Texasjeremy said:
The biggest reason not to come back is if he felt he could not improve his draft stock (with the major increase in playing time and becoming a main option its hard to believe he wouldn't)
2020 DRAFT CONTRACTS
ROUND 1
1. Anthony Edwards - 4 years, $44.3M ($20.0M guaranteed)
2. James Wiseman - 4 years, $39.6M ($17.9M guaranteed)
3. LaMelo Ball - 4 years, $35.6M ($16.1M guaranteed)
4. Patrick Williams - 4 years, $32.1M ($14.5M guaranteed)
5. Isaac Okoro - 4 years, $29.1M ($13.1M guaranteed)
6. Onyeka Okongwu - 4 years, $26.4M ($11.9M guaranteed)
7. Killian Hayes - 4 years, $24.1M ($10.9M guaranteed)
8. Obi Toppin - 4 years, $22.1M ($10.0M guaranteed)
9. Deni Avdija - 4 years, $20.3M ($9.2M guaranteed)
10. Jalen Smith - 4 years, $19.3M ($8.7M guaranteed)
11. Devin Vassell - 4 years, $18.6M ($8.3M guaranteed)
12. Tyrese Haliburton - 4 years, $17.9M ($7.9M guaranteed)
13. Kira Lewis - 4 years, $17.2M ($7.5M guaranteed)
14. Aaron Nesmith - 4 years, $16.5M ($7.1M guaranteed)
15. Cole Anthony - 4 years, $15.9M ($6.7M guaranteed)
16. Isaiah Stewart - 4 years, $15.1M ($6.4M guaranteed)
17. Aleksej Pokusevski - 4 years, $14.3M ($6.1M guaranteed)
18. Josh Green - 4 years, $13.6M ($5.8M guaranteed)
19. Saddiq Bey - 4 years, $13.0M ($5.5M guaranteed)
20. Precious Achiuwa - 4 years, $12.5M ($5.3M guaranteed)
21. Tyrese Maxey - 4 years, $12.2M ($5.1M guaranteed)
22. Zeke Nnaji - 4 years, $11.8M ($4.9M guaranteed)
23. Leandro Bolmaro - Did Not Sign
24. RJ Hampton - 4 years, $9.7M ($3.1M guaranteed)
25. Immanuel Quickley - 4 years, $10.8M ($4.3M guaranteed)
26. Payton Pritchard - 4 years, $10.4M ($4.2M guaranteed)
27. Udoka Azubuike - 4 years, $10.2M ($4.1M guaranteed)
28. Jaden McDaniels - 4 years, $10.1M ($4.0M guaranteed)
29. Malachi Flynn - 4 years, $10.0M ($4.0M guaranteed)
30. Desmond Bane - 4 years, $9.9M ($4.0M guaranteed)
ROUND 2
31. Tyrell Terry - 4 years, $6.5M ($4.6M guaranteed)
32. Vernon Carey - 4 years, $6.6M ($4.7M guaranteed)
33. Daniel Oturu - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
34. Theo Maledon - 4 years, $7.8M ($4.0M guaranteed)
35. Xavier Tillman - 4 years, $6.5M ($4.6M guaranteed)
36. Tyler Bey - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
37. Vit Krejci - Did Not Sign
38. Saben Lee - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
39. Elijah Hughes - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
40. Robert Woodard - 4 years, $6.7M ($3.0M guaranteed)
41. Tre Jones - 3 years, $4.2M ($2.4M guaranteed)
42. Nick Richards - 3 years, $4.3M ($2.5M guaranteed)
43. Jahmi'us Ramsey - 3 years, $4.3M ($2.5M guaranteed)
44. Marko Simonovic - Did Not Sign
45. Jordan Nwora - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
46. CJ Elleby - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
47. Yam Madar - Did Not Sign
48. Nico Mannion - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
49. Isaiah Joe - 3 years, $4.2M ($2.4M guaranteed)
50. Skylar Mays - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
51. Justinian Jessup - Did Not Sign
52. Kenyon Martin, Jr. - 4 years, $6.1M ($898K guaranteed)
53. Cassius Winston - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
54. Cassius Stanley - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
55. Jay Scrubb - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
56. Grant Riller - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
57. Reggie Perry - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
58. Paul Reed - 3 years, $3.9M ($609K guaranteed)
59. Jalen Harris - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
60. Sam Merrill - 2 years, $2.4M ($898K guaranteed)
Mayer's comments make me think he's well aware of the rapid drop off after the beginning of the second round and he's coming back unless he's pretty sure he makes it into that upper tier of salaries you get in 1st round and early 2d (>$1M guaranteed). Based on what I've seen I don't think he'll get 1st round or high 2nd round grade as a consensus.
Compare him to some others in mock drafts that grade players through the second round, and you'll see why. It's easy to say "he's 6' 9" and can shoot and dribble and has unique skills," but there's a lot of high upside players in this draft and there's a reason some boards don't even have him in the top 80. Others ranked ahead of him have similar upsides but don't have the risk that comes from him being a bench player last year----GMs have to look at both upside and floor.
Here are a couple players that are currently graded about where Mayer would want to be graded to return. And they are right on the edge of Mayer's floor for returning.
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/joe-wieskamp][/url]Joe Wieskamp - graded at about 45 (shot 46% from three)
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/joe-wieskamp][/url]SF | Iowa
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/joe-wieskamp][/url]
6'6"
212 lbs
Junior
21.7 yrs
18.3
PTS
8.2
REB
2.1
AST
0.4
BLK
1.2
STL
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/luka-garza][/url]Luka Garza
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/luka-garza][/url]C | Iowa
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/luka-garza][/url]
6'11"
265 lbs
Senior
22.3 yrs
27.6 PTS
10.0
REB
2.0
AST
1.8
BLK
0.8
STL
If you were making a recommendation to the GM and your job was on the line, which would you take, Mayer or one of these two? Maybe you argue Mayer has a comparable upside, but the risk is also much greater.
Also I think the 59% FT percentage might really hurt him, and is an EASY way to improve his status next year, in addition to showing he can show comparable efficiency as a starter. If you are advising an NBA team are you going to put your neck on the line for a guy that can't show he can shoot FTs much better than Shaq but at the 3, and has never started? Garza shot >70% FT last year and was > 80% one year by comparison. Maybe, but most will think twice. An NBA team has to account for the risk that his efficiency decreases as a starter, so if he can remove that risk his draft stock rises. he can also likely match or increase his 39% 3P percentage, which is where much of his value lies in the modern NBA. Almost every player on Baylor's team increased their percentage from last year, and that has been a pretty consistent trend for Baylor players in recent years because of all the work they put in, and Mayer will likely do the same.
If he's betting on himself to work hard and continue to improve, I think the stronger economic case will likely be to return.