2024

209,839 Views | 4694 Replies | Last: 33 min ago by Mothra
FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Jack Bauer said:

boognish_bear said:



I heard he beat Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler by shooting a 61.


Greatest Round EVER in the history of Golf...


Some people are saying…
We are truly lucky to be witnessing the greatest human ever...

boognish_bear
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KaiBear
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A big win for Trump.

One he desperately needed.

But he still is looking at long odds in the state of NY.
boognish_bear
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whiterock
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4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

2008 was 100% because of govt regulation, not lack of it..


Derivatives were regulated?
Regulation was the cause? Everything I read on it was deregulation which allowed the derivatives which ended up with interest only loans and ARMs.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/hey-barney-frank-the-government-did-cause-the-housing-crisis/249903/

I know its an alt right publication but press through and read
Atlantic is traditional, thoughtful classical liberalism of the center left.

The article is a very good one and explains PART of the problem.....the supply part. Government policy effectively required banks to make "sub-prime" loans, and facilitated it by opening the "window" at Frannie Mae & Freddie Mac (FMFM) to dispose of the riskier/lower-yielding loans. Banks know they can meet their obligations for fair lending by originating loans they would never otherwise make, because they always have a "window" to dump them (FMFM). They make money on the origination fees, and small change on the sale. But FMFM and others have capital limits, too. They have to bundle up bunches of loans to sell to investment firms. Thus the rise of "mortgage backed securities."

The demand part of the problem is here: Those mortgage-backed securities, which by virtue of having FMFM instruments in them with implicit full faith & credit of the USG, are considered comparable to Treasury bonds....and are then bought by investors (which include investment divisions of banks), And those mortgage backed securities, because of the small number of sub-prime mortgages in them, had a slightly higher return. And, thanks to the 1999 repeal of key portions of the Glass-Stegall Act, (Gramm-Leach-Bliley), THOSE SAME BANKS WHICH HAD ORIGINATED THOSE SUB-PRIME LOANS WERE BUYING THEM BACK AS SECURED INSTRUMENTS to hold in their reserves.

We don't want Bank of America lending division to hold onto A sub-prime mortgage, but we'll let Bank of America investment division hold gazillions of them because they are attached to a bunch of better paper.
Good idea!

and then, the predictable happened: many of the sub-prime mortgages failed. and when they failed, they caused the yields on the mortgage backed securities to sag. When those yields sagged, the values declined and they became unmarketable. And thanks to "mark to market" rules by the Fed (who audits the creditworthiness of banks), if bank cannot sell an instrument in their reserves, it has no value and must be written off. When banks/investment firms (the line between the two was erased, remember) write off substantial parts of their reserve capital, they become insolvent from a regulatory standpoint. Investment divisions of profitable banks then fail, and the whole house of cards collapses. The Fed, you see, doesn't care about home ownership rates. Just the creditworthiness of the lending institutions in their system.

Arguing over whether It was driven by too much regulation or too little is a false dichotomy - it was both. More to the point, IT WAS ALL POLICY DRIVEN.

".....On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions.
-Thomas Sowell
Jack Bauer
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boognish_bear said:



Nicklaus has 6 Green Jackets....Trump has 200!
Jack Bauer
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Mothra
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Well, it looks like Biden is making the predicted come back in the swing states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states-poll-shows/ar-BB1kxPN5

Probably didn't help Trump being in the news trying to obtain an appeal bond on the massive judgment against him.

He will be hurt by the criminal prosecutions, if any of them go forward prior to the election.
whiterock
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Mothra said:

Well, it looks like Biden is making the predicted come back in the swing states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states-poll-shows/ar-BB1kxPN5

Probably didn't help Trump being in the news trying to obtain an appeal bond on the massive judgment against him.

He will be hurt by the criminal prosecutions, if any of them go forward prior to the election.
maybe he'll be hurt by the prosecutions. Maybe not. Most polling shows yes, but the wording is usually problematic, very general, not specific to any of the particular cases. And now we're seeing a few polls start to suggest they will not have impact. It's always been a logical disconnect that prosecutions would torpedo Trump's campaign, when they have been a significant benefit to his support. Too early to tell. And what happens in Bidenworld matters, too.

Being able to post a $175m bond in cash is probably going to help him.

Read the fine print in the graphic at your link. You'll see a wide variance in the state by state margin of error, but the overall "battleground poll" with a very tight 1% MOE. What that indicates is that the poll was not constructed state by state, but as a region at large. Most of the movement is modest state by state, but most tellingly, where the poll was designed to be most accurate.....the movement is statistically insignificant.

So don't put too much weight in that one. Not saying it's wrong. Just not constructed to support the specific argument you're making.

All that said, I'm skeptical of the polls showing Trump up by several points in PA, above 50% in a few. Susquehanna is a very good Pennsylvania firm. It's their turf. They have Biden up by 5.

So the take home lesson is.....when you see a 10 point range of outcomes among good polling firms, you can be sure they are NOT all polling the same universe of voters. Some of them are flat right, and some flat wrong, on who will be the electorate in November. The trends are more instructive, as they usually move in tandem, no matter which poll is correct. And Trump has a long-term trend of gain. A very recent and very modest correction, is not likely statistically significant. have to wait for trends to develop.....
Whiskey Pete
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Mothra said:

Well, it looks like Biden is making the predicted come back in the swing states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states-poll-shows/ar-BB1kxPN5

Probably didn't help Trump being in the news trying to obtain an appeal bond on the massive judgment against him.

He will be hurt by the criminal prosecutions, if any of them go forward prior to the election.
Trump probably not going to win. Swamp not going to let it happen.

KaiBear
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Mothra said:

Well, it looks like Biden is making the predicted come back in the swing states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states-poll-shows/ar-BB1kxPN5

Probably didn't help Trump being in the news trying to obtain an appeal bond on the massive judgment against him.

He will be hurt by the criminal prosecutions, if any of them go forward prior to the election.
Many of the same folks committed to a Democrat nominee under any circumstances will be the first to be negatively impacted by 4 more years of Biden's policies.

That's what happens when an electorate gets dumbed down over successive generations.
4th and Inches
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Whiskey Pete said:

Mothra said:

Well, it looks like Biden is making the predicted come back in the swing states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states-poll-shows/ar-BB1kxPN5

Probably didn't help Trump being in the news trying to obtain an appeal bond on the massive judgment against him.

He will be hurt by the criminal prosecutions, if any of them go forward prior to the election.
Trump probably not going to win. Swamp not going to let it happen.


it can be done with one less state this time.. AZ and TX gained electorals
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
4th and Inches
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Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
KaiBear
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4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .
boognish_bear
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Trump cracking into the Bible market

Jack Bauer
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boognish_bear said:

Trump cracking into the Bible market



I think Vivek Ramaswamy has gone to church more than Donald Trump.
4th and Inches
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Jack Bauer said:


that could steal Dem votes to RFK
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
sombear
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4th and Inches said:

Jack Bauer said:


that could steal Dem votes to RFK
A stupid political move. He was gaining momentum with a certain segment of the right, but he names probably the most left wing VP candidate in history.

He already had a good chunk of the far left and green left.

Most Dems despise him due to his vax stance, so this will do nothing with that group.

I've never liked him, so I'm glad . . . .
boognish_bear
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KaiBear
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sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

Jack Bauer said:


that could steal Dem votes to RFK
A stupid political move. He was gaining momentum with a certain segment of the right, but he names probably the most left wing VP candidate in history.

He already had a good chunk of the far left and green left.

Most Dems despise him due to his vax stance, so this will do nothing with that group.

I've never liked him, so I'm glad . . . .
Agreed

Horrible political move as he basically sold off the VP spot to one of his biggest campaign
contributors.

Whatever threat he might have presented to Trump is effectively over.
KaiBear
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
You're quibbling over $2b and $5b to create doubt over whether or not he's a billionaire at all, as though if he's only worth $990m then he's nuthin'.

Dude had stacked up $500m in cash to use in his campaign. SONY saw it, went lawfare after it, got a judgment against him for almost the exact same amount.

Do you have half your net worth in cash?
whiterock
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whiterock said:

Mothra said:

Well, it looks like Biden is making the predicted come back in the swing states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states-poll-shows/ar-BB1kxPN5

Probably didn't help Trump being in the news trying to obtain an appeal bond on the massive judgment against him.

He will be hurt by the criminal prosecutions, if any of them go forward prior to the election.
maybe he'll be hurt by the prosecutions. Maybe not. Most polling shows yes, but the wording is usually problematic, very general, not specific to any of the particular cases. And now we're seeing a few polls start to suggest they will not have impact. It's always been a logical disconnect that prosecutions would torpedo Trump's campaign, when they have been a significant benefit to his support. Too early to tell. And what happens in Bidenworld matters, too.

Being able to post a $175m bond in cash is probably going to help him.

Read the fine print in the graphic at your link. You'll see a wide variance in the state by state margin of error, but the overall "battleground poll" with a very tight 1% MOE. What that indicates is that the poll was not constructed state by state, but as a region at large. Most of the movement is modest state by state, but most tellingly, where the poll was designed to be most accurate.....the movement is statistically insignificant.

So don't put too much weight in that one. Not saying it's wrong. Just not constructed to support the specific argument you're making.

All that said, I'm skeptical of the polls showing Trump up by several points in PA, above 50% in a few. Susquehanna is a very good Pennsylvania firm. It's their turf. They have Biden up by 5.

So the take home lesson is.....when you see a 10 point range of outcomes among good polling firms, you can be sure they are NOT all polling the same universe of voters. Some of them are flat right, and some flat wrong, on who will be the electorate in November. The trends are more instructive, as they usually move in tandem, no matter which poll is correct. And Trump has a long-term trend of gain. A very recent and very modest correction, is not likely statistically significant. have to wait for trends to develop.....
Here's Rasmussen, pointing out a factor I overlooked.

KaiBear
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...


Incredibly weak response and you know it

Trump is a narcissist and a jerk….but obviously one of incredibly high energy and intelligence.

Your only other option is an old dementia case who wants to fund wars ( and possibly get involved in one ) and bring millions of illegals into our country.

So stop the charade and declare your priorities.
Whiskey Pete
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FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
Don't care if Trump is worth less than a billion or if he's worth $2B or $5B. What I do care about is Biden not securing the border that's allowed millions of illegals (and massive amounts of Fentanyl) to come through. The current president actively fighting states that are trying to secure their own border in the absence of any effort by the big guy.

Countries are unloading their prisons and sending their dregs of humanity our way.

This isn't going to end well for America if this is allowed to continue
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
You're quibbling over $2b and $5b to create doubt over whether or not he's a billionaire at all, as though if he's only worth $990m then he's nuthin'.

Dude had stacked up $500m in cash to use in his campaign. SONY saw it, went lawfare after it, got a judgment against him for almost the exact same amount.

Do you have half your net worth in cash?
Yet, his money never comes into play, when it is needed he pleads poor. Sorry, do not have much respect for the guy. Everything on the front end always seems to look great, the end game not so much.

You should be impressed with this deal. He will make a killing.
Whiskey Pete
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
You're quibbling over $2b and $5b to create doubt over whether or not he's a billionaire at all, as though if he's only worth $990m then he's nuthin'.

Dude had stacked up $500m in cash to use in his campaign. SONY saw it, went lawfare after it, got a judgment against him for almost the exact same amount.

Do you have half your net worth in cash?
Yet, his money never comes into play, when it is needed he pleads poor. Sorry, do not have much respect for the guy. Everything on the front end always seems to look great, the end game not so much.

You should be impressed with this deal. He will make a killing.

He won't be making near as much from the stock as the cartels are making off of human smuggling. In 2021, $13 billion dollars industry. I'm sure their sales are at a record pace for 2023 and 2024.
FLBear5630
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Whiskey Pete said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
You're quibbling over $2b and $5b to create doubt over whether or not he's a billionaire at all, as though if he's only worth $990m then he's nuthin'.

Dude had stacked up $500m in cash to use in his campaign. SONY saw it, went lawfare after it, got a judgment against him for almost the exact same amount.

Do you have half your net worth in cash?
Yet, his money never comes into play, when it is needed he pleads poor. Sorry, do not have much respect for the guy. Everything on the front end always seems to look great, the end game not so much.

You should be impressed with this deal. He will make a killing.

He won't be making near as much from the stock as the cartels are making off of human smuggling. In 2021, $13 billion dollars industry. I'm sure their sales are at a record pace for 2023 and 2024.
Which is relevant to Trump's sale of social media, how?
Whiskey Pete
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FLBear5630 said:

Whiskey Pete said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
You're quibbling over $2b and $5b to create doubt over whether or not he's a billionaire at all, as though if he's only worth $990m then he's nuthin'.

Dude had stacked up $500m in cash to use in his campaign. SONY saw it, went lawfare after it, got a judgment against him for almost the exact same amount.

Do you have half your net worth in cash?
Yet, his money never comes into play, when it is needed he pleads poor. Sorry, do not have much respect for the guy. Everything on the front end always seems to look great, the end game not so much.

You should be impressed with this deal. He will make a killing.

He won't be making near as much from the stock as the cartels are making off of human smuggling. In 2021, $13 billion dollars industry. I'm sure their sales are at a record pace for 2023 and 2024.
Which is relevant to Trump's sale of social media, how?
First, it seems some people are butt hurt over Trump becoming worth billions more since yesterday. Second, I'm implying that people don't need to get their panties in wad over Trump's wealth (or lack thereof).

Third, didn't you say it's an election year, that it's okay to be talking about the candidates and their policies and such? So, Biden's open border actions seem like a good subject to talk about since it directly affects the USA and every American more than how Trump is worth, no?
FLBear5630
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Whiskey Pete said:

FLBear5630 said:

Whiskey Pete said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
You're quibbling over $2b and $5b to create doubt over whether or not he's a billionaire at all, as though if he's only worth $990m then he's nuthin'.

Dude had stacked up $500m in cash to use in his campaign. SONY saw it, went lawfare after it, got a judgment against him for almost the exact same amount.

Do you have half your net worth in cash?
Yet, his money never comes into play, when it is needed he pleads poor. Sorry, do not have much respect for the guy. Everything on the front end always seems to look great, the end game not so much.

You should be impressed with this deal. He will make a killing.

He won't be making near as much from the stock as the cartels are making off of human smuggling. In 2021, $13 billion dollars industry. I'm sure their sales are at a record pace for 2023 and 2024.
Which is relevant to Trump's sale of social media, how?
First, it seems some people are butt hurt over Trump becoming worth billions more since yesterday. Second, I'm implying that people don't need to get their panties in wad over Trump's wealth (or lack thereof).

Third, didn't you say it's an election year, that it's okay to be talking about the candidates and their policies and such? So, Biden's open border actions seem like a good subject to talk about since it directly affects the USA and every American more than how Trump is worth, no?


Ok, I agree the Border is the #1 issue. Whoever wins has to get the border under control

J.R.
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Whiskey Pete said:

Mothra said:

Well, it looks like Biden is making the predicted come back in the swing states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states-poll-shows/ar-BB1kxPN5

Probably didn't help Trump being in the news trying to obtain an appeal bond on the massive judgment against him.

He will be hurt by the criminal prosecutions, if any of them go forward prior to the election.
Trump probably not going to win. Swamp not going to let it happen.


you are the Swamp LP
J.R.
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...
You're quibbling over $2b and $5b to create doubt over whether or not he's a billionaire at all, as though if he's only worth $990m then he's nuthin'.

Dude had stacked up $500m in cash to use in his campaign. SONY saw it, went lawfare after it, got a judgment against him for almost the exact same amount.

Do you have half your net worth in cash?
that is total BS. he obviously doesn't have $5M in cash or he wouldn't be pimping bibles (just ****ing disgusting). yes, I do in terms of cash. Why wouldn't you? do you?
J.R.
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KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

4th and Inches said:



Hey JR.. think he might be a billionaire now?
Nothing wrong with arrogance as long as you can back it up.

Trump is a *****, but he obviously can back it up.

Maybe it's time to have a smart ***** as president rather than a dementia riddled ***** .

Let's see if it holds when he is actually able to sell it.
So how many billions does Trump have to sell it for to garner your approval ?
How about 1 thing involving Trump being close to what the truth actually is? Everything about the guy is an estimate or leveraged or conditioned...


Incredibly weak response and you know it

Trump is a narcissist and a jerk….but obviously one of incredibly high energy and intelligence.

Your only other option is an old dementia case who wants to fund wars ( and possibly get involved in one ) and bring millions of illegals into our country.

So stop the charade and declare your priorities.
seriously? intelligent? nah. he is just dumb and clueless.
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