This… the value of marquee wins cannot be overstated.

Agree Iowa. I have always thought over the years that in order to be Top 4 seed in NCAA Tourney, you have to beat at least a couple ranked teams. We beat a bunch of bad teams, which is what we have to do, but the Big 12 Conference is the weakest of the 4 conferences. We haven't beaten a ranked team yet. So beating a ranked WV team will help us move up . Then win against another ranked team later will help us move up the seeding. NCAA will not give us Top 4 seeding without a couple of ranked wins.

Utah was ranked when we beat them....

Keep in mind wins can change their value. Utah can become a Q1 win. Of course the opposite is true. WV is a fringe Q1 win and could easily move to a Q2 win. In short root for Utah, KSU, TCU, WV to win when not playing BU

IowaBear said:

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The glaring issue to date is 0 Q1 wins. We're playing incredibly well right now. However, the wins were stacking are against really bad squads. That's why we aren't moving up the seed line yet. If we beat WV, KSU, TCu no doubt the gals will move up. Getting off the 7 seed line is the key imo. Get up to a 6 gets us a much better draw. The drop off in team talent after the top 8 is pretty big. The matchup against a 3 seed in the S16 would be much more favorable

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I agree. I honestly think we can beat any of the 3 seeds as they are currently projected. The 2s I'm not nearly as confident about. Also, I'd like to also say that if we had Jana, I don't think we lose to Oregon or Indiana - and we are therefore talking about an entirely different body of work. I honestly don't think a 4 is possible unless we make an impressive, deep run in the Big 12 Tournament. The key for this team is Bella to be hitting from beyond the arc, Andrews to stop turning the ball over, and Vonlah playing aggressive. If all three are hitting at the same time, I do believe they can compete with just about anyone.

Updated today......BU moved up to a 5 seed

IowaBear said:

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Gonna be tough to get a top 4 seed and secure HC the first 2 rounds. Just not enough resume building games left.

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Help me understand. If we win out, shouldn't we surpass TCU?

Unlikely, TCU would have to completely fall apart for us to pass them on the seed line. They have much better wins. Remember who you have beaten is what matters come selection Sunday. To date our biggest win is against WV. Good win for sure but that's basically it aside from Utah.
However, we have a chance down the stretch to build a good enough resume to get a top 4 seed and host. But no chance we pass TCU seed wise

IowaBear said:

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Unlikely, TCU would have to completely fall apart for us to pass them on the seed line. They have much better wins. Remember who you have beaten is what matters come selection Sunday. To date our biggest win is against WV. Good win for sure but that's basically it aside from Utah.
However, we have a chance down the stretch to build a good enough resume to get a top 4 seed and host. But no chance we pass TCU seed wise

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Not even if we beat them twice (now and conference tournament)?

Good question. I'd still guess no. But that's operating under the assumption TXU doesn't fall apart. If Bu runs the curable until NCAAS maybe. But that ND win that TCU has is carrying a ton of weight. We seen the power of Q1 wins in the latest bracketology. We moved to a 5 by knocking off WV. We have 2 more regular season Q1 opportunities. Win both of those and I think we host

IowaBear said:

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Good question. I'd still guess no. But that's operating under the assumption TXU doesn't fall apart. If Bu runs the curable until NCAAS maybe. But that ND win that TCU has is carrying a ton of weight. We seen the power of Q1 wins in the latest bracketology. We moved to a 5 by knocking off WV. We have 2 more regular season Q1 opportunities. Win both of those and I think we host

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But I think they look at your more recent record as well. That game was almost 3 months ago. TCU hasn't shown what it would take to beat ND now over the last weeks. Probably just like the CFP. No way to know what the heck they really value.......and is it consistent from year to year? Have to just let the season play out and watch the selection show.

Concerning us, I think if we shoot decently we do have a good chance to win the next 4. But we just aren't as consistent shooting as I think we have to be to overcome a team's best night.

They value Q1 wins above everything else. I'm sure recent record matters assuming you're beating good teams. WV was our 1st good win during the girls long winning streak. Big wins in CBB carry tons of weight regardless of when they happen.
Girls have a chance to add 2 very impressive late season wins the next 2 weeks

IowaBear said:

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They value Q1 wins above everything else. I'm sure recent record matters assuming you're beating good teams. WV was our 1st good win during the girls long winning streak. Big wins in CBB carry tons of weight regardless of when they happen.
Girls have a chance to add 2 very impressive late season wins the next 2 weeks

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Probably 3 because of the tournament, possibly 4 depending on the conference seeding. Beating TCU twice would give you 2 more of your Q1 wins. I would highly doubt that if we beat TCU twice they still get to host and we don't. But that is a tall order.

You're putting too much stock in H2H and not near enough in the full resume. If BU wins out they'll host. TCU is hosting too barring a conplete meltdown. Too date BUs resume just isn't very good. That's the reality. However, as stated that can change down the stretch assuming we take advantage of the opportunities ahead

....

Updated today....still a 5 seed

MrGolfguy said:

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Updated today....still a 5 seed

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All I can assume is that Charlie did this prior to Baylor beating KSU at home, wire to wire. That is the only way you can justify KSU as a 4 seed and us at 5.

The NCAA top 16 reveal is this evening. We should be a 4.

Got Mulk? said:

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MrGolfguy said:

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Updated today....still a 5 seed

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All I can assume is that Charlie did this prior to Baylor beating KSU at home, wire to wire. That is the only way you can justify KSU as a 4 seed and us at 5.

The NCAA top 16 reveal is this evening. We should be a 4.

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It was after

Beating KSU isn't going to automatically bump the Lady bears past KSu. We're talking entire body of work. BU to date has 3 Quad 1 wins. No idea how many KSU has. We might squeak in as a 4 tonight but I bet the committee release still has the gals on the outside looking in when it comes to hosting

IowaBear said:

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Beating KSU isn't going to automatically bump the Lady bears past KSu. We're talking entire body of work. BU to date has 3 Quad 1 wins. No idea how many KSU has. We might squeak in as a 4 tonight but I bet the committee release still has the gals on the outside looking in when it comes to hosting

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KSt 25-5
BU 25-5

KSt quality opponents:

Creighton (W by 18)
Duke (L by 11)
@Utah (W by 24)
@Colo (L by 10)
IowaSt (W by 8)
TCU (W by 9)
@OkSt (L by 30)
@WV (L by 13)
BU (L by 17)

Creighton, Duke, TCU, OkSt , WV, BU are all currently ranked. Utah was ranked when they beat them.



BU quality opponents:

@Ore (L by 2)
IU (L by 8)
UNLV (W by 7)
OkSt (L by 23)
Colo (W by 14)
Utah (W by 9)
UCLA (L by 15)
@TCU (L by 5)
WV (W by 10)
@Colo (W by 22)
IowaSt (W by 15)
KSt (W by 17)

OkSt, UCLA, TCU, WV, KSt are all currently ranked. Utah was ranked when we beat them.


In most recent Bracketology (before Monday games):

Oregon is Last Four Bye and 9.
IowaSt is Last Four In and an 11.
Colorado is Next Four Out (Arizona is First Four Out).
Creighton is an 8.
Indiana is a 9.
UNLV is an 11.
OkSt is a 7.
Utah is a 7.
UCLA is a 1 and still Top Overall Seed.
TCU is a 3.
WV is a 6.

So BU is 5-5 against teams projected to make the tournament with no losses to anyone else; KSt is 4-4, plus a loss to Colorado (granted, when CU was at full strength). KSt has the more impressive OOC win (Creighton > UNLV), and KSt has the most impressive overall win (TCU), which BU has a chance to match.

Would not be surprised to see BU replace KSt on the host line this evening, but with a chance to teeter off of it if we faceplant against Toad.

Thursday's NCAA top-16 seed reveal:

Spokane 1
1. UCLA
2. LSU
3. UNC
4. Kansas State

Birmingham 2
1. Texas
2. NC State
3. TCU
4. Ohio State

Spokane 3
1. USC
2. UConn
3. Duke
4. Kentucky

Birmingham 4
1. Notre Dame
2 South Carolina
3. Tennessee
4. Oklahoma

— ESPN Women's Hoops (@ESPN_WomenHoop) February 27, 2025

I am calling my shot k state loses to Iowa state next game and even lose first big 12 tournament game. No Ayoka Lee until ncaa tournament possibly.

whitetrash said:

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IowaBear said:

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Beating KSU isn't going to automatically bump the Lady bears past KSu. We're talking entire body of work. BU to date has 3 Quad 1 wins. No idea how many KSU has. We might squeak in as a 4 tonight but I bet the committee release still has the gals on the outside looking in when it comes to hosting

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KSt 25-5
BU 25-5

KSt quality opponents:

Creighton (W by 18)
Duke (L by 11)
@Utah (W by 24)
@Colo (L by 10)
IowaSt (W by 8)
TCU (W by 9)
@OkSt (L by 30)
@WV (L by 13)
BU (L by 17)

Creighton, Duke, TCU, OkSt , WV, BU are all currently ranked. Utah was ranked when they beat them.



BU quality opponents:

@Ore (L by 2)
IU (L by 8)
UNLV (W by 7)
OkSt (L by 23)
Colo (W by 14)
Utah (W by 9)
UCLA (L by 15)
@TCU (L by 5)
WV (W by 10)
@Colo (W by 22)
IowaSt (W by 15)
KSt (W by 17)

OkSt, UCLA, TCU, WV, KSt are all currently ranked. Utah was ranked when we beat them.


In most recent Bracketology (before Monday games):

Oregon is Last Four Bye and 9.
IowaSt is Last Four In and an 11.
Colorado is Next Four Out (Arizona is First Four Out).
Creighton is an 8.
Indiana is a 9.
UNLV is an 11.
OkSt is a 7.
Utah is a 7.
UCLA is a 1 and still Top Overall Seed.
TCU is a 3.
WV is a 6.

So BU is 5-5 against teams projected to make the tournament with no losses to anyone else; KSt is 4-4, plus a loss to Colorado (granted, when CU was at full strength). KSt has the more impressive OOC win (Creighton > UNLV), and KSt has the most impressive overall win (TCU), which BU has a chance to match.

Would not be surprised to see BU replace KSt on the host line this evening, but with a chance to teeter off of it if we faceplant against Toad.

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Beat TCU and win at least one game in the Tournament and I believe we host. Otherwise, I think we have secured a 5.

Current updated bracket shows us as a #5 seed and Kansas St. as a #4.. how is this possible. ???

Tenn is getting smoked by KY at the moment my head just cannot get it straight on what the committee looks at. BU should be a 3-4

Kentucky is good….

Maybe we can get some more Kentucky transfers?

Mostly seniors I believe. But the Strack girl is just a sophomore and she's an elite talent

Kentucky has a new coach. Most of their transfers weee from their previous coach, who was not good.

bawitdaball said:

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Kentucky has a new coach. Most of their transfers weee from their previous coach, who was not good.

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He was Virginia Tech's Coach last year - That is how Strack ended up at Kentucky - she is the real deal !!!

blueeyedbear said:

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bawitdaball said:

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Kentucky has a new coach. Most of their transfers weee from their previous coach, who was not good.

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He was Virginia Tech's Coach last year - That is how Strack ended up at Kentucky - she is the real deal !!!

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I meant most of those transferring out from Kentucky were under their previous coach. And that coach was not good at development. New coach is legit.

bawitdaball said:

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blueeyedbear said:

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bawitdaball said:

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Kentucky has a new coach. Most of their transfers weee from their previous coach, who was not good.

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He was Virginia Tech's Coach last year - That is how Strack ended up at Kentucky - she is the real deal !!!

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I meant most of those transferring out from Kentucky were under their previous coach. And that coach was not good at development. New coach is legit.

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Totally agree with your post - She was a disaster as a coach and a person, that is how we got Dre and Jada.

bawitdaball said:

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Kentucky has a new coach. Most of their transfers weee from their previous coach, who was not good.

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Correct, that vindictive coach is an assistant at Duke now.

Updated this morning......BU still a 5, KSU still a 4

Updated this morning......guess where BU is?


still a 5