or, better said......timing is everything. Rarely do people agree to peace in a stalemate. They tend to hang in there until they think they either have the upper hand but are not strong enough to see it thru, or they are about to tip over into a deteriorating condition they cannot reverse. Right now, Russia thinks it can out last us, while Ukraine thinks it can mount an offensive that will force large scale Russian retreats and/or surrenders. That means circumstances in Ukraine are likely to change in about 45-60 days. One side or the other may well be reeling and begging for peace. But which side?Redbrickbear said:
Peace can not be allowed to break out.US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken rules out ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine at this time
— Spriter (@Spriter99880) April 8, 2023
“Russia must get to the point where it is ready to enter into constructive negotiations,” he said in an interview with the Funke media group.
“For some, the idea of a… pic.twitter.com/0sXFjWUqjz
Fact is, Russia has exhausted itself over a piece of ground of trivial significance (Bakhmut), suffering casualties approaching 7x greater than what it is inflicting, in grinding hand-to-hand trench warfare for yards of gain per day, at best. They are spread out thinly across a broad front to facilitate those desperate attacks in Bakhmut. They cannot supply their entire front with sufficient troops or ammunition to defend against an attack in force at any particular point in the line. That makes them highly vulnerable to exactly what Ukraine is planning: an armored assault by fresh troops making slashing attacks on a narrow front, sweeping to the rear to destroy arty and logistics hubs, cutting off entire divisions at a time.
Does Ukraine have the armor to do this? Do they have fresh troops to do this? Can Russia stop them when it happens? The answers are yes, yes, and likely not.
While I would not bet a lot on the outcome, I know where the better bet would be. The time to counterattack is at the point your enemy's attacks have culminated. Russia's winter offensive has culminated. QED. We will know a lot more by June 1. That means no serious peace talks until this summer.