This run is an anomaly, but that's the tourney. And that's why it's fun to watch.

bear2be2 said:

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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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That we need to always take the postseason with a grain of salt. Yes, we should do better. Yes, you are judged by your performance in the NCAA.

But NC State needed to win 5 games in the ACC tourney just to get in the NCAA tourney, and they are now in the Elite Eight. Is their program in better shape than ours? Who knows? I would say no. How about Miami after last year? What did they do after their Final Four run, even with a majority of that team returning?

Teams can go on runs. Or teams can have a bad game or shoot poorly. You've got to look at the program overall. It sucks that we know that we are as good or better than Clemson or NC State or Alabama. But that's the way the tournament goes. Kansas hasn't made it to the second weekend in the last two years. **** happens.

Getting to the tournament every year can increase the odds that we will get upset in the first round but it will also give us more chances to make another run.

But anyone who tells you that Drew is on a short leash or that we're in the parking lot while the Big 12 train is taking off is simply a troll.

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This is true of one off seasons/runs. It becomes an excuse when addressing trends.

Our problem the last two years isn't necessarily that we lost in the Round of 32. It's that those teams' flaws put their ceilings at the Sweet 16. Everything about their body of work suggested they were good, not great teams.

Acknowledging those flaws and seeking solutions isn't a bad thing.

Scott Drew's not going anywhere. He's been a miracle worker for Baylor and will be here as long as he wants to. But there's nothing wrong with being frustrated at our recent tournament results.

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I felt this Baylor team's ceiling was probably the Elite 8, and had we gotten to OT versus Clemson, who knows? We may very well be playing tomorrow. It's somewhat random, and about matchups in most years, but there are some years teams just steamroll their way to the finals (see us in 2021, UConn last year, and maybe UConn this year).

In the absence of a dominant team, it really is luck/matchup dependent.

bear2be2 said:

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Mitch Henessey said:

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bear2be2 said:

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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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That we need to always take the postseason with a grain of salt. Yes, we should do better. Yes, you are judged by your performance in the NCAA.

But NC State needed to win 5 games in the ACC tourney just to get in the NCAA tourney, and they are now in the Elite Eight. Is their program in better shape than ours? Who knows? I would say no. How about Miami after last year? What did they do after their Final Four run, even with a majority of that team returning?

Teams can go on runs. Or teams can have a bad game or shoot poorly. You've got to look at the program overall. It sucks that we know that we are as good or better than Clemson or NC State or Alabama. But that's the way the tournament goes. Kansas hasn't made it to the second weekend in the last two years. **** happens.

Getting to the tournament every year can increase the odds that we will get upset in the first round but it will also give us more chances to make another run.

But anyone who tells you that Drew is on a short leash or that we're in the parking lot while the Big 12 train is taking off is simply a troll.

---

This is true of one off seasons/runs. It becomes an excuse when addressing trends.

Our problem the last two years isn't necessarily that we lost in the Round of 32. It's that those teams' flaws put their ceilings at the Sweet 16. Everything about their body of work suggested they were good, not great teams.

Acknowledging those flaws and seeking solutions isn't a bad thing.

Scott Drew's not going anywhere. He's been a miracle worker for Baylor and will be here as long as he wants to. But there's nothing wrong with being frustrated at our recent tournament results.

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I felt this Baylor team's ceiling was probably the Elite 8, and had we gotten to OT versus Clemson, who knows? We may very well be playing tomorrow. It's somewhat random, and about matchups in most years, but there are some years teams just steamroll their way to the finals (see us in 2021, UConn last year, and maybe UConn this year).

In the absence of a dominant team, it really is luck/matchup dependent.

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This team has basically been .500 in QUAD 1 games for two straight years. That means every game against a good team is a 50-50 proposition. Add in our propensity for slow starts and our inability to consistently get stops and an early exit was always the most likely result.

That's not to say that it was impossible that we could have advanced farther than we did. But our flaws were always going to make it difficult.

The teams that have consistent tournament success/win national titles don't look or play the way we have the past two seasons.

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Yep. That's fair.

Despite what we lose this off-season, I'm actually fairly optimistic on next season. We're going to take some lumps early with so many new faces (almost a given, regardless of who we get in the portal). But the way next year's team is structured, I think we have a decent shot at peaking late and being pretty dangerous come tourney time.

Mitch Henessey said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Mitch Henessey said:

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bear2be2 said:

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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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That we need to always take the postseason with a grain of salt. Yes, we should do better. Yes, you are judged by your performance in the NCAA.

But NC State needed to win 5 games in the ACC tourney just to get in the NCAA tourney, and they are now in the Elite Eight. Is their program in better shape than ours? Who knows? I would say no. How about Miami after last year? What did they do after their Final Four run, even with a majority of that team returning?

Teams can go on runs. Or teams can have a bad game or shoot poorly. You've got to look at the program overall. It sucks that we know that we are as good or better than Clemson or NC State or Alabama. But that's the way the tournament goes. Kansas hasn't made it to the second weekend in the last two years. **** happens.

Getting to the tournament every year can increase the odds that we will get upset in the first round but it will also give us more chances to make another run.

But anyone who tells you that Drew is on a short leash or that we're in the parking lot while the Big 12 train is taking off is simply a troll.

---

This is true of one off seasons/runs. It becomes an excuse when addressing trends.

Our problem the last two years isn't necessarily that we lost in the Round of 32. It's that those teams' flaws put their ceilings at the Sweet 16. Everything about their body of work suggested they were good, not great teams.

Acknowledging those flaws and seeking solutions isn't a bad thing.

Scott Drew's not going anywhere. He's been a miracle worker for Baylor and will be here as long as he wants to. But there's nothing wrong with being frustrated at our recent tournament results.

---

I felt this Baylor team's ceiling was probably the Elite 8, and had we gotten to OT versus Clemson, who knows? We may very well be playing tomorrow. It's somewhat random, and about matchups in most years, but there are some years teams just steamroll their way to the finals (see us in 2021, UConn last year, and maybe UConn this year).

In the absence of a dominant team, it really is luck/matchup dependent.

---

This team has basically been .500 in QUAD 1 games for two straight years. That means every game against a good team is a 50-50 proposition. Add in our propensity for slow starts and our inability to consistently get stops and an early exit was always the most likely result.

That's not to say that it was impossible that we could have advanced farther than we did. But our flaws were always going to make it difficult.

The teams that have consistent tournament success/win national titles don't look or play the way we have the past two seasons.

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Yep. That's fair.

Despite what we lose this off-season, I'm actually fairly optimistic on next season. We're going to take some lumps early with so many new faces (almost a given, regardless of who we get in the portal). But the way next year's team is structured, I think we have a decent shot at peaking late and being pretty dangerous come tourney time.

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I would actually agree IF we beef up the defensive staff. Needs a reset. I trust they hit the portal hard and not just for complementary parts.

I find it interesting that most basketball fans across the nation actually think that a one and done 64 team tournament will tell us who the best team is and awards them the National Championship- great tournament for fans and players alike - yes - but many years the best teams don't win it

WA Jim said:

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I find it interesting that most basketball fans across the nation actually think that a one and done 64 team tournament will tell us who the best team is and awards them the National Championship- great tournament for fans and players alike - yes - but many years the best teams don't win it

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True, but I think the last three tournament winners were indeed the best team that year (UConn, Kansas, Baylor).

BusyTarpDuster2017 said:

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WA Jim said:

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I find it interesting that most basketball fans across the nation actually think that a one and done 64 team tournament will tell us who the best team is and awards them the National Championship- great tournament for fans and players alike - yes - but many years the best teams don't win it

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True, but I think the last three tournament winners were indeed the best team that year (UConn, Kansas, Baylor).

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Wasn't UConn a 3 seed last year?

As far as the men's side goes, the NC State run is just more evidence of the parity factor in college bball. The fact is there really isn't all that much difference between the top teams and the average teams (which is what NC State was for the vast majority of the season) talent wise in many cases and every year there are at least one or two "cinderellas" that seemingly out of nowhere get it together big time in March.

I think it just means that the ACC was the best basketball conference this season and our conference was overrated.

No there is nothing wrong with a little introspection and honest self evaluation. It's wrong when it goes too far, such as attacks on Drew.

Yogi said:

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I think it just means that the ACC was the best basketball conference this season and our conference was overrated.

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Going by tournament results, maybe. If they don't win out, even that could be in doubt. Going by any other standard, no.

historian said:

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Yogi said:

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I think it just means that the ACC was the best basketball conference this season and our conference was overrated.

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Going by tournament results, maybe. If they don't win out, even that could be in doubt. Going by any other standard, no.

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The ACC was 9-3 against the Big 12 in the regular season. As much as all of us in the Big 12 want to proclaim the best conference it certainly wasn't in 2023=24 other than by metrics which were largely gamed by most of the Big 12 schools with pathetic non-conference schedules. Baylor and Kansas were the only two who played anyone out of conference.

The fact a low seed made it to the Elite 8 isn't all that unusual. During our Championship year UH beat 12 seed Oregon St in the Elite 8 to advance to the Final 4. Many people also forget the UCLA team we should have faced in the Finals had it not been for Jalen Suggs half court shot was actually an 11 seed who won at the Elite 8 and advanced to the Final Four.

But hopefully the NC State path shuts up some people who claim we should lose early in the conference tournament because you have tired legs and can't win in the NCAA tournament if you don't. And before anyone says yeah but our top reserve was injured and so we need extra time to heal I'll remind you that NC State's starters played more minutes on average than our starters did throughout the tournament. These are 18-20 year old kids, not 42 year old NBA guys. They play pickup games on campus for 3 hours on most days after they've finished a 2 hour practice.

OP, the inflammatory comments about Drew I just toss to the side. That is someone wanting to grandstand. Scott is like all other coaches and has a fault or two just like all of us but he will be here as long as he wants to coach. And if he decides to retire and wants to be the liaison for Baylor University then he should get that job too. I can't think of anyone who is a better representative.

This! I'm guilty as well of overrating the league. But I've said all along multiple schools ISU, BYU, TCU, Cincy, Tech have extremely inflated records due to playing utter garbage non cons.
Do other schools and leagues do that? Yes absolutely. But those leagues aren't viewed as the top dog. B12 likes to call itself the top conference yearly. Yet more often than not the league ****s the bed in big non con games.

The big 12 just didn't pass the eye test. I really like data and stats but something was clearly off. Tech finishing tied for 3rd in the supposed best league was a huge red flag. Barely an ounce of top end talent.

Now I will say the coaches in this league performed miracles with this collection of talent (except Bu and Tex to a lesser extent). None of the losses outside UH (who was matched athletically the prior round by an undisciplined A&M team) were flukes. All teams were thoroughly outplayed.

Byu a metric darling who just couldn't play multiple ways. A completely mediocre Tcu team that had no pop. Home teams looking like the 96' bulls and then dramatically falling off neutral and away. Bu couldn't put anything together and slept walked to third in the league. Iowa St had just a touch of offensive talent and almost won the league and ran through the tourney.

The narrative just wasn't reality.

Big12Fan2024 said:

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But hopefully the NC State path shuts up some people who claim we should lose early in the conference tournament because you have tired legs and can't win in the NCAA tournament if you don't. And before anyone says yeah but our top reserve was injured and so we need extra time to heal I'll remind you that NC State's starters…

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That was Drew that originally floated that. The fans are just piggybacking off it. I agree with you.

Quinton said:

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Big12Fan2024 said:

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But hopefully the NC State path shuts up some people who claim we should lose early in the conference tournament because you have tired legs and can't win in the NCAA tournament if you don't. And before anyone says yeah but our top reserve was injured and so we need extra time to heal I'll remind you that NC State's starters…

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That was Drew that originally floated that. The fans are just piggybacking off it. I agree with you.

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Bill Self floats that crap line too every time he loses. It's just standard coaching cope

EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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BusyTarpDuster2017 said:

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WA Jim said:

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I find it interesting that most basketball fans across the nation actually think that a one and done 64 team tournament will tell us who the best team is and awards them the National Championship- great tournament for fans and players alike - yes - but many years the best teams don't win it

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True, but I think the last three tournament winners were indeed the best team that year (UConn, Kansas, Baylor).

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Wasn't UConn a 3 seed last year?

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Actually, they were a 4 seed! I guess I'm giving them credit for how easily they whooped every team they played in the tournament. Something clicked for them and they became the best team after their seeding. I think by the end of the year, they were playing the best, better than all the teams ranked higher than them.

BusyTarpDuster2017 said:

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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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BusyTarpDuster2017 said:

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WA Jim said:

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I find it interesting that most basketball fans across the nation actually think that a one and done 64 team tournament will tell us who the best team is and awards them the National Championship- great tournament for fans and players alike - yes - but many years the best teams don't win it

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True, but I think the last three tournament winners were indeed the best team that year (UConn, Kansas, Baylor).

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Wasn't UConn a 3 seed last year?

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Actually, they were a 4 seed! I guess I'm giving them credit for how easily they whooped every team they played in the tournament. Something clicked for them and they became the best team after their seeding. I think by the end of the year, they were playing the best, better than all the teams ranked higher than them.

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They were the best team last year. They looked like the best team from October through December, had a strange lull where they started 2-6 in conference play, then only lost two games the rest of the season. They didn't figure it out after seeding. They figured it out long before that, but their body of work fully deserved the lower seeding they received.

Crazy to see how they finished conference play...who would've seen this coming

DJ Burns Jr.

2018-19: Redshirted at Tennessee.
2019-20: Winthrop (11.9 ppg)
2020-21: Winthrop (10.1 ppg)
2021-22: Winthrop (15 ppg)
2022-23: NC State (12.5 ppg)
2023-24: NC State (12.6 ppg)

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 31, 2024

If NC State is evidence of anything, it's that there's no surefire formula for making a deep run.

We don't need to overthink this. A pretty talented team got hot at the right time. They caught lightning in a bottle. Not sure there's anything else we should read into it.

Mitch Henessey said:

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If NC State is evidence of anything, it's that there's no surefire formula for making a deep run.

We don't need to overthink this. A pretty talented team got hot at the right time. They caught lightning in a bottle. Not sure there's anything else we should read into it.

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There's no sure fire formula, but NC State's team is extraordinarily experienced. It's a bunch of grown men who came together/found their stride at the right time.

Experience doesn't guarantee you success, but those that make deep runs in March almost always have it.

The two characteristics evident in the Final 4 is that you don't see an inexperienced PG and you don't see any of the four teams stocked with primarily finesse guys at the 4 and 5 positions. The tournament rewards physical play.

Since all the teams I would have wanted to win out have already departed, I'm cheering for NC State, both MBB & WBB. I like underdogs.

historian said:

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Since all the teams I would have wanted to win out have already departed, I'm cheering for NC State, both MBB & WBB. I like underdogs.

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Their men's team, in particular, is really easy to root for, beginning with Burns, who has been the darling of this year's tournament. They play good team basketball and seem to realize they're playing with house money, so they never let the gravity of their situation get to them.

It's a carefree, loose team with a surprisingly well put-together roster given their struggles during the regular season. They've had a number of guys step up in the postseason and play at a level they weren't previously, but they've got three good bigs with complementary skill sets (Burns, Diarra and Middlebrooks), a go-to guard in Horne and a three other perimeter players capable of scoring when called upon (Morsell, Taylor and O'Connell).

They really struggled in the second half of ACC play and probably should have never gotten past the ACC semifinals. But that buzzer-beating 3 that sent them to overtime against Virginia unlocked something in them that has remained unlocked since.

That's a talented team playing really well, and their resume since the end of the regular season proves it.

The winner of the NCAA tournament is the best team of the post season, period. Sometimes they happen to coincide with the best team for the year. Frequently they coincide with one of the top 3-4 teams for the year. Occasionally, they are not in the top 10 for the year, but still had the best post season. It is true of every sport. The NFL might be the most frequent "best team wins" league.

Bleed Green said:

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The winner of the NCAA tournament is the best team of the post season, period. Sometimes they happen to coincide with the best team for the year. Frequently they coincide with one of the top 3-4 teams for the year. Occasionally, they are not in the top 10 for the year, but still had the best post season. It is true of every sport. The NFL might be the most frequent "best team wins" league.

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I agree with your overall post, but disagree with the last sentence.

The NBA is the only sport where the best team wins the title 99% of the time. The only real asterisks are when a team wins by injury like the 2019 Raptors.

In the NHL a pretty good team can ride an elite goalie all the way to the Stanley Cup. Upsets happen all the time in the NHL playoffs.

In the MLB a team can ride one or two dominant pitchers all the way to a title (2001 Diamondbacks) while beating teams that on paper should be better.

The top seed in the NBA has won zero of the last 5 championships and just 3 of the last 10. They have only played in the championship series 4 of the last 10 years. Now, i guess you can have a different definition of the best, but the top seed missing the finals that many times and only winning 30% of the time makes 99% a bit off.

And when I say most frequently, I am saying it is still a long way from a 90% occurrence. I would venture to say that none of the leagues have the best team winning much more than 50-60% of the time with expanded playoffs.