The Importance of Baylor Making a Statement against No. 22 BYU on Saturday
Baylor’s (2-2, 0-1) matchup on Saturday against No. 22 BYU (4-0, 1-0) feels like one of the more important games for the program in recent memory.
With fifth-year head coach Dave Aranda firmly on the hot seat this fall, a loss as three-point favorites to the Cougars would have the Bears staring down the barrel of a 2-4 start with a trip to Ames versus a likely top-15 Iowa State (3-0) squad looming next weekend.
Aside from bowl aspirations hanging in the balance, a win against No. 22 BYU would give Aranda and Baylor their first statement victory in quite some time. It’d be the first ranked win since the 2022 Sugar Bowl over No. 8 Ole Miss and the first ranked win at McLane Stadium since November 2021 versus No. 8 Oklahoma.
Since the magical 2021 season that featured a program record in wins (12), Aranda’s Bears have gone 11-18 overall, 6-10 at home and 7-14 against Power Four opponents. The expectation in order for Aranda to keep his job in 2025 is that he’ll need to win at least six games and make a bowl game this fall.
Had Baylor hung on last weekend in Boulder against Colorado, the vibes surrounding the team would likely be completely different, at least from the outside looking in. Had the loss to Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes not been so gut-wrenching, maybe there’d be less of a microscope on how Aranda and Co. will respond on Saturday against No. 22 BYU.
But the fashion in which the Bears lost – a missed field goal in the final minutes, a successful Hail Mary and a fumble at the goal line – it feels almost improbable to recover from, considering what we’ve seen from them over the last two seasons.
However, Aranda mentioned in his weekly press conference on Monday that he doesn’t believe giving up will be the case with this year’s squad.
"That is not something I feel is going to happen with this team; I feel the overall sense of urgency to get it right,” he said. “We're a resilient bunch; the guys fight for what they believe in, and I know they believe in us.”
Obviously, the fanbase has legitimate reasons to be skeptical of what Aranda has to say because of the past two disappointing seasons and the last-second loss to Colorado. The players, however, share a sentiment similar to that of their head coach.
"Hopefully, everybody, including the fans back at home watching, realizes what this team is capable of," linebacker Keaton Thomas (RSo.) told the media on Tuesday. "[Monday] was a great day. Everybody's feeling good. We have a great opportunity to play a really good team this weekend, so we're just looking forward to Saturday."
Wide receiver Hal Presley (Sr.) added to that, saying, “We moved on because if you dwell on the loss, it's going to fall into this week, and we need to win. It's gone. We were a little hurt Monday, but we talked about it and got it out the window, and we're onto the next."
Whether the Bears can rebound against the undefeated Cougars will be revealed on the field this Saturday. Until then, we’re left wondering which team will show up this weekend.
One thing is for certain, however: this year’s team has improved on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. Through four games, the Bears are fifth in the conference in fewest points allowed (67) and fewest yards allowed per game (280.8) and are tied for first in sacks (12).
Since Sawyer Robertson (RJr.) took over as the starting quarterback against Air Force, the Bears have put up 62 total points in two games. In that span, Robertson has scored four touchdowns and hasn’t registered a turnover.
As for bowl aspirations, the remaining schedule post-Iowa State doesn’t appear as daunting as it once did. That doesn’t necessarily mean Baylor will be favored in most of those games, but plenty of those are toss-ups that could go either way.
The middle stretch of the schedule features a road trip to Lubbock versus Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0) and home games against No. 20 Oklahoma State (3-1, 1-0) and rival TCU (2-2, 0-1). To varying degrees, each of those three teams have underperformed so far this fall.
After a bye week, Baylor will travel to take on West Virginia (2-2, 1-0). While the Bears have yet to win in Morgantown, the Mountaineers aren’t juggernauts. To cap off the season, Houston (1-3, 0-1) and Kansas (1-3, 0-1) are probably the two most winnable games on paper.
Picking up three wins out of that remaining schedule feels much more achievable than being forced to go 4-2 with Baylor’s backs to the wall. Before it even comes to that, though, it starts this weekend against the No. 22 Cougars, where Aranda’s Bears must make a statement and get this season back on an upward trajectory.