Cobretti said:

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JOE MANCHIN:

I'm thinking "very seriously" about leaving the Democrat party and becoming an independent. pic.twitter.com/iWGGyntubo

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) August 11, 2023

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Would love it if Manchin and another qualified Republican would run on the No Labels third party ticket. There would be teeth gnashing and foot stomping on both sides! It would be quite entertaining.

I am still here:

1. Ron DeSantis
2. Tim Scott
3. Joe Manchin.






4. Donald Trump

whiterock said:

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4th and Inches said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

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Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.

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A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?

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I've been very open about my disdain for Trump since J6. But polls are polls, and internals are internals. And I've never allowed my personal views to taint my political analysis (or intel).

Again, I ask, do you actually think he's increased his suburban women support since J6?

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basically, suburban women dont like the current GOP canidates listed vs sleepy grandpa Biden(hes not mean)

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That graphic is not terribly strong evidence that Trump is the worst of all options.

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Well we know you believe him to be the best of all options. You've been saying that for 2 years.

Think he beats the democrat this next election cycle?

The media is in a grand conspiracy to get me to support Trump again https://t.co/d0uN4GzXNf

— ib (@Indian_Bronson) August 11, 2023

Four straight flail-posts by Mothra.


All weak misses, too.

Trump hate apparently has some really nasty side effects.

Sad.

Oldbear83 said:

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Four straight flail-posts by Mothra.


All weak misses, too.

Trump hate apparently has some really nasty side effects.

Sad.

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As expected, ad hominems that don't contain a bit of substance or refute any points - Oldbears modus operandi when his position has been made to look foolish. The irony is it's all projection.

Keep dreaming that the suburban soccer mom vote is all the sudden going to turn out for Trump. I'm sure it will happen in your dreams.

GOP 2024 candidate Vivek Ramaswamy ‘open’ to pardon of Hunter Biden https://t.co/6qUGhTLM1O pic.twitter.com/kYShRP68Sg

— New York Post (@nypost) August 12, 2023

Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Four straight flail-posts by Mothra.


All weak misses, too.

Trump hate apparently has some really nasty side effects.

Sad.

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As expected, ad hominems that don't contain a bit of substance or refute any points - Oldbears modus operandi when his position has been made to look foolish. The irony is it's all projection.

Keep dreaming that the suburban soccer mom vote is all the sudden going to turn out for Trump. I'm sure it will happen in your dreams.

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My point was that there is no compelling data to say 2020 will repeat itself, anymore than 2016 will repeat itself.

If you actually read those posts, you will see Sombear and I share common ground on poll methodology, as well as the very limited value of a poll this far ahead of the election.

You did have four straight misses Mothra, because none of your own sneering posts had anything to do with what I was saying. So all I can figure, is that you hate Trump so much that you react badly to any facts which scare you.

Once again, since you ignored it every time before, I am not voting for Trump in the primary. But right now it's clear he has a commanding lead in the GOP race for the nomination, which means we had better be ready for the possibility that he will win the nomination.

You want to just give up in that case and let Biden have another term? Or should we be discussing how to make the best of the situation, because while a second Trump term would not be as good for the US as a DeSantis administration or a Tim Scott Presidency, it would still be immeasurably better than any Democrat holding power.

And son, every time you attack me in a post, that's an ad hominem by definition. So if you don't like those, maybe you could be less of a hypocrite and stop it yourself?

Or is that beyond your capacity?

Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Four straight flail-posts by Mothra.


All weak misses, too.

Trump hate apparently has some really nasty side effects.

Sad.

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As expected, ad hominems that don't contain a bit of substance or refute any points - Oldbears modus operandi when his position has been made to look foolish. The irony is it's all projection.

Keep dreaming that the suburban soccer mom vote is all the sudden going to turn out for Trump. I'm sure it will happen in your dreams.

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My point was that there is no compelling data to say 2020 will repeat itself, anymore than 2016 will repeat itself.

If you actually read those posts, you will see Sombear and I share common ground on poll methodology, as well as the very limited value of a poll this far ahead of the election.

You did have four straight misses Mothra, because none of your own sneering posts had anything to do with what I was saying. So all I can figure, is that you hate Trump so much that you react badly to any facts which scare you.

Once again, since you ignored it every time before, I am not voting for Trump in the primary. But right now it's clear he has a commanding lead in the GOP race for the nomination, which means we had better be ready for the possibility that he will win the nomination.

You want to just give up in that case and let Biden have another term? Or should we be discussing how to make the best of the situation, because while a second Trump term would not be as good for the US as a DeSantis administration or a Tim Scott Presidency, it would still be immeasurably better than any Democrat holding power.

And son, every time you attack me in a post, that's an ad hominem by definition. So if you don't like those, maybe you could be less of a hypocrite and stop it yourself?

Or is that beyond your capacity?

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There is no compelling data that suburban moms, who have overwhelmingly voted for Democrats the last 4 election cycles, are not going to switch their allegiance to Trump? Are you serious, Clark???

Trump has NEVER attracted suburban women, as Trump supporter whiterock pointed out above, and as sombear likewise tried to explain to you. If you want to suffer under the delusion that an even less likeable Trump is going to somehow command the suburban women vote in 2024, then I suppose I've given you far too much credit. Given that you have some background in polling, it is mind boggling to me you are even arguing the point.

Of course I don't intend to give up. But I also don't intend to buy the fairytale that Trump is in a good position to win another election. He's not, as anyone who has looked at the polls and remembers 2020 should well know. You, like DeSantis, IMO, have taken the erroneous position that Repubs shouldn't be critical of Trump because he's the front runner. I couldn't disagree more with this cowardly take. We have an opportunity to do something about it in the primaries if we support the right candidates, and point out Trump's weaknesses. Saying he's off limits to criticism because we are scared of his sycophants is asinine.

Oldbear, my only personal attacks of you were in response to personal attacks of me and others. If you would stop that kind of behavior, son, then perhaps others wouldn't respond in like kind. You are ALWAYS the first poster to make it personal.

In the real world, where the real people live, he is a beloved icon. Only the rich elites and their brainwashed thrall could hate him! https://t.co/reUoDzomNA

— Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) August 12, 2023

You are arguing with yourself, Mothra, not with what I said.

And your excuses do not change - even one bit - that you were doing everything you claimed about me, only in a lot more posts.

You seem to preen yourself on boasts and brags. Not how I'd want to live, but you do you.

Redbrickbear said:

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In the real world, where the real people live, he is a beloved icon. Only the rich elites and their brainwashed thrall could hate him! https://t.co/reUoDzomNA

— Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) August 12, 2023

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Let's not get carried away …. His approval rating has hovered as low as 34% ….

sombear said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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In the real world, where the real people live, he is a beloved icon. Only the rich elites and their brainwashed thrall could hate him! https://t.co/reUoDzomNA

— Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) August 12, 2023

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Let's not get carried away …. His approval rating has hovered as low as 34% ….

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many of those people dont take surveys.. they also dont vote. But they still "support" Trump

I feel Hunter will run this time

God help us

Oldbear83 said:

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You are arguing with yourself, Mothra, not with what I said.

And your excuses do not change - even one bit - that you were doing everything you claimed about me, only in a lot more posts.

You seem to preen yourself on boasts and brags. Not how I'd want to live, but you do you.

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I think you need to change your name to ObtuseBear. Our argument began with you questioning my claim that suburban women by and large will vote for a Biden/Newsom/Democrat ticket instead of Trump. You asked for evidence of that claim, and sombear provided same. Oh I am sure you will quibble with some minor details of my characterization of our argument to try and squirm out of it (it's what you do), but that was the gist of it. So, yes, I am absolutely arguing against your claim that 2024 will/could somehow be different than 2020.

But I tell you what, if you feel that I've mischaracterized your position, feel free to clarify. The fact you have not speaks volumes.

Bottom line is you started the personal attacks, as you most always do with posters with whom you disagree, I noticed this tendency years before we became adverse on the topic of Trump these last few months. I always figured you were just a grump old *******.

sombear said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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In the real world, where the real people live, he is a beloved icon. Only the rich elites and their brainwashed thrall could hate him! https://t.co/reUoDzomNA

— Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) August 12, 2023

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Let's not get carried away …. His approval rating has hovered as low as 34% ….

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He is going to lose worse than he did in 2024. It is mind boggling to me that so many conservatives believe he is our best candidate to win the White House.

Mothra lobs more personal insults, then claims its all me.

** sigh **

Bottom line Mothra, is you decide what you want to shoot back before you even read my posts.

I expect this amuses you, but it does nothing to advance the discussion.

So, back to basics.

With the possible exception of Whitewater, I believe no one here plans to vote for Trump in the primary elections. So squabbling about Trump is really beside the point.

The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

Polls in August a year before the General Election are pretty much useless. I really should not have to remind you of that fact.

It should also be obvious that anyone trying to balance a household budget will not be happy with Bidenomics and the inflation we have endured throughout his administration. It should be obvious that Hunter's lifestyle won't sit well with anyone raising kids. It should be clear that 2024 won't be like 2016 or 2020, and it's up to us to set the mood for voters,

There's a long way to go. Don't piss your pants now.

Oldbear83 said:

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The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

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^ ^ ^ this ^ ^ ^

Doesn't matter who the nominee is. Anyone who doesn't show up to play is part of the problem.

https://instagr.am/p/CvxH43trev4

whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

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^ ^ ^ this ^ ^ ^

Doesn't matter who the nominee is. Anyone who doesn't show up to play is part of the problem.

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Those who build up retreads that have a little chance of winning are also the problem.

Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra lobs more personal insults, then claims its all me.

** sigh **

Bottom line Mothra, is you decide what you want to shoot back before you even read my posts.

I expect this amuses you, but it does nothing to advance the discussion.

So, back to basics.

With the possible exception of Whitewater, I believe no one here plans to vote for Trump in the primary elections. So squabbling about Trump is really beside the point.

The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

Polls in August a year before the General Election are pretty much useless. I really should not have to remind you of that fact.

It should also be obvious that anyone trying to balance a household budget will not be happy with Bidenomics and the inflation we have endured throughout his administration. It should be obvious that Hunter's lifestyle won't sit well with anyone raising kids. It should be clear that 2024 won't be like 2016 or 2020, and it's up to us to set the mood for voters,

There's a long way to go. Don't piss your pants now.

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Once again I invite you to clarify the point you believe I've missed. And just FYI, this is the second time I've asked. Let's see if you're capable.

You'll get no argument from me that Biden isn't terrible. But the problem with your analysis is it doesn't factor in that Trump is likewise terrible, and has even bigger issues right now than a crook for a son. How do you think suburban women and independent voters are going to feel about the numerous criminal trials that play out during the election? Trump is FAR less likeable now than he was in 2016 and 2020. That doesn't bode well for 2024.

And just FYI, while I agree with you polls can change, Trump's approval rating has remained at or below 40% for more than 2 1/2 years. Think he's going to be able to magically turn into a likeable fellow the next year?

Hate to say it, but the only hope for Republicans if Trump is the nominee is that the Dems stick with Biden, and there is some sort of economic disaster the next year. And even then, I am not sure the country will vote for Trump over Biden.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

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^ ^ ^ this ^ ^ ^

Doesn't matter who the nominee is. Anyone who doesn't show up to play is part of the problem.

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Those who build up retreads that have a little chance of winning are also the problem.

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LOL you can't deal with reality so conjure me as your straw man. "anyone who doesn't denounce Trump is part of the problem " (meaning half the GOP electorate.)

Trump seems likely to win the primary. He is running neck & neck with the likely Dem nominee. Res ipsa loquitur. We gotta win. We could do worse, a LOT worse than selecting the guy who actually does have the most support in the primary.

I might be the one guy here who cares least about who wins the GOP primary, the one guy who actually is adhering most closely to the 11th Commandment (Christie and Hutchinson excepted) and thus am a Trumpist….

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

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^ ^ ^ this ^ ^ ^

Doesn't matter who the nominee is. Anyone who doesn't show up to play is part of the problem.

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Those who build up retreads that have a little chance of winning are also the problem.

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LOL you can't deal with reality so conjure me as your straw man. "anyone who doesn't denounce Trump is part of the problem " (meaning half the GOP electorate.)

Trump seems likely to win the primary. He is running neck & neck with the likely Dem nominee. Res ipsa loquitur. We gotta win. We could do worse, a LOT worse than selecting the guy who actually does have the most support in the primary.

I might be the one guy here who cares least about who wins the GOP primary, the one guy who actually is adhering most closely to the 11th Commandment (Christie and Hutchinson excepted) and thus am a Trumpist….

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You're the poster who suggested those not getting behind Trump now are part of the problem. Perhaps if people such as yourself, who don't care who the nominee is, actually got behind a candidate who had some semblance of beating Biden now, we could head off a disaster. But instead, you continue to support (and importantly, don't criticize) retreads who simply cannot win another general election.

Yes, you are part of the problem. And you're delusional if you think Trump can/will win another general.

Prepare to be disappointed. Again.

Mothra quits on the GOP more than a year before the election.

Blames everyone else.

Here's my prediction for 2024.

Biden will not be elected president. Trump will not be elected president. Michelle Obama will change his name to Michael.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

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^ ^ ^ this ^ ^ ^

Doesn't matter who the nominee is. Anyone who doesn't show up to play is part of the problem.

---

Those who build up retreads that have a little chance of winning are also the problem.

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LOL you can't deal with reality so conjure me as your straw man. "anyone who doesn't denounce Trump is part of the problem " (meaning half the GOP electorate.)

Trump seems likely to win the primary. He is running neck & neck with the likely Dem nominee. Res ipsa loquitur. We gotta win. We could do worse, a LOT worse than selecting the guy who actually does have the most support in the primary.

I might be the one guy here who cares least about who wins the GOP primary, the one guy who actually is adhering most closely to the 11th Commandment (Christie and Hutchinson excepted) and thus am a Trumpist….

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You're the poster who suggested those not getting behind Trump now are part of the problem. Perhaps if people such as yourself, who don't care who the nominee is, actually got behind a candidate who had some semblance of beating Biden now, we could head off a disaster. But instead, you continue to support (and importantly, don't criticize) retreads who simply cannot win another general election.

Yes, you are part of the problem. And you're delusional if you think Trump can/will win another general.

Prepare to be disappointed. Again.

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Suggested? LOL I have stated that attacking Trump is a problem, but I have not remotely suggested that a contested primary is a problem, Rather the opposite.

I'm prepared to be disappointed no matter who is our nominee is. Also prepared to let the process play out, do what it's intended to do. It invariably delivers the strongest candidate in the field.

And no, pointing out the flaws in your assessments about Trump's chances is not supporting Trump. I'm pretty balanced on him, noting pros/cons. I've also been very balanced about RDS - there is much to like and I was very bullish on his team. To note that he is underperforming my expectations is not exactly a harsh critique. He has indeed under-performed and I am disappointed. He had (and still has) the best chance of beating Trump. Anyone who can do that will be a very strong candidate indeed.

Too many on our side still think we are in normal politics. Not so. We are staring down the barrel of tyranny.

As I've said from the beginning, the single biggest threat posed by Trump comes from what progressives will justify to stop him. https://t.co/yNf2vYpFtV

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 14, 2023

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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The point is how to make sure the GOP nominee, whoever it is and yes that may well be Trump, wins the White House.

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^ ^ ^ this ^ ^ ^

Doesn't matter who the nominee is. Anyone who doesn't show up to play is part of the problem.

---

Those who build up retreads that have a little chance of winning are also the problem.

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LOL you can't deal with reality so conjure me as your straw man. "anyone who doesn't denounce Trump is part of the problem " (meaning half the GOP electorate.)

Trump seems likely to win the primary. He is running neck & neck with the likely Dem nominee. Res ipsa loquitur. We gotta win. We could do worse, a LOT worse than selecting the guy who actually does have the most support in the primary.

I might be the one guy here who cares least about who wins the GOP primary, the one guy who actually is adhering most closely to the 11th Commandment (Christie and Hutchinson excepted) and thus am a Trumpist….

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You're the poster who suggested those not getting behind Trump now are part of the problem. Perhaps if people such as yourself, who don't care who the nominee is, actually got behind a candidate who had some semblance of beating Biden now, we could head off a disaster. But instead, you continue to support (and importantly, don't criticize) retreads who simply cannot win another general election.

Yes, you are part of the problem. And you're delusional if you think Trump can/will win another general.

Prepare to be disappointed. Again.

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Too many on our side still think we are in normal politics. Not so. We are staring down the barrel of tyranny.

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From which end?

Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra quits on the GOP more than a year before the election.

Blames everyone else.

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LOL. You live in a fantasy world.

Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra quits on the GOP more than a year before the election.

Blames everyone else.

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LOL. You live in a fantasy world.

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OK then, sport.

Suppose Trump wins the GOP nomination next summer.

Who do you vote for next November?

I am not saying I want Trump to win the nomination, but he is the front-runner at this time by a huge margin.

So if the Big Orange gets the nomination, who do you vote for next November?

Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra quits on the GOP more than a year before the election.

Blames everyone else.

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LOL. You live in a fantasy world.

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OK then, sport.

Suppose Trump wins the GOP nomination next summer.

Who do you vote for next November?

I am not saying I want Trump to win the nomination, but he is the front-runner at this time by a huge margin.

So if the Big Orange gets the nomination, who do you vote for next November?

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As I have said the past 2 years, Trump. And it's not even close. Anything is better than Biden. I have been very consistent on this point for years.

Now, I don't have much hope at all a less popular Trump can pull it off, which is why I argue for supporting better Republican candidates, but if he is the nominee, I will vote for him.

Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra quits on the GOP more than a year before the election.

Blames everyone else.

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LOL. You live in a fantasy world.

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OK then, sport.

Suppose Trump wins the GOP nomination next summer.

Who do you vote for next November?

I am not saying I want Trump to win the nomination, but he is the front-runner at this time by a huge margin.

So if the Big Orange gets the nomination, who do you vote for next November?

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As I have said the past 2 years, Trump. And it's not even close. Anything is better than Biden. I have been very consistent on this point for years.

Now, I don't have much hope at all a less popular Trump can pull it off, which is why I argue for supporting better Republican candidates, but if he is the nominee, I will vote for him.

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Thanks. Then we agree.

Don't support Trump in the primaries, but work a way to build support for whoever gets the nomination.

A win by any (D) means dystopia.

Trump up 48-40 over Biden with independents.

https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1691846197927969172?s=46&t=ppMxCuHFBiF2n-S1riETzw

whiterock said:

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Trump up 48-40 over Biden with independents.

https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1691846197927969172?s=46&t=ppMxCuHFBiF2n-S1riETzw

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Who is x.com? Is Elon doing polls now?

whiterock said:

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Trump up 48-40 over Biden with independents.

https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1691846197927969172?s=46&t=ppMxCuHFBiF2n-S1riETzw

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But still losing