Recession is Coming

10,199 Views | 158 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Golem
Doc Holliday
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This is insane.



Banks are about to get 4% of risk free yield on $2 Trillion in reverse repo operation. Paid by Taxpayers.

We taxpayers are paying banks to not lend. This should be criminal.
Sam Lowry
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He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...
Wrecks Quan Dough
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Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
Doc Holliday
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Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Sam Lowry
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He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.
Wrecks Quan Dough
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Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
Doc Holliday
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Bexar Pitts
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This reminds me of early 80's as far as Fed raising interest rates..They'll overshoot, and we'll see a recession that won't qualify as a "soft" landing. Short end of the curve is attractive today..almost 4% on a 6 month T-Bill..Nice place to park for a bit, IMO.
Sam Lowry
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He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
If Trump's appointees were unscientific fearmongers, he should have fired them. He found it more useful to blame them for what he couldn't fix. And you bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Wrecks Quan Dough
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
If Trump's appointees were unscientific fearmongers, he should have fired them. He found it more useful to blame them for what he couldn't fix. And you bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Scott Atlas was not a fear monger. Fauci was not a Trump appointee. I did not buy anything. No vax. No mask. Never stopped working. Never stopped gathering with my friends. I never stopped living a normal life. But you be you and choke on that mask you like to wear.
Doc Holliday
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Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
If Trump's appointees were unscientific fearmongers, he should have fired them. He found it more useful to blame them for what he couldn't fix. And you bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Trump hired absolute morons and was surrounded by wolves. He's not smart enough to combat the system at that level.

I'd prefer Rand Paul as POTUS, but at the least Trump fights for goals in favor of the people, which is infinitely better than voting for any democrat and most republicans.

You've bought into this idea of MAGA being fascist or sinister, but you can't point to actual policies that back up that perception. You need to stop watching mainstream media.
Sam Lowry
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He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
If Trump's appointees were unscientific fearmongers, he should have fired them. He found it more useful to blame them for what he couldn't fix. And you bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Scott Atlas was not a fear monger. Fauci was not a Trump appointee. I did not buy anything. No vax. No mask. Never stopped working. Never stopped gathering with my friends. I never stopped living a normal life. But you be you and choke on that mask you like to wear.
Ohh, you're the poster from the Atlas fan club. That checks out.
Wrecks Quan Dough
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Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
If Trump's appointees were unscientific fearmongers, he should have fired them. He found it more useful to blame them for what he couldn't fix. And you bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Scott Atlas was not a fear monger. Fauci was not a Trump appointee. I did not buy anything. No vax. No mask. Never stopped working. Never stopped gathering with my friends. I never stopped living a normal life. But you be you and choke on that mask you like to wear.
Ohh, you're the poster from the Atlas fan club. That checks out.
Atlas is not a fear monger = Member of Atlas fan club. That is quite a stretch even for you.
Sam Lowry
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He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
If Trump's appointees were unscientific fearmongers, he should have fired them. He found it more useful to blame them for what he couldn't fix. And you bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Scott Atlas was not a fear monger. Fauci was not a Trump appointee. I did not buy anything. No vax. No mask. Never stopped working. Never stopped gathering with my friends. I never stopped living a normal life. But you be you and choke on that mask you like to wear.
Ohh, you're the poster from the Atlas fan club. That checks out.
Atlas is not a fear monger = Member of Atlas fan club. That is quite a stretch even for you.
I thought you'd posted about him before. There are so many geniuses here I might have you mixed up.
Wrecks Quan Dough
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...



Cost him the election. Of course, we had idiots like you pushing pandemic nonsense and nonsciense for over 18 months.
"Science" ends with "-ce." Congratulations, you now know exactly one thing about science.


And you still know nothing except how to cower in fear at the unscientific postulates of political appointees.
If Trump's appointees were unscientific fearmongers, he should have fired them. He found it more useful to blame them for what he couldn't fix. And you bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Scott Atlas was not a fear monger. Fauci was not a Trump appointee. I did not buy anything. No vax. No mask. Never stopped working. Never stopped gathering with my friends. I never stopped living a normal life. But you be you and choke on that mask you like to wear.
Ohh, you're the poster from the Atlas fan club. That checks out.
Atlas is not a fear monger = Member of Atlas fan club. That is quite a stretch even for you.
I thought you'd posted about him before. There are so many geniuses here I might have you mixed up.
Makes sense that you "thought" and were wrong.
Canada2017
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Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.
Harrison Bergeron
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Biden's geniuses turned record economic growth into the late 70s in less than two years.
Oldbear83
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Harrison Bergeron said:

Biden's geniuses turned record economic growth into the late 70s in less than two years.
At least 'That 70s Show' had a couple hot chicks. That Biden Show is ugly, chaotic and cacaphonic.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
nein51
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Bexar Pitts said:

This reminds me of early 80's as far as Fed raising interest rates..They'll overshoot, and we'll see a recession that won't qualify as a "soft" landing. Short end of the curve is attractive today..almost 4% on a 6 month T-Bill..Nice place to park for a bit, IMO.

They are still under where they need to be. I said wayyyyy back in this thread it would be .75 and q3 and .75 in q4. They needed to raise rates higher faster but that's not politically expedient so they didn't. These rates are going to be around a while as well.
nein51
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Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
Canada2017
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.
FLBear5630
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nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
The rates are just part of the problem. The Biden Administration is picking winners and losers on the future based on it fitting their narrative, not whether those technologies can actually support the US economy.

We are pushing Electric Vehicles at the expense of ICE Vehicles with no thought to the electric grid capacity and how several million will impact the system. There is not only not enough re-charging for use beyond local, but the tech to recharge in a reasonable amount of time is lacking.

While doing that, we shut down fossil fuel development to rely on reusables, which cannot handle the load.

We are not building more road miles because of social reasons and that they believe everyone will move downtown, but a Condo in downtown in most urban areas is too expensive for all but the most wealthy.

Not to mention the Pandemic fiasco, we didn't see it here in Florida because we had a Governor that knew enough to keep us up and running since July 1, 2020. But the supply line issues are still impacting the economy.

Government Spending has been horrid.

There are more. This is not as simple as an interest rate issue, this is like an orchestrated how to crash an economy approach.


nein51
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That's true but I don't think it has much to do with interest rates and home values. Two separate but important issues. Ie I don't disagree you but that's not the main driver of home issues.
nein51
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Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Canada2017
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nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.
nein51
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.

Drop in value does not equal foreclosure. It would equal a very hard time selling (which you're already seeing).

Increase in foreclosures is inevitable btw. People bought at the height of value then rates went up. Lots of people in a position where they couldnt sell if they wanted to.

Reduction in value would make it worse but that is inevitable as well.
Canada2017
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.

Drop in value does not equal foreclosure. It would equal a very hard time selling (which you're already seeing).

Increase in foreclosures is inevitable btw. People bought at the height of value then rates went up. Lots of people in a position where they could sell if they wanted to.

Reduction in value would make it worse but that is inevitable as well.
Its all inevitable at this point.......the perfect storm .

High interest rates , feds printing trillions of dollars they simply don't possess and additional millions of illegals scrambling for food and shelter .

And NONE of this is an accident .
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nein51 said:

That's true but I don't think it has much to do with interest rates and home values. Two separate but important issues. Ie I don't disagree you but that's not the main driver of home issues.
I defer on homes. I am a transportation guy...
Booray
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.

Drop in value does not equal foreclosure. It would equal a very hard time selling (which you're already seeing).

Increase in foreclosures is inevitable btw. People bought at the height of value then rates went up. Lots of people in a position where they couldnt sell if they wanted to.

Reduction in value would make it worse but that is inevitable as well.


It's not people who bought who are at risk of foreclosure. While the value of their purchase might decrease, they got in at historically low rates. Plus the better underwriting following the 2008 debacle generally means they can afford the payments. If they don't have to move, they will be ok.

OTOH, serial refinancers who depend on cash out re-fis to finance their lifestyle might be in a bind.
Doc Holliday
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Booray said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.

Drop in value does not equal foreclosure. It would equal a very hard time selling (which you're already seeing).

Increase in foreclosures is inevitable btw. People bought at the height of value then rates went up. Lots of people in a position where they couldnt sell if they wanted to.

Reduction in value would make it worse but that is inevitable as well.


It's not people who bought who are at risk of foreclosure. While the value of their purchase might decrease, they got in at historically low rates. Plus the better underwriting following the 2008 debacle generally means they can afford the payments. If they don't have to move, they will be ok.

OTOH, serial refinancers who depend on cash out re-fis to finance their lifestyle might be in a bind.
Wages aren't high enough to keep up with inflation and insane taxes. People making average salaries in Texas that bought at 3% rates in a MUD/PID paying 5 figure property taxes on average priced homes are either going to max out their credit cards or they're going to lose their homes if their household income is below $100K.

Democrats and Republicans who spend big are ruining this country. The only thing that will fix this is lowering state and federal budgets by massive amounts. They're not gonna do it because it's all grift based and they really don't give a rats ass about the people.
Cobretti
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nein51
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Booray said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.

Drop in value does not equal foreclosure. It would equal a very hard time selling (which you're already seeing).

Increase in foreclosures is inevitable btw. People bought at the height of value then rates went up. Lots of people in a position where they couldnt sell if they wanted to.

Reduction in value would make it worse but that is inevitable as well.


It's not people who bought who are at risk of foreclosure. While the value of their purchase might decrease, they got in at historically low rates. Plus the better underwriting following the 2008 debacle generally means they can afford the payments. If they don't have to move, they will be ok.

OTOH, serial refinancers who depend on cash out re-fis to finance their lifestyle might be in a bind.

I agree to an extent. I think you're underestimating how many people move and how often.
57Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
OTOH, they do care about getting re-elected.
Booray
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nein51 said:

Booray said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.

Drop in value does not equal foreclosure. It would equal a very hard time selling (which you're already seeing).

Increase in foreclosures is inevitable btw. People bought at the height of value then rates went up. Lots of people in a position where they couldnt sell if they wanted to.

Reduction in value would make it worse but that is inevitable as well.


It's not people who bought who are at risk of foreclosure. While the value of their purchase might decrease, they got in at historically low rates. Plus the better underwriting following the 2008 debacle generally means they can afford the payments. If they don't have to move, they will be ok.

OTOH, serial refinancers who depend on cash out re-fis to finance their lifestyle might be in a bind.

I agree to an extent. I think you're underestimating how many people move and how often.
That is likely true. But my guess is if they can't sell (or won't sell at currrent prices) they will become landlords.
nein51
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Booray said:

nein51 said:

Booray said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

nein51 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Sam Lowry said:

He Hate Me said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

I actually thought Stagflation was a thing of the past but it's here. Basically we've recreated the 70s with high crime, social unrest, stagflation, and global warming instead of global cooling.
And all it took was "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" and the other nonsense that followed the initial nonsense.
I agree that "two weeks to flatten the curve" was a travesty. Liberal elites knew perfectly well the lockdowns would have to last longer, but they didn't want to risk telling the truth. So they assumed people were idiots and came up with a slogan that would appeal to them. It was an insult to our intelligence and yet another sign of how little regard they have for us deplorables. I don't know why anyone tolerates it.

Also, when I said that liberal elites did all this, I was kind of kidding. It was actually the Trump administration...

We are reaping the effects of irrationally combating covid, combined with reckless spending and applying failed Keynesian economics for decades.

Millions of people are going to lose their homes because of it.

This will make the 2008 recession look like a walk in the park.
Real estate is going to take a major hit.

Told my wife recently to expect a 20% reduction in the value of our properties within the next 3-12 months .

And it could be far worse.

Know a guy who just closed on an 85 million dollar development deal . Thank God it wasn't me.

20% reduction isn't enough. I'm not sure 50% is enough. We saw values rise insanely high in a very short time period because rates were near 0.
If it even approaches 30% we will enter the worst depression since the 30's.

Maybe.

But look at this chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

That didn't happen organically. A 50% reduction in value would basically bring us back in line with less than 10 years ago.
Not sure if most people could even absorb a 20% hit .

Many simply would be foreclosed .

Those with adjustable rate mortgages could be the first.

Home builders are also in for a very hard time....except possibly luxury home builders.

Drop in value does not equal foreclosure. It would equal a very hard time selling (which you're already seeing).

Increase in foreclosures is inevitable btw. People bought at the height of value then rates went up. Lots of people in a position where they couldnt sell if they wanted to.

Reduction in value would make it worse but that is inevitable as well.


It's not people who bought who are at risk of foreclosure. While the value of their purchase might decrease, they got in at historically low rates. Plus the better underwriting following the 2008 debacle generally means they can afford the payments. If they don't have to move, they will be ok.

OTOH, serial refinancers who depend on cash out re-fis to finance their lifestyle might be in a bind.

I agree to an extent. I think you're underestimating how many people move and how often.
That is likely true. But my guess is if they can't sell (or won't sell at currrent prices) they will become landlords.

If you can't afford one mortgage how do you afford two?

You don't make *that* much as a landlord, in general.

But I think we mostly agree
 
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