You can tell she's angry when she gets flustered and starts name calling.timetraveler said:100% chance a male will be elected president. 99% a white male will be. Please don't argue with me. This indicator will take at least 100 years to change.GrowlTowel said:Doc Holliday said:What basic statistics?timetraveler said:Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"Doc Holliday said:A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.timetraveler said:
Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
Reminds me of basic logic.
He doesn't have that talking point. Might be in the noon blast email so give him a couple of hours to cut and paste.
You guys are the dumbest inbred ****ers on
this site.
Recession is Coming
9,255 Views |
158 Replies |
Last: 1 yr ago by Golem
I just save 15% by switching to Geico!D. C. Bear said:Please explain why everything's great.timetraveler said:exactlyDoc Holliday said:What basic statistics?timetraveler said:Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"Doc Holliday said:A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.timetraveler said:
Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
Reminds me of basic logic.
We could all use some good news.
Maybe the kind used by Boeing in building the 737-MAX Jet?Doc Holliday said:What basic statistics?timetraveler said:Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"Doc Holliday said:A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.timetraveler said:
Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
Reminds me of basic logic.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
go bears*!
fight!!
- kkm
{ sipping coffee }
{ eating toast}
* and the aggy
fight!!
- kkm
{ sipping coffee }
{ eating toast}
* and the aggy
POE.
Generally takes about 2 posts, give or take a post.Wangchung said:You can tell she's angry when she gets flustered and starts name calling.timetraveler said:100% chance a male will be elected president. 99% a white male will be. Please don't argue with me. This indicator will take at least 100 years to change.GrowlTowel said:Doc Holliday said:What basic statistics?timetraveler said:Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"Doc Holliday said:A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.timetraveler said:
Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
Reminds me of basic logic.
He doesn't have that talking point. Might be in the noon blast email so give him a couple of hours to cut and paste.
You guys are the dumbest inbred ****ers on
this site.
12:42pm 04 01 2022
2y 2.438
10y 2.364
CNN: We're nearing a recession, if this always-accurate indicator is right again
New YorkCNN Business
The bond market just flashed a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: an inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.
A yield curve inversion has preceded every single recession since 1955, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
SF FED Link
2y 2.438
10y 2.364
CNN: We're nearing a recession, if this always-accurate indicator is right again
New YorkCNN Business
The bond market just flashed a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: an inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.
A yield curve inversion has preceded every single recession since 1955, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
SF FED Link
Quote:
Conclusion
Forecasting future economic developments is a tricky business, but the term spread has a strikingly accurate record for forecasting recessions. Periods with an inverted yield curve are reliably followed by economic slowdowns and almost always by a recession. While the current environment appears unique compared with recent economic history, statistical evidence suggests that the signal in the term spread is not diminished. These findings indicate concerns about the scenario of an inverting yield curve. Any forecasts that include such a scenario as the most likely outcome carry the risk that an economic slowdown might follow soon thereafter.
I'm no economist, but yesterday a guy who runs a large mutual fund company told me we are heading for a recession, and a buddy who runs a PE firm told me we are heading for a recession. So I kinda think we might be.
c.p.
>>
- kkm
hard to estimate given the amt of global economic sway the guy buried in his bunker in the urals has over everything right now.
and his continued windfall from higher oil prices.
esp since he doesnt seem to be too keen on considering the long term implications of his (ir)rationality.
good night and good luck!
>>
- Ceteris paribus is a Latin phrase that generally means "all other things being equal."
- In economics, it acts as a shorthand indication of the effect one economic variable has on another, provided all other variables remain the same.
- Many economists rely on ceteris paribus to describe relative tendencies in markets and to build and test economic models.
- In reality, one can never assume "all other things being equal."
- kkm
hard to estimate given the amt of global economic sway the guy buried in his bunker in the urals has over everything right now.
and his continued windfall from higher oil prices.
esp since he doesnt seem to be too keen on considering the long term implications of his (ir)rationality.
good night and good luck!
POE.
Yield curve inversion is not a good sign!
I don't post much on this particular board anymore, with the exception of an occasional headline or two..I found myself getting into pissing matches with a few other posters, which I have neither the inclination nor the intellect to engage a lot of'you folks here..So there you go...However, sometimes just old common sense can rule the day...A prolonged inverted yield curve is problematic for our economic health mainly because of the direct effect it has on lending institutions. Banks "borrow" short and lend long. When it costs more for a bank to obtain it's capital than it makes by lending, they tend to "pull in their lending practices" and this nearly always slows the economy. We're in a bit of a sticky situation with inflation, and the Fed will probably enact a couple of 50 basis point rate hikes near term...and they still will have a ways to go to slow the inflation we're all experiencing now. These global supply chain issues are real, and it's got us by the cojones at the moment. I think there's gonna be some economic pain before it gets better. Bear up nobly.J.R. said:
Yield curve inversion is not a good sign!
The Biden admin is still pushing lies and blaming this on Putin. Inflation started WAY earlier than the Ukraine-Russia situation.
PSAKI: "We expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's Price Hike." pic.twitter.com/xImSTGKCnV
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) April 11, 2022
NEW - Deutsche Bank sees a 5% to 6% Fed target rate which will push the US into a significant recession next year.https://t.co/Bq2sFWNtww
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) April 26, 2022
I've gone liquid. Going to buy when everything crashes.
Inflation re-accelerated, even as wage gains slow down. Real wages on a weekly basis plunge to the most negative in data going back to 2006. pic.twitter.com/gp53tWeZjk
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 10, 2022
ahhhhhhwlllllllllll.....................
- kkm
..... eaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrl.
BID.
- kkm
..... eaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrl.
BID.
POE.
Stay safe; stay at home; do nothing; print money; experience shortages and high prices; repeat.william said:
ahhhhhhwlllllllllll.....................
- kkm
..... eaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrl.
BID.
I heard today that the CPI (Inflation) statistics might cause the Fed to do .75 basis point increases instead of the .50 previously expected. Ouch.
Guy Noir said:
I heard today that the CPI (Inflation) statistics might cause the Fed to do .75 basis point increases instead of the .50 previously expected. Ouch.
That would slow things down a whole bunch.
The recession will hit in the first half of 2023 and the Dow is headed lower: CNBC CFO survey https://t.co/2St6YGc0bV
— CNBC (@CNBC) June 9, 2022
Doc Holliday said:NEW - Deutsche Bank sees a 5% to 6% Fed target rate which will push the US into a significant recession next year.https://t.co/Bq2sFWNtww
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) April 26, 2022
I've gone liquid. Going to buy when everything crashes.
Target late September.
Doc Holliday said:
The Biden admin is still pushing lies and blaming this on Putin. Inflation started WAY earlier than the Ukraine-Russia situation.PSAKI: "We expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's Price Hike." pic.twitter.com/xImSTGKCnV
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) April 11, 2022
Here's their issue. They're trying to Get people To Believe without Putin this wouldn't have happened yet Biden and Obama pushed through an insane largess package that was completely unnecessary.
Trump tried to get people back to work. These damn fools want to break the system and all you've worked for.
By blaming it on Lutin means these two ******ed weaklings have to solve Lutin which they have zero
Ability to do as everyone knows they are weak ass ******* that no one respects. So if he's the problem and Brandon and Obama can't solve Putin, how does this end?
We just getting started yo!!!!
Anybody who remains a Dem partisan by the end of this October will be either be too poor or too rich to give a damn how deeply this country sinks into a depression .
Such fools put party loyalty and blind hatred above all else.
Such fools put party loyalty and blind hatred above all else.
william said:
the new pce estimate is here......
- kkm
.... the new pce estimate is here!
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce?utm_source=cvent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pce
The new phone books are here. I'm somebody.
I would be shocked if there wasn't a recession. We can't keep going on with these progressive restrictive policies and we can't as a Nation keep putting "equity" as the primary driver of our society. Production has to play in at some point.Bexar Pitts said:2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.htmlDoc Holliday said:
Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.
The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.
Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.
Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.
Be prepared.
I really hope you are wrong about a depression. Someone mentioned starting level jobs at 100k? We are not seeing that in the South, 50k with a Masters or a Specialized degree in a high value area (Maritime, transportation, health care, etc...)
I wish I was wrong about a depression.RMF5630 said:I would be shocked if there wasn't a recession. We can't keep going on with these progressive restrictive policies and we can't as a Nation keep putting "equity" as the primary driver of our society. Production has to play in at some point.Bexar Pitts said:2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.htmlDoc Holliday said:
Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.
The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.
Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.
Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.
Be prepared.
I really hope you are wrong about a depression. Someone mentioned starting level jobs at 100k? We are not seeing that in the South, 50k with a Masters or a Specialized degree in a high value area (Maritime, transportation, health care, etc...)
A total month of work was negated by inflation. Add that to the number of days it takes to pay for federal and state taxes and some people aren't seeing a dollar until 3-4 months of work.
This is very bad.
It's hard to believe this has to be said, but unlike this president, I’ll do my job and take responsibility. I won’t blame others. And I’ll never forget that the job isn’t about me — it’s about you.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) June 4, 2020
again fair value on the s&p - just accounting for the anticipated rate hikes - is 3850. has been for a looooong time.
- kkm
now, if earning start to suffer.....
stay away from the voodooware companies. for now.
{ sipping coffee }
{ eating toast }
- kkm
now, if earning start to suffer.....
stay away from the voodooware companies. for now.
{ sipping coffee }
{ eating toast }
POE.
hello ministry of Truth?! Yeah, them twitters are at it again!Jack Bauer said:It's hard to believe this has to be said, but unlike this president, I’ll do my job and take responsibility. I won’t blame others. And I’ll never forget that the job isn’t about me — it’s about you.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) June 4, 2020
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
We've only barely begun our economic decline. This is going to be worse than you can imagine.
U.S. tech companies yank job offers, leaving college grads scrambling https://t.co/ozCNAGnJ8b pic.twitter.com/2vzURFacJO
— Reuters (@Reuters) June 22, 2022
Doc Holliday said:
We've only barely begun our economic decline. This is going to be worse than you can imagine.U.S. tech companies yank job offers, leaving college grads scrambling https://t.co/ozCNAGnJ8b pic.twitter.com/2vzURFacJO
— Reuters (@Reuters) June 22, 2022
can't wait for that gubment livable wage check!!!! They will take care of me.
Gonna be in trouble for a lot of industries. Unless you are in supply chain or health fields jobs will become more scarce. Biden's America is for the future, this is pain we have to go through for the greater good. Don't you people understand?????Jack Bauer said:Doc Holliday said:
We've only barely begun our economic decline. This is going to be worse than you can imagine.U.S. tech companies yank job offers, leaving college grads scrambling https://t.co/ozCNAGnJ8b pic.twitter.com/2vzURFacJO
— Reuters (@Reuters) June 22, 2022
can't wait for that gubment livable wage check!!!! They will take care of me.
Can't we just take two years to flatten the curve, stay safe-stay home, and print a bunch a government cash?RMF5630 said:Gonna be in trouble for a lot of industries. Unless you are in supply chain or health fields jobs will become more scarce. Biden's America is for the future, this is pain we have to go through for the greater good. Don't you people understand?????Jack Bauer said:Doc Holliday said:
We've only barely begun our economic decline. This is going to be worse than you can imagine.U.S. tech companies yank job offers, leaving college grads scrambling https://t.co/ozCNAGnJ8b pic.twitter.com/2vzURFacJO
— Reuters (@Reuters) June 22, 2022
can't wait for that gubment livable wage check!!!! They will take care of me.
The fed's money printer is the path to prosperity.
Doc Holliday said:I wish I was wrong about a depression.RMF5630 said:I would be shocked if there wasn't a recession. We can't keep going on with these progressive restrictive policies and we can't as a Nation keep putting "equity" as the primary driver of our society. Production has to play in at some point.Bexar Pitts said:2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.htmlDoc Holliday said:
Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.
The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.
Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.
Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.
Be prepared.
I really hope you are wrong about a depression. Someone mentioned starting level jobs at 100k? We are not seeing that in the South, 50k with a Masters or a Specialized degree in a high value area (Maritime, transportation, health care, etc...)
A total month of work was negated by inflation. Add that to the number of days it takes to pay for federal and state taxes and some people aren't seeing a dollar until 3-4 months of work.
This is very bad.
Do you ever wake up and say "today is going to be a good day?"
Booray said:Do you ever wake up and say "today is going to be a good day?"Doc Holliday said:I wish I was wrong about a depression.RMF5630 said:I would be shocked if there wasn't a recession. We can't keep going on with these progressive restrictive policies and we can't as a Nation keep putting "equity" as the primary driver of our society. Production has to play in at some point.Bexar Pitts said:2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.htmlDoc Holliday said:
Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.
The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.
Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.
Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.
Be prepared.
I really hope you are wrong about a depression. Someone mentioned starting level jobs at 100k? We are not seeing that in the South, 50k with a Masters or a Specialized degree in a high value area (Maritime, transportation, health care, etc...)
A total month of work was negated by inflation. Add that to the number of days it takes to pay for federal and state taxes and some people aren't seeing a dollar until 3-4 months of work.
This is very bad.
kind of hard to under biden and his puppet masters when every new day is another bad day for AmericaBooray said:Doc Holliday said:I wish I was wrong about a depression.RMF5630 said:I would be shocked if there wasn't a recession. We can't keep going on with these progressive restrictive policies and we can't as a Nation keep putting "equity" as the primary driver of our society. Production has to play in at some point.Bexar Pitts said:2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.htmlDoc Holliday said:
Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.
The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.
Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.
Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.
Be prepared.
I really hope you are wrong about a depression. Someone mentioned starting level jobs at 100k? We are not seeing that in the South, 50k with a Masters or a Specialized degree in a high value area (Maritime, transportation, health care, etc...)
A total month of work was negated by inflation. Add that to the number of days it takes to pay for federal and state taxes and some people aren't seeing a dollar until 3-4 months of work.
This is very bad.
Do you ever wake up and say "today is going to be a good day?"
Last time was when Reagan was President...Booray said:Doc Holliday said:I wish I was wrong about a depression.RMF5630 said:I would be shocked if there wasn't a recession. We can't keep going on with these progressive restrictive policies and we can't as a Nation keep putting "equity" as the primary driver of our society. Production has to play in at some point.Bexar Pitts said:2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.htmlDoc Holliday said:
Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.
The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.
Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.
Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.
Be prepared.
I really hope you are wrong about a depression. Someone mentioned starting level jobs at 100k? We are not seeing that in the South, 50k with a Masters or a Specialized degree in a high value area (Maritime, transportation, health care, etc...)
A total month of work was negated by inflation. Add that to the number of days it takes to pay for federal and state taxes and some people aren't seeing a dollar until 3-4 months of work.
This is very bad.
Do you ever wake up and say "today is going to be a good day?"