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J.R.
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In reply to whiterock • 5:25p, 2/27/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
[There is plenty of megalomania to go around in our political class. But it may be a more helpful exercise to regard the spate of announcements primarily as the preamble to the race for the vice presidency. What virtues, if any, do the contenders bring to the bottom of the ticket?

Trump needs a wartime consigliere, an America First Dick Cheney. Mike Pence's selection in 2016 was a canny effort to unify the traditional GOP coalition members behind Trump, the Odoacer from Queens; in 2023, the GOP, for better or worse, is Trump. The 2024 vice presidential candidate should be selected for two qualities: First, an adherence to and an ability to articulate the America First policy line, much as Cheney was able to be the face of Bush's foreign policy; second, competence and brutality in staffing and administration.

Trump's first term was marred by a paucity of staff and feckless management, as a collection of officials both career and political actively agitated against his policies, especially his foreign policy. Because of the flexibility of the vice president's brief, a 2024 vice president can be devoted to the war within the admin. (Perhaps this is not what Walter Mondale had in mind when he invented the modern vice presidency, but our children sometimes surprise us.)

Who are the options so far? ]



https://www.theamericanconservative.com/its-happening-again/
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:
DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser
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LIB,MR BEARS
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 8:00p, 2/27/23
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
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whiterock
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In reply to J.R. • 2:52a, 2/28/23
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good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:

DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser

Actually, the losers are the MF'ers who refuse to vote for him so Dems will win. But at least you'll have 4 years worth of *****ing material.

I'm not advocating anything. Just illustrating the landscape. Most polling is showing Trump had a sag after the mid-terms, right to the ragged of vulnerability, but has rebounded back to a nearly unassailable position. That could change, but right now it's not clear what would cause it.

My overriding concern is less who the nominee will be than in not seeing the coming battle between Trump and DeSantis devolve into a garden variety base versus establishment fight. Those can be hard to repair and it does take BOTH to win elections. It's clear donors want to move on.....
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In reply to J.R. • 6:44a, 2/28/23
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
[There is plenty of megalomania to go around in our political class. But it may be a more helpful exercise to regard the spate of announcements primarily as the preamble to the race for the vice presidency. What virtues, if any, do the contenders bring to the bottom of the ticket?

Trump needs a wartime consigliere, an America First Dick Cheney. Mike Pence's selection in 2016 was a canny effort to unify the traditional GOP coalition members behind Trump, the Odoacer from Queens; in 2023, the GOP, for better or worse, is Trump. The 2024 vice presidential candidate should be selected for two qualities: First, an adherence to and an ability to articulate the America First policy line, much as Cheney was able to be the face of Bush's foreign policy; second, competence and brutality in staffing and administration.

Trump's first term was marred by a paucity of staff and feckless management, as a collection of officials both career and political actively agitated against his policies, especially his foreign policy. Because of the flexibility of the vice president's brief, a 2024 vice president can be devoted to the war within the admin. (Perhaps this is not what Walter Mondale had in mind when he invented the modern vice presidency, but our children sometimes surprise us.)

Who are the options so far? ]



https://www.theamericanconservative.com/its-happening-again/
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:
DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser
GOP like you are the reason he lost.. you wanted a kinder gentler friendlier president.. who gives billions to foriegners while doing nothing in Ohio. FJB and everyone who voted for him!
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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Mothra
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In reply to LIB,MR BEARS • 7:11a, 2/28/23
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
Bingo. It's why Trump will never win another general election, IMO.
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In reply to whiterock • 7:12a, 2/28/23
whiterock said:
Quote:

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good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:

DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser

Actually, the losers are the MF'ers who refuse to vote for him so Dems will win. But at least you'll have 4 years worth of *****ing material.

I'm not advocating anything. Just illustrating the landscape. Most polling is showing Trump had a sag after the mid-terms, right to the ragged of vulnerability, but has rebounded back to a nearly unassailable position. That could change, but right now it's not clear what would cause it.

My overriding concern is less who the nominee will be than in not seeing the coming battle between Trump and DeSantis devolve into a garden variety base versus establishment fight. Those can be hard to repair and it does take BOTH to win elections. It's clear donors want to move on.....
Donors want to move on. But the bumpkins want more Trump.
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muddybrazos
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In reply to LIB,MR BEARS • 7:35a, 2/28/23
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
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In reply to muddybrazos • 7:48a, 2/28/23
muddybrazos said:
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
Or if you're trying to get most of the general public to vote for you.
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In reply to Mothra • 7:49a, 2/28/23
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Quote:

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good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:

DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser

Actually, the losers are the MF'ers who refuse to vote for him so Dems will win. But at least you'll have 4 years worth of *****ing material.

I'm not advocating anything. Just illustrating the landscape. Most polling is showing Trump had a sag after the mid-terms, right to the ragged of vulnerability, but has rebounded back to a nearly unassailable position. That could change, but right now it's not clear what would cause it.

My overriding concern is less who the nominee will be than in not seeing the coming battle between Trump and DeSantis devolve into a garden variety base versus establishment fight. Those can be hard to repair and it does take BOTH to win elections. It's clear donors want to move on.....
Donors want to move on. But the bumpkins want more Trump.
And the bumpkins outnumber their betters by about 95-5.....

The great irony of GOP party politics is that the donors tend to think they don't need the bumpkins, and the bumpkins tend to think they don't need the money. Reality is, it takes BOTH to win elections. The GOP has a further unhelpful dynamic - the donors tend to be quite uninterested in ideological warfare that is so important to firing up the bumpkins...just not interested in it, see it as totally off-task activity. Romney literally hired several prominent grassroots activists for national positions with a job description to go around and beg the Tea Parties to be quiet. (look how that turned out for us.) Democrats do not have that problem. The donors have essentially the same progressive worldview as the base of the party. They always find a productive task for their base rather than trying to banish them to the hinterlands.

The GOP loathes its base. (Look at JR, for example).
And then gets all huffy when they fall in love with someone like Trump.
It's a miracle we ever win.
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In reply to Mothra • 8:22a, 2/28/23
Mothra said:
muddybrazos said:
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
Or if you're trying to get most of the general public to vote for you.
Mothra, what precisely are you doing to help produce a Republican who is almost perfect, and able to win in 2024?

Whiterock, same question.

I see the same old noise thrown back and forth, but no effort whatsoever to move forward.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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In reply to whiterock • 9:36a, 2/28/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Quote:

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
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Quote:
Quote:
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:

DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser

Actually, the losers are the MF'ers who refuse to vote for him so Dems will win. But at least you'll have 4 years worth of *****ing material.

I'm not advocating anything. Just illustrating the landscape. Most polling is showing Trump had a sag after the mid-terms, right to the ragged of vulnerability, but has rebounded back to a nearly unassailable position. That could change, but right now it's not clear what would cause it.

My overriding concern is less who the nominee will be than in not seeing the coming battle between Trump and DeSantis devolve into a garden variety base versus establishment fight. Those can be hard to repair and it does take BOTH to win elections. It's clear donors want to move on.....
Donors want to move on. But the bumpkins want more Trump.
And the bumpkins outnumber their betters by about 95-5.....

The great irony of GOP party politics is that the donors tend to think they don't need the bumpkins, and the bumpkins tend to think they don't need the money. Reality is, it takes BOTH to win elections. The GOP has a further unhelpful dynamic - the donors tend to be quite uninterested in ideological warfare that is so important to firing up the bumpkins...just not interested in it, see it as totally off-task activity. Romney literally hired several prominent grassroots activists for national positions with a job description to go around and beg the Tea Parties to be quiet. (look how that turned out for us.) Democrats do not have that problem. The donors have essentially the same progressive worldview as the base of the party. They always find a productive task for their base rather than trying to banish them to the hinterlands.

The GOP loathes its base. (Look at JR, for example).
And then gets all huffy when they fall in love with someone like Trump.
It's a miracle we ever win.

Always has...

Country Club Republicans have never liked the unwashed masses out in the suburbs, small towns, and trailer parks...the people they need to actual win elections...but who they don't like to be around or actual talk to.

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In reply to whiterock • 10:04a, 2/28/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Quote:

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:

DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser

Actually, the losers are the MF'ers who refuse to vote for him so Dems will win. But at least you'll have 4 years worth of *****ing material.

I'm not advocating anything. Just illustrating the landscape. Most polling is showing Trump had a sag after the mid-terms, right to the ragged of vulnerability, but has rebounded back to a nearly unassailable position. That could change, but right now it's not clear what would cause it.

My overriding concern is less who the nominee will be than in not seeing the coming battle between Trump and DeSantis devolve into a garden variety base versus establishment fight. Those can be hard to repair and it does take BOTH to win elections. It's clear donors want to move on.....
Donors want to move on. But the bumpkins want more Trump.
And the bumpkins outnumber their betters by about 95-5.....

The great irony of GOP party politics is that the donors tend to think they don't need the bumpkins, and the bumpkins tend to think they don't need the money. Reality is, it takes BOTH to win elections. The GOP has a further unhelpful dynamic - the donors tend to be quite uninterested in ideological warfare that is so important to firing up the bumpkins...just not interested in it, see it as totally off-task activity. Romney literally hired several prominent grassroots activists for national positions with a job description to go around and beg the Tea Parties to be quiet. (look how that turned out for us.) Democrats do not have that problem. The donors have essentially the same progressive worldview as the base of the party. They always find a productive task for their base rather than trying to banish them to the hinterlands.

The GOP loathes its base. (Look at JR, for example).
And then gets all huffy when they fall in love with someone like Trump.
It's a miracle we ever win.
I don't disagree with you. As long as he has a large swath of bumpkins, he will continue to get nominated, while at the same time continue to get trounced in the general election given his unpopularity outside of the much larger non-bumpkin community.
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 10:06a, 2/28/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
muddybrazos said:
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
Or if you're trying to get most of the general public to vote for you.
Mothra, what precisely are you doing to help produce a Republican who is almost perfect, and able to win in 2024?

Whiterock, same question.

I see the same old noise thrown back and forth, but no effort whatsoever to move forward.
Promoting DeSantis among friends, family and this board, both vocally and with my $$$.

Does that answer your question?
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 10:21a, 2/28/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
muddybrazos said:
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
Or if you're trying to get most of the general public to vote for you.
Mothra, what precisely are you doing to help produce a Republican who is almost perfect, and able to win in 2024?

Whiterock, same question.

I see the same old noise thrown back and forth, but no effort whatsoever to move forward.
Promoting DeSantis among friends, family and this board, both vocally and with my $$$.

Does that answer your question?
Can you do that without frothing at the mouth when someone else likes Trump?

Because the only way to make Trump irrelevant in 2024, is to give him his due as a good President and viable candidate. I believe Trump would be miles better than any Democrat were he to be the GOP nomination; I just prefer someone else win the nomination.

Trashing Trump and his supporters is a really bad idea,
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Mothra • 10:33a, 2/28/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
muddybrazos said:
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
Or if you're trying to get most of the general public to vote for you.
Mothra, what precisely are you doing to help produce a Republican who is almost perfect, and able to win in 2024?

Whiterock, same question.

I see the same old noise thrown back and forth, but no effort whatsoever to move forward.
Promoting DeSantis among friends, family and this board, both vocally and with my $$$.

?


I will join you
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 11:43a, 2/28/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
muddybrazos said:
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
Or if you're trying to get most of the general public to vote for you.
Mothra, what precisely are you doing to help produce a Republican who is almost perfect, and able to win in 2024?

Whiterock, same question.

I see the same old noise thrown back and forth, but no effort whatsoever to move forward.
Promoting DeSantis among friends, family and this board, both vocally and with my $$$.

Does that answer your question?
Can you do that without frothing at the mouth when someone else likes Trump?

Because the only way to make Trump irrelevant in 2024, is to give him his due as a good President and viable candidate. I believe Trump would be miles better than any Democrat were he to be the GOP nomination; I just prefer someone else win the nomination.

Trashing Trump and his supporters is a really bad idea,
Respectfully, it appears any critique of Trump - at least in your book - is "frothing at the mouth." I have always found your position on that subject absurd and ridiculous.

I don't think saying things that aren't true are the way to get rid of Trump. He did some good things which I was very happy about, but also lots of bad things that were anti-conservative. In other words, his presidency was a very mixed bag - miles better than Joe Biden, mind you - but very mixed.

Pretending that Trump is a good candidate or can win a general election is a VERY bad idea, unless the goal is to secure 4 more years of Democrat rule. Now is the time to put these candidates through the ringer so we pick a good one, not to cover up and pretend that things are true when they're not. Sorry.

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In reply to 4th and Inches • 11:55a, 2/28/23
4th and Inches said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
[There is plenty of megalomania to go around in our political class. But it may be a more helpful exercise to regard the spate of announcements primarily as the preamble to the race for the vice presidency. What virtues, if any, do the contenders bring to the bottom of the ticket?

Trump needs a wartime consigliere, an America First Dick Cheney. Mike Pence's selection in 2016 was a canny effort to unify the traditional GOP coalition members behind Trump, the Odoacer from Queens; in 2023, the GOP, for better or worse, is Trump. The 2024 vice presidential candidate should be selected for two qualities: First, an adherence to and an ability to articulate the America First policy line, much as Cheney was able to be the face of Bush's foreign policy; second, competence and brutality in staffing and administration.

Trump's first term was marred by a paucity of staff and feckless management, as a collection of officials both career and political actively agitated against his policies, especially his foreign policy. Because of the flexibility of the vice president's brief, a 2024 vice president can be devoted to the war within the admin. (Perhaps this is not what Walter Mondale had in mind when he invented the modern vice presidency, but our children sometimes surprise us.)

Who are the options so far? ]



https://www.theamericanconservative.com/its-happening-again/
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:
DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser
GOP like you are the reason he lost.. you wanted a kinder gentler friendlier president.. who gives billions to foriegners while doing nothing in Ohio. FJB and everyone who voted for him!
I'm not GOP. I'm independent. He is a POS, fraud, Bronx Con Man and a grifter. No, way will I stoop to vote for the POS. It is all on the GOP to field better candidates. Don't count on it, though.
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J.R.
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In reply to whiterock • 11:57a, 2/28/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Quote:

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
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Quote:
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:

DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser

Actually, the losers are the MF'ers who refuse to vote for him so Dems will win. But at least you'll have 4 years worth of *****ing material.

I'm not advocating anything. Just illustrating the landscape. Most polling is showing Trump had a sag after the mid-terms, right to the ragged of vulnerability, but has rebounded back to a nearly unassailable position. That could change, but right now it's not clear what would cause it.

My overriding concern is less who the nominee will be than in not seeing the coming battle between Trump and DeSantis devolve into a garden variety base versus establishment fight. Those can be hard to repair and it does take BOTH to win elections. It's clear donors want to move on.....
Donors want to move on. But the bumpkins want more Trump.
And the bumpkins outnumber their betters by about 95-5.....

The great irony of GOP party politics is that the donors tend to think they don't need the bumpkins, and the bumpkins tend to think they don't need the money. Reality is, it takes BOTH to win elections. The GOP has a further unhelpful dynamic - the donors tend to be quite uninterested in ideological warfare that is so important to firing up the bumpkins...just not interested in it, see it as totally off-task activity. Romney literally hired several prominent grassroots activists for national positions with a job description to go around and beg the Tea Parties to be quiet. (look how that turned out for us.) Democrats do not have that problem. The donors have essentially the same progressive worldview as the base of the party. They always find a productive task for their base rather than trying to banish them to the hinterlands.

The GOP loathes its base. (Look at JR, for example).
And then gets all huffy when they fall in love with someone like Trump.
It's a miracle we ever win.
I don't like losers which Trump is. GOP hasn't been doing much winning lately...Not sure if you have noticed. You tie that right around Trumpy Bear's neck. He is responsible .
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In reply to Mothra • 12:35p, 2/28/23
" I have always found your position on that subject absurd and ridiculous."

I have, for over half a year now, been clear that I do not want Trump to win the GOP nomination.

I have also been clear that demanding he go to jail, be legally prohibited from running, or otherwise be impaired from the respect due a former President of the United States with tens of millions of active supporters and donors, would be extremely petty and short-sighted, and play into Democrats' plans and severely hurt the GOP chances of winning back the White House.

Please explain what is 'absurd and ridiculous' about either position?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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4th and Inches
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In reply to J.R. • 1:00p, 2/28/23
J.R. said:
4th and Inches said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
[There is plenty of megalomania to go around in our political class. But it may be a more helpful exercise to regard the spate of announcements primarily as the preamble to the race for the vice presidency. What virtues, if any, do the contenders bring to the bottom of the ticket?

Trump needs a wartime consigliere, an America First Dick Cheney. Mike Pence's selection in 2016 was a canny effort to unify the traditional GOP coalition members behind Trump, the Odoacer from Queens; in 2023, the GOP, for better or worse, is Trump. The 2024 vice presidential candidate should be selected for two qualities: First, an adherence to and an ability to articulate the America First policy line, much as Cheney was able to be the face of Bush's foreign policy; second, competence and brutality in staffing and administration.

Trump's first term was marred by a paucity of staff and feckless management, as a collection of officials both career and political actively agitated against his policies, especially his foreign policy. Because of the flexibility of the vice president's brief, a 2024 vice president can be devoted to the war within the admin. (Perhaps this is not what Walter Mondale had in mind when he invented the modern vice presidency, but our children sometimes surprise us.)

Who are the options so far? ]



https://www.theamericanconservative.com/its-happening-again/
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:
DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser
GOP like you are the reason he lost.. you wanted a kinder gentler friendlier president.. who gives billions to foriegners while doing nothing in Ohio. FJB and everyone who voted for him!
I'm not GOP. I'm independent. He is a POS, fraud, Bronx Con Man and a grifter. No, way will I stoop to vote for the POS. It is all on the GOP to field better candidates. Don't count on it, though.
while I can appreciate a man with morals, by deciding to let another equally or more immoral person win because you cant vote for somebody with lessor character than you is..

Enjoy the rewards of your choices
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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Mothra
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 1:03p, 2/28/23
Oldbear83 said:
" I have always found your position on that subject absurd and ridiculous."

I have, for over half a year now, been clear that I do not want Trump to win the GOP nomination.

I have also been clear that demanding he go to jail, be legally prohibited from running, or otherwise be impaired from the respect due a former President of the United States with tens of millions of active supporters and donors, would be extremely petty and short-sighted, and play into Democrats' plans and severely hurt the GOP chances of winning back the White House.

Please explain what is 'absurd and ridiculous' about either position?
Well, for one, our positions are the same. I have likewise never argued that Trump should go to jail, be legally prohibited from running, or otherwise be impaired from running, but have instead raised legitimate critiques of his ability to win another national election. Like you, I have said he's miles better than Biden, and that I would vote for him again over the Democrat alternative without question, but that the likelihood of someone with his unpopularity and personality winning another national election are low, which is why we should move on. Yet, you claim that's "frothing at the mouth."

I find that position absurd.
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muddybrazos
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In reply to Mothra • 1:09p, 2/28/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
" I have always found your position on that subject absurd and ridiculous."

I have, for over half a year now, been clear that I do not want Trump to win the GOP nomination.

I have also been clear that demanding he go to jail, be legally prohibited from running, or otherwise be impaired from the respect due a former President of the United States with tens of millions of active supporters and donors, would be extremely petty and short-sighted, and play into Democrats' plans and severely hurt the GOP chances of winning back the White House.

Please explain what is 'absurd and ridiculous' about either position?
Well, for one, our positions are the same. I have likewise never argued that Trump should go to jail, be legally prohibited from running, or otherwise be impaired from running, but have instead raised legitimate critiques of his ability to win another national election. Like you, I have said he's miles better than Biden, and that I would vote for him again over the Democrat alternative without question, but that the likelihood of someone with his unpopularity and personality winning another national election are low, which is why we should move on. Yet, you claim that's "frothing at the mouth."

I find that position absurd.
So would you support the GOP doing what the DNC did with Bernie/Hillary and just annointing DeSantis as the candidate even if the majority of voters wanted Trump?
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In reply to muddybrazos • 1:12p, 2/28/23
muddybrazos said:
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
" I have always found your position on that subject absurd and ridiculous."

I have, for over half a year now, been clear that I do not want Trump to win the GOP nomination.

I have also been clear that demanding he go to jail, be legally prohibited from running, or otherwise be impaired from the respect due a former President of the United States with tens of millions of active supporters and donors, would be extremely petty and short-sighted, and play into Democrats' plans and severely hurt the GOP chances of winning back the White House.

Please explain what is 'absurd and ridiculous' about either position?
Well, for one, our positions are the same. I have likewise never argued that Trump should go to jail, be legally prohibited from running, or otherwise be impaired from running, but have instead raised legitimate critiques of his ability to win another national election. Like you, I have said he's miles better than Biden, and that I would vote for him again over the Democrat alternative without question, but that the likelihood of someone with his unpopularity and personality winning another national election are low, which is why we should move on. Yet, you claim that's "frothing at the mouth."

I find that position absurd.
So would you support the GOP doing what the DNC did with Bernie/Hillary and just annointing DeSantis as the candidate even if the majority of voters wanted Trump?
Of course not. My hope is the Republicans/conservatives wake up before it's too late, and nominate someone other than Trump. My hope is it's DeSantis.
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In reply to Mothra • 1:31p, 2/28/23
I think your choice of words has been rather less than you submit, but frankly you are still missing the main issue.,

Polling does not show that Trump can't win. There are a number of polls showing strong, ongoing support for Trump, both among Republicans and voters in general.

Granted, some of that is name recognition and BIden is not exactly making anyone wish he got another term, but to get Trump to, as you put it, 'go away', you have to give him a reason to think that is his best course.

He's not going away without a good reason.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 2:11p, 2/28/23
Oldbear83 said:
I think your choice of words has been rather less than you submit, but frankly you are still missing the main issue.,

Polling does not show that Trump can't win. There are a number of polls showing strong, ongoing support for Trump, both among Republicans and voters in general.

Granted, some of that is name recognition and BIden is not exactly making anyone wish he got another term, but to get Trump to, as you put it, 'go away', you have to give him a reason to think that is his best course.

He's not going away without a good reason.
If you disagree with the characterization of my critiques, by all means feel free to either post or point out the critiques that you believe prove otherwise, and I will be happy to admit my error.

We disagree regarding the polls, and their importance, especially at this stage. I think 2020 and 2022 speak for themselves. And a losing incumbent has never won a re-election. I don't see 200 plus years of history changing at this stage. Could I be wrong? Of course. I've already stated as much. Biden could certainly decline in popularity, which is I think Trump's only hope. But so can Trump. And as we have seen in 2020 and 2022, Trump seems to bring out people in droves to vote against him. There's no reason to think 2024 to be any different than 2020.

So, yes, a 76 year old Trump on his revenge tour could win the election if everything goes right. But I don't think it's likely. The way to make him go away is to start speaking against him and in support of his alternatives. Nominating geriatric re-treads who can't control their worst impulses is a bad idea. A really bad idea. Let's not support the **** show.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 3:03p, 2/28/23
"And a losing incumbent has never won a re-election. "

Grover Cleveland?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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In reply to Mothra • 3:05p, 2/28/23
"The way to make him go away is to start speaking against him"

No, that is just a good way to start a fight with people whose votes you need.

I agree with supporting alternatives, but attacking Trump is a feel-good-for-the-moment gesture that will end very badly.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 4:42p, 2/28/23
Oldbear83 said:
Mothra said:
muddybrazos said:
LIB,MR BEARS said:
Redbrickbear said:

I'm not a big Paul Ryan fan but this is a great illustration of a losing game plan-nominating someone that turns off a percentage of your voting bock, to the point they will sit out while motivating the opposition to record voter turnouts.
I guess if you are trying to get the Paul Ryan, JR, Lincoln project and Liz Chaney voting bloc then Trump is not the best nominee.
Or if you're trying to get most of the general public to vote for you.
Mothra, what precisely are you doing to help produce a Republican who is almost perfect, and able to win in 2024?

Whiterock, same question.

I see the same old noise thrown back and forth, but no effort whatsoever to move forward.

I'm going to do nothing but assess until we have a field of candidates.
In the primary, I'm going to get behind the best one who can get elected.
In the general, I'm going do all I can to help the nominee, no matter whom it might be, get elected.

And I'll sleep like a baby along the way, knowing that's the highest road one can take in a democratic process.
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 4:46p, 2/28/23
4th and Inches said:
J.R. said:
4th and Inches said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Redbrickbear said:
[There is plenty of megalomania to go around in our political class. But it may be a more helpful exercise to regard the spate of announcements primarily as the preamble to the race for the vice presidency. What virtues, if any, do the contenders bring to the bottom of the ticket?

Trump needs a wartime consigliere, an America First Dick Cheney. Mike Pence's selection in 2016 was a canny effort to unify the traditional GOP coalition members behind Trump, the Odoacer from Queens; in 2023, the GOP, for better or worse, is Trump. The 2024 vice presidential candidate should be selected for two qualities: First, an adherence to and an ability to articulate the America First policy line, much as Cheney was able to be the face of Bush's foreign policy; second, competence and brutality in staffing and administration.

Trump's first term was marred by a paucity of staff and feckless management, as a collection of officials both career and political actively agitated against his policies, especially his foreign policy. Because of the flexibility of the vice president's brief, a 2024 vice president can be devoted to the war within the admin. (Perhaps this is not what Walter Mondale had in mind when he invented the modern vice presidency, but our children sometimes surprise us.)

Who are the options so far? ]



https://www.theamericanconservative.com/its-happening-again/
good article. we have a deep bench. Any of them would be an asset in governance. Lots of gravitas. The only real question is which would be the biggest asset on the ticket. In that regard, I'd rank them in descending order:
DeSantis
Scott
Haley
Pompeo

Pompeo is the closest equivalent to Cheney in the gravitas department. but not having won statewide office is a problem. He's too far removed from his roots in a too small red state to potentially help add any electoral votes. Same for the work for which he is acclaimed. Foreign policy chops matter in governance but rarely win much in the general.

Whatever Haley may lack in the vision thing, she is tough and plays the game well. One could question how much of an asset she'd be, but she could hardly be considered a liability to any ticket.

Scott is so grounded, I wonder if he could tolerate four years of close proximity to the golden haired bluster machine.

DeSantis is the obvious choice - highly successful large state governor palatable to both base and establishment. He will give Trump a serious test for the nomination. Might even win it.

VP candidates for the Trump ticket?

LMAO!

You guys are a hoot...


The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.


For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.

Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.

Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.

I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.

Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.

Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.

And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.

They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.


Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.

In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.

Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.

1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable

I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.

None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Sooooo....you really think Trumps is the nominee? You far right folks need to understand that that Trumps was solely responsible for losing the Presidency, House, and Senate. Ironically, he's a LOSER! As the great Alanis Morrisett would say......"Isn't Ironic". Loser
GOP like you are the reason he lost.. you wanted a kinder gentler friendlier president.. who gives billions to foriegners while doing nothing in Ohio. FJB and everyone who voted for him!
I'm not GOP. I'm independent. He is a POS, fraud, Bronx Con Man and a grifter. No, way will I stoop to vote for the POS. It is all on the GOP to field better candidates. Don't count on it, though.
while I can appreciate a man with morals, by deciding to let another equally or more immoral person win because you cant vote for somebody with lessor character than you is..

Enjoy the rewards of your choices

He could play with the GOP and make it better. Instead, he plays the zoo animal hurling feces to amuse his own self every time he's the least bit irritated.

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whiterock
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4:47p, 2/28/23
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 5:21p, 2/28/23
Oldbear83 said:
"And a losing incumbent has never won a re-election. "

Grover Cleveland?
Good point. Happened once in history. Interesting to note is that Cleveland won the popular vote the year he lost. So not entirely unprecedented.
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In reply to Mothra • 12:39p, 3/3/23
Mothra said:
Oldbear83 said:
"And a losing incumbent has never won a re-election. "

Grover Cleveland?
Good point. Happened once in history. Interesting to note is that Cleveland won the popular vote the year he lost. So not entirely unprecedented.

Trump is also broke a barrier on businessmen getting elected POTUS.
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