Aberzombie1892 said:

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Baylor has no shot at the Cotton Bowl. If Baylor wins the Big 12, it's going to the Sugar Bowl, and, if Baylor beats Texas and Kansas and loses to OU, it will probably be ranked outside the top 12. That doesn't even contemplate whether there would be an at-large P5 ranked higher than Baylor - something that appears to be a foregone conclusion at this point.

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Don't see why not. if OU does not get in to the CFP. that means 12-1 PAC-12 is likely there with 13-0 LSU, tOSU and Clemson.

The line-up is then:

Rose Utah as Pac-12 runner up v. PSU as second best Big10
Sugar OU v. GA as SEC runner up.
Orange Wake as second best ACC v. Bama as SEC third
Cotton ??? v. Group of 5.

??? would be 10-2 Florida, 11-2 (at best) Minnesota, 10-3 (at best) Wisconsin or 9-3 (at best) Michigan, or 11-2 BU.

Our P-5 wins would likely be over 8-4 OSU, 8-4 ISU, 7-5 KSU, 7-5 UT and 6-6 TCU, 4-8 Tech, 4- 8 WVU and 3-9 KU. Our losses would be twice to a number 5 or 6 OU, hopefully both close.

Florida P-5 wins would likely be 8-4 Auburn, 8-4 Miami, 7-5 Ky, 6-6 Tenn, 6-6 Mizzou, 6-6 FSU, 4-8 S. Car., and 3-9 Vandy. Florida losses by 14 at #1 or 2 LSU and by 7 neutral site to a #7 or 8 Georgia.

Wisconsin p-5 wins would be 10-2 Minn, 9-3 Iowa, 9-3 Mich, 6-6 MSU, 5-7 Neb, 4-8 Purdue and 2-10 Northwestern. Lost badly at #1/2 tOSU (hopefully twice) and close loss to an improved but only average Illinois. Better top end wins,but one more loss to an average team and not a very deep schedule.

Minnesota P-5 wins would be 10-2 PSU, 9-3 Wisc, 7-5 Illinois, 5-7 Nebraska, 4-8 Purdue, 3-9 Maryland, 2-10 Rutgers and 2-10 Northwestern. Losses at Iowa and to #1/2 tOSU. Again, better top end wins but only 3 of them.

Michigan p-5 wins would be 10-2 Notre Dame, 9-3 Iowa, 8-4 Indiana, 7-5 Illinois, 6-6 MSU, 3-9 Maryland, 2-10 Rutgers with a blow out loss to Wisconsin, loss to PSU and tOSU.
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Pretty similar resumes. Cotton Bowl would probably lobby for us.

New Years Six
Fiesta Bowl - semifinal
Peach Bowl - semifinal
Sugar Bowl - SEC #1 vs Big 12 #1
Rose Bowl - PAC #1 vs B1G #1
Orange Bowl - ACC #1 vs SEC/B1G/ND
Cotton Bowl - G5 bid vs at large

If Oklahoma makes the CFP, there is no way for Baylor to make the Cotton Bowl since:
1. The team that loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game is going to the Sugar Bowl period.
2. Baylor would have to lose to both Texas and Kansas to not make the Big 12 title game, and, if Baylor lost to both Texas and Kansas, it has no shot at being ranked in the final CFP top #12.

If Baylor wins out, it's going to the Sugar Bowl as the #1 Big 12 team.

If Oklahoma wins out and doesn't make the CFP, it's going to the Sugar Bowl as the #1 Big 12 team. Given that Baylor was ranked #13 prior to losing to Oklahoma and would lose again to Oklahoma in this scenario, there are not many teams currently ranked above Baylor that would fall below Baylor before the final CFP rankings.

Hypothetically speaking, Baylor could be ranked anywhere from #14-17 in the rankings revealed today, and, if Baylor beats Texas, Texas will have 5 losses and virtually no chance of being ranked in the final CFP rankings, and, assuming Baylor beats Texas and Kansas, Baylor would not move up much in the rankings due to neither of those wins being of a high quality. Another loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game would move Baylor down in the rankings, and, as a result, it wouldn't be too surprising to see Baylor ranked #13-16 in the final CFP rankings with an 11-2 record. If this seems unbelievable, 2018 11-2 Washington State didn't play any P5s out of conference and finished at #13 in the final CFP rankings - behind 9-3 Penn State, 9-3 LSU, 9-3 Florida, and 10-3 Washington. They would have made a NY6 bowl if they had been ranked one spot higher. Following the approach that was established last season, it would be unlikely that Baylor would be ranked above all of the teams with one more loss than it has, so, if Baylor has 2 losses, expect several 3 loss teams that played P5s out of conference to be in front in the final rankings.

Long story short, it's not happening.

LTbear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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This dude seems like an idiot

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He tweets a lot of dumb stuff

Cotton would be nice, but I still have nightmares of the Mich State game. The OU game reminded me a lot of the Cotton Bowl.

LTbear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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This dude seems like an idiot

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I read that tweet hearing a Sally Struthers voice sobbing through a Save the Children commercial

LTbear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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This dude seems like an idiot

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I bet he bleeds red and white. No, wait....

historian said:

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LTbear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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This dude seems like an idiot

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I bet he bleeds red and white. No, wait....

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Are y'all overlooking the fact that Oregon lost to Auburn this year?

I'm just making a lame joke about Alabama fans including those in the media.

He's got BU vs Wash in Alamo

I can think of other bowls I would prefer but I'm OK with that. I don't think it will be the shootout it was last time.

Alamo Bowl wouldn't want that. Thats a rematch..a distant one nonetheless

I wondered about that. It would make more sense to have at least one different team. I'd prefer Utah or Oregon even though we already have both on our future schedules.

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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historian said:

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LTbear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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This dude seems like an idiot

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I bet he bleeds red and white. No, wait....

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Are y'all overlooking the fact that Oregon lost to Auburn this year?

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I'm calling the tweeter an idiot for believing Alabama with a weakass schedule, one top 25 win, and no conference title would be a stronger playoff team than a conference champion Oregon that would be fresh off a top 10 win and 12 straight wins.

BiPolarBear said:

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BellCountyBear said:

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I'd like a chance at redemption in the Cotton.

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It goes further back than just the Michigan State game in 2015. I was in the Cotton Bowl when we lost to Penn State in 1975 and then again when we lost to Alabama in 1981. We are 0 and 3 in Cotton Bowl games and I would like to see us win it just once while I am still on this earth.

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Did I say anything about Michigan State? I just want to win the Cotton because it's the Cotton.

Memphis is good. And they would be my next pick for expansion as well. Should have added them a couple years ago while they were on the rise, as long as we were going with the goofy CCG.

FudgePac will probably knock themsevles out of CFP.. Seems to be their way, and nobody really wants them in anyway. Media would love to make room for more SEC SEC SEC!

I'm in Florida, and I go lethal when I hear SECSECSEC.SUCSUCSUC!

And when we lost to gawdawful, nasty fans UCF, my hernia got caught in my ulcer!

Just go to a bowl and beat **** out of somebody!

If we can't get the Sugar Bowl, I would prefer to play a bigger brand in a slightly lesser bowl like the Alamo Bowl than play a smaller brand in a bigger bowl like the Cotton. Don't get me wrong, Memphis/Cincinnati are both very good teams and would be a challenge, just feel like we would have everything to lose and nothing to gain in a matchup like that, i.e. the power 5 vs. group of 5 distinction. Plus, I still have nightmares from the Fiesta Bowl in 2013.

However, a win over a Pac 12 team with a history like USC (although somewhat middling this year), I think would establish some solid momentum going into next year and would put a little more positive national attention on Baylor, which we can always use.

Can we get Vanderbilt bowl eligible..i like how we match up against them!

In 1985 Baylor beat the Trojans in Cali.

guadalupeoso said:

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If we can't get the Sugar Bowl, I would prefer to play a bigger brand in a slightly lesser bowl like the Alamo Bowl than play a smaller brand in a bigger bowl like the Cotton. Don't get me wrong, Memphis/Cincinnati are both very good teams and would be a challenge, just feel like we would have everything to lose and nothing to gain in a matchup like that, i.e. the power 5 vs. group of 5 distinction. Plus, I still have nightmares from the Fiesta Bowl in 2013.

However, a win over a Pac 12 team with a history like USC (although somewhat middling this year), I think would establish some solid momentum going into next year and would put a little more positive national attention on Baylor, which we can always use.

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Agreed.

And, again, Baylor has no path to the Cotton Bowl, so there is no real point in focusing on that anyway, and, unless the wheels completely fall off during the final two regular season games, the expected outcome should be either the Alamo Bowl or Sugar Bowl.

historian said:

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In 1985 Baylor beat the Trojans in Cali.

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That USC team finished 6-6. They weren't that great.

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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historian said:

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In 1985 Baylor beat the Trojans in Cali.

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That USC team finished 6-6. They weren't that great.

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Much like LSU's win in Austin this year. USC was ranked #3 at the time.

I was there. USC was ranked #2 or #3. What a stunned crowd! It was such fun.

sanfranciscobear said:

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I was there. USC was ranked #2 or #3. What a stunned crowd! It was such fun.

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Just shows how little meaning early season polls mean. True it was a stunning win. One I'd give anything for today but the fact is USC wasn't that good and the loss to them in Waco was simply really really unimaginal.

My uncle was the Bear trainer for Chamber back then and was at the game as well. Said it was incredible to see that unenthusiastic of a crowd at such a historic program.

6 teams currently bowl eligible.

TCU has to beat either OU or WVa to get in.

I could see Tech, WVa and Ku being the ones left out.

I don't think the Cotton is right unless we finish third, think 2nd place B12 goes to the Alamo, 3rd to the Cotton, I thought...