DanaDane said:

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LTbear said:

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DanaDane said:

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The argument for Utah not beating anyone beat being "dominant" as the reason they are #5 is kind of ironic since it was the exact opposite argument they used against us in 2014 when they said the scoring margin and dominance didn't matter.

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They've openly acknowledged that game control is factored in this year, while saying straight-up margin of victory isn't.

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And yet have never been able to define "game control" just like they can't define "eye test". In other words, it's their way of being able to pick the team they want to pick.

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They aren't going to define "game control", but the following three questions are a good way of understanding it at a high level:
1. Controlling for the quality of the opponent, what was the score at halftime?
2. Controlling for the quality of the opponent, what was the score at the beginning of the fourth quarter?
3. Controlling for the quality of the opponent, did the team have to score with its last possession of the football (or 2) in order to win the game?

For example, if Baylor defeats OU this weekend by scoring at the last minute with Baylor's last possession of the football, it wouldn't hurt Baylor's game control since OU is a top 10 opponent and thus is of a high quality. In contrast, if Baylor needs to score with its last possession of the football against WVU, it hurts Baylor's game control since WVU is not of a high quality so score should not have been close.

historian said:

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Much higher than I expected! WOW!

This seems to indicate that if we win Saturday, we will be in the playoffs. Totally unexpected!

WOW!

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Who hurt you when you were a kid? Everyone expected us to be 7th. This was no surprise.

historian said:

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Does anyone seriously believe that Clemson will lose?

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Clemson ain't losing. They're in a horrible conference, but they're a great team who had one close call this year. They're good enough to win the whole thing again.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/

ScottS said:

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Pea Weevil said:

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Somebody please bring the green "We will win!" sign to the game. It worked in the past.

Pea Weevil

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This X 1,000

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It didn't work on it's most recent appearance. Time to retire.

Dman said:

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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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historian said:

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Much higher than I expected! WOW!

This seems to indicate that if we win Saturday, we will be in the playoffs. Totally unexpected!


WOW!

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Who hurt you when you were a kid? Everyone expected us to be 7th. This was no surprise.

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Such a needless petty response to an otherwise positive and excited Baylor fans post. Who was hurt as a child?

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No, it's not. I'm tired of people around here playing the victim, always looking for the disrespect card. Yesterday's reveal was not surprising to anyone who follows this. We all knew we would be 7th. We're 7th. Quit acting like there are nefarious people in back rooms trying to put us 13th or lower.

EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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Dman said:

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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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historian said:

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Much higher than I expected! WOW!

This seems to indicate that if we win Saturday, we will be in the playoffs. Totally unexpected!


WOW!

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Who hurt you when you were a kid? Everyone expected us to be 7th. This was no surprise.

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Such a needless petty response to an otherwise positive and excited Baylor fans post. Who was hurt as a child?

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No, it's not. I'm tired of people around here playing the victim, always looking for the disrespect card. Yesterday's reveal was not surprising to anyone who follows this. We all knew we would be 7th. We're 7th. Quit acting like there are nefarious people in back rooms trying to put us 13th or lower.

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Whether you were surprised or not, we have been ranked a bit lower than most people would have thought the entire season. It is surprising to be 7th. I would have thought 8 or 9. However it's great that we are ranked where we should be.

boognish_bear said:

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I remember a team that thought it was beneath them to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl.

Baylorbears111 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I remember a team that thought it was beneath them to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl.

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If Memphis is losing or has lost their coach they may be a little distracted.

Cotton Bowl against Memphis (who was close to going undefeated) would be one of Baylor's best ever bowl appearances. How that is disrespectful is beyond me.

I get that we want respect, but way back when I (yes tooting my own horn) predicted we'd only lose once, to OU, as we did, I think we all had more reasonable goals for this season. Heck Rhule's goals were nothing near playoffs.

This team has overachieved, in a bunch of close nailbiters. That's what anyone who has watched every game this season thinks. Except Baylor fans, which have turned out to think our team should be getting the respect Bama gets.

ODDS FROM FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM (LISTEDTEAMS WITH 1% OR GREATER ODDS ONLY)

MAKE THE PLAYOFF (CURRENTLY)
93% - Clemson (12-0)
84% - Ohio State (12-0)
63% - LSU (12-0)
50% - Oklahoma (11-1)
45% - Georgia (11-1)
34% - Utah (11-1)
22% - Baylor (11-1)
7% - Wisconsin (10-2)
2% - Oregon (10-2)

MAKE THE PLAYOFF (IF THEY WIN THE CCG)
>99% - Clemson
>99% - Georgia
>99% - Ohio State
>99% - LSU
79% - Oklahoma
60% - Baylor
60% - Utah
31% - Wisconsin
3% - Oregon

MAKE THE PLAYOFF (IF THEY LOSE THE CCG)
33% - Ohio State
20% - Clemson
14% - LSU
4% - Georgia

ODDS FOR 4TH SPOT (IF LSU, Ohio State, & Clemson win)
Baylor/Utah win
72% - Utah
26% - Baylor

Oklahoma/Utah win
59% - Oklahoma
41% - Utah

Baylor/Oregon win
92% - Baylor
7% - Georgia

Oklahoma/Oregon win
98% - Oklahoma
2% - Georgia

ODDS FOR 4TH SPOT (If Georgia, Ohio State, & Clemson win)
Baylor/Utah win
64% - Utah
27% - Baylor
9% - LSU

Oklahoma/Utah win
55% - Oklahoma
39% - Utah
6% - LSU

Baylor/Oregon win
80% - Baylor
19% - LSU

Oklahoma/Oregon win
92% - Oklahoma
8% - LSU

Considering in August we were hoping for the Alamo Bowl, any NY6 bowl sounds great. Also, being in Texas means a lot more Baylor fans will have a chance to attend.

Baylor/Oregon/LSU

Baylorbears111 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I remember a team that thought it was beneath them to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl.

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FWIW...I think Memphis is a hell of a football team and I would not underestimate them if we played them. Yes...the memories of UCF are still fresh in mind.

But as a fan....I personally would not be as excited about a matchup against Memphis as I would some other potential matchups.

Since the "eye test" seems to be a factor in ranking decisions I think anything we can do to lift the perceived strength and reputation of our program will be beneficial to us in the years ahead. It certainly helped TCU's perception when they went to the Rose Bowl and knocked off an undefeated Wisconsin.

I don't see much upside in a Memphis matchup. If we were to win I think the prevailing thought would be "oh nice....did you see Baylor beat the best G5 team." Of course if we lost...."see...I knew Baylor wasn't for real this whole time."

I'd like to get matched up with a big name P5 Top 10 program. I understand it would be a more challenging game and increase our chances of not winning....but I just want to see where we stack up. We got so damn close against Mich St. I want to climb that mountain.

Didn't Utah get left out of the 1 vs 2 in 2004 despite an undefeated season?

The best way for Baylor to pass the "eye test" is to beat OU soundly, doing to them what we did to Texas & Kansas (& OU for a half). We may not win by 55, but we should be able to win by at least 2 scores. The more complete the thumping we give them, the more we will silence the critics--at least of anything that appears substantial.

ScottS said:

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Didn't Utah get left out of the 1 vs 2 in 2004 despite an undefeated season?

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Back then Utah was not P5. Seems I recall Cincinnati and TCU getting the shaft around that time period as well.

historian said:

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The best way for Baylor to pass the "eye test" is to beat OU soundly, dong to them what we did to Texas & Kansas (& OU for a half). We may not win by 55, but we should be able to win by at least 2 scores. The more complete the thumping we give them, the more we will silence the critics--at least of anything that appears substantial.

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You had me at "dong to them". +1

Memphis would be a lame bowl opponent. I don't care if we get smashed. I want the Playoff vs Ohio State or LSU or the Sugar Bowl vs Bama or Georgia. Gotta play the best to be the best.

I think we end up in the Sugar Bowl regardless of the results on Saturday.

Win and get left out of the playoff - Sugar
Loss and OU gets in (which will likely happen) - Sugar

NOLA on New Years; hell yea

Jacques Strap said:

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historian said:

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The best way for Baylor to pass the "eye test" is to beat OU soundly, dong to them what we did to Texas & Kansas (& OU for a half). We may not win by 55, but we should be able to win by at least 2 scores. The more complete the thumping we give them, the more we will silence the critics--at least of anything that appears substantial.

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You had me at "dong to them". +1

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It's time to retire the "We Are Going to Win" sign and now adopt the "We Are Going to Dong You" signs.

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeey....Dong'em Bears!

corrected

insomnia last night

DST said:

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cyberbear said:

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No one. Not LSU. Not OSU. should make it in on a loss.

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You're wrong.

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Win your conference.

cyberbear said:

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DST said:

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cyberbear said:

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No one. Not LSU. Not OSU. should make it in on a loss.

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You're wrong.

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Win your conference.

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Not a pre-requisite. Be one of the four best teams.

Yea, but by whose definition? That is a very subjective thing and the committee cannot be trusted to get it right. They favor the blue bloods & SEC too much.

NATIONAL STATISTICAL RANKINGS FOR P5 TEAMS WITH 1 OR LESS LOSSES

Note: Rankings are from the 130 FBS teams.

SCORING OFFENSE
1. Ohio State - 49.9
2. LSU - 48.7
4. Clemson - 45.3
5. Oklahoma - 44.3
15. Baylor - 36.2
18. Utah - 32.6
40. Georgia - 32.9

TOTAL OFFENSE
1. Oklahoma - 564.3
2. LSU - 560.5
3. Clemson - 541.8
5. Ohio State - 534.3
25. Utah - 453.6
33. Baylor - 445.1
55. Georgia - 420.6

PASSING OFFENSE
2. LSU - 390.0
16. Oklahoma - 304.3
25. Clemson - 285.3
41. Baylor - 258.9
45. Ohio State - 253.7
60. Utah - 239.0
76. Georgia - 220.6

RUSHING OFFENSE
4. Ohio State - 280.6
9. Oklahoma - 260.0
10. Clemson - 256.4
23. Utah - 214.6
33. Georgia - 200.0
41. Baylor - 186.2
57. LSU - 170.5

SCORING DEFENSE
1. Clemson - 10.1
2. Georgia - 10.4
3. Utah - 11.3
4. Ohio State - 11.8
13. Baylor - 18.4
31. LSU - 22.1
52. Oklahoma - 24.7

TOTAL DEFENSE
1. Ohio State - 232.3
2. Clemson - 232.8
3. Utah - 241.6
4. Georgia - 257.0
26. Oklahoma - 336.1
35. LSU - 345.9
39. Baylor - 352.8

PASSING DEFENSE
1. Clemson - 126.5
2. Ohio State - 141.1
14. Utah - 185.3
15. Georgia - 186.0
22. Oklahoma - 195.9
43. Baylor - 209.1
56. LSU - 221.4

RUSHING DEFENSE
1. Utah - 56.3
2. Georgia - 71.0
4. Ohio State - 91.2
11. Clemson - 106.3
28. LSU - 124.5
48. Oklahoma - 140.2
51. Baylor - 143.7

TEAM PASSING EFFICIENCY
3. Oklahoma - 197.3
4. LSU - 197.0
5. Ohio State - 189.0
6. Utah - 183.7
18. Clemson - 158.3
23. Baylor - 152.1
36. Georgia - 147.7

TEAM PASSING EFFICIENCY DEFENSE
1. Clemson - 89.4
2. Ohio State - 92.1
3. Georgia - 106.7
4. Utah - 107.5
8. Baylor - 109.8
21. LSU - 115.0
47. Oklahoma - 128.2

TEAM TACKLES FOR LOSS
2. Ohio State - 111
6. Clemson - 99
19. Baylor - 88
21. Oklahoma - 86
33. LSU - 80
69. Utah - 70
84. Georgia - 66

TEAM TACKLES FOR LOSS ALLOWED
9. Georgia - 50
12. Clemson - 52
34. LSU - 61
37. Oklahoma - 62
43. Utah - 64
52. Ohio State - 66
83. Baylor - 74

TEAM SACKS
2. Ohio State - 49
9. Baylor - 40
18. Clemson - 35
37. LSU - 30
44. Oklahoma - 29
44. Utah - 29
63. Georgia - 26

TEAM SACKS ALLOWED
3. Georgia - 9
4. Clemson - 11
14. Utah - 15
53. Oklahoma - 22
72. Ohio State - 26
77. LSU - 27
95. Baylor - 29

TURNOVERS FORCED
2. Baylor - 28
6. Clemson - 25
6. Ohio State - 25
23. Utah - 21
45. LSU - 18
112. Georgia - 13
121. Oklahoma - 11

TURNOVERS LOST
8. Georgia - 11
8. Utah - 11
15. LSU - 12
19. Ohio State - 13
31. Clemson - 14
50. Baylor - 16
50. Oklahoma - 16

FEWEST PENALTY YARDS PER GAME
25. Clemson - 45.6
42. Georgia - 48.8
72. Baylor - 54.3
73. Ohio State - 54.4
93. LSU - 60.3
108. Utah - 63.4
129. Oklahoma - 77.2

NET PUNTING AVERAGE
4. Georgia - 42.9
28. Oklahoma - 40.4
31. Clemson - 40.3
48. Ohio State - 39.0
63. Utah - 38.6
70. Baylor - 38.2
76. LSU - 37.8

3RD DOWN CONVERSION %
1. Ohio State - 58.3
4. Oklahoma - 52.0
8. LSU - 50.0
9. Utah - 49.7
23. Clemson - 46.3
33. Georgia - 43.7
35. Baylor - 43.5

3RD DOWN CONVERSION % DEFENSE
3. Ohio State - 27.1
5. Clemson - 27.8
6. Georgia - 28.0
10. Utah - 29.4
12. LSU - 30.7
13. Oklahoma - 31.1
66. Baylor - 39.3

I notice that we are pretty good in most areas & that Utah is above is in many of them. But they still have not played anyone--that's the argument used against us in 2019 & back when we had the #1 offense (or top 5) in almost every category.

Very interesting.

EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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historian said:

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Much higher than I expected! WOW!

This seems to indicate that if we win Saturday, we will be in the playoffs. Totally unexpected!

WOW!

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Who hurt you when you were a kid? Everyone expected us to be 7th. This was no surprise.

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We were previously ranked 14 then 9 after beating Texas. No one expected us to be jump up to #7 after beating Kansas. That national media has little respect for the Big 12--especially this year. They keep talking about how the conference is down for some reason.

The only indication I see of that is that we will have 6 teams in bowl games instead of the usual 7. Yes, we don't have as many ranked teams but so much of what the committee does is arbitrary anyway. That does not mean much.

historian said:

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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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historian said:

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Much higher than I expected! WOW!

This seems to indicate that if we win Saturday, we will be in the playoffs. Totally unexpected!

WOW!

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Who hurt you when you were a kid? Everyone expected us to be 7th. This was no surprise.

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We were previously ranked 14 then 9 after beating Texas. No one expected us to be jump up to #7 after beating Kansas. That national media has little respect for the Big 12--especially this year. They keep talking about how the conference is down for some reason.

The only indication I see of that is that we will have 6 teams in bowl games instead of the usual 7. Yes, we don't have as many ranked teams but so much of what the committee does is arbitrary anyway. That does not mean much.

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Down year for the ACC...they got 10 out of 14 going to bowl games?

I was referring to talk I've heard that the Big 12 was down, not the ACC. And I did not say I agreed with those "experts."

Praying that on Dec. 8th, Baylor would earn the final #4 ranking in the CFP Poll.

historian said:

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I was referring to talk I've heard that the Big 12 was down, not the ACC. And I did not say I agreed with those "experts."

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I was just asking (non sarcastically). I know a lot of people say the ACC is so garbage this year because they only have 1 contender, but 10/14 teams going bowling. I suppose bowl record could indicate how the stack up