Russia mobilizes

280,535 Views | 4259 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by sombear
trey3216
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KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


Such a reasonable, reserved man. Starving the people in other countries he's trying to exploit.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
sombear
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KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.
Yes, the war that he started
KaiBear
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.

FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.




Huh, funny response.

You seem worried Ukraine where we are doing nothing but supplying material and info is a preclude to WW3.

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.




Huh, funny response.

You seem worried Ukraine where we are doing nothing but supplying material and info is a preclude to WW3.

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?
That we have not already conducted naval operations to provoke conflict with Russia, such as a freedom of navigation cruise, is a torpedo to the argument that the USA is seeking a war with Russia.

In reality, the US has no warships in the Black Sea. At the outbreak of war, Turkey exercised its rights to close the Bosporus to all ships of war. Russia had anticipated Turkey would do that and had already recalled its entire Black Sea fleet to home port. So US/Russian conflict in the Black Sea could only happen IF the US decided to deploy a warship and Turkey decided to allow it thru the Bosporus. A US destroyer did a port call AT the Bosporus a couple of months ago, but did not transit.

The scenario for a US war with Russia would involve a Bulgarian or Romanian or Turkish ship in the Black Sea conducting freedom of navigation operation to provoke a Russian response, thereby creating a crisis which could spark direct NATO response. That could by extension drag the US into war with Russia.
Realitybites
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And? RT is regime media. So are CNN, MSNBC, and Fox. To get an accurate picture of the world you listen to all of them and see what lines up with reality. Western reporting about the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been objectively wrong.
Realitybites
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Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?

The psychology surrounding the two situations is completely different. First, the Chinese view of national security is not tempered by losing 25 million people on the eastern front during world war 2. Second, our national security apparatus has no ideological objection to the Chinese way of carrying out foreign or domestic policy. On the other hand, it hates Russia on an ideological level that goes beyond mere power politics.

If there is a war with China we have already lost. We would never have beaten the Soviet Union had we given them MFN trade status and compromised our supply chain. Four years after Covid, they still run through China.
FLBear5630
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Realitybites said:

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?

The psychology surrounding the two situations is completely different. First, the Chinese view of national security is not tempered by losing 25 million people on the eastern front during world war 2. Second, our national security apparatus has no ideological objection to the Chinese way of carrying out foreign or domestic policy. On the other hand, it hates Russia on an ideological level that goes beyond mere power politics.

If there is a war with China we have already lost. We would never have beaten the Soviet Union had we given them MFN trade status and compromised our supply chain. Four years after Covid, they still run through China.
Watch, the Freedom of Navigation of the Black Sea will come into question. This Administration is comfortable with that tact and believes they have a leg to stand on. They have done it repeatedly with China.

As for US ships in the Black Sea, that will be coming. I expect you will see a Destroyer Task Force be requested by Ukraine and it become an issue. In my opinion, if this will escalate, this is where it will balloon. Just because the Biden Administration has done it before and the World has approved. Anything on land or air is an escalation into unchartered territory. Can see lawyers making this arguement.

I would not be surprised if we have a sub or two there, but that is a different discussion.
Sam Lowry
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whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

HuMcK said:

Just right off the top, the assessment that Russia's original strategy was to take Just Donetsk and Luhansk and then press for neutrality is laughably wrong. If that were true, then why did they rush for Kyiv and Karkhiv? Why is their main axis of advance happening up in Karkhiv right now? Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.

McGregor is consistently pro Russian in his views, and a regular guest on RT, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he is advancing their narratives for them still.
McGregor is simple to understand. Odds are more likely, for reasons pf policy expediency rather than military conditions, that the outcome would be a settlement short of the Uke goal of total expulsion of Russian forces. So, when it's all over, his predictions will be easily spun as prescient. He will be lionized by many as a genius. Sell lots of books. Get paid to make a lot of speeches. Build a large Twitter following to monetize. Perhaps get an endowed seat in a think-tank somewhere. If not here, then abroad. It's a sound business model. Like the guy who always predicts a market crash. Every few years, a correction will be big enough for make him look like a genius.


I agree with that…

And I appreciate the analysis instead of just calling him a Russian troll (the stand insult these days).

I do think he is taking the easy way out in his predictions than giving us real insight.

His predictions for this war at the beginning have turned out to be very wrong and he constantly over estimates Russian military ability.

In his world Russia is always about to turn its economy to a war footing and begin producing overwhelming military equipment and new Russian troops are gonna launch a counter offensive that smashes the Ukrainians….instead nothing happens and the Russian conscripts just keep digging more trench lines and Russia keeps relying on China and Iran for ammo and drones.
yep. And Ukraine is bringing on-line new domestic production of ammunition, advancing drone technology, etc..... Ukraine is getting stronger, while Russia is getting weaker.

Ukraine has maintained laser focus on interdicting Russian supply lines, and as a result, shortages of ammo & food & medicine are chronic in the Russian trenches. Russia, by contrast, has not spent much effort at all to do the same to Ukraine. EX: Russia is functionally out of smart weapons, and is having to use surface-air missiles as unguided rockets to hit Ukrainian urban areas. No aiming possible. Point & shoot. "Inexplicable" doesn't quite capture the magnitude of it. Incompetence is more like it. Meanwhile, Ukraine is using $2k drones to take out aircraft worth tens of millions of dollars.

Br'er Bear be snagged up in the briar patch...
This is fanciful even by your standards. There are videos of Russian smart weapons being used every day.
Sure, there are 100 or more snippets issued every day of the same Russian smart-weapon that got used last week. Russians are really good at that kind of disinformation.....putting out a dozen different videos taken from several different angles of the same destroyed tank. Etc....

Don't eat the cheese, buddy.
This is old spin based on a couple of stories from the very beginning of the offensive. There's been a steady stream of geolocated videos since then. Russia has reportedly tripled production of its new Lancet drones, which can carry thermobaric or anti-tank warheads.
Sam Lowry
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whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

HuMcK said:

Just right off the top, the assessment that Russia's original strategy was to take Just Donetsk and Luhansk and then press for neutrality is laughably wrong. If that were true, then why did they rush for Kyiv and Karkhiv? Why is their main axis of advance happening up in Karkhiv right now? Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.

McGregor is consistently pro Russian in his views, and a regular guest on RT, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he is advancing their narratives for them still.
McGregor is simple to understand. Odds are more likely, for reasons pf policy expediency rather than military conditions, that the outcome would be a settlement short of the Uke goal of total expulsion of Russian forces. So, when it's all over, his predictions will be easily spun as prescient. He will be lionized by many as a genius. Sell lots of books. Get paid to make a lot of speeches. Build a large Twitter following to monetize. Perhaps get an endowed seat in a think-tank somewhere. If not here, then abroad. It's a sound business model. Like the guy who always predicts a market crash. Every few years, a correction will be big enough for make him look like a genius.


I agree with that…

And I appreciate the analysis instead of just calling him a Russian troll (the standard insult these days).

I do think he is taking the easy way out in his predictions than giving us real insight.

His predictions for this war at the beginning have turned out to be very wrong and he constantly over estimates Russian military ability.

In his world Russia is always about to turn its economy to a war footing and begin producing overwhelming military equipment and new Russian troops are gonna launch a counter offensive that smashes the Ukrainians in mere weeks….instead nothing happens and the Russian conscripts just keep digging more trench lines and Russia keeps relying on China and Iran for ammo and drones.
He's right that Russia will go on the offensive. It's just a question of when.
With what?

Russian logistics is knackered. They can't train and equip the troops they have, or support them with artillery, or armored vehicles, etc..... All they can do is hustle cannon fodder to the front to be mowed down, which is pretty much what they've been doing all along to no effect.
You should know, as we've discussed troop strength before. The Ukrainians were outnumbered to begin with. They took crippling losses at Bakhmut (against our advice) and haven't stopped struggling since. Aside from some tidbits of speculation by ISW, there's no sign that Russian defenses are struggling as you claim.
KaiBear
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.




Huh, funny response.

You seem worried Ukraine where we are doing nothing but supplying material and info is a preclude to WW3.

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?
Bizarre response.

1. US involvement in WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, and other wars began with 'supplying material and info'.

2. Huge difference between the South China Sea in peace time and an active war zone in the Black Sea.

3. The key NATO player in the Black Sea region is Turkey, not the US.
FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.




Huh, funny response.

You seem worried Ukraine where we are doing nothing but supplying material and info is a preclude to WW3.

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?
Bizarre response.

1. US involvement in WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, and other wars began with 'supplying material and info'.

2. Huge difference between the South China Sea in peace time and an active war zone in the Black Sea.

3. The key NATO player in the Black Sea region is Turkey, not the US.
Funny, I see this is where actual US/Russia conflict can occur in the short term without any change in policy and the Biden Admin is comfortable with it.

If you also look at history, there are multiple wars that started with naval operations that went bad. I guess WW1 could go both ways since they sunk the Luisitania saying it was supplying arms, so I gues that one is a push.
Redbrickbear
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Realitybites said:

And? RT is regime media. So are CNN, MSNBC, and Fox. To get an accurate picture of the world you listen to all of them and see what lines up with reality. Western reporting about the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been objectively wrong.

Amen to that....
KaiBear
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.




Huh, funny response.

You seem worried Ukraine where we are doing nothing but supplying material and info is a preclude to WW3.

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?
Bizarre response.

1. US involvement in WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, and other wars began with 'supplying material and info'.

2. Huge difference between the South China Sea in peace time and an active war zone in the Black Sea.

3. The key NATO player in the Black Sea region is Turkey, not the US.
Funny, I see this is where actual US/Russia conflict can occur in the short term without any change in policy and the Biden Admin is comfortable with it.

If you also look at history, there are multiple wars that started with naval operations that went bad. I guess WW1 could go both ways since they sunk the Luisitania saying it was supplying arms, so I gues that one is a push.


If the Biden administration does naval patrols in the Black Sea they are looking for an 'incident'.

It's an old ploy and the majority of the US public will buy into it until the body bags stack up.

Of course if the 'incident' leads to nuclear war there will be no need for body bags, a draft or anything else .

People still don't get it……our Commander in Chief has dementia. Not even a close call and this mentality impaired goofus has control of our nuclear deterrent.

Unbelievably bad situation.

Most dangerous to the people of the United States in its entire history.

And for what ?

A country the US has never cared about for over 200 years.

Sam Lowry
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CNN -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has fired his defense minister, citing the need for "new approaches" as the war with Russia enters its 19th month.

"This week, parliament will be asked to make a personnel decision … I have decided to replace the minister of defense of Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov has gone through more than 550 days of full-scale war," Zelensky said.

His removal comes in the wake of a number of corruption scandals involving Ukraine's Ministry of Defense.

Zelensky fired a slew of senior officials at the start of the year over a scandal linked to the procurement of wartime supplies; the country's deputy defense minister resigned after facing allegations of corruption; then in August, Zelensky dismissed all officials in charge of regional military recruitment centers, citing numerous ongoing criminal proceedings.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/03/europe/ukraine-zelensky-fires-defense-minister-reznikov-intl-hnk/index.html
Doc Holliday
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Sam Lowry said:

CNN -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has fired his defense minister, citing the need for "new approaches" as the war with Russia enters its 19th month.

"This week, parliament will be asked to make a personnel decision … I have decided to replace the minister of defense of Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov has gone through more than 550 days of full-scale war," Zelensky said.

His removal comes in the wake of a number of corruption scandals involving Ukraine's Ministry of Defense.

Zelensky fired a slew of senior officials at the start of the year over a scandal linked to the procurement of wartime supplies; the country's deputy defense minister resigned after facing allegations of corruption; then in August, Zelensky dismissed all officials in charge of regional military recruitment centers, citing numerous ongoing criminal proceedings.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/03/europe/ukraine-zelensky-fires-defense-minister-reznikov-intl-hnk/index.html
The DC regime told NYT it's time to prepare the sh itlibs for the letdown that's going to happen in Ukraine.
Redbrickbear
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KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.




Huh, funny response.

You seem worried Ukraine where we are doing nothing but supplying material and info is a preclude to WW3.

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?
Bizarre response.

1. US involvement in WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, and other wars began with 'supplying material and info'.

2. Huge difference between the South China Sea in peace time and an active war zone in the Black Sea.

3. The key NATO player in the Black Sea region is Turkey, not the US.
Funny, I see this is where actual US/Russia conflict can occur in the short term without any change in policy and the Biden Admin is comfortable with it.

If you also look at history, there are multiple wars that started with naval operations that went bad. I guess WW1 could go both ways since they sunk the Luisitania saying it was supplying arms, so I gues that one is a push.


If the Biden administration does naval patrols in the Black Sea they are looking for an 'incident'.

It's an old ploy and the majority of the US public will buy into it until the body bags stack up.


Of course if the 'incident' leads to nuclear war there will be no need for body bags, a draft or anything else .

People still don't get it……our Commander in Chief has dementia. Not even a close call and this mentality impaired goofus has control of our nuclear deterrent.

Unbelievably bad situation.

Most dangerous to the people of the United States in its entire history.

And for what ?

A country the US has never cared about for over 200 years.



Getting Gulf of Tonkin vibes....


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident

Unfortunely, most Americans just don't know or care about history.


[The Gulf of Tonkin incident (Vietnamese: S kin Vnh Bc B) was an international confrontation that led to the United States engaging more directly in the Vietnam War. It consisted of a confrontation on August 2, 1964, when United States forces were carrying out covert operations close to North Vietnamese territorial waters and North Vietnamese forces responded. The United States government falsely claimed that a second incident occurred on August 4, 1964, between North Vietnamese and United States ships in the waters of the Gulf of Tonkin. Originally, US military claims blamed North Vietnam for the confrontation and the ostensible, but in fact imaginary, incident on August 4. Later investigation revealed that the second attack never happened; ]
KaiBear
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Redbrickbear said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:


Surprised it took Putin even this long to close the grain shipments.

War is a *****.


You want to worry about direct Russia/US confrontation, be prepared for Freedom of Navigation missions in the black sea.
Doubt it.

Such an action would bring a US-Russian war.




Huh, funny response.

You seem worried Ukraine where we are doing nothing but supplying material and info is a preclude to WW3.

Yet, Freedom of Navigation where we have repeatedly clashed with China and have not backed down is not a worry?
Bizarre response.

1. US involvement in WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, and other wars began with 'supplying material and info'.

2. Huge difference between the South China Sea in peace time and an active war zone in the Black Sea.

3. The key NATO player in the Black Sea region is Turkey, not the US.
Funny, I see this is where actual US/Russia conflict can occur in the short term without any change in policy and the Biden Admin is comfortable with it.

If you also look at history, there are multiple wars that started with naval operations that went bad. I guess WW1 could go both ways since they sunk the Luisitania saying it was supplying arms, so I gues that one is a push.


If the Biden administration does naval patrols in the Black Sea they are looking for an 'incident'.

It's an old ploy and the majority of the US public will buy into it until the body bags stack up.


Of course if the 'incident' leads to nuclear war there will be no need for body bags, a draft or anything else .

People still don't get it……our Commander in Chief has dementia. Not even a close call and this mentality impaired goofus has control of our nuclear deterrent.

Unbelievably bad situation.

Most dangerous to the people of the United States in its entire history.

And for what ?

A country the US has never cared about for over 200 years.



Getting Gulf of Tonkin vibes....


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident

Unfortunely, most Americans just don't know or care about history.


[The Gulf of Tonkin incident (Vietnamese: S kin Vnh Bc B) was an international confrontation that led to the United States engaging more directly in the Vietnam War. It consisted of a confrontation on August 2, 1964, when United States forces were carrying out covert operations close to North Vietnamese territorial waters and North Vietnamese forces responded. The United States government falsely claimed that a second incident occurred on August 4, 1964, between North Vietnamese and United States ships in the waters of the Gulf of Tonkin. Originally, US military claims blamed North Vietnam for the confrontation and the ostensible, but in fact imaginary, incident on August 4. Later investigation revealed that the second attack never happened; ]
Gulf of Tonkin

US Navy escorting British cargo ships and attacking German U-boats in the North Atlantic months BEFORE our entry into WW2.

USS Panay bombed by Japanese planes while in the middle of the Chinese-Japanese War PRIOR to our entry into WW2.

ATL Bear
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Realitybites said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feint

If it had been Putin's intention to take Kiev, it would have happened.

Quote:

Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.


Nonsense. We sponsored a coup there in Maidan. NATO membership for Ukraine has been a constant Democrat/Neocon talking point.

https://rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html

Some people act like Vladimir Putin woke up one morning in 2022 and decided to invade Ukraine for no reason. Whatever you think about him, he isn't an irrational risk taker.
Oh boy…
Redbrickbear
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ATL Bear said:

Realitybites said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feint

If it had been Putin's intention to take Kiev, it would have happened.

Quote:

Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.


Nonsense. We sponsored a coup there in Maidan. NATO membership for Ukraine has been a constant Democrat/Neocon talking point.

https://rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html

Some people act like Vladimir Putin woke up one morning in 2022 and decided to invade Ukraine for no reason. Whatever you think about him, he isn't an irrational risk taker.
Oh boy…


Who can really know what Putin would or what not do (he is old, age 70, and some reports say he is already suffering from dementia)

But let's not pretend Victoria Nuland and the State Department (probably CIA as well) were not all over the 2014 Ukrainian coup/protests/revolution.




ATL Bear
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Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

Realitybites said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feint

If it had been Putin's intention to take Kiev, it would have happened.

Quote:

Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.


Nonsense. We sponsored a coup there in Maidan. NATO membership for Ukraine has been a constant Democrat/Neocon talking point.

https://rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html

Some people act like Vladimir Putin woke up one morning in 2022 and decided to invade Ukraine for no reason. Whatever you think about him, he isn't an irrational risk taker.
Oh boy…


Who can really know what Putin would or what not do (he is old, age 70, and some reports say he is already suffering from dementia)

But let's not pretend Victoria Nuland and the State Department (probably CIA as well) were not all over the 2014 Ukrainian coup/protests/revolution.





Putin and his cronies have been invading and plundering Ukraine since 2002. The focus on 2014 is America hating virtue signaling. Keep the excuses coming, and keep defending "Mr Rational".
Redbrickbear
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whiterock
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Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

HuMcK said:

Just right off the top, the assessment that Russia's original strategy was to take Just Donetsk and Luhansk and then press for neutrality is laughably wrong. If that were true, then why did they rush for Kyiv and Karkhiv? Why is their main axis of advance happening up in Karkhiv right now? Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.

McGregor is consistently pro Russian in his views, and a regular guest on RT, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he is advancing their narratives for them still.
McGregor is simple to understand. Odds are more likely, for reasons pf policy expediency rather than military conditions, that the outcome would be a settlement short of the Uke goal of total expulsion of Russian forces. So, when it's all over, his predictions will be easily spun as prescient. He will be lionized by many as a genius. Sell lots of books. Get paid to make a lot of speeches. Build a large Twitter following to monetize. Perhaps get an endowed seat in a think-tank somewhere. If not here, then abroad. It's a sound business model. Like the guy who always predicts a market crash. Every few years, a correction will be big enough for make him look like a genius.


I agree with that…

And I appreciate the analysis instead of just calling him a Russian troll (the stand insult these days).

I do think he is taking the easy way out in his predictions than giving us real insight.

His predictions for this war at the beginning have turned out to be very wrong and he constantly over estimates Russian military ability.

In his world Russia is always about to turn its economy to a war footing and begin producing overwhelming military equipment and new Russian troops are gonna launch a counter offensive that smashes the Ukrainians….instead nothing happens and the Russian conscripts just keep digging more trench lines and Russia keeps relying on China and Iran for ammo and drones.
yep. And Ukraine is bringing on-line new domestic production of ammunition, advancing drone technology, etc..... Ukraine is getting stronger, while Russia is getting weaker.

Ukraine has maintained laser focus on interdicting Russian supply lines, and as a result, shortages of ammo & food & medicine are chronic in the Russian trenches. Russia, by contrast, has not spent much effort at all to do the same to Ukraine. EX: Russia is functionally out of smart weapons, and is having to use surface-air missiles as unguided rockets to hit Ukrainian urban areas. No aiming possible. Point & shoot. "Inexplicable" doesn't quite capture the magnitude of it. Incompetence is more like it. Meanwhile, Ukraine is using $2k drones to take out aircraft worth tens of millions of dollars.

Br'er Bear be snagged up in the briar patch...
This is fanciful even by your standards. There are videos of Russian smart weapons being used every day.
Sure, there are 100 or more snippets issued every day of the same Russian smart-weapon that got used last week. Russians are really good at that kind of disinformation.....putting out a dozen different videos taken from several different angles of the same destroyed tank. Etc....

Don't eat the cheese, buddy.
This is old spin based on a couple of stories from the very beginning of the offensive. There's been a steady stream of geolocated videos since then. Russia has reportedly tripled production of its new Lancet drones, which can carry thermobaric or anti-tank warheads.
Here's two posts which illustrate what you're missing.
Uke has decimated Russian artillery systems with highly effective counter-battery fire. Uke has far better (quicker) fire control, far more accurate systems. Yes, Russia has marginally more tubes, but higher Uke fire rates means effective Uke fire superiority in artillery. Russia could use missiles to offset, but they have nothing approaching a HIMARS system and have largely depleted their more accurate systems, leaving them to entrust the majority of rocket fires to the S-300 surface to air system as indirect missile fire = highly inaccurate because it's "off-label use." Yes, it lobs ordnance down range, but its designed to use at aerial targets and has no giudance system for surface-to-surface use. As a result, it's so inaccurate it has negligible effect.


Here, you see that in action on video:


Russia may indeed pull some older systems out of mothballs and create new arty units, but they will be raw recruits using outdated tubes and.....(this is critical).....they may not have a supply chain to get it all into theater. Uke small units have already penetrated beyond 2nd & 3rd Surovikin lines at Verbove and Uke is now moving heavy equipment up to clear obstacles. Also continuing to widen the salient to the west and east. All confirmed with geolocation and satellite imagery. Russia has front-loaded troops on the first lines and have sparse defense of 2nd & 3rd lines. Most fortifications beyond that are not even manned. Russian units in place are long degraded beyond combat effectiveness and Russia has no reserves to throw into the breech without pulling troops from the line elsewhere, which of course will only increase the numbers of opportunities for Uke to exploit. Russia is now struggling to cope with an increasing array of "bad choices."

Uke appears poised to sever the land bridge well before Halloween.
Sam Lowry
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whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

HuMcK said:

Just right off the top, the assessment that Russia's original strategy was to take Just Donetsk and Luhansk and then press for neutrality is laughably wrong. If that were true, then why did they rush for Kyiv and Karkhiv? Why is their main axis of advance happening up in Karkhiv right now? Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.

McGregor is consistently pro Russian in his views, and a regular guest on RT, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he is advancing their narratives for them still.
McGregor is simple to understand. Odds are more likely, for reasons pf policy expediency rather than military conditions, that the outcome would be a settlement short of the Uke goal of total expulsion of Russian forces. So, when it's all over, his predictions will be easily spun as prescient. He will be lionized by many as a genius. Sell lots of books. Get paid to make a lot of speeches. Build a large Twitter following to monetize. Perhaps get an endowed seat in a think-tank somewhere. If not here, then abroad. It's a sound business model. Like the guy who always predicts a market crash. Every few years, a correction will be big enough for make him look like a genius.


I agree with that…

And I appreciate the analysis instead of just calling him a Russian troll (the stand insult these days).

I do think he is taking the easy way out in his predictions than giving us real insight.

His predictions for this war at the beginning have turned out to be very wrong and he constantly over estimates Russian military ability.

In his world Russia is always about to turn its economy to a war footing and begin producing overwhelming military equipment and new Russian troops are gonna launch a counter offensive that smashes the Ukrainians….instead nothing happens and the Russian conscripts just keep digging more trench lines and Russia keeps relying on China and Iran for ammo and drones.
yep. And Ukraine is bringing on-line new domestic production of ammunition, advancing drone technology, etc..... Ukraine is getting stronger, while Russia is getting weaker.

Ukraine has maintained laser focus on interdicting Russian supply lines, and as a result, shortages of ammo & food & medicine are chronic in the Russian trenches. Russia, by contrast, has not spent much effort at all to do the same to Ukraine. EX: Russia is functionally out of smart weapons, and is having to use surface-air missiles as unguided rockets to hit Ukrainian urban areas. No aiming possible. Point & shoot. "Inexplicable" doesn't quite capture the magnitude of it. Incompetence is more like it. Meanwhile, Ukraine is using $2k drones to take out aircraft worth tens of millions of dollars.

Br'er Bear be snagged up in the briar patch...
This is fanciful even by your standards. There are videos of Russian smart weapons being used every day.
Sure, there are 100 or more snippets issued every day of the same Russian smart-weapon that got used last week. Russians are really good at that kind of disinformation.....putting out a dozen different videos taken from several different angles of the same destroyed tank. Etc....

Don't eat the cheese, buddy.
This is old spin based on a couple of stories from the very beginning of the offensive. There's been a steady stream of geolocated videos since then. Russia has reportedly tripled production of its new Lancet drones, which can carry thermobaric or anti-tank warheads.
Here's two posts which illustrate what you're missing.
Uke has decimated Russian artillery systems with highly effective counter-battery fire. Uke has far better (quicker) fire control, far more accurate systems. Yes, Russia has marginally more tubes, but higher Uke fire rates means effective Uke fire superiority in artillery. Russia could use missiles to offset, but they have nothing approaching a HIMARS system and have largely depleted their more accurate systems, leaving them to entrust the majority of rocket fires to the S-300 surface to air system as indirect missile fire = highly inaccurate because it's "off-label use." Yes, it lobs ordnance down range, but its designed to use at aerial targets and has no giudance system for surface-to-surface use. As a result, it's so inaccurate it has negligible effect.


Here, you see that in action on video:


Russia may indeed pull some older systems out of mothballs and create new arty units, but they will be raw recruits using outdated tubes and.....(this is critical).....they may not have a supply chain to get it all into theater. Uke small units have already penetrated beyond 2nd & 3rd Surovikin lines at Verbove and Uke is now moving heavy equipment up to clear obstacles. Also continuing to widen the salient to the west and east. All confirmed with geolocation and satellite imagery. Russia has front-loaded troops on the first lines and have sparse defense of 2nd & 3rd lines. Most fortifications beyond that are not even manned. Russian units in place are long degraded beyond combat effectiveness and Russia has no reserves to throw into the breech without pulling troops from the line elsewhere, which of course will only increase the numbers of opportunities for Uke to exploit. Russia is now struggling to cope with an increasing array of "bad choices."

Uke appears poised to sever the land bridge well before Halloween.
QFP.
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:


I've seen other reports of proliferating insurgent action. The approaching Uke army distracts Russian security operations and limits military response to take out insurgent groups. Insurgent groups are helping identify targets for HIMARs strikes, sbotage operations, etc.....

Textbook stuff. One builds networks of sleeper cell partisans....to await the opportunity to coordinate insurgent actions behind enemy lines with conventional operations at the front. Insurgents lose cover when they move into military operations, so this is highly risky activity and does expose their groups to high risk of discovery and elimination. But they can for a short period of time step the pace of operations...."hit and hide".....and hope for the cavalry to arrive before the Russians round everyone up. The fact that we see such activity escalating is a sign that Ukrainian high command believes the the big push is about to break thru, such as we see on the Orkhiv axis.
whiterock
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Uke drone attacks against IL76 bases in Russia has prompted this response - tires on tops of the wings of the IL76s to get standoff. Standoff theory is hardly a new idea and can work. See composite plates on western tanks (well engineered, effective) or the the armor cages on top of the T-72s (field expedient, useless) = the barrier causes ignition of the shaped charge before it hits the surface of the target, which greatly reduces the penetration of the charge. Ukes burned 4 IL76's last week with mini-drone strikes on the wings, which penetrated the fuel tanks, which made the fires unextinguishable = total loss of airframe.

Unfortunately, tires will make a resulting fire much harder to extinguish, so unless Russian fire control teams are lightning fast, the tires will only make things worse.

But this does show the laser-focus Uke has on Russian supply chain - going after transport planes as first priority rather than fighter/bomber aircraft = preventing Russia from offsetting damage to rails/bridges via air lift.

Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

Uke drone attacks against IL76 bases in Russia has prompted this response - tires on tops of the wings of the IL76s to get standoff. ......

Unfortunately, tires will make a resulting fire much harder to extinguish, so unless Russian fire control teams are lightning fast, the tires will only make things worse.

But this does show the laser-focus Uke has on Russian supply chain - going after transport planes as first priority rather than fighter/bomber aircraft = preventing Russia from offsetting damage to rails/bridges via air lift.




Well yea...and who do you think gave the Ukrainians that idea?

This war is being planned and coordinated not out of Kyiv...but out of N. Virginia
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Uke drone attacks against IL76 bases in Russia has prompted this response - tires on tops of the wings of the IL76s to get standoff. ......

Unfortunately, tires will make a resulting fire much harder to extinguish, so unless Russian fire control teams are lightning fast, the tires will only make things worse.

But this does show the laser-focus Uke has on Russian supply chain - going after transport planes as first priority rather than fighter/bomber aircraft = preventing Russia from offsetting damage to rails/bridges via air lift.




Well yea...and who do you think gave the Ukrainians that idea?

This war is being planned and coordinated not out of Kyiv...but out of N. Virginia
Oh, we're helping for sure, but the point of the post wasn't to make geniuses out of anybody, just to note that Uke has the better strategic plan, is executing it very very well, while Russia continues to flounder reactively and somewhat ineffectively. That will have a bearing on the outcome. Russia should be winning, should have already won. Yet they're definitely gonna finish out worse than where they are now. The only question is how much worse. Just incredible incompetence on the Russian side. An Aussie cardboard drone costing $1k took out an IL76 worth $35m. FOUR of them. And all Russia can do is stack tires on the wings.

Almost daily, I am reminded of my old NSA buddy's comment nearly 40 years ago...."Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons." Still is. Biggest underachiever in the history of humanity.
Sam Lowry
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whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Uke drone attacks against IL76 bases in Russia has prompted this response - tires on tops of the wings of the IL76s to get standoff. ......

Unfortunately, tires will make a resulting fire much harder to extinguish, so unless Russian fire control teams are lightning fast, the tires will only make things worse.

But this does show the laser-focus Uke has on Russian supply chain - going after transport planes as first priority rather than fighter/bomber aircraft = preventing Russia from offsetting damage to rails/bridges via air lift.




Well yea...and who do you think gave the Ukrainians that idea?

This war is being planned and coordinated not out of Kyiv...but out of N. Virginia
Oh, we're helping for sure, but the point of the post wasn't to make geniuses out of anybody, just to note that Uke has the better strategic plan, is executing it very very well, while Russia continues to flounder reactively and somewhat ineffectively. That will have a bearing on the outcome. Russia should be winning, should have already won. Yet they're definitely gonna finish out worse than where they are now. The only question is how much worse. Just incredible incompetence on the Russian side. An Aussie cardboard drone costing $1k took out an IL76 worth $35m. FOUR of them. And all Russia can do is stack tires on the wings.

Almost daily, I am reminded of my old NSA buddy's comment nearly 40 years ago...."Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons." Still is. Biggest underachiever in the history of humanity.
Not surprising since most of your analysis is about 40 years behind the times. As long as the last Japanese soldier on Guam can build a new blowgun, you're there to hail it as the next game-changer.
trey3216
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Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Uke drone attacks against IL76 bases in Russia has prompted this response - tires on tops of the wings of the IL76s to get standoff. ......

Unfortunately, tires will make a resulting fire much harder to extinguish, so unless Russian fire control teams are lightning fast, the tires will only make things worse.

But this does show the laser-focus Uke has on Russian supply chain - going after transport planes as first priority rather than fighter/bomber aircraft = preventing Russia from offsetting damage to rails/bridges via air lift.




Well yea...and who do you think gave the Ukrainians that idea?

This war is being planned and coordinated not out of Kyiv...but out of N. Virginia
Oh, we're helping for sure, but the point of the post wasn't to make geniuses out of anybody, just to note that Uke has the better strategic plan, is executing it very very well, while Russia continues to flounder reactively and somewhat ineffectively. That will have a bearing on the outcome. Russia should be winning, should have already won. Yet they're definitely gonna finish out worse than where they are now. The only question is how much worse. Just incredible incompetence on the Russian side. An Aussie cardboard drone costing $1k took out an IL76 worth $35m. FOUR of them. And all Russia can do is stack tires on the wings.

Almost daily, I am reminded of my old NSA buddy's comment nearly 40 years ago...."Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons." Still is. Biggest underachiever in the history of humanity.
Not surprising since most of your analysis is about 40 years behind the times. As long as the last Japanese soldier on Guam can build a new blowgun, you're there to hail it as the next game-changer.


Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
whiterock
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Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Uke drone attacks against IL76 bases in Russia has prompted this response - tires on tops of the wings of the IL76s to get standoff. ......

Unfortunately, tires will make a resulting fire much harder to extinguish, so unless Russian fire control teams are lightning fast, the tires will only make things worse.

But this does show the laser-focus Uke has on Russian supply chain - going after transport planes as first priority rather than fighter/bomber aircraft = preventing Russia from offsetting damage to rails/bridges via air lift.




Well yea...and who do you think gave the Ukrainians that idea?

This war is being planned and coordinated not out of Kyiv...but out of N. Virginia
Oh, we're helping for sure, but the point of the post wasn't to make geniuses out of anybody, just to note that Uke has the better strategic plan, is executing it very very well, while Russia continues to flounder reactively and somewhat ineffectively. That will have a bearing on the outcome. Russia should be winning, should have already won. Yet they're definitely gonna finish out worse than where they are now. The only question is how much worse. Just incredible incompetence on the Russian side. An Aussie cardboard drone costing $1k took out an IL76 worth $35m. FOUR of them. And all Russia can do is stack tires on the wings.

Almost daily, I am reminded of my old NSA buddy's comment nearly 40 years ago...."Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons." Still is. Biggest underachiever in the history of humanity.
Not surprising since most of your analysis is about 40 years behind the times. As long as the last Japanese soldier on Guam can build a new blowgun, you're there to hail it as the next game-changer.

LOL
Sam Lowry
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ATL Bear said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

Realitybites said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feint

If it had been Putin's intention to take Kiev, it would have happened.

Quote:

Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.


Nonsense. We sponsored a coup there in Maidan. NATO membership for Ukraine has been a constant Democrat/Neocon talking point.

https://rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html

Some people act like Vladimir Putin woke up one morning in 2022 and decided to invade Ukraine for no reason. Whatever you think about him, he isn't an irrational risk taker.
Oh boy…


Who can really know what Putin would or what not do (he is old, age 70, and some reports say he is already suffering from dementia)

But let's not pretend Victoria Nuland and the State Department (probably CIA as well) were not all over the 2014 Ukrainian coup/protests/revolution.





Putin and his cronies have been invading and plundering Ukraine since 2002. The focus on 2014 is America hating virtue signaling. Keep the excuses coming, and keep defending "Mr Rational".
Yes, who would have thought that after interfering in China, Italy, Greece, the Philippines, Korea, Albania, Germany, Iran, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Syria, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Haiti, Algeria, Ecuador, the Congo, Brazil, Peru, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, East Timor, Ghana, Uruguay, Chile, Bolivia, Iraq, Angola, Zaire, Jamaica, Grenada, Morocco, Libya, Nicaragua, Panama, Bulgaria, El Salvador, and Afghanistan, the CIA would...suddenly decide to interfere in Ukraine.

Can't be anything but anti-American virtue signaling.
Bear8084
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Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

Realitybites said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feint

If it had been Putin's intention to take Kiev, it would have happened.

Quote:

Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.


Nonsense. We sponsored a coup there in Maidan. NATO membership for Ukraine has been a constant Democrat/Neocon talking point.

https://rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html

Some people act like Vladimir Putin woke up one morning in 2022 and decided to invade Ukraine for no reason. Whatever you think about him, he isn't an irrational risk taker.
Oh boy…


Who can really know what Putin would or what not do (he is old, age 70, and some reports say he is already suffering from dementia)

But let's not pretend Victoria Nuland and the State Department (probably CIA as well) were not all over the 2014 Ukrainian coup/protests/revolution.





Putin and his cronies have been invading and plundering Ukraine since 2002. The focus on 2014 is America hating virtue signaling. Keep the excuses coming, and keep defending "Mr Rational".
Yes, who would have thought that after interfering in China, Italy, Greece, the Philippines, Korea, Albania, Germany, Iran, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Syria, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Haiti, Algeria, Ecuador, the Congo, Brazil, Peru, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, East Timor, Ghana, Uruguay, Chile, Bolivia, Iraq, Angola, Zaire, Jamaica, Grenada, Morocco, Libya, Nicaragua, Panama, Bulgaria, El Salvador, and Afghanistan, the CIA would...suddenly decide to interfere in Ukraine.

Can't be anything but anti-American virtue signaling.


"Buh buh buh whaddabout?!?!"

Typical tankie.
Doc Holliday
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ATL Bear
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Sam Lowry said:

ATL Bear said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

Realitybites said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feint

If it had been Putin's intention to take Kiev, it would have happened.

Quote:

Ukraine was neutral as a deliberate policy before being invaded (twice), the US/Europe were even extremely reluctant to supply Ukraine with useful military aid packages out of deference for Russia. That's over now, because it is abundantly clear that Russia's word isn't worth the hot air they spent to give it.


Nonsense. We sponsored a coup there in Maidan. NATO membership for Ukraine has been a constant Democrat/Neocon talking point.

https://rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html

Some people act like Vladimir Putin woke up one morning in 2022 and decided to invade Ukraine for no reason. Whatever you think about him, he isn't an irrational risk taker.
Oh boy…


Who can really know what Putin would or what not do (he is old, age 70, and some reports say he is already suffering from dementia)

But let's not pretend Victoria Nuland and the State Department (probably CIA as well) were not all over the 2014 Ukrainian coup/protests/revolution.





Putin and his cronies have been invading and plundering Ukraine since 2002. The focus on 2014 is America hating virtue signaling. Keep the excuses coming, and keep defending "Mr Rational".
Yes, who would have thought that after interfering in China, Italy, Greece, the Philippines, Korea, Albania, Germany, Iran, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Syria, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Haiti, Algeria, Ecuador, the Congo, Brazil, Peru, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, East Timor, Ghana, Uruguay, Chile, Bolivia, Iraq, Angola, Zaire, Jamaica, Grenada, Morocco, Libya, Nicaragua, Panama, Bulgaria, El Salvador, and Afghanistan, the CIA would...suddenly decide to interfere in Ukraine.

Can't be anything but anti-American virtue signaling.
The irony of this idiotic reply is a majority of that list was countering Russian interference including Ukraine. Keep waving those Russki pom poms!
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