, they were not in the same situation...

That is not giving the guy his due, Aranda has not done as bad as he is being portrayed because he is nice. I said Aranda can't have anything positive said about him Then you back it up with the pre-teen girl, that is whining. Little ***** whining that anyone, including me should be called on.
I said Teaff and Aranda came into very different situations. You said "Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives." Those aren't even remotely the same thing. You got triggered by what you feel like people generally are saying on this board rather than responding to what I actually said. Hence the pre-teen girl comment. And you continued with it. I'm done. Have a nice day.
FLBear5630
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Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?


We gonna talk nice? I would love to talk football or we can keep calling each other names.

The whining about Aranda. A coaches record is his record. If you win the Sugar Bowl, it is a win. Unless it is Dave. Then there are qualifiers. His record is the same as Teaffs. Don't count, Teaff had to really struggle. For Dave there are qualifiers. Bad season by Rhule, isn't his fault or worse saying it is some strategy. Dave, he sucks Aranda has short comings no doubt but give him credit for what he did do. This team is better. They have more heart, play better D. They have not gotten any bounces yet. You know it equals out. This season is not over. Just need enough for a bowl. Get some positive momentum.
So you can't point to me whining. Very good. Have a nice day.
I show you with stats and facts that Teaff and Aranda are in basically the same place. Your response: But, But, they were not in the same situation...

That is not giving the guy his due, Aranda has not done as bad as he is being portrayed because he is nice. I said Aranda can't have anything positive said about him Then you back it up with the pre-teen girl, that is whining. Little ***** whining that anyone, including me should be called on.
I said Teaff and Aranda came into very different situations. You said "Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives." Those aren't even remotely the same thing. You got triggered by what you feel like people generally are saying on this board rather than responding to what I actually said. Hence the pre-teen girl comment. And you continued with it. I'm done. Have a nice day.
I'm done if you are. I was done yesterday. It is a message board, people say things and sometimes things in writing come out harsher than they are meant. You respond, move on. Not personal, more akin to bar talk, short of being able to buy a guy a beer or drink a shot if you are wrong. There are no visible cues of intent, so this **** happens. Still disagree on Teaff... : ) (visible cue)

Aberzombie1892
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FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.
FLBear5630
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Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
PartyBear
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Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough.

I don't think anyone on here is saying Baylor is a "destination coaching spot"

But its also not the kind of place you need to run away from the first chance you get.

Its not Starkville Mississippi or Corvallis Oregon

Waco is right in the middle of the Texas Triangle with over 21 million people in a 3hr drive from campus.

The University is highly respected, the girls on campus are cute, Its now got top notch athletic facilities, and it pays (both coaching staff and players) at a high level. And other coaches have proven you can win at a high level (conference titles in Football... National title in basketball)

We might not ever be a "destination coaching spot" but we sure as heck are a good coaching spot
You actually undercounted a little. There are about 24 million who live within a 175 mile radius of Waco which is close to a 3 hour drive. This is about 80% of the Texas population and actually a population equal to 60% of California's population. Waco is actually in a great geographic location.
bear2be2
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FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?


We gonna talk nice? I would love to talk football or we can keep calling each other names.

The whining about Aranda. A coaches record is his record. If you win the Sugar Bowl, it is a win. Unless it is Dave. Then there are qualifiers. His record is the same as Teaffs. Don't count, Teaff had to really struggle. For Dave there are qualifiers. Bad season by Rhule, isn't his fault or worse saying it is some strategy. Dave, he sucks Aranda has short comings no doubt but give him credit for what he did do. This team is better. They have more heart, play better D. They have not gotten any bounces yet. You know it equals out. This season is not over. Just need enough for a bowl. Get some positive momentum.
Context is important. Always.

Sorry that offends you.
bear2be2
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FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.
D. C. Bear
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bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.


I am going to go out in a limb here and guess that you don't actually teach statistics because that's not how outliers work.
bear2be2
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D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.
I am going to go out in a limb here and guess that you don't actually teach statistics because that's not how outliers work.
After this season, plot our win totals under Aranda and draw a line of best fit. Then predict our 2025 record based on that data sample, and tell me how statistically significant you find the 2021 result to be. That season was a complete anomaly, unlikely to ever be repeated by this regime.

The 2020 season that everyone wants to excuse proved to be more predictive than its successor.

But I'm not going to get into a semantics argument when the spirit of my post was both obvious and true. The 2021 season was great. But because of what has followed it, it now has zero relevance -- and almost no statistical significance -- when attempting to forecast the future of the Baylor football program under Dave Aranda.
Stranger
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bear2be2 said:

D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.
I am going to go out in a limb here and guess that you don't actually teach statistics because that's not how outliers work.
After this season, plot our win totals under Aranda and draw a line of best fit. Then predict our 2025 record based on that data sample, and tell me how statistically significant you find the 2021 result to be. That season was a complete anomaly, unlikely to ever be repeated by this regime.

The 2020 season that everyone wants to excuse proved to be more predictive than its successor.

But I'm not going to get into a semantics argument when the spirit of my post was both obvious and true. The 2021 season was great. But because of what has followed it, it now has zero relevance -- and almost no statistical significance -- when attempting to forecast the future of the Baylor football program under Dave Aranda.

are you Mack Rhoades, Linda Livingstone or Art Briles?
D. C. Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2be2 said:

D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.
I am going to go out in a limb here and guess that you don't actually teach statistics because that's not how outliers work.
After this season, plot our win totals under Aranda and draw a line of best fit. Then predict our 2025 record based on that data sample, and tell me how statistically significant you find the 2021 result to be. That season was a complete anomaly, unlikely to ever be repeated by this regime.

The 2020 season that everyone wants to excuse proved to be more predictive than its successor.

But I'm not going to get into a semantics argument when the spirit of my post was both obvious and true. The 2021 season was great. But because of what has followed it, it now has zero relevance -- and almost no statistical significance -- when attempting to forecast the future of the Baylor football program under Dave Aranda.


I agree that win totals in the 2021 season have zero relevance when attempting to forecast the future of Baylor football. However, win totals from the 2023 season are similarly irrelevant. There are all kinds of ways to dissect win totals and seasons to make them appear better or worse than they actually are. You don't have the data to support the argument that Aranda is unlikely to ever win again.

We are in a changed environment when it comes to college football. It is so different that rules of thumb about how long it should take to turn a program around no longer apply. You don't have to take four or more years to recruit freshmen and slowly develop them. Today, areas of need can be addressed through the portal and NIL.

If you want to forecast the future football fortunes, you have to be able to predict the talent that will be on the roster going forward and the coaches' ability to get that talent to play close to its potential (if you predict that the talent will be on par with the competition). Win totals from three seasons ago, 30 seasons ago or even one season ago are not really a large part of that equation if they factor in at all.

In any event, if we are talking predicting the future of Baylor football under Dane Aranda after this season it will be because the trend line in wins is going back up.
bear2be2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.
I am going to go out in a limb here and guess that you don't actually teach statistics because that's not how outliers work.
After this season, plot our win totals under Aranda and draw a line of best fit. Then predict our 2025 record based on that data sample, and tell me how statistically significant you find the 2021 result to be. That season was a complete anomaly, unlikely to ever be repeated by this regime.

The 2020 season that everyone wants to excuse proved to be more predictive than its successor.

But I'm not going to get into a semantics argument when the spirit of my post was both obvious and true. The 2021 season was great. But because of what has followed it, it now has zero relevance -- and almost no statistical significance -- when attempting to forecast the future of the Baylor football program under Dave Aranda.


I agree that win totals in the 2021 season have zero relevance when attempting to forecast the future of Baylor football. However, win totals from the 2023 season are similarly irrelevant. There are all kinds of ways to dissect win totals and seasons to make them appear better or worse than they actually are. You don't have the data to support the argument that Aranda is unlikely to ever win again.

We are in a changed environment when it comes to college football. It is so different that rules of thumb about how long it should take to turn a program around no longer apply. You don't have to take four or more years to recruit freshmen and slowly develop them. Today, areas of need can be addressed through the portal and NIL.

If you want to forecast the future football fortunes, you have to be able to predict the talent that will be on the roster going forward and the coaches' ability to get that talent to play close to its potential (if you predict that the talent will be on par with the competition). Win totals from three seasons ago, 30 seasons ago or even one season ago are not really a large part of that equation if they factor in at all.

In any event, if we are talking predicting the future of Baylor football under Dane Aranda after this season it will be because the trend line in wins is going back up.
A 6-6 regular-season record, which would likely be enough to earn Aranda another season, is only trending up in a two-year sample. It would be matching the median of a thoroughly mediocre five-year head coaching tenure.

There are almost no markers that suggest our program is headed in a positive long-term direction. The only thing we can point to that even comes close to inspiring hope for a legitimately bright future is our relative youth. And a) this regime (I can't say staff because principal figures change annually) hasn't done a very good job of developing the talent it's gotten to campus and b) in the NIL/transfer portal era, we're not even guaranteed to have those players we're hoping will lead the turn around back on our roster next season.
D. C. Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2be2 said:

D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.
I am going to go out in a limb here and guess that you don't actually teach statistics because that's not how outliers work.
After this season, plot our win totals under Aranda and draw a line of best fit. Then predict our 2025 record based on that data sample, and tell me how statistically significant you find the 2021 result to be. That season was a complete anomaly, unlikely to ever be repeated by this regime.

The 2020 season that everyone wants to excuse proved to be more predictive than its successor.

But I'm not going to get into a semantics argument when the spirit of my post was both obvious and true. The 2021 season was great. But because of what has followed it, it now has zero relevance -- and almost no statistical significance -- when attempting to forecast the future of the Baylor football program under Dave Aranda.


I agree that win totals in the 2021 season have zero relevance when attempting to forecast the future of Baylor football. However, win totals from the 2023 season are similarly irrelevant. There are all kinds of ways to dissect win totals and seasons to make them appear better or worse than they actually are. You don't have the data to support the argument that Aranda is unlikely to ever win again.

We are in a changed environment when it comes to college football. It is so different that rules of thumb about how long it should take to turn a program around no longer apply. You don't have to take four or more years to recruit freshmen and slowly develop them. Today, areas of need can be addressed through the portal and NIL.

If you want to forecast the future football fortunes, you have to be able to predict the talent that will be on the roster going forward and the coaches' ability to get that talent to play close to its potential (if you predict that the talent will be on par with the competition). Win totals from three seasons ago, 30 seasons ago or even one season ago are not really a large part of that equation if they factor in at all.

In any event, if we are talking predicting the future of Baylor football under Dane Aranda after this season it will be because the trend line in wins is going back up.
A 6-6 regular-season record, which would likely be enough to earn Aranda another season, is only trending up in a two-year sample. It would be matching the median of a thoroughly mediocre five-year head coaching tenure.

There are almost no markers that suggest our program is headed in a positive long-term direction. The only thing we can point to that even comes close to inspiring hope for a legitimately bright future is our relative youth. And a) this regime (I can't say staff because principal figures change annually) hasn't done a very good job of developing the talent it's gotten to campus and b) in the NIL/transfer portal era, we're not even guaranteed to have those players we're hoping will lead the turn around back on our roster next season.


List things, in your view, that are "markers" to predict the long term direction of any program.
jikespingleton
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Take that condescending trolling horse **** somewhere else.
bear2be2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

D. C. Bear said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Exactly, His record does not warrant firing, especially at a place like Baylor. He finishes with a Bowl Game, he is ahead of the curve.

Some seem to believe BU is a destination Coaching spot. Rhule left as soon as he could and Briles had to bring in players no one else would touch. Our Athletic Program has some of the worst scandals in College History yet 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking in his first 5 years is not good enough. The guy has an unimpeachable integrity, which Baylor needs after Briles, Bliss, Starr and the whole cast of characters. And it is located in Waco, not exactly a garden spot on the coaching circuit. This is not a premier job and looking at the whole picture Aranda is not doing that bad. Who are you getting better that doesn't leave BU in the same boat 3 years later if they win?

Who has the realism and expectations of a pre-teen girl?
The Baylor job is a nuanced situation. On one hand, Baylor has only had one coach in its history that has had relatively sustained success, so it's difficult to assess what any other coach would do if such coach could sustain similar success. On the other hand, the Big 12 isn't what it was prior to all of the changes (transfer portal, NIL, OU/UT leaving, etc.), so it will be much more difficult for any coach to have sustained success at Baylor the way that such success was potentially attainable a few short years ago. To that end, it wouldn't be surprising if Baylor struggled to sign hot shot sitting HCs at the G5 level without overcommitting (in terms of annual HC pay, assistant coaching pool money, and length of initial contract). FCS coaches would be easier to target for a more traditional contract based on the salary disparity between FCS and the Big 12/ACC.

Thank you.

I think the knee jerk to give these huge contracts after one winning season bites alot of teams AND sets up Coaches for an unrealistic expectation. You cannot expect a Baylor to compete for the Conf Championship every year. The school is a "Nuanced" school with a unique mission that alot of times goes against the cut throat nature of P5 football.

I think Aranda is the perfect man for Baylor, but I do not think he can win enough to keep his job as he won't go the Briles route. Side note, the only "FCA" coach that I know that won AND played the Baptist card was Bowden. "Every boy deserves a 2nd chance. Those that run 4.4's deserve more..." I think the program is in good hands with Aranda, but not winning hands.

I seriously do not think you can win consistently and stay true to a religious mission, including ND, BC, SMU. TCU. and BYU. Football is a violent game and attracts violent people.
No one here expects a conference championship every year. That's a complete straw man.

We do, however, expect competent, sound football, something we haven't had consistently since 2021 -- the only good year produced during Dave Aranda's tenure.

I think most give him due credit for that season. That was, in my opinion and by record, the best season and most complete team Baylor has ever had, and he was the CEO of our program when it happened. But our trajectory arrow since then has been pointed straight downward. If Baylor football was a stock, we'd have investors taking dives off the ALICO building right now.

Statistically, 2021 has become a textbook outlier in an otherwise dreadful coaching tenure.

Look, I like everything about Dave except for his ability to build and lead a winning football team. I think he's a good, honorable man who has built a healthy, respectable culture in our program. But his job is to win football games. He has to do that part of his job to keep his job. And we've been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for three straight years now.
I am going to go out in a limb here and guess that you don't actually teach statistics because that's not how outliers work.
After this season, plot our win totals under Aranda and draw a line of best fit. Then predict our 2025 record based on that data sample, and tell me how statistically significant you find the 2021 result to be. That season was a complete anomaly, unlikely to ever be repeated by this regime.

The 2020 season that everyone wants to excuse proved to be more predictive than its successor.

But I'm not going to get into a semantics argument when the spirit of my post was both obvious and true. The 2021 season was great. But because of what has followed it, it now has zero relevance -- and almost no statistical significance -- when attempting to forecast the future of the Baylor football program under Dave Aranda.


I agree that win totals in the 2021 season have zero relevance when attempting to forecast the future of Baylor football. However, win totals from the 2023 season are similarly irrelevant. There are all kinds of ways to dissect win totals and seasons to make them appear better or worse than they actually are. You don't have the data to support the argument that Aranda is unlikely to ever win again.

We are in a changed environment when it comes to college football. It is so different that rules of thumb about how long it should take to turn a program around no longer apply. You don't have to take four or more years to recruit freshmen and slowly develop them. Today, areas of need can be addressed through the portal and NIL.

If you want to forecast the future football fortunes, you have to be able to predict the talent that will be on the roster going forward and the coaches' ability to get that talent to play close to its potential (if you predict that the talent will be on par with the competition). Win totals from three seasons ago, 30 seasons ago or even one season ago are not really a large part of that equation if they factor in at all.

In any event, if we are talking predicting the future of Baylor football under Dane Aranda after this season it will be because the trend line in wins is going back up.
A 6-6 regular-season record, which would likely be enough to earn Aranda another season, is only trending up in a two-year sample. It would be matching the median of a thoroughly mediocre five-year head coaching tenure.

There are almost no markers that suggest our program is headed in a positive long-term direction. The only thing we can point to that even comes close to inspiring hope for a legitimately bright future is our relative youth. And a) this regime (I can't say staff because principal figures change annually) hasn't done a very good job of developing the talent it's gotten to campus and b) in the NIL/transfer portal era, we're not even guaranteed to have those players we're hoping will lead the turn around back on our roster next season.


List things, in your view, that are "markers" to predict the long term direction of any program.
Consistency, continuity, schematic soundness, effective line play, the list goes on and on.

There's a reason that even in the highly volatile landscape of the NIL/transfer portal era that certain programs have higher degrees of predictability than others -- even with moderate talent.

Those with track records of developing their talent to consistent, coherent schemes and executing those schemes at a high level consistently are going to be less prone to wild swings than those that can't.

We've had three coordinators on both sides of the ball in five years and still can't field an offensive line capable of blocking our base plays. Those things don't happen at Utah, Oklahoma State or Kansas State. Hell, they don't even happen at Iowa State under Campbell.
FLBear5630
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bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

FLBear5630 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Chuckroast said:

jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

Chuckroast said:

bear2be2 said:

Chuckroast said:

Rhule had one good season at Baylor and is remembered for that Sugar Bowl run, but was that a truly great team?

We beat Rice in a one score game out of conference. We won many more one score games against Mountain West type of competition in our conference. No team was ranked except for Texas at #25. I also seem to recall that we had the good fortune of playing against backup QBs in a couple of games.

Oklahoma (who we lost to twice) was ostensibly a good team although they lost by 35 points to LSU in the playoff semis.

We got the benefit of having a great record coming out of a weak conference. We would have been middle of the pack in a better conference. We were not a great team, but some people act like losing Rhule was what killed our program and not losing Briles.
That defense was a top-15 unit by virtually any measure. And the offense, which finished 27th nationally in scoring, was more functional than any Briles defense but the 2013 unit.

Complementary football with elite defense is the most reliable path there is to college football success. You'll be in virtually every game you play that way.
Not arguing the metrics . . . but they were achieved against ho hum competition that year.
Crazy how Rhule parlayed the 2019 year with multiple near misses into a NFL job and then the Nebraska job.
It's only crazy to someone that is either butthurt about Rhule leaving us or otherwise dislikes him.


I'm certainly not upset that he left. Question for you: if Rhule apologized for leaving and said Baylor is where he wanted to spend the rest of his career, would you want him hired?
Interesting thought exercise. I would take him. He would make us better than we are now. He didn't want to be here before. He'd probably squirrel out on us again in 3-4 years, but we'd be better.

Plus, after canning Briles, we put ourselves on a likely coaching treadmill anyway. Absent finding another Teaff (unlikely but not impossible), we will have a coach a few years. He'll leave because he wins and moves on or because he's fired.


Check the records, Aranda and Teaff are uncanny how close their on field results are after 5 years.


They did not enter similar situations.
Yeah, Sorry forgot Dave can't have any positives.
Yeah, that's what I said. Are you a pre-teen girl?
Nah, just sick of listening to the one sided whining. Pre-teen girls would be less whiny.
Where was I whining?


We gonna talk nice? I would love to talk football or we can keep calling each other names.

The whining about Aranda. A coaches record is his record. If you win the Sugar Bowl, it is a win. Unless it is Dave. Then there are qualifiers. His record is the same as Teaffs. Don't count, Teaff had to really struggle. For Dave there are qualifiers. Bad season by Rhule, isn't his fault or worse saying it is some strategy. Dave, he sucks Aranda has short comings no doubt but give him credit for what he did do. This team is better. They have more heart, play better D. They have not gotten any bounces yet. You know it equals out. This season is not over. Just need enough for a bowl. Get some positive momentum.
Context is important. Always.

Sorry that offends you.


Nothing offends me on a message board. Your good, no issues
Stranger
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Chuckroast
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jikespingleton said:

Chuckroast said:

After 3 years, Aranda had 2 bowl appearances, one conference championship, and a sugar bowl victory and a #5 end of season ranking. The COVID year was the only non-bowl season, but a year like that shouldn't really be given much scrutiny anyway. That's a good start for a new head coach. It was the bad 4th season that has many giving up.

In year 5, we don't have a bad loss. A heartbreaking loss on the road to Colorado where we looked to be the better team is fresh on our minds. Aranda can't make the icing field goal or keep our RB from fumbling while crossing the goal line in OT. Without either, we're potentially 3-1 right now with a competitive team.

On the plus side, our recruiting has been improving and we seem to be in the NIL game now. I'm hoping this year's team is good enough to get into the bowl picture so that we don't lose all momentum.

I'm forever thankful to Aranda for the magical 2021 season which isn't too long ago and hope he can turn things around.
Take that condescending trolling horse **** somewhere else.


??
Daveisabovereproach
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you know your team is in the dumps when you have a football game in less than 24 hours, and the hottest thread on your team's message board is about the old coach that last coached here five years ago
FLBear5630
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Daveisabovereproach said:

you know your team is in the dumps when you have a football game in less than 24 hours, and the hottest thread on your team's message board is about the old coach that last coached here five years ago


You got that right. Especially when our 2 losses were both competitive on the road.
IowaBear
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Whether they were competitive or not is completely irrelevant. Unless of course your one of the "moral victories yay club" I think it's safe to say darn near 100% of this board likes Dave Aranda the person.. Dave Aranda the coach…
We've reached the point in Dave Arandas tenure where the only think that matters is W/L's. The dude is 5-20 in his last 25 games and 2 of those are FCS wins. We haven't beaten a P4 team at home in 2 years. I could keep listing embarrassing facts but I think you get the point. If your a fan that's ok with those things than so be it. But some of us actually appreciate Wins not moral victories. And right now Dave Aranda is a loser. Lucky for him he's got 8 games to put a dent in that narrative.
Edit** I may be a bit off on his record over the last 25 but my point still stands the last 2 plus years have been terrible and there's a clear trend
BBWCBear
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Chuckroast said:

PartyBear said:

Bottom line. Rhule and Aranda are both about .500 college HCs over a good several year sample. Rhule now in year 9 and Aranda in year 5 to be exact.


Can't argue with that. Rhule's sugar bowl team was in no way dominant and won mostly by smoke and mirrors in an extremely down conference year. He then followed that with a very mediocre year and bolted. I'm sure he saw the writing on the wall. I was not sad to see him go.

I believe Aranda's sugar bowl champion team was far and away the best team we have had since the Briles era. It's just too bad that we have been in a downward spiral ever since. I really like Aranda and was hoping he could right the ship.

I don't think we have to be world beaters to have a chance to win our conference, so at least there's always hope with the dawn of a new season.




"so at least there's always hope with the dawn of a new season".
Baylor has had a litany of "screw the pooch" moments in its entire history that it has pretty much numbed any optimism or euphoria.

FLBear5630
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IowaBear said:

Whether they were competitive or not is completely irrelevant. Unless of course your one of the "moral victories yay club" I think it's safe to say darn near 100% of this board likes Dave Aranda the person.. Dave Aranda the coach…
We've reached the point in Dave Arandas tenure where the only think that matters is W/L's. The dude is 5-20 in his last 25 games and 2 of those are FCS wins. We haven't beaten a P4 team at home in 2 years. I could keep listing embarrassing facts but I think you get the point. If your a fan that's ok with those things than so be it. But some of us actually appreciate Wins not moral victories. And right now Dave Aranda is a loser. Lucky for him he's got 8 games to put a dent in that narrative.
Edit** I may be a bit off on his record over the last 25 but my point still stands the last 2 plus years have been terrible and there's a clear trend
Can we focus on this season? BU is not firing the guy mid-season, especially in Game 5. We have been competitive in both losses and being competitive on the road does NOT get a Coach fired. We are 1 play from 3-1 with our only loss to #10 on the road. That is not fire the guy world. Lose a few more, have an embarrassing loss, or have a scandal breaking law than you are in fire the Coach now world.

While we still have a competitive, bowl eligible team let's talk about how we win. It is WELL DOCUMENTED your views on Aranda. You want him gone now, got it.

Now, I am going to watch us beat BYU.
 
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