Russia mobilizes

260,994 Views | 4259 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by sombear
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

Peace can not be allowed to break out.


or, better said......timing is everything. Rarely do people agree to peace in a stalemate. They tend to hang in there until they think they either have the upper hand but are not strong enough to see it thru, or they are about to tip over into a deteriorating condition they cannot reverse. Right now, Russia thinks it can out last us, while Ukraine thinks it can mount an offensive that will force large scale Russian retreats and/or surrenders. That means circumstances in Ukraine are likely to change in about 45-60 days. One side or the other may well be reeling and begging for peace. But which side?

Fact is, Russia has exhausted itself over a piece of ground of trivial significance (Bakhmut), suffering casualties approaching 7x greater than what it is inflicting, in grinding hand-to-hand trench warfare for yards of gain per day, at best. They are spread out thinly across a broad front to facilitate those desperate attacks in Bakhmut. They cannot supply their entire front with sufficient troops or ammunition to defend against an attack in force at any particular point in the line. That makes them highly vulnerable to exactly what Ukraine is planning: an armored assault by fresh troops making slashing attacks on a narrow front, sweeping to the rear to destroy arty and logistics hubs, cutting off entire divisions at a time.

Does Ukraine have the armor to do this? Do they have fresh troops to do this? Can Russia stop them when it happens? The answers are yes, yes, and likely not.

While I would not bet a lot on the outcome, I know where the better bet would be. The time to counterattack is at the point your enemy's attacks have culminated. Russia's winter offensive has culminated. QED. We will know a lot more by June 1. That means no serious peace talks until this summer.


trey3216
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Redbrickbear said:

Peace can not be allowed to break out.


Because we're talking about a rational nation here, right.....???

Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Redbrickbear
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trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Peace can not be allowed to break out.


Because we're talking about a rational nation here, right.....???




We are not seeming much rationalism anywhere these days.

Not in Moscow, not in Kyiv, and not in Washington.
Redbrickbear
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trey3216
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Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
FLBear5630
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trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
cowboycwr
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RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
True but the Ardennes was doomed before it began. It never had enough supplies to make a big impact on the war/change the result. All it ever was going to be was a minor break through and bump in the lines, not a complete pushback to the sea. In fact some historians argue it helped the allies in the spring offensives by weakening the German defenses.
trey3216
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RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
I was more referring to the psyops campaigns prior to the invasions of Italy/Sicily and Operation Overlord.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
KaiBear
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RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
The Germans were totally done......and not remotely a close call.
Nothing was going to stop the Red Army by this point in the war.

Meanwhile the Ardennes was Hitler's last and possibly worst a tactical blunder on the Western Front .
Allowed Patton to pinch off much of the Bulge .

Shortened the battle on the Western Front by weeks if not months .
FLBear5630
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trey3216 said:

RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
I was more referring to the psyops campaigns prior to the invasions of Italy/Sicily and Operation Overlord.
Ok, no argument. Worked well.
FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
The Germans were totally done......and not remotely a close call.
Nothing was going to stop the Red Army by this point in the war.

Meanwhile the Ardennes was Hitler's last and possibly worst a tactical blunder on the Western Front .
Allowed Patton to pinch off much of the Bulge .

Shortened the battle on the Western Front by weeks if not months .
I was saying it was a surprise. Allies did not expect it and had the Allies on their back foot

You make it sound like Patton's race to Bastigone was planned!
KaiBear
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cowboycwr said:

RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
In fact some historians argue it helped the allies in the spring offensives by weakening the German defenses.
Even the German generals knew the attack was doomed before it began .

As they didn't have near enough fuel to reach the coast.

Hitler just shrugged their objections aside and decided the British and American fuel dumps would be captured intact.

Most historians consider the attack still another one of Hitlers blunders and it most likely did end up shortening the war.
FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

cowboycwr said:

RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
In fact some historians argue it helped the allies in the spring offensives by weakening the German defenses.
Even the German generals knew the attack was doomed before it began .

As they didn't have near enough fuel to reach the coast.

Hitler just shrugged their objections aside and decided the British and American fuel dumps would be captured intact.

Most historians consider the attack still another one of Hitlers blunders and it most likely did end up shortening the war.
Don't read too much into it. It was a surprise, that is all I meant. No further parallels were implied.
Redbrickbear
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KaiBear
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Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.


Redbrickbear
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KaiBear said:

Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.





50 years of aid for lots of countries who have populations that hate us.

At this point I'm pretty certain foreign aid is just a money laundering scam by the Beltway insiders.

There is no other rational explanation.
Redbrickbear
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whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Peace can not be allowed to break out.


Because we're talking about a rational nation here, right.....???




We are not seeming much rationalism anywhere these days.

Not in Moscow, not in Kyiv, and not in Washington.
and most certainly not in the argument that we should just back away from the conflict and let Russia have what it wants = all of Ukraine.
whiterock
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trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.
war tends to be "dire" until somebody wins.
whiterock
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KaiBear said:

Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.



we don't send aid to Egypt to make Egyptians love us.

we send aid to Egypt to induce them not to invade Israel, among other things.
cowboycwr
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RMF5630 said:

KaiBear said:

cowboycwr said:

RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
In fact some historians argue it helped the allies in the spring offensives by weakening the German defenses.
Even the German generals knew the attack was doomed before it began .

As they didn't have near enough fuel to reach the coast.

Hitler just shrugged their objections aside and decided the British and American fuel dumps would be captured intact.

Most historians consider the attack still another one of Hitlers blunders and it most likely did end up shortening the war.
Don't read too much into it. It was a surprise, that is all I meant. No further parallels were implied.
I would put a caveat on the surprise part. There is a good deal of evidence that the higher ups knew an attack was coming at some point, knew the Ardennes would be the target, they just did not know the when or exact spot of attack.
FLBear5630
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cowboycwr said:

RMF5630 said:

KaiBear said:

cowboycwr said:

RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
In fact some historians argue it helped the allies in the spring offensives by weakening the German defenses.
Even the German generals knew the attack was doomed before it began .

As they didn't have near enough fuel to reach the coast.

Hitler just shrugged their objections aside and decided the British and American fuel dumps would be captured intact.

Most historians consider the attack still another one of Hitlers blunders and it most likely did end up shortening the war.
Don't read too much into it. It was a surprise, that is all I meant. No further parallels were implied.
I would put a caveat on the surprise part. There is a good deal of evidence that the higher ups knew an attack was coming at some point, knew the Ardennes would be the target, they just did not know the when or exact spot of attack.
Ok, it was a dead wrong analogy. I will do more research before posting on the political message board. : )
cowboycwr
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RMF5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

RMF5630 said:

KaiBear said:

cowboycwr said:

RMF5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:


I think a lot of the "leaked docs" were psyops tbh. US has been really good about that in regards to invasions/counterattacks over the years.


The Germans had the Allies believing they were done and then the Ardennes.
In fact some historians argue it helped the allies in the spring offensives by weakening the German defenses.
Even the German generals knew the attack was doomed before it began .

As they didn't have near enough fuel to reach the coast.

Hitler just shrugged their objections aside and decided the British and American fuel dumps would be captured intact.

Most historians consider the attack still another one of Hitlers blunders and it most likely did end up shortening the war.
Don't read too much into it. It was a surprise, that is all I meant. No further parallels were implied.
I would put a caveat on the surprise part. There is a good deal of evidence that the higher ups knew an attack was coming at some point, knew the Ardennes would be the target, they just did not know the when or exact spot of attack.
Ok, it was a dead wrong analogy. I will do more research before posting on the political message board. : )
I am not saying that. It was not a bad analogy... it just was not a 100% good comparison but that has more to do with the crazy aspect of Hitler. All the German Generals did not want to attack anywhere. They wanted to build strong defenses on both fronts. They knew they were done. The allies knew they were done. Hitler would not accept it.

Which probably correlates well now to the current war as it seems one side is done but their leader won't accept that and go to the peace table.
Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.



we don't send aid to Egypt to make Egyptians love us.

we send aid to Egypt to induce them not to invade Israel, among other things.


Israel has nuclear weapons and a army far more capable than Egypt.

The Egyptian government knows that any invasion of Israel means they get turned to nuclear ash.

At this point if that is why we are paying them than we are suckers.


p.s.

Israel and Egypt have also been at peace since 1979 when Israel withdrew its forces from occupied Sinai.

The possibility that the Muslim Brotherhood might even consider breaking the treaty is one of the reasons (one of many) that the Egyptian military removed them from power in 2013

No one in Egypt is gonna break that treaty...USA bribes or no USA bribes.
sombear
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.



we don't send aid to Egypt to make Egyptians love us.

we send aid to Egypt to induce them not to invade Israel, among other things.


Israel has nuclear weapons and a army far more capable than Egypt.

The Egyptian government knows that any invasion of Israel means they get turned to nuclear ash.

At this point if that is why we are paying them than we are suckers.
Not weighing in on whether we should be paying them, but we are paying them for their intel and to help them keep their crazies under control.
ATL Bear
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KaiBear said:

Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.



If the US government stopped providing aid to people who hate the U.S., we'd save a ton of money, mostly right here at home.
Redbrickbear
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KaiBear
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.



we don't send aid to Egypt to make Egyptians love us.

we send aid to Egypt to induce them not to invade Israel, among other things.


Israel has nuclear weapons and a army far more capable than Egypt.

The Egyptian government knows that any invasion of Israel means they get turned to nuclear ash.

At this point if that is why we are paying them than we are suckers.
In a broad sense its exactly why we giving Egypt billions.


Of course we are suckers.


So much of are foreign policy is based on events that occurred decades ago.

We nee a total overhaul of our country's priorities. .
Redbrickbear
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Redbrickbear
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Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

Redbrickbear said:




The US has been sending billions of dollars in aid to Egypt since the Camp David Accord .

Yet the vast majority of Egyptians still hate our guts.


Stop ALL US aid to Egypt NOW.



we don't send aid to Egypt to make Egyptians love us.

we send aid to Egypt to induce them not to invade Israel, among other things.


And Egypt thanks us for the money we send them…by sending rockets to Russia.


Doc Holliday
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Redbrickbear
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Redbrickbear
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cowboycwr
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Redbrickbear said:





Glad the people of Ukraine can rest easy now that they have heard that song live and that a very, very important government oficial....errr country singer has gotten an update on how the war is going. Can't wait until he updates the president and decides on next steps.....
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