The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Russia mobilizes
281,358 Views |
4259 Replies |
Last: 1 yr ago by sombear
Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
You have, without question, absolutely lost it man. You have lost your ****ing mind, and have become a caricature of a person that used to be able to carry a cogent discussion.Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
Heard the same thing 20 years ago when I said the Taliban was the only long-term viable power in Afghanistan. Reality will catch up with you eventually...by which time no doubt you'll be foaming at the mouth for war with China. We're not going to win that one either, by the way.trey3216 said:You have, without question, absolutely lost it man. You have lost your ****ing mind, and have become a caricature of a person that used to be able to carry a cogent discussion.Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Sam Lowry said:Heard the same thing 20 years ago when I said the Taliban was the only long-term viable power in Afghanistan. Reality will catch up with you eventually...by which time no doubt you'll be foaming at the mouth for war with China. We're not going to win that one either, by the way.trey3216 said:You have, without question, absolutely lost it man. You have lost your ****ing mind, and have become a caricature of a person that used to be able to carry a cogent discussion.Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Wrong as usual vatnik.
Sam's a Putin Cheerleader, this is how he thinks.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Oldbear83 said:Sam's a Putin Cheerleader, this is how he thinks.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
Oh I am well aware.
Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
Lol stop it vatnik. It's quite disgusting.
I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Why, in any universe, does Russia need to win the war??
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Because they're the only ones who are acting in any way rationally. A neutral Ukraine would have been better, but failing that, Russia offers the best chance of stability.trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Why, in any universe, does Russia need to win the war??
Sam Lowry said:Because they're the only ones who are acting in any way rationally. A neutral Ukraine would have been better, but failing that, Russia offers the best chance of stability.trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Why, in any universe, does Russia need to win the war??
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
Sam: "they're the only ones who are acting in any way rationally"
There you have it folks. Only invading other nations is "rational"
Defending your country is somehow a crime.
There you have it folks. Only invading other nations is "rational"
Defending your country is somehow a crime.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Ukraine was harmless and an economic partner. Putin and Russia rewarded them by invading, twice. Yeah, hell of a threat... Who is the threat here?Sam Lowry said:The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
We've used Ukraine to fight Russia off and on since WWII. In many ways it was a laboratory for the kind of dirty work we became known for in the latter half of the century. Tens of thousands of people died as a result. We say it's all part of the game, but it's a different game when you're messing around in a buffer zone as opposed to targeting a great power.FLBear5630 said:Ukraine was harmless and an economic partner. Putin and Russia rewarded them by invading, twice. Yeah, hell of a threat... Who is the threat here?Sam Lowry said:The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
The simple reason Russia offers the best chance of stability is this: stability is what Russia actually wants. Our foreign policy since the Cold War has mostly been geared in the opposite direction. "Creative destruction" on a geopolitical scale is the idea. Of course it's always someone else's country that gets destroyed, at least so far.
Russian Stability...Sam Lowry said:We've used Ukraine to fight Russia off and on since WWII. In many ways it was a laboratory for the kind of dirty work we became known for in the latter half of the century. Tens of thousands of people died as a result. We say it's all part of the game, but it's a different game when you're messing around in a buffer zone as opposed to targeting a great power.FLBear5630 said:Ukraine was harmless and an economic partner. Putin and Russia rewarded them by invading, twice. Yeah, hell of a threat... Who is the threat here?Sam Lowry said:The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
The simple reason Russia offers the best chance of stability is this: stability is what Russia actually wants. Our foreign policy since the Cold War has mostly been geared in the opposite direction. "Creative destruction" on a geopolitical scale is the idea. Of course it's always someone else's country that gets destroyed, at least so far.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Yet, it is always the one that is fighting to be free that asks for our help. You seem to think that the Communist/Socialist side is just in their actions and the nasty, greedy US is trying to destabilize. Yet, it seems to be the Communists that invade...Sam Lowry said:We've used Ukraine to fight Russia off and on since WWII. In many ways it was a laboratory for the kind of dirty work we became known for in the latter half of the century. Tens of thousands of people died as a result. We say it's all part of the game, but it's a different game when you're messing around in a buffer zone as opposed to targeting a great power.FLBear5630 said:Ukraine was harmless and an economic partner. Putin and Russia rewarded them by invading, twice. Yeah, hell of a threat... Who is the threat here?Sam Lowry said:The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
The simple reason Russia offers the best chance of stability is this: stability is what Russia actually wants. Our foreign policy since the Cold War has mostly been geared in the opposite direction. "Creative destruction" on a geopolitical scale is the idea. Of course it's always someone else's country that gets destroyed, at least so far.
There are no freedom fighters or communists involved here. The Soviet Union is history, and Ukrainian "democracy" is a sham.FLBear5630 said:Yet, it is always the one that is fighting to be free that asks for our help. You seem to think that the Communist/Socialist side is just in their actions and the nasty, greedy US is trying to destabilize. Yet, it seems to be the Communists that invade...Sam Lowry said:We've used Ukraine to fight Russia off and on since WWII. In many ways it was a laboratory for the kind of dirty work we became known for in the latter half of the century. Tens of thousands of people died as a result. We say it's all part of the game, but it's a different game when you're messing around in a buffer zone as opposed to targeting a great power.FLBear5630 said:Ukraine was harmless and an economic partner. Putin and Russia rewarded them by invading, twice. Yeah, hell of a threat... Who is the threat here?Sam Lowry said:The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
The simple reason Russia offers the best chance of stability is this: stability is what Russia actually wants. Our foreign policy since the Cold War has mostly been geared in the opposite direction. "Creative destruction" on a geopolitical scale is the idea. Of course it's always someone else's country that gets destroyed, at least so far.
Sam Lowry said:There are no freedom fighters or communists involved here. The Soviet Union is history, and Ukrainian "democracy" is a sham.FLBear5630 said:Yet, it is always the one that is fighting to be free that asks for our help. You seem to think that the Communist/Socialist side is just in their actions and the nasty, greedy US is trying to destabilize. Yet, it seems to be the Communists that invade...Sam Lowry said:We've used Ukraine to fight Russia off and on since WWII. In many ways it was a laboratory for the kind of dirty work we became known for in the latter half of the century. Tens of thousands of people died as a result. We say it's all part of the game, but it's a different game when you're messing around in a buffer zone as opposed to targeting a great power.FLBear5630 said:Ukraine was harmless and an economic partner. Putin and Russia rewarded them by invading, twice. Yeah, hell of a threat... Who is the threat here?Sam Lowry said:The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
The simple reason Russia offers the best chance of stability is this: stability is what Russia actually wants. Our foreign policy since the Cold War has mostly been geared in the opposite direction. "Creative destruction" on a geopolitical scale is the idea. Of course it's always someone else's country that gets destroyed, at least so far.
So the Soviet Union didn't agree to their independence in 1990s? Or are we cherry picking what counts and what doesn't? Next you will tell us that Ukraine really doesn't want to be independent. I guess this is acting out to get attention? Ukraine yearns to be under Russia again? Well if you give Putin enough time to move Russians into Crimea and Donbas you will get that response.
I guess Florida should go by ack to Spain. You are one of the only Americans I know that backs that a Nation struggling to be free and wants to move to the west go back to being Communist or worse under Putin.
Ahh....Sam channeling Archie Bunker....trey3216 said:Quote:Because they're the only ones who are acting in any way rationally. A neutral Ukraine would have been better, but failing that, Russia offers the best chance of stability.Quote:Quote:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.Quote:I thought you were against Ukraine?Quote:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Quote:Quote:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.Quote:Quote:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.Quote:
LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Why, in any universe, does Russia need to win the war??
"Boy the way Andropov played
Songs that made the tanks parade
Gee the Czechs they had it made
Those were the days
And you knew who you were then
saving the Hungarians
Mister, we could use a man
like Ceausescu again
Didn't need no liberties
just a gentle Cuban breeze
Boomer boats below the seas
Those were the days...."
Yes, because at that time Ukraine declared its intention to become permanently neutral and not participate in any military blocs.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:There are no freedom fighters or communists involved here. The Soviet Union is history, and Ukrainian "democracy" is a sham.FLBear5630 said:Yet, it is always the one that is fighting to be free that asks for our help. You seem to think that the Communist/Socialist side is just in their actions and the nasty, greedy US is trying to destabilize. Yet, it seems to be the Communists that invade...Sam Lowry said:We've used Ukraine to fight Russia off and on since WWII. In many ways it was a laboratory for the kind of dirty work we became known for in the latter half of the century. Tens of thousands of people died as a result. We say it's all part of the game, but it's a different game when you're messing around in a buffer zone as opposed to targeting a great power.FLBear5630 said:Ukraine was harmless and an economic partner. Putin and Russia rewarded them by invading, twice. Yeah, hell of a threat... Who is the threat here?Sam Lowry said:The difference is that Ukraine is an actual threat to Russia. The Iraq war was a scam, plain and simple.FLBear5630 said:So invading a sovereign Nation's border without UN approval is OK? Blowing up a dam and flooding out civilians is OK? Bombing a clearly marked theater, OK? Mass graves of 300 and 400 are good with you, no crime there.Sam Lowry said:Not against Ukraine per se. Russia needs to win the war, but I hate what's happening. It's a tragedy for the Ukrainians.FLBear5630 said:I thought you were against Ukraine?Sam Lowry said:Disgusting is throwing Ukraine against a brick wall just so we can virtue signal. You're cheering one of the biggest war crimes in US history, and that's really saying something.Bear8084 said:Sam Lowry said:We were happy enough when Russia drove the Nazis out of Poland. All they're doing now is finishing the job.HuMcK said:Sam Lowry said:The position of Ukraine's mechanized reserves, or what little is left of them, makes the target pretty obvious. Your assessment of Russian forces is delusional, but that kind of goes without saying at this point.whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne. And here's the news line this morning:Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
You continue to mis-read what is being reported...... Ukes are IN Robotyne. They are advancing "east of Robotyne" because that's the direction they decided to attack.....because there's a road up that line of advance which is not heavily mined (because Russia was using it for supply), because the area to the "right" of Robotyne on a more direct line toward Melitopol was too heavily defended (as I noted). And, I suspect will see over the coming weeks, the Robotyne axis will parallel the VN axis, support it on a direct to the Sea of Azov. In other words, Melitopol was never the primary objective. That was kinda obvious. Russia put so much effort into the defense of the approaches to Melitopol that they forced Uke decisionmaking. That's what fortifications are intended to do. To force the opponent to attack elsewhere. Problem is, Russia doesn't have enough to defend "elsewhere."
Uke doesn't have to capture any cities. Just cut the roads & railways and threaten to make a right turn along the coast to cut off the lines of retreat thereby encircling the Russian army. That will miss the heaviest portion of the Surovkin line, end-running it. Maneuver warfare. Liddell-Hart's "indirect approach."
All those bridge/railway strikes are paying off. Russian troops at the line are having to ration ammo. There are no fresh units. All are degraded to the point of combat ineffectiveness. And Moscow is ordering the generals to order the troops to fight to the last man in the trenches. There are historical parallels. None of them end up good for the defenders.
Bluntly, neither one of you should be making such absolute, declaratory statements right now as the campaign unfolds. Ukraine has taken objectively more ground than the Russians did over a longer period of time in the battle for Bakhmut, but the differences in the way you represent the events of those two battles are conspicuous.
I will say, it never stops being strange to see any American so invested in cheering for a Russian victory. It's akin to celebrating Germany's conquest of Poland (don't even start with the godwin's law crap, if you don't like the comparison then don't support the obvious aggressor invading their smaller neighbor).
Disgusting comment.
War crimes, which one is the biggest? Invasion? blowing up the dam? Displacing Ukrainian citizens? Threatening nuclear war? Bombing theaters? Mass graves?
Come on, are you so anti-west that whatever Putin does is good and whatever the US does is bad? You rail on Iraq constantly, which I am sure you will bring up in this conversation. That was horrible, but Putin was justified?
The simple reason Russia offers the best chance of stability is this: stability is what Russia actually wants. Our foreign policy since the Cold War has mostly been geared in the opposite direction. "Creative destruction" on a geopolitical scale is the idea. Of course it's always someone else's country that gets destroyed, at least so far.
So the Soviet Union didn't agree to their independence in 1990s?
Probably would have stayed that way if Russia had refrained from poisoning their Presidential candidates and militarily invading them. Ukraine wasn't looking to join NATO before 2014, what they wanted was to be in the EU.
The Ukrainian people weren't looking to join, but their government first changed the policy in 2005.HuMcK said:
Probably would have stayed that way if Russia had refrained from poisoning their Presidential candidates and militarily invading them. Ukraine wasn't looking to join NATO before 2014, what they wanted was to be in the EU.
LOL at Russia bringing stability. Ukraine was a piggy bank for Putin and his oligarch friends, and EU membership was going to poke a huge hole in their financial scam. You're seeing the blood and treasure they (Russia) are willing to exhaust to hang on to this, particularly the regions most important to Oligarch interests. Russia is a tin pot nation with nukes who can only influence countries in flux and conflict. It's the identifying factor in all nations they are partners with because they have little to no upside to offer in return. Why is Ukraine considered corrupt? Because it is too Russian in its methods and means both economically and politically.
But according to some, they are also corrupt (and in turn, so is America!!!) because they've wanted to get away from that for 32 years now and it's taken a while to shake free of Russia's 'prison economy'.ATL Bear said:
LOL at Russia bringing stability. Ukraine was a piggy bank for Putin and his oligarch friends, and EU membership was going to poke a huge hole in their financial scam. You're seeing the blood and treasure they (Russia) are willing to exhaust to hang on to this, particularly the regions most important to Oligarch interests. Russia is a tin pot nation with nukes who can only influence countries in flux and conflict. It's the identifying factor in all nations they are partners with because they have little to no upside to offer in return. Why is Ukraine considered corrupt? Because it is too Russian in its methods and means both economically and politically.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Thats actually a pretty good description America's relationship to Ukraine, particularly with regard to the Bidens.ATL Bear said:
LOL at Russia bringing stability. Ukraine was a piggy bank for Putin and his oligarch friends, and EU membership was going to poke a huge hole in their financial scam. You're seeing the blood and treasure they (Russia) are willing to exhaust to hang on to this, particularly the regions most important to Oligarch interests. Russia is a tin pot nation with nukes who can only influence countries in flux and conflict. It's the identifying factor in all nations they are partners with because they have little to no upside to offer in return. Why is Ukraine considered corrupt? Because it is too Russian in its methods and means both economically and politically.
Or not...whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne.Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.
Quote:
Aug 21, 2023 - Press ISW
Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on August 20 and August 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces reached the central part of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through some Russian defenses south of Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv). Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces succeeded in the direction southeast of Robotyne and south of Mala Tokmachka, and that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked east of Robotyne. Malyar and Russian sources stated that fighting is ongoing in Robotyne.
Keep up clownSam Lowry said:Or not...whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne.Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.Quote:
Aug 21, 2023 - Press ISW
Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on August 20 and August 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces reached the central part of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through some Russian defenses south of Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv). Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces succeeded in the direction southeast of Robotyne and south of Mala Tokmachka, and that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked east of Robotyne. Malyar and Russian sources stated that fighting is ongoing in Robotyne.
https://www.rferl.org/amp/ukraine-drone-attacks-russia-war-shelling-airports-moscow/32558375.html
This place is toxic. Unsubscribing
-Bono/Chitwood/Norman Dale/Sunny Ortiz/John Galt/and soon to be The Toxic Avenger
-Bono/Chitwood/Norman Dale/Sunny Ortiz/John Galt/and soon to be The Toxic Avenger
Sam Lowry said:Or not...whiterock said:LOL they've taken Robotyne.Sam Lowry said:The southeastern movement is just Ukrainian troops looking for a way around Robotyne. It's too soon to even think of calling it a "trend."whiterock said:As 8084's post suggested, WAPO got played. False premise that Melitopol was the actual objective.Sam Lowry said:
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won't reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine's counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won't fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea in this year's push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia's brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine's forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
First problem: Melitopol for sure would be the preferred target, but it is too well defended. Main thrust will be elsewhere, and head straight to the Sea of Azov. If one pushes for Melitopol, one will indeed sever the land bridge, but also allow Russian troops to retrograde slowly all the way back to Crimea. Pushing for Berdaynsk, however, threatens to flank Melitopol (thru an easier avenue of advance) and cut off lines of retreat, thereby forcing a rapid Russian withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Goal of all that would be to get most of the Russian expeditionary force bottled up in Crimea and then besiege. Crimea does not have the food/water to stay long unless the Kerch Bridge remains intact, which it will not.
Second problem: The Robotyne axis, if you look at it carefully, is not actually pushing directly toward Melitopol . It's trending SE. That, combined with above, leads me to assess the Robotyne assault as a fixing/flanking action in support of the main thrust from Velyke Novosilka.
Punching thru the line is one thing, but the depth one can penetrate is dependent on widening the shoulders of the breach. That's what Robotyne is. A screening action for the main thrust for the VN assault, which is accelerating its rate of advance the last few days. Russian units badly degraded, lots of empty trenches.
Russia has no reserves to throw at the breech. It must reposition from elsewhere. Problem is, UKE is threatening to breach in three other areas (Kozachi Laheri, Robotyne, Bakhmut). So in the pending breakout at Urozaine, Russia is have to fight a retrograde action with progressively degraded units. Remember that post a while back where I described UKE needing to present Russia with a range of bad options. That's where we are now. Russia has no "good" option to respond to any of these problems.
The Kerch Bridge has only existed for three or four years. The idea that Crimea will wither and fall like a ripe fruit without it was always absurd.
Ukraine's fixing actions are long done. It's Russia that's now doing shaping and fixing in preparation for their general offensive.Quote:
Aug 21, 2023 - Press ISW
Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on August 20 and August 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces reached the central part of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through some Russian defenses south of Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv). Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces succeeded in the direction southeast of Robotyne and south of Mala Tokmachka, and that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked east of Robotyne. Malyar and Russian sources stated that fighting is ongoing in Robotyne.
Lol, clown. That is pretty much confirmation of Whiterock's comment.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.